We now move up the list to prospects #51 to #75. As with all lists, these rankings are a compilation of hands-on scouting, dialogs with scouts and industry experts, as well as statistical analysis. While I try to be logical, I have my favorites, as everyone does, and I have a tendency to stuff those higher on the list (i.e. Schoop) as well as guys that I just don't buy into fully (Cosart and Jackson).
Once again, Markus Potter and I will be doing a special podcast on BlogTalkradio, Wednesday, December 28th at 9pm EST. http://tinyurl.com/cwv2jjt . This broadcast is on the same feed as our weekly Fantasy Baseball show, which airs every Sunday at 10pm and is the #1 Sports Show on BTR.
51. Jonathan Schoop – 2B (Baltimore Orioles)
Many people are starting to call Jonathan Schoop a poor man’s Manny Machado. While Machado is ranked well ahead of Schoop, as Schoop continues to mature, the comp is starting to make a lot of sense. Schoop progressed to High-A as a 19-year old and showed a nice batting approach with an 85% contact rate and a decent 8% walk rate. Additionally, as Schoop’s 6-2 185lbs body fills out, he projects to be a plus power hitter with 20 home run power. While he stole 12 bases in 2011, don’t look for this to continue, particularly as he fills out.
52. Oscar Taveres – OF (St. Louis Cardinals)
Taveras has a great lefty hit-tool with a quick level swing that barrels the ball. While he has a very aggressive swing, he doesn't strike-out a lot. He currently has gap to gap power that should translate into 15-20 home run power at full development. The open question for the young Taveras…will a .300 average with 15-20 home run potential be enough to stick at a corner outfield or does this profile as a fourth outfielder? Remember, Taveres was one of the youngest players in Low-A and was the second youngest player to be invited to the 2011 Arizona Fall League.
53. Randall Delgado – RHP (Atlanta Braves)
With the big three pitching prospects in Atlanta all having their chance at the major leagues in 2011, it was Randall Delgado that pitched the best. At 6-3 and 200lbs, Delgado has the body type at full maturity that should allow him to log big innings in the majors. His stuff is very good as he throws a low to mid 90’s fastball to go along with a plus curve ball. His control projects to be above average, although he does struggle with his mechanics as is evidence by his 135K/57BB strikeout to walk ratio.
54. Jake Odorizzi – RHP (Kansas City Royals)
With many of the elite Kansas City prospects graduating in 2011 and some others playing poorly, Jake Odorizzi has moved up dramatically. Odorizzi is extremely athletic and posses a 92-94MPH fastball with nice late movement that allows him to pitch up in the zone. His curveball and change-up are improving and both project to be above average offerings.
55. Francisco Lindor – SS (Cleveland Indians)
In the 2011 draft, few high-school players created more late buzz than Francisco Lindor. At first it was all about his glove which projects to be plus with the ability to stay at shortstop. However, as he continued with private workouts, teams got excited about his offensive ability, particularly his ability to drive balls to all fields. Reports out of the Fall instructional league continue to be very bullish on the 17-year old with some comparing him to Jurikson Profar.
56. Nick Franklin –SS (Seattle Mariners)
At 6-1 and 170 lbs, Nick Franklin doesn’t look like a guy that can hit 20 home runs. However, in 2010 he hit 23 home runs and while he regressed to just seven in 2011, scouts believe in the power. While Franklin is an aggressive hitter, he still managed to make contact 78% of the time in 2011. The big concern is will he stay at shortstop? Many scouts believe that a move to second base will eventually occur and for the Mariners, that could cause problems as that position is currently occupied by Dustin Ackley.
57. Trevor May – RHP (Philadelphia Phillies)
The once loaded Philadelphia Phillies minor league system has become quickly barren as several major trades over the past two years were made to bolster their major league club. There are still several blue chip prospects including Trevor May, the 4th round draft choice in the 2008 draft. May has a pro body at 6-5 and 215 lbs and has swing and miss stuff as demonstrated by his 208 strikeouts in 151.1 innings in High-A. His fastball sits in the low 90’s but because of the downhill plane, will play up. He secondary pitches are improving, most notably his curve. The command still needs improvement and as with most young pitchers, will determine the speed in which he makes it to the big leagues.
58. Jarred Cosart – RHP (Houston Astros)
Jarred Cosart became more of a household name after his impressive showing in the 2011 Futures Game. In fact, that performance went a long way to him being included in the trade that sent Hunter Pence to the Phillies. While the stuff appears to be there, the results are not. In 2011, across High-A and Double-A, Cosart struck out 101 batters in 144.1 innings while walking 56. Additionally, his mechanics are not clean as he throws across his body and has significant scapular loading. Candidly, I’m not buying the package just yet and have dropped his ranking considerably from last year.
59. Archie Bradley – RHP (Arizona Diamondbacks)
While a lot of the high-school pitching hype in the 2011 draft was around Dylan Bundy, many scouts believe Archie Bradley’s upside is as good if not better. Bradley has a pro body at 6-4 and 225lbs and can light up a gun by throwing in the upper 90’s and even tapping out in triple digits. He already posses a nasty curve that when combined with fastball should result in a lot of swing and misses. Expect Bradley to start out in Low-A next year and move quickly.
60. Tim Wheeler OF (Colorado Rockies)
Taken in the first round in 2009, Tim Wheeler played poorly in 2010, hitting only .249 in the hitter friendly confines of Modesto in the CAL league. He’s turned that around in 2011 by slamming 33 home runs and batting .287 in Double-A Tulsa. His .287 average is being supported by a fairly high BABIP but when taken all together, there’s a lot to like with Wheeler.
61. Rymer Liriano – OF (San Diego Padres)
If you rate Rymer Liriano’s on his April performance, it was a failure as he flat out didn’t hit in High-A going 7 for 55. Granted it was a small sample size, but the Padres decided to move him back to Low-A where he finished 2010 (where candidly he didn’t play great) and subsequently blew-up, taking home MVP honors. Liriano has quick strong hands that allow him to move quickly through the zone and produce decent power. In 2011, he had an 80% contract rate, an 11% walk rate to go along with 12 home runs. But Liriano is really about speed, stealing 65 bases in 85 attempts in Low-A.
62. Xander Bogaerts – 2B/3B (Boston Red Sox)
The scouting reports on Xander Boagaerts are glowing. Strong hands, quick bat with power potential. As an 18-year in the Low-A SAL League, Bogaerts showed an aggressive style by striking out 71 times in 265 at bats but hit an impressive 16 home runs. Scouts also talk about his make-up and believe he will quickly figure out the strike zone and could develop into a plus hit tool. The big question is his position. He’s currently playing shortstop but will either move to 2B or 3B next year.
63. Casey Kelly – RHP (San Diego Padres)
Drafted as a pitcher/shortstop by Boston in the first round of the 2008 draft, it didn’t take long for Kelly to realize that the bump was going to be his home. Kelly has a nice arsenal with the ability to throw his fastball in the low 90’s and hit 95. He’s got an above average curve and a plus change-up. The pitchability is not yet there as the results are underwhelming based on the stuff (105K/46BB in 142.1 innings). For fantasy players, the move to Petco will increase his value.
64. Billy Hamilton – SS (Cincinnati Reds)
Billy Hamilton stole 103 bases last year. Let that settle in for a moment. We are talking game changing speed ala Vince Coleman of the 1980’s St. Louis Cardinals. If you’ve not seen Hamilton, he is rail thin and that is what has everyone nervous. The big question is will he be able to stand in there against hard throwers as he moves to the upper minors? While he strikes out a lot (26% strikeout rate), he did barrel the ball more as the season wore on, even hitting 18 doubles along the way. With his crazy speed, Hamilton might be the most intriguing prospect in all of baseball, particularly if you are a fantasy player.
65. Kotlen Wong – 2B (St. Louis Cardinals)
Second baseman are generally not born but are instead made as a result of the inability to play shortstop or sometimes third base. So it’s rare that a pure 2B gets drafted, but that is what the World Champion Cardinals did with Kolten Wong in the 2011 draft. Wong signed quickly and took advantage of his 194 at bats in the MidWest league, batting .335 with an impressive 24K/20BB ratio. He also contributed 5 home runs but with his strong wrist and quick swing, projects to have 15-20 home run power. While he doesn’t have blazing speed, he should be able to steal 20 bases as well.
66. Christian Yelich – OF (Miami Marlins)
Drafted out of high school in the first round of the 2011 draft, Christian Yelich is already showing a great approach at the plate with speed and surprising power. In Low-A, Yelich batted .312 with a 102K/55B rate in 461 at bats. While the strikeouts are a little high, it’s not bad for a teenager’s first foray into professional ball. The 32 stolen bases out of 37 shows elite stolen bases ability and the 15 home runs are also encouraging.
67. Anthony Gose – OF (Toronto Blue Jays)
Gose is another in a long-line of toolsy players that is learning how to hit...but boy are the tools good. In Double-A, Gose stole 70 bases and hit 16 home runs but struck out 154 times in 509 AB’s. Unless Gose can improve the hit tool, his staying power, no matter how good the tools are, will be difficult.
68. Will Middlebrook – 3B (Boston Red Sox)
Will Middlebrooks is a big strong athletic player at 6-4 and 200lbs with above average bat speed and power to all fields. His strikeouts were high in Double-A with 95 K’s in 371 at-bats, which if not corrected will cause concerns as he moves into Triple-A with a potential call-up to the Red Sox in September of 2012.
69. Nick Castellanos -3B (Detroit Tigers)
Signed in the supplemental round in the 2010 draft for an aggressive $3.45M signing bonus, Nick Castellanos showed the plate approach that the Tigers envisioned. In 507 at bats in Low-A, he struck out 130 times and walked 45 times. Given his size at 6-4, most believe that as Castellanos fills out, his power will increase to 20-25 home runs.
70. Brett Jackson –OF (Chicago Cubs)
The Cubs drafted Brett Jackson in the first round of the 2009 draft and saw a power/speed guy that could be a first division starter. So far, he’s demonstrated the speed and power as was evidence by his 2011 production. Across Double-A and Triple-A in 2011, he hit 21 home runs and stole 20 bases. So why is he sitting at #70? I just don’t believe in the hit tool. There’s a lot of swing and miss in his stroke as he has a definitive two stage swing. Until he adjusts the swing to make better contact, the 20/20 production will come with a lot of batting average downside.
71. Oswaldo Arcia – OF (Minnesota Twins)
Signed out of Venezuela at the ripe old age of 16, Oswaldo Arcia is starting to produce on the promise. Arcia has great bat speed combined with plus power. Elbow surgery did slow Arcia’s progression in 2011 but he was still able to put up 13 home runs in 292 at bats across Low-A and High-A. He should return to High-A to start 2012 and assuming there is no lingering problems from the elbow, he could be poised for a real breakout.
72. Corey Spangenberg – 2B (San Diego Padres)
Corey Spangenberg was taken with the #10 pick in the 2011 draft, signed quickly and then tore up the Northwest league in 84 limited at bats. His plus-speed was on full display as he managed to steal 10 bases across that span. Spangenberg projects to have a plus hit tool with a .300 average not out of the question. He makes great contact and has a great eye at the plate.
73. Cheslor Cuthbert – 3B (Kansas City Royals)
Cheslor Cuthbert was one of the youngest players in the MidWest league during 2011 season at 18 years old. He posses a lot of strength and bat speed, showing an advance approach at the plate that should project to an above average hit tool and power tool. While he played very well in the first half, he did play poorly in the second half. Was he simply tired or was there something else going on?
74. A.J. Cole – RHP (Washington Nationals)
If you look at the 4.04 ERA and 1.24 WHIP from A.J. Cole, you’re looking in the wrong place. In 89.0 innings in Low-A in 2011, Cole had 108 strikeouts in 89.0 innings and only 24 walks. Drafted in the fourth round in 2010 to a large $2M signing bonus, A.J. Cole’s velocity increased as the season wore on to sit 94-95MPH with obvious command and the ability to cut or sink the ball. His curve is inconsistent but the Nats are confident that he can spin it. With a major league body and projection at 6-4 and 180, you need to keep your eye on A.J. Cole as he moves to High-A in 2012.
75. Drew Hutchinson – RHP (Toronto Blue Jays)
Drew Hutchinson was one of the more impressive pitchers in the Toronto Blue Jays system, progressing through three levels (Low-A, High-A, and Double-A) while striking out an impressive 171 batters in 149.1 and walking only 35. Part of the success comes through a deceptive delivery as his stuff is good but not great. He has an 89-93 fastball, through deception, explodes and sinks (1.33 GO/AO) when it gets to the plate. His change-up is also above average but the curve still needs work as it has a tendency to get slurvy.
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Saturday, December 10, 2011
2012 Top 100 Prospects - #76 - #101
Today marks the beginning of my 2012 Top 101 prospects review. In this post, we'll be looking at prospects #101 to #76. Additionally, I'll be doing a special podcast on Monday, December 12th at 9pm to discuss - http://tinyurl.com/bshy6e3.
76. Bryce Brentz – OF (Boston Red Sox)
Drafted in the Supplement Round of the 2010 draft, Bryce Brentz’s calling card is his plus-plus raw power. Across Low-A and High-A in 2011, Brentz belted 30 home runs but did have some contact problems (75%) as his swing will get long as he tries to muscle up. 2012 will be an important year for Brentz as he moves to Double-A and more advanced pitching.
77. John Lamb – LHP (Kansas City Royals)
John Lamb, Danny Duffy, and Mike Montgomery were the lefties of the future for the Kansas Royals. Duffy made it to the show and had limited success, Montgomery lost his command and Lamb had Tommy John Surgery. Best laid plans… While there is now considerable risk placed on John Lamb as not everyone recovers from TJS, the talent is still there. His fastball sits at 92-94MPH with above average control and command and his curve and change-up both flash plus. Three above average pitches with above average command? I’ll take it, TJS or not.
78. Grant Green – SS/OF (Oakland A’s)
Drafted as a shortstop, moved to second, and now it appears he will make his way to the majors as an outfielder. Grant Green is a nice athletic player with an upside of a solid regular. Fans in particular got excited in 2010 when he hit 20 home runs in the California league, but for many young players, the power leaves upon promotion to Double-A. I would look for a .270 player with 10-15 home run power and 10 stolen bases.
79. Jedd Gyorko – 3B (San Diego Padres)
When you first see Jedd Gyorko, you don’t think, “WOW, that guy looks like a ballplayer?????” Short and squat at 5-10 and 195 lbs, Jedd Gyorko posses a great hit tool with nice bat speed and above average power potential. In 2011, he had an excellent 80% contact rate and an 11% walk rate. Based on his lack of athleticism, Gyorko may eventually move to a corner outfield spot. While he demonstrated power in the hitter friendly CAL league, the home runs didn't follow him to Double-A.
80. Sonny Gray – RHP (Oakland A’s)
Sonny Gray is not a physically imposing pitcher, standing only 5-10 and weighing a nice squatty 200lbs. He is though a strikeout pitcher due to his plus power curve that is clearly a swing and miss pitch. He was able to get 22 innings in professional ball during 2011, primarily in Double-A and was impressive, striking out 20 battings and walking only 6. Look for Gray to start 2012 in Double-A with a potential September call-up.
81. Derek Norris – C (Washington Nationals)
Derek Norris appears to be your prototypical young catcher working his way to the majors. He has power as is evidence by his 20 home runs in Double-A in 2011 but he also struck out 117 times in 339 at bats. I’ll save you the trouble of running for your calculator, that’s a 65% contact rate. What might set him apart and make him a solid regular major leaguer is he’s a walk machine. Last year, he had a walk rate of 20% and in 2010, his walk rate was a ridiculous 30%.
82. Mason Williams – OF (New York Yankees)
Signed as a $1.45M overslot 4th round draftee in the 2010 draft, Mason Williams was one of the poster children for Bud Selig’s clamp down on draft spending. The early results are showing that Williams was well worth the money. With plus-plus speed and very good defensive centerfield skills, the Yankees revamped his swing to increase the time through the zone in order to drive more pitches. The results in 2011 were encouraging. In 289 at bats in the NY Penn league, Williams batted .349 with a decent .468 SLG while striking out only 41 times and walking 20 times. Oh yeah, he stole 28 bases.
83. Matt Szczur – OF (Chicago Cubs)
In 2010, Szczur picked baseball over football as he signed a complicated deal with the Cubs. When drafted, scouts knew Szczur had plus-plus speed but worried that he would hit enough. In 2011, that was not a problem as he batted .293 across Low-A in High-A to go along with 24 stolen bases. His contact rate was nearly 90% but his walk rate was a paltry 6%. He’s a bit of a slappy hitter, so don’t expect a lot of power once fully developed.
84. Zack Cox – 3B (St. Louis Cardinals)
Drafted as a first rounder in the 2010 draft, Cox signed for an impressive $3M signing bonus based on his hit tool. The hit tool did not fail in his first year of professional ball, batting .306 across High-A and Double-A with a 98K/40BB in 516 at bats. The concern when he came out of college was his ability to hit for power. In High-A, he hit only three home runs in the cavernous Florida State League but upon promotion to the more hitter friendly Texas League, he hit 10 bombs. With little speed and average defensive skills, Cox will need to develop some pop in order to be viewed as a first division starter.
85. Allen Webster – RHP (Los Angeles Dodgers)
At 21 years-old, Allen Webster is already deemed to be a very polished pitcher with a 92-94MPH fastball with heavy sink that produced a very high number of ground ball outs (1.76 GO/AO in 2011). He has a plus change-up with an improving curve and a great strikeout rate of 135K in 145 innings. With his stuff and command, it was surprising that he gave up a 101 hits in 90 innings in Double-A. Should we chalked it up to a very unlucky BABIP or is his stuff just hittable to more advanced hitters?
86. Nate Eovaldi - RHP (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Nate Eovaldi had Tommy John surgery in his junior year of high school and that scared many teams off from signing him. The Dodgers took the plunge in the 11th round and have been rewarded as Eovaldi made his major league debut at the ripe old age of 21. He wasn’t overly effective as he walked 20 in 35 innings but his stuff and minor league track record predict a promising future. Eovaldi throws a heavy 92-93MPH two-seam fastball hitting higher and causing lots of ground balls (GO/AO of 1.49). His curveball is above average and even flashes plus, while his change-up is still pretty fringy. While he might have been rushed, there’s a lot to like here.
87. George Springer – OF (Houston Astros)
After Anthony Rendon, many scouts considered George Springer to be the best college positional bat in the 2011 draft. He has a nice combination of power and speed but his swing can get a little long and is therefore prone to strikeout a lot. Scouts do love his make-up, so he should take instruction well and hopefully correct both his erratic approach and propensity to strikeout. While there is huge upside in Springer, it doesn’t come free.
88. Josh Bell – OF (Pittsburgh Pirates)
Josh Bell had everyone convinced that he was going to the University of Texas to play on a partial scholarship for three years. However, a $5M signing bonus plus a fund set aside to pay for four years at a University down the road goes a long way. Bell is blessed with tremendous physical gifts, including a lot of natural raw power and the ability to make hard contact. He is an older high school player and will actually turn 20 during his first year of pro ball but is also relatively advanced for most players coming directly from high school to professional ball.
89. Josh Vitters – 3B (Chicago Cubs)
Taken #3 overall in the 2007 draft, Josh Vitters continues to confound everybody in baseball. He has one of the best right-handed strokes in any level of professional baseball, but his approach is one of the worse. Without changes, Vitters will never become the elite player that the Cubs thought they drafted. Make-up is an overused phrase, but in my mind, a player who is unwilling to take instruction and continue to believe he has all the answers is the definition of bad make-up. Most thought last year was the make it or break it year, I’m giving it one more year.
90. Robbie Erlin – LHP (San Diego Padres)
If you look only at stats, Robbie Erlin looks like the best pitcher in the minors. In 2011, across High-A and Double-A, he struck out 154 batters in 147.1 innings while only walking 16. You know you have good control when you can name the guys you walked! The fastball is only average at 88-91MPH but since he throws strikes, he gets ahead of batters and puts them away with two plus secondary pitches -a nasty curve and even better change-up. The move to San Deigo is what has gotten me excited as I believe that profile will play well in the Petco Park and the poor offensive environment of the NL West.
91. Addison Reed – RHP (Chicago White Sox)
It’s a little frightening when the best prospect in an MLB organization is a relief pitcher, but that is the sad case with the Chicago White Sox and years of playing by the slot recommendation of Major League Baseball. That said, Addison Reed is a very good pitcher. With the ability to throw in the upper 90’s with a nasty slider and also an above average change-up, Reed could eventually profile as a starter but most scouts believe he will be most effective as an “all-out” late inning reliever. Don’t be shocked if Addison Reed becomes the White Sox closer as early as 2012, he’s that good.
92. Matt Davidson – 3B (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Drafted in the supplemental round of the 2009 draft, Matt Davidson brings a combination of a quick bat with a nice approach to the plate that should enable him to become a solid regular third baseman in the big leagues. In 2011 in High-A, Davidson hit 20 home runs but did strikeout an alarming 147 times in 535. Given his quick power stroke, this is hopefully more of being overly aggressive as opposed to have a flaw in his swing. Expect Davidson to start 2012 in Double-A.
93. Tyrell Jenkins – RHP (St. Louis Cardinals)
St. Louis is stacked with elite pitching prospects and while Tyrell Jenkins might be one of the lesser known pitching prospects, his stuff and athleticism are as good as anyone in the system. Jenkins was taken in the Supplemental Round of the 2010 draft with a $1.3M signing bonus to lure him away from Baylor as a wide receiver. Jenkins sits 93-96MPH with a tight 12-6 curve and an emerging change-up. He’ll move to full season ball next year at Low-A, where more fans will get a chance to see what all the excitement is about.
94. Joe Wieland – RHP (San Diego Padres)
Wieland was the other finesse pitcher in the Mike Adams trade at the 2011 trading deadline. His fastball ranges in the 88-92MPH range with a big breaking curve. His average change-up completes the arsenal. The results in 2011 across High-A and Double A were extremely impressive with 150 strikeouts in 155.2 inning with only 21 walks. As with Robbie Erlin, high control and command pitchers with average to above average stuff can play very well in Petco and the NL West.
95. Alex Meyer – RHP (Washington Nationals)
Alex Meyer is a high risk/high reward prospect. Taken as the 23rd pick in the 2011 draft, Meyer has great stuff with a plus 94-96MPH explosive fastball to go along with a plus-plus slider with late life and tilt. The problem is the control and at 6-9, he’s got a tough job ahead of him. In fact, many scouts don’t believe his control will ever get above average and that could eventually force him to the bullpen. His stuff is elite but whether he can harness and control the stuff is where the risk exists.
96. Starling Marte – OF (Pittsburgh Pirates)
I’m not sold on Starling Marte. On the positive side, he’s got plus-plus speed that translates into speed on the base path as well as excellent range in the outfield. In fact, he’s a joy to watch in the outfield, seemingly able to catch anything hit near him. The problem is an overly aggressive approach at the plate. Marte swings at everything, walking 22 times in 536 at bats in Double-A. Fortunately he does make contact and with his speed, has a chance to reach base frequently. Throw in some above average power and Marte has a chance to be a star if he can just temper his overly aggressive approach at the plate.
97. Justin Nicolino – LHP (Toronto Blue Jays)
Justin Nicolino was the best pitcher in the Northwest League in 2011 with a 64K/11B over 52 innings. Nicolino was drafted in the second round of the 2010 draft and at 19 years old, has a nice three pitch arsenal that includes a 90-92MPH fastball with a lot of sink (1.44 GO/AO rate). He’ll pick up where he left off in Low-A to start the 2012 season. With his maturity and arsenal, a mid season promotion to High-A seems reasonable.
98. Chad Bettis – RHP (Colorado Rockies)
Bettis was taken in the second round of the 2010 draft out of Texas Tech University. He has plus velocity, sitting 93-94 and touching higher. His secondary pitches are ok but still need work with an above average curve and a below average change-up. He pitched the entire 2011 season in the hitter friendly California league and dominated, striking out 184 in 169.2 and walking only 45. They key will be the development of his change-up. If it progresses, he could be a solid #3 with #2 upside. If not, he has a chance to be a late inning reliever.
99. Jed Bradley – LHP (Milwaukee Brewers)
Taken with the #15 pick in the 2011 amateur draft, Bradley is a power lefty with a major league frame at 6-4 and 225 lbs. His fastball sits at 88-94MPH with sink; which is a broad range and therefore shows some inconsistencies. He also has a plus slider and his change-up is decent for a college pitcher, but will need to improve. Scouts love his makeup and believe he will quickly advance through the system.
100. Javier Baez – SS (Chicago Cubs)
One of the better high school positional prospects in the 2011 draft, Javier Baez has a very quick bat with plus raw power. While he was drafted as a shortstop, most scouts believe he will outgrow the position and will have to move to 3B. He got very high marks in the Arizona Instructional League, which is good as the big black mark against Baez was a questionable make-up.
101. Luis Heredia – RHP (Pittsburgh Pirates)
Luis Heredia fits the profile of a #101 ranking in a Top 100 list – a kid who has sky high potential but with tremendous risk. Heredia who hails from Mexico, signed one of the largest international bonuses at $2.6M in 2010 for Pittsburgh. He’s a big kid at 6-6 and 205lbs and has an electric fastball that can flash in the upper 90’s. He’s already proven an ability to spin a curve and his change-up has flashed plus potential. Ignore the stats in the Gulf league because at 16-years old, what can you really expect? Next year, Heredia could be a legitimate Top 50 prospect or be put in the bucket of woulda/coulda.
76. Bryce Brentz – OF (Boston Red Sox)
Drafted in the Supplement Round of the 2010 draft, Bryce Brentz’s calling card is his plus-plus raw power. Across Low-A and High-A in 2011, Brentz belted 30 home runs but did have some contact problems (75%) as his swing will get long as he tries to muscle up. 2012 will be an important year for Brentz as he moves to Double-A and more advanced pitching.
77. John Lamb – LHP (Kansas City Royals)
John Lamb, Danny Duffy, and Mike Montgomery were the lefties of the future for the Kansas Royals. Duffy made it to the show and had limited success, Montgomery lost his command and Lamb had Tommy John Surgery. Best laid plans… While there is now considerable risk placed on John Lamb as not everyone recovers from TJS, the talent is still there. His fastball sits at 92-94MPH with above average control and command and his curve and change-up both flash plus. Three above average pitches with above average command? I’ll take it, TJS or not.
78. Grant Green – SS/OF (Oakland A’s)
Drafted as a shortstop, moved to second, and now it appears he will make his way to the majors as an outfielder. Grant Green is a nice athletic player with an upside of a solid regular. Fans in particular got excited in 2010 when he hit 20 home runs in the California league, but for many young players, the power leaves upon promotion to Double-A. I would look for a .270 player with 10-15 home run power and 10 stolen bases.
79. Jedd Gyorko – 3B (San Diego Padres)
When you first see Jedd Gyorko, you don’t think, “WOW, that guy looks like a ballplayer?????” Short and squat at 5-10 and 195 lbs, Jedd Gyorko posses a great hit tool with nice bat speed and above average power potential. In 2011, he had an excellent 80% contact rate and an 11% walk rate. Based on his lack of athleticism, Gyorko may eventually move to a corner outfield spot. While he demonstrated power in the hitter friendly CAL league, the home runs didn't follow him to Double-A.
80. Sonny Gray – RHP (Oakland A’s)
Sonny Gray is not a physically imposing pitcher, standing only 5-10 and weighing a nice squatty 200lbs. He is though a strikeout pitcher due to his plus power curve that is clearly a swing and miss pitch. He was able to get 22 innings in professional ball during 2011, primarily in Double-A and was impressive, striking out 20 battings and walking only 6. Look for Gray to start 2012 in Double-A with a potential September call-up.
81. Derek Norris – C (Washington Nationals)
Derek Norris appears to be your prototypical young catcher working his way to the majors. He has power as is evidence by his 20 home runs in Double-A in 2011 but he also struck out 117 times in 339 at bats. I’ll save you the trouble of running for your calculator, that’s a 65% contact rate. What might set him apart and make him a solid regular major leaguer is he’s a walk machine. Last year, he had a walk rate of 20% and in 2010, his walk rate was a ridiculous 30%.
82. Mason Williams – OF (New York Yankees)
Signed as a $1.45M overslot 4th round draftee in the 2010 draft, Mason Williams was one of the poster children for Bud Selig’s clamp down on draft spending. The early results are showing that Williams was well worth the money. With plus-plus speed and very good defensive centerfield skills, the Yankees revamped his swing to increase the time through the zone in order to drive more pitches. The results in 2011 were encouraging. In 289 at bats in the NY Penn league, Williams batted .349 with a decent .468 SLG while striking out only 41 times and walking 20 times. Oh yeah, he stole 28 bases.
83. Matt Szczur – OF (Chicago Cubs)
In 2010, Szczur picked baseball over football as he signed a complicated deal with the Cubs. When drafted, scouts knew Szczur had plus-plus speed but worried that he would hit enough. In 2011, that was not a problem as he batted .293 across Low-A in High-A to go along with 24 stolen bases. His contact rate was nearly 90% but his walk rate was a paltry 6%. He’s a bit of a slappy hitter, so don’t expect a lot of power once fully developed.
84. Zack Cox – 3B (St. Louis Cardinals)
Drafted as a first rounder in the 2010 draft, Cox signed for an impressive $3M signing bonus based on his hit tool. The hit tool did not fail in his first year of professional ball, batting .306 across High-A and Double-A with a 98K/40BB in 516 at bats. The concern when he came out of college was his ability to hit for power. In High-A, he hit only three home runs in the cavernous Florida State League but upon promotion to the more hitter friendly Texas League, he hit 10 bombs. With little speed and average defensive skills, Cox will need to develop some pop in order to be viewed as a first division starter.
85. Allen Webster – RHP (Los Angeles Dodgers)
At 21 years-old, Allen Webster is already deemed to be a very polished pitcher with a 92-94MPH fastball with heavy sink that produced a very high number of ground ball outs (1.76 GO/AO in 2011). He has a plus change-up with an improving curve and a great strikeout rate of 135K in 145 innings. With his stuff and command, it was surprising that he gave up a 101 hits in 90 innings in Double-A. Should we chalked it up to a very unlucky BABIP or is his stuff just hittable to more advanced hitters?
86. Nate Eovaldi - RHP (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Nate Eovaldi had Tommy John surgery in his junior year of high school and that scared many teams off from signing him. The Dodgers took the plunge in the 11th round and have been rewarded as Eovaldi made his major league debut at the ripe old age of 21. He wasn’t overly effective as he walked 20 in 35 innings but his stuff and minor league track record predict a promising future. Eovaldi throws a heavy 92-93MPH two-seam fastball hitting higher and causing lots of ground balls (GO/AO of 1.49). His curveball is above average and even flashes plus, while his change-up is still pretty fringy. While he might have been rushed, there’s a lot to like here.
87. George Springer – OF (Houston Astros)
After Anthony Rendon, many scouts considered George Springer to be the best college positional bat in the 2011 draft. He has a nice combination of power and speed but his swing can get a little long and is therefore prone to strikeout a lot. Scouts do love his make-up, so he should take instruction well and hopefully correct both his erratic approach and propensity to strikeout. While there is huge upside in Springer, it doesn’t come free.
88. Josh Bell – OF (Pittsburgh Pirates)
Josh Bell had everyone convinced that he was going to the University of Texas to play on a partial scholarship for three years. However, a $5M signing bonus plus a fund set aside to pay for four years at a University down the road goes a long way. Bell is blessed with tremendous physical gifts, including a lot of natural raw power and the ability to make hard contact. He is an older high school player and will actually turn 20 during his first year of pro ball but is also relatively advanced for most players coming directly from high school to professional ball.
89. Josh Vitters – 3B (Chicago Cubs)
Taken #3 overall in the 2007 draft, Josh Vitters continues to confound everybody in baseball. He has one of the best right-handed strokes in any level of professional baseball, but his approach is one of the worse. Without changes, Vitters will never become the elite player that the Cubs thought they drafted. Make-up is an overused phrase, but in my mind, a player who is unwilling to take instruction and continue to believe he has all the answers is the definition of bad make-up. Most thought last year was the make it or break it year, I’m giving it one more year.
90. Robbie Erlin – LHP (San Diego Padres)
If you look only at stats, Robbie Erlin looks like the best pitcher in the minors. In 2011, across High-A and Double-A, he struck out 154 batters in 147.1 innings while only walking 16. You know you have good control when you can name the guys you walked! The fastball is only average at 88-91MPH but since he throws strikes, he gets ahead of batters and puts them away with two plus secondary pitches -a nasty curve and even better change-up. The move to San Deigo is what has gotten me excited as I believe that profile will play well in the Petco Park and the poor offensive environment of the NL West.
91. Addison Reed – RHP (Chicago White Sox)
It’s a little frightening when the best prospect in an MLB organization is a relief pitcher, but that is the sad case with the Chicago White Sox and years of playing by the slot recommendation of Major League Baseball. That said, Addison Reed is a very good pitcher. With the ability to throw in the upper 90’s with a nasty slider and also an above average change-up, Reed could eventually profile as a starter but most scouts believe he will be most effective as an “all-out” late inning reliever. Don’t be shocked if Addison Reed becomes the White Sox closer as early as 2012, he’s that good.
92. Matt Davidson – 3B (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Drafted in the supplemental round of the 2009 draft, Matt Davidson brings a combination of a quick bat with a nice approach to the plate that should enable him to become a solid regular third baseman in the big leagues. In 2011 in High-A, Davidson hit 20 home runs but did strikeout an alarming 147 times in 535. Given his quick power stroke, this is hopefully more of being overly aggressive as opposed to have a flaw in his swing. Expect Davidson to start 2012 in Double-A.
93. Tyrell Jenkins – RHP (St. Louis Cardinals)
St. Louis is stacked with elite pitching prospects and while Tyrell Jenkins might be one of the lesser known pitching prospects, his stuff and athleticism are as good as anyone in the system. Jenkins was taken in the Supplemental Round of the 2010 draft with a $1.3M signing bonus to lure him away from Baylor as a wide receiver. Jenkins sits 93-96MPH with a tight 12-6 curve and an emerging change-up. He’ll move to full season ball next year at Low-A, where more fans will get a chance to see what all the excitement is about.
94. Joe Wieland – RHP (San Diego Padres)
Wieland was the other finesse pitcher in the Mike Adams trade at the 2011 trading deadline. His fastball ranges in the 88-92MPH range with a big breaking curve. His average change-up completes the arsenal. The results in 2011 across High-A and Double A were extremely impressive with 150 strikeouts in 155.2 inning with only 21 walks. As with Robbie Erlin, high control and command pitchers with average to above average stuff can play very well in Petco and the NL West.
95. Alex Meyer – RHP (Washington Nationals)
Alex Meyer is a high risk/high reward prospect. Taken as the 23rd pick in the 2011 draft, Meyer has great stuff with a plus 94-96MPH explosive fastball to go along with a plus-plus slider with late life and tilt. The problem is the control and at 6-9, he’s got a tough job ahead of him. In fact, many scouts don’t believe his control will ever get above average and that could eventually force him to the bullpen. His stuff is elite but whether he can harness and control the stuff is where the risk exists.
96. Starling Marte – OF (Pittsburgh Pirates)
I’m not sold on Starling Marte. On the positive side, he’s got plus-plus speed that translates into speed on the base path as well as excellent range in the outfield. In fact, he’s a joy to watch in the outfield, seemingly able to catch anything hit near him. The problem is an overly aggressive approach at the plate. Marte swings at everything, walking 22 times in 536 at bats in Double-A. Fortunately he does make contact and with his speed, has a chance to reach base frequently. Throw in some above average power and Marte has a chance to be a star if he can just temper his overly aggressive approach at the plate.
97. Justin Nicolino – LHP (Toronto Blue Jays)
Justin Nicolino was the best pitcher in the Northwest League in 2011 with a 64K/11B over 52 innings. Nicolino was drafted in the second round of the 2010 draft and at 19 years old, has a nice three pitch arsenal that includes a 90-92MPH fastball with a lot of sink (1.44 GO/AO rate). He’ll pick up where he left off in Low-A to start the 2012 season. With his maturity and arsenal, a mid season promotion to High-A seems reasonable.
98. Chad Bettis – RHP (Colorado Rockies)
Bettis was taken in the second round of the 2010 draft out of Texas Tech University. He has plus velocity, sitting 93-94 and touching higher. His secondary pitches are ok but still need work with an above average curve and a below average change-up. He pitched the entire 2011 season in the hitter friendly California league and dominated, striking out 184 in 169.2 and walking only 45. They key will be the development of his change-up. If it progresses, he could be a solid #3 with #2 upside. If not, he has a chance to be a late inning reliever.
99. Jed Bradley – LHP (Milwaukee Brewers)
Taken with the #15 pick in the 2011 amateur draft, Bradley is a power lefty with a major league frame at 6-4 and 225 lbs. His fastball sits at 88-94MPH with sink; which is a broad range and therefore shows some inconsistencies. He also has a plus slider and his change-up is decent for a college pitcher, but will need to improve. Scouts love his makeup and believe he will quickly advance through the system.
100. Javier Baez – SS (Chicago Cubs)
One of the better high school positional prospects in the 2011 draft, Javier Baez has a very quick bat with plus raw power. While he was drafted as a shortstop, most scouts believe he will outgrow the position and will have to move to 3B. He got very high marks in the Arizona Instructional League, which is good as the big black mark against Baez was a questionable make-up.
101. Luis Heredia – RHP (Pittsburgh Pirates)
Luis Heredia fits the profile of a #101 ranking in a Top 100 list – a kid who has sky high potential but with tremendous risk. Heredia who hails from Mexico, signed one of the largest international bonuses at $2.6M in 2010 for Pittsburgh. He’s a big kid at 6-6 and 205lbs and has an electric fastball that can flash in the upper 90’s. He’s already proven an ability to spin a curve and his change-up has flashed plus potential. Ignore the stats in the Gulf league because at 16-years old, what can you really expect? Next year, Heredia could be a legitimate Top 50 prospect or be put in the bucket of woulda/coulda.
Monday, November 14, 2011
The MLB CBA and how it will effect the draft
I went out to grab lunch today and was listening to the “Power Alley” on the MLB Network on SiriusXM. The collective bargaining agreement (CBA) was the topic and the hosts, former GM Jim Duquette and field manager Kevin Kennedy were commenting positively on the proposed changes that commissioner Bud Selig is suggesting. In fact, based on today’s news report, we could see a signed CBA by Thanksgiving.
It amazes me how uninformed fans and even broadcast announcers are about how destructive these proposed changes will be to the game of baseball. It really boils down to a question of free market vs. price controls. Let me explain…
The current rule 4 draft (otherwise known as the June amateur draft) gives the first pick in the draft to the team finishing with the worst record in Major League Baseball the previous year, the second pick to the team with the second worse record, and so on. There are special rules that enable teams that loose players via free agency to get additional picks in the first round and/or receive “supplemental” picks between the first and second round. These picks can prove to be very helpful for teams, particularly small market teams like the Tampa Rays, as these teams collect extra draft picks when their current free agent players elect to sign with a different team. For instance, when Carl Crawford decided to sign with the Boston Red Sox, Tampa received the Red Sox first round pick as well as a supplemental pick. All told, Tampa received 12 first and supplemental round picks in the 2011 draft to compensate for loosing players to free agency.
Another major aspect of the Rule 4 draft is determining how much money you pay a draftee. The commissioner’s office provides guidance, known as a slot recommendation, for each team to use when negotiating with a player. However, for the most part, teams do not adhere to these rules because players want more money and have hired “advisors” to assist in the negotiation. These advisors (we’ll call them agents from here on out) help to increase the offer, resulting in the following results from the 2011 draft: Gerrit Cole signs an $8M signing bonus on a recommended slot of $4M and Bubby Starling signs a $7.5M bonus on a recommended slot of $3.25M. Is this good or bad?
Since I believe in the free market, I not only believe it’s a good idea, I think it’s mandatory. Here’s why…
Not all of the players drafted, want to play baseball as their first choice. Many are elite high-school athletes that are being heavily recruited to play college football or basketball and Major League Baseball needs the flexibility to allow teams to recruit. If you’re thinking that college baseball is an alternative, not so fast… One of the little known facts about college sports is that baseball is not in the same scholarship category as football and basketball. Since baseball is not a revenue sport, Division I Schools are limited to 11.5 scholarships for their entire team while football is allowed 85. Sure, there are more players needed for football, but the difference is nonetheless dramatic.
Take Bubba Starling, taken #5 overall by the Kansas City Royals in the 2011 draft. Starling is an elite two-sport athlete that had a full scholarship to play quarterback for the University of Nebraska. Kansas City had to go over-slot to get Starling to play baseball, otherwise, he would have gone to Nebraska. In the 2010 draft, the same thing happened with Zach Lee. Lee was headed to LSU to play football and was signed by the Dodgers for over-slot money. It doesn’t stop with football, Josh Bell had accepted a scholarship to play baseball at the University of Texas and it took a $5M signing bonus, almost $4M over-slot for Pittsburgh to sign him. The bottom line is that recruiting talent takes money and Major League Baseball teams need to have the flexibility to make these deals.
As the new CBA goes through it’s final edits, it appears that punitive salary caps will be instituted. In other words, teams will be given a budget, based on where they draft, to sign their entire draft class. If you want to spend all of the money on your first pick, fine, you just won’t have any money to spend on other players. Other proposals that are being considered involve the concept of a draft tax. A team can spend what they want, but will have to pay a tax, either in the form of a financial payment to the league or loss of draft choices in the following draft.
In whatever form the final edits take, these types of controls are a BAD IDEA. They will force teams to be more conservative and take players that they feel absolutely confident that they can sign for a reasonable amount. Additionally, players that are taken in later rounds, who are considered “tough signs” because of their desire to play college baseball, will more likely, now, play college baseball.
While this might help some players, college has a history of being unkind to baseball players, particularly pitchers. The goal of a college program is to win games and if that means abusing the arm of a 19-year old by having him throw 150 pitches to win a game in a February game, then that’s what will happen. Players will take the risk that playing college baseball will enhance their chances of landing high in the draft in three years and some will, but many will fall to college abuse and never be heard from again.
The bottom line is that teams will have less of an appetite to sign players like Bubba Starling or “tough-signs”. If they fail to sign a risky pick, they would have under-spent on the draft and for small market teams, that’s going to hurt. Why?
The Pirates, Nationals, and Royals have spent heavily over the past few years on the draft and now have three of the best minor league organizations in all of baseball. In fact, those three teams continued their spending ways in 2011 and were the top three teams in terms of spending on the draft. While a great minor league organization doesn’t guarantee major league success, it sure goes a long way.
Since draftees are not in the union, I would also surmise that the players union would prefer these tighter controls. The theory is that clubs will spend less money on the draft and more in the free agent market. However, history has proven that smaller market teams prefer spending $15M on a draft class to spread the wealth/bets on younger players instead of two aging veterans that may not provide long-term answers.
Changes to the Rule 4 draft rules, may move major league teams to invest even more heavily in the International free agent market. Young talent outside of the U.S is not subjected to a draft or any major league controls. In essence, they can be signed by any team for any amount of money. Because of this, many MLB teams have established baseball academies and scouting bureaus in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, and other Caribbean countries to recruit young talent. For instance, in July of 2011, the Texas Rangers gave Ronald Guzman, a young 16-year old Dominican outfielder a $3.45M signing bonus and Nomar Mazara, another 16-year old outfielder, a record-breaking $5M signing bonus. Next year, based on the new CBA rules, there may not be a player with a $5M signing bonus taken in the draft. Is this fair or reasonable? It doesn’t feel that way to me and I believe that the commissioner is making a wrong decision that will hurt Major League Baseball in the long run.
While most baseball fans will simply gloss over the CBA changes, it could have lasting effects to the great game that we all love.
It amazes me how uninformed fans and even broadcast announcers are about how destructive these proposed changes will be to the game of baseball. It really boils down to a question of free market vs. price controls. Let me explain…
The current rule 4 draft (otherwise known as the June amateur draft) gives the first pick in the draft to the team finishing with the worst record in Major League Baseball the previous year, the second pick to the team with the second worse record, and so on. There are special rules that enable teams that loose players via free agency to get additional picks in the first round and/or receive “supplemental” picks between the first and second round. These picks can prove to be very helpful for teams, particularly small market teams like the Tampa Rays, as these teams collect extra draft picks when their current free agent players elect to sign with a different team. For instance, when Carl Crawford decided to sign with the Boston Red Sox, Tampa received the Red Sox first round pick as well as a supplemental pick. All told, Tampa received 12 first and supplemental round picks in the 2011 draft to compensate for loosing players to free agency.
Another major aspect of the Rule 4 draft is determining how much money you pay a draftee. The commissioner’s office provides guidance, known as a slot recommendation, for each team to use when negotiating with a player. However, for the most part, teams do not adhere to these rules because players want more money and have hired “advisors” to assist in the negotiation. These advisors (we’ll call them agents from here on out) help to increase the offer, resulting in the following results from the 2011 draft: Gerrit Cole signs an $8M signing bonus on a recommended slot of $4M and Bubby Starling signs a $7.5M bonus on a recommended slot of $3.25M. Is this good or bad?
Since I believe in the free market, I not only believe it’s a good idea, I think it’s mandatory. Here’s why…
Not all of the players drafted, want to play baseball as their first choice. Many are elite high-school athletes that are being heavily recruited to play college football or basketball and Major League Baseball needs the flexibility to allow teams to recruit. If you’re thinking that college baseball is an alternative, not so fast… One of the little known facts about college sports is that baseball is not in the same scholarship category as football and basketball. Since baseball is not a revenue sport, Division I Schools are limited to 11.5 scholarships for their entire team while football is allowed 85. Sure, there are more players needed for football, but the difference is nonetheless dramatic.
Take Bubba Starling, taken #5 overall by the Kansas City Royals in the 2011 draft. Starling is an elite two-sport athlete that had a full scholarship to play quarterback for the University of Nebraska. Kansas City had to go over-slot to get Starling to play baseball, otherwise, he would have gone to Nebraska. In the 2010 draft, the same thing happened with Zach Lee. Lee was headed to LSU to play football and was signed by the Dodgers for over-slot money. It doesn’t stop with football, Josh Bell had accepted a scholarship to play baseball at the University of Texas and it took a $5M signing bonus, almost $4M over-slot for Pittsburgh to sign him. The bottom line is that recruiting talent takes money and Major League Baseball teams need to have the flexibility to make these deals.
As the new CBA goes through it’s final edits, it appears that punitive salary caps will be instituted. In other words, teams will be given a budget, based on where they draft, to sign their entire draft class. If you want to spend all of the money on your first pick, fine, you just won’t have any money to spend on other players. Other proposals that are being considered involve the concept of a draft tax. A team can spend what they want, but will have to pay a tax, either in the form of a financial payment to the league or loss of draft choices in the following draft.
In whatever form the final edits take, these types of controls are a BAD IDEA. They will force teams to be more conservative and take players that they feel absolutely confident that they can sign for a reasonable amount. Additionally, players that are taken in later rounds, who are considered “tough signs” because of their desire to play college baseball, will more likely, now, play college baseball.
While this might help some players, college has a history of being unkind to baseball players, particularly pitchers. The goal of a college program is to win games and if that means abusing the arm of a 19-year old by having him throw 150 pitches to win a game in a February game, then that’s what will happen. Players will take the risk that playing college baseball will enhance their chances of landing high in the draft in three years and some will, but many will fall to college abuse and never be heard from again.
The bottom line is that teams will have less of an appetite to sign players like Bubba Starling or “tough-signs”. If they fail to sign a risky pick, they would have under-spent on the draft and for small market teams, that’s going to hurt. Why?
The Pirates, Nationals, and Royals have spent heavily over the past few years on the draft and now have three of the best minor league organizations in all of baseball. In fact, those three teams continued their spending ways in 2011 and were the top three teams in terms of spending on the draft. While a great minor league organization doesn’t guarantee major league success, it sure goes a long way.
Since draftees are not in the union, I would also surmise that the players union would prefer these tighter controls. The theory is that clubs will spend less money on the draft and more in the free agent market. However, history has proven that smaller market teams prefer spending $15M on a draft class to spread the wealth/bets on younger players instead of two aging veterans that may not provide long-term answers.
Changes to the Rule 4 draft rules, may move major league teams to invest even more heavily in the International free agent market. Young talent outside of the U.S is not subjected to a draft or any major league controls. In essence, they can be signed by any team for any amount of money. Because of this, many MLB teams have established baseball academies and scouting bureaus in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, and other Caribbean countries to recruit young talent. For instance, in July of 2011, the Texas Rangers gave Ronald Guzman, a young 16-year old Dominican outfielder a $3.45M signing bonus and Nomar Mazara, another 16-year old outfielder, a record-breaking $5M signing bonus. Next year, based on the new CBA rules, there may not be a player with a $5M signing bonus taken in the draft. Is this fair or reasonable? It doesn’t feel that way to me and I believe that the commissioner is making a wrong decision that will hurt Major League Baseball in the long run.
While most baseball fans will simply gloss over the CBA changes, it could have lasting effects to the great game that we all love.
Sunday, November 6, 2011
AFL Rising Stars Game
As I drove my daughter home from college in a blinding snow storm last weekend, my mind kept moving to warm sunshine and watching baseball games. I’ll have to admit that it was hard to concentrate as trees were falling onto power lines that then laid across roads, but it was the image that motivated me as I my car slid for most of the four hour trip home. With that as a backdrop, imagine my horror as I sat in the scouting section in Surprise Arizona, just a week later, bundled up with multiple socks, a heavy winter coat and gloves watching the annual Rising Stars Game. The thermometer showed 53 degrees at game time but trust me, 53 degrees at night in the desert is brutal.
The Rising Stars Game is the premier event of the Arizona Fall League (AFL), which features some of the best minor league prospects in baseball. The reason I say “some” is that the AFL is primarily a hitters league as major league baseball executives do not want to send their top pitching prospects who have just thrown 130 innings for the first time in their life. While the likes of Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, and Wil Myers are here, Matt Moore, Julio Teheran, and Taijuan Walker are lounging in their parent’s basement playing video games.
That said, one thing that has become a tradition is the professional debut of some of the top pitching prospects drafted in the previous Rule 4 draft - enter Gerrit Cole, Danny Hultzen, and Jed Bradley. All three were at the Rising Stars Game and while two of them pitched well, one of them wished they had been invited to Matt Moore’s Call of Duty tournament.
In this AFL series, I’ll detail my observations of some of the prospects that I was anxious to see and some that caught me by surprise that had me spending time between innings talking with scouts and researching stats and scouting reports at night. Buckle up, here we go…
Gerrit Cole
The Rising Stars Game featured the 2011 #1 draft pick, Gerrit Cole against the #2 pick, Danny Hultzen. From a prospect perspective, this is Ali vs. Frazier – “the Thrilla in Manilla.” Unfortunately after 6 batters, you could hear Howard Cosell screaming…down goes Frazier…down goes Frazier. In warm-up, Cole looked uncomfortable. He had no command of his off-speed pitches and hung a breaking ball on the third pitch. With a two inning limit, all you could think was uh oh… Cole’s first pitch was a 96 MHP fastball for a strike, the second was an 86 MPH slider that was nowhere near the strike zone and by the fifth pitch, Kevin Mattison, a Florida outfield prospect, hit a hard base hit to the right side. Cole was clearly agitated throughout his time on the mound, constantly kicking at the rubber like it had the Pick Six Lotto numbers underneath it.
While the stuff was flat, the pitch selection was even worse. He was throwing off-speed pitches on 2-0 counts that had most scouts looking perplexed while taking copious notes. Nick Franklin then crushed a 95 MPH fastball to right center that put the score at 2-0 before some fans had a chance to take a bite of their overcooked hot dog. Five batters later, Cole was walking to the dugout, retiring only two batters - Mike Olt on a strikeout with a slider that was a foot out of the strike zone and Jaff Decker on a ground-out.
Ok, it’s one game, in fact, it was 29 pitches, and so I think it’s safe to say we can give Cole a mulligan. I did have a chance to review film of Cole earlier in the week and saw sound mechanics that produces easy velocity. I also reviewed the film with a scout who has seen Cole extensively and he illustrated why the stuff is elite but where he’s not always repeating his delivery that is leading to inconsistent command. Also, Cole’s clearly got a great pro body at 6-4 and 220lbs that reminded me of young Roger Clemens on the mound.
I did get some interesting anecdotes on Cole’s makeup. The word is that he’s a real playful character off the mound, essentially not acting like the “alpha” male you want in an Ace but when he gets to the mound, he’s all business, even combative. I’m not sure what to make of this yet, but it is one of those things you store away.
Danny Hultzen
As bad as Gerrit Cole was Saturday night, Danny Hultzen was that good. He struck out the side in the first inning and was sitting 89-93 MPH and touched 94 twice. His command was excellent and while his secondary pitches were above average, he was able to locate them very well. Essentially that was the scouting report that I received before the game and the one that you can find publically on the Internet. He’s extremely polished with good stuff, not elite stuff and should progress quickly through the Mariner’s organization.
One thing I saw and subsequently spoke with a cross checkers at the game was a “crouchy funky delivery”. It wasn’t your prototypical long fluid lefty delivery (think Andy Pettitte) but instead was a delivery that had Hultzen bending over in the beginning before opening up as he made his way to the plate. When he did open up, many times he opened too far and created the dreaded “Inverted W”. In fact, in the film I saw the previous day, you could clearly see the “W” on most pitches – not all, but most.
After seeing two innings and multiple scouting films, I see a very good pitcher in Hultzen, but not a stud. He’ll be a solid #3 with #2 upside, particularly in Safeco and the AL West. Given his ability to locate and command his pitches, I could definitely see Hultzen making his major league debut by mid 2013 if not a cup of coffee in 2012, although the Mariners will probably closely monitor his innings in 2012 given his workload over three years at the University of Virginia.
Jed Bradley
Another lefty pitcher that made an appearance in the Rising Stars Game was Milwaukee’s first round draft pick, Jed Bradley, taken #15 overall in the 2011 Rule 4 draft. Bradley’s stuff was really good as he sat 90-93 with his fastball and was able to locate all pitches very well. I spoke with a scout after his inning and he thought Bradley’s stuff was better than Hultzen’s with another scout shaking his head – NO. Then again, it was the 7th inning and everybody was freezing by then, so he could have just been shivering.
I saw a bit of an inconsistent fastball but a plus curve and an above average change-up. I counted four change up’s with one absolutely nasty, that I regrettably forgot to write down who he threw it against. The batter was clearly thinking fastball and thought he saw fastball, but was WAY out in front. Finally, Bradley’s work ethic is supposedly off the charts with scouts raving about his make-up. He takes instruction very well and wants to get better.
Milwaukee does not have a long history of developing pitchers, which is why they felt compelled to move Brett Lawrie for Shawn Marcum as well as bringing in Zack Greinke. However, I’m feeling really good about Jed Bradley’s chances and everybody should put him on their radar.
Jean Segura
Before I share my observations about Jean Segura, you need to know that I have a huge “man crush” on the 21 year old Dominican. I think he’s the real deal with a plus hit tool, plus speed, and enough range to play shortstop. I see him as a first division starter with all-star potential.
The first thing you notice about Jean Segura is the body. He has gigantic legs and in fact, they almost look too developed. He’s not a big guy, even though he was listed in the press guide at 5-11 and 160. I’m guessing he’s more 5-8 to 5-9 but unfortunately the Surprise Stadium officials neglected to put up the measuring tape you see as you leave a Convenience store… a measuring tape on the net, hmmm???
Secondly, Segura has a very wide batting stance that allows him to achieve great plate coverage but reduces his ability to hit for power. There is very little movement in both his lower and upper body, but I saw him hit ropes in both games and batting practice. While I believe the raw power is there, I see his current approach yielding 10-12 home runs as a ceiling.
The speed is 60 on a 20 to 80 scale as I clocked him on three separate occasions down the first base line to an average of 4.19 from the right side. In a close play in the Rising Stars Game, I clocked him at 4.21 down the line. I doubt he will duplicate the 50 stolen bases he had in Low-A in 2010 once he makes the Majors, but there is easy 30 stolen base potential.
Finally is the defense. The Angels decided to move Segura to shortstop this year and while a hamstring injury reduced his playing time, what I saw was pretty impressive. He made an acrobatic play in the Rising Stars Game that had the entire stadium applauding. Granted it came after a pitiful play by his counter-part, game MVP Nick Franklin, but I believe the range and arm speed will play just fine at short.
Segura should move to Double-A next year and assuming his hamstring injury is behind him, don’t be surprised if you see Segura get a September call-up in 2012. If not, 2013 could be the year where the Angels bat Trout #1 and Segura #2…for a long-time.
Next time out, I’ll provide profiles of additional players I saw in Arizona including Bryce Harper – and let me tell you…it’s time to believe the HYPE!
The Rising Stars Game is the premier event of the Arizona Fall League (AFL), which features some of the best minor league prospects in baseball. The reason I say “some” is that the AFL is primarily a hitters league as major league baseball executives do not want to send their top pitching prospects who have just thrown 130 innings for the first time in their life. While the likes of Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, and Wil Myers are here, Matt Moore, Julio Teheran, and Taijuan Walker are lounging in their parent’s basement playing video games.
That said, one thing that has become a tradition is the professional debut of some of the top pitching prospects drafted in the previous Rule 4 draft - enter Gerrit Cole, Danny Hultzen, and Jed Bradley. All three were at the Rising Stars Game and while two of them pitched well, one of them wished they had been invited to Matt Moore’s Call of Duty tournament.
In this AFL series, I’ll detail my observations of some of the prospects that I was anxious to see and some that caught me by surprise that had me spending time between innings talking with scouts and researching stats and scouting reports at night. Buckle up, here we go…
Gerrit Cole
The Rising Stars Game featured the 2011 #1 draft pick, Gerrit Cole against the #2 pick, Danny Hultzen. From a prospect perspective, this is Ali vs. Frazier – “the Thrilla in Manilla.” Unfortunately after 6 batters, you could hear Howard Cosell screaming…down goes Frazier…down goes Frazier. In warm-up, Cole looked uncomfortable. He had no command of his off-speed pitches and hung a breaking ball on the third pitch. With a two inning limit, all you could think was uh oh… Cole’s first pitch was a 96 MHP fastball for a strike, the second was an 86 MPH slider that was nowhere near the strike zone and by the fifth pitch, Kevin Mattison, a Florida outfield prospect, hit a hard base hit to the right side. Cole was clearly agitated throughout his time on the mound, constantly kicking at the rubber like it had the Pick Six Lotto numbers underneath it.
While the stuff was flat, the pitch selection was even worse. He was throwing off-speed pitches on 2-0 counts that had most scouts looking perplexed while taking copious notes. Nick Franklin then crushed a 95 MPH fastball to right center that put the score at 2-0 before some fans had a chance to take a bite of their overcooked hot dog. Five batters later, Cole was walking to the dugout, retiring only two batters - Mike Olt on a strikeout with a slider that was a foot out of the strike zone and Jaff Decker on a ground-out.
Ok, it’s one game, in fact, it was 29 pitches, and so I think it’s safe to say we can give Cole a mulligan. I did have a chance to review film of Cole earlier in the week and saw sound mechanics that produces easy velocity. I also reviewed the film with a scout who has seen Cole extensively and he illustrated why the stuff is elite but where he’s not always repeating his delivery that is leading to inconsistent command. Also, Cole’s clearly got a great pro body at 6-4 and 220lbs that reminded me of young Roger Clemens on the mound.
I did get some interesting anecdotes on Cole’s makeup. The word is that he’s a real playful character off the mound, essentially not acting like the “alpha” male you want in an Ace but when he gets to the mound, he’s all business, even combative. I’m not sure what to make of this yet, but it is one of those things you store away.
Danny Hultzen
As bad as Gerrit Cole was Saturday night, Danny Hultzen was that good. He struck out the side in the first inning and was sitting 89-93 MPH and touched 94 twice. His command was excellent and while his secondary pitches were above average, he was able to locate them very well. Essentially that was the scouting report that I received before the game and the one that you can find publically on the Internet. He’s extremely polished with good stuff, not elite stuff and should progress quickly through the Mariner’s organization.
One thing I saw and subsequently spoke with a cross checkers at the game was a “crouchy funky delivery”. It wasn’t your prototypical long fluid lefty delivery (think Andy Pettitte) but instead was a delivery that had Hultzen bending over in the beginning before opening up as he made his way to the plate. When he did open up, many times he opened too far and created the dreaded “Inverted W”. In fact, in the film I saw the previous day, you could clearly see the “W” on most pitches – not all, but most.
After seeing two innings and multiple scouting films, I see a very good pitcher in Hultzen, but not a stud. He’ll be a solid #3 with #2 upside, particularly in Safeco and the AL West. Given his ability to locate and command his pitches, I could definitely see Hultzen making his major league debut by mid 2013 if not a cup of coffee in 2012, although the Mariners will probably closely monitor his innings in 2012 given his workload over three years at the University of Virginia.
Jed Bradley
Another lefty pitcher that made an appearance in the Rising Stars Game was Milwaukee’s first round draft pick, Jed Bradley, taken #15 overall in the 2011 Rule 4 draft. Bradley’s stuff was really good as he sat 90-93 with his fastball and was able to locate all pitches very well. I spoke with a scout after his inning and he thought Bradley’s stuff was better than Hultzen’s with another scout shaking his head – NO. Then again, it was the 7th inning and everybody was freezing by then, so he could have just been shivering.
I saw a bit of an inconsistent fastball but a plus curve and an above average change-up. I counted four change up’s with one absolutely nasty, that I regrettably forgot to write down who he threw it against. The batter was clearly thinking fastball and thought he saw fastball, but was WAY out in front. Finally, Bradley’s work ethic is supposedly off the charts with scouts raving about his make-up. He takes instruction very well and wants to get better.
Milwaukee does not have a long history of developing pitchers, which is why they felt compelled to move Brett Lawrie for Shawn Marcum as well as bringing in Zack Greinke. However, I’m feeling really good about Jed Bradley’s chances and everybody should put him on their radar.
Jean Segura
Before I share my observations about Jean Segura, you need to know that I have a huge “man crush” on the 21 year old Dominican. I think he’s the real deal with a plus hit tool, plus speed, and enough range to play shortstop. I see him as a first division starter with all-star potential.
The first thing you notice about Jean Segura is the body. He has gigantic legs and in fact, they almost look too developed. He’s not a big guy, even though he was listed in the press guide at 5-11 and 160. I’m guessing he’s more 5-8 to 5-9 but unfortunately the Surprise Stadium officials neglected to put up the measuring tape you see as you leave a Convenience store… a measuring tape on the net, hmmm???
Secondly, Segura has a very wide batting stance that allows him to achieve great plate coverage but reduces his ability to hit for power. There is very little movement in both his lower and upper body, but I saw him hit ropes in both games and batting practice. While I believe the raw power is there, I see his current approach yielding 10-12 home runs as a ceiling.
The speed is 60 on a 20 to 80 scale as I clocked him on three separate occasions down the first base line to an average of 4.19 from the right side. In a close play in the Rising Stars Game, I clocked him at 4.21 down the line. I doubt he will duplicate the 50 stolen bases he had in Low-A in 2010 once he makes the Majors, but there is easy 30 stolen base potential.
Finally is the defense. The Angels decided to move Segura to shortstop this year and while a hamstring injury reduced his playing time, what I saw was pretty impressive. He made an acrobatic play in the Rising Stars Game that had the entire stadium applauding. Granted it came after a pitiful play by his counter-part, game MVP Nick Franklin, but I believe the range and arm speed will play just fine at short.
Segura should move to Double-A next year and assuming his hamstring injury is behind him, don’t be surprised if you see Segura get a September call-up in 2012. If not, 2013 could be the year where the Angels bat Trout #1 and Segura #2…for a long-time.
Next time out, I’ll provide profiles of additional players I saw in Arizona including Bryce Harper – and let me tell you…it’s time to believe the HYPE!
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
2011 Arizona Fall League Prospects - Salt River Rafters
The final installment in my AFL Prospect Review takes us to the Salt River Rafters that comprise players from the Astros, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Rockies, and Tigers.
It's a bit slim pickings with the Rafters, but here are some of the players I find the most interesting.
Detroit LHP: Casey Crosby
At the end of the 2009 season, there were high hopes for Casey Crosby developing into a top of the rotation starter following his successful recovery from TJS. While he still has top of the rotation stuff, continued elbow troubles and poor control have plagued him every since. There are rumblings that Detroit is considering moving Crosby to the pen and that is what Detroit will test in the AFL. So far, the results have not been great. In 7 innings, he’s walked 7.
Colorado 3B: Nolan Arenado
Drafted in the second round in 2008, Arenado has a plus hit tool with gap power that should eventually translate into 20-25 home run power in the majors. In High-A Modesto, he had an elite 90% contact rate and a passable 9% walk rate. In the AFL, the great hitting has continued with a .392 batting average in 74 at-bats.
Arizona OF: Adam Eaton
At 5-9, teams passed over Adam Eaton until Arizona grabbed him in the 19th round of the 2010 amateur draft. All he’s done since being drafted is hit. Across High-A and Double-A, Eaton batted .318 with a 76K/72BB rate while hitting 10 home runs and stealing 34 bases. The big problem is the defense. He doesn’t profile as a center fielder which leaves scouts believing he’ll be a tweener (aka, a fourth outfielder). All that said, Eaton continues to rake in the AFL, batting .338 with 6 stolen bases.
Colorado OF: Tim Wheeler
Taken in the first round in 2009, Tim Wheeler played poorly in 2010, hitting only .249 in the hitter friendly confines of Modesto in the CAL league. He’s turned that around this year by slamming 33 home runs and batting .287 in Double-A Tulsa. His .287 average is being supported by a fairly high BABIP but when taken all together, there’s a lot to like with Wheeler.
Los Angeles OF: Alex Castellanos
Not to be confused with Nick Castellanos, Alex is a 25 year-old late bloomer that was part of the Rafael Furcal trade. Scouts like his hit tool as is demonstrated by his .320 average and 21 home runs in Double-A. The contact rate (76%) and walk rate (8%) are both average. In 29 at-bats in the AFL, he’s batting .379 with 3 home runs.
It's a bit slim pickings with the Rafters, but here are some of the players I find the most interesting.
Detroit LHP: Casey Crosby
At the end of the 2009 season, there were high hopes for Casey Crosby developing into a top of the rotation starter following his successful recovery from TJS. While he still has top of the rotation stuff, continued elbow troubles and poor control have plagued him every since. There are rumblings that Detroit is considering moving Crosby to the pen and that is what Detroit will test in the AFL. So far, the results have not been great. In 7 innings, he’s walked 7.
Colorado 3B: Nolan Arenado
Drafted in the second round in 2008, Arenado has a plus hit tool with gap power that should eventually translate into 20-25 home run power in the majors. In High-A Modesto, he had an elite 90% contact rate and a passable 9% walk rate. In the AFL, the great hitting has continued with a .392 batting average in 74 at-bats.
Arizona OF: Adam Eaton
At 5-9, teams passed over Adam Eaton until Arizona grabbed him in the 19th round of the 2010 amateur draft. All he’s done since being drafted is hit. Across High-A and Double-A, Eaton batted .318 with a 76K/72BB rate while hitting 10 home runs and stealing 34 bases. The big problem is the defense. He doesn’t profile as a center fielder which leaves scouts believing he’ll be a tweener (aka, a fourth outfielder). All that said, Eaton continues to rake in the AFL, batting .338 with 6 stolen bases.
Colorado OF: Tim Wheeler
Taken in the first round in 2009, Tim Wheeler played poorly in 2010, hitting only .249 in the hitter friendly confines of Modesto in the CAL league. He’s turned that around this year by slamming 33 home runs and batting .287 in Double-A Tulsa. His .287 average is being supported by a fairly high BABIP but when taken all together, there’s a lot to like with Wheeler.
Los Angeles OF: Alex Castellanos
Not to be confused with Nick Castellanos, Alex is a 25 year-old late bloomer that was part of the Rafael Furcal trade. Scouts like his hit tool as is demonstrated by his .320 average and 21 home runs in Double-A. The contact rate (76%) and walk rate (8%) are both average. In 29 at-bats in the AFL, he’s batting .379 with 3 home runs.
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
2011 Arizona Fall League Prospects - Phoenix Desert Dogs
The Phoenix Desert Dogs of the Arizona Fall League have players form the A's, Jays, Indians, Reds, and Yankees. Since many of these teams have deep farm systems, the Dogs are one of the better teams to observe when in Arizona.
Here are a list of some of the more interesting prospects on the Desert Dogs.
Cincinnati Catcher: Yasmani Grandal
Grandal gets overlooked as the other catcher in the Cincinnati farm system. While Grandal doesn’t have the upside of Mesoraco, he still has the offensive skill-set to become an elite backstop and hit in the middle of the lineup. With plus power and a great approach to hitting, Grandal went through three levels in the minor league ending in Triple-A and batted .305, with a .401 OBP while adding 14 home runs. A contact rate of 74% could be better, but there is a lot to like here. Unfortunately, after an injury to his left middle finger, Grandal was shut down and sent home. The good news is it does not appear serious and he should be ready for Spring Training.
Toronto SS: Adeiny Hechaverria
Hechaverria defected from Cuba in 2010 to a lot of fanfare as scouts and fans alike wanted to see the glove that played so well on the International stage. While the glove was great, the bat was not. In 986 professional at-bats, Hechaverria is batting .255 with 12 home runs and 33 stolen bases out of 51 attempts. The approach is poor as Hechaverria is walking only 5% of the time. In 54 at-bats in the AFL, it’s been more of the same – great defense with a .241 average with no home runs or stolen bases.
Oakland OF: Michael Choice
Oakland has searched for a long-time for a middle of the order power bat and may have found one in Michael Choice. Taken as the #10 overall pick in the 2010 draft, Choice dominated the CAL league by hitting 30 home runs and batting .285. While his strikeout rate was high at 28%, Choice did shorten his swing throughout the year and dropped his strikeout rate significantly without loosing power. He’s been one of the more impressive players in the AFL, belting 6 home runs in only 51 AB’s while carrying a .333 batting average.
Jays OF: Anthony Gose
Gose is another in a long-line of toolsy players that is learning how to hit...but boy are the tools good. In Double-A, Gose stole 70 bases and hit 16 home runs but struck out 154 times in 509 AB’s. Gose started off hot in the AFL but has cooled in the past two weeks to a .260 average with 3 home runs and 4 stolen bases. However, in 77 at-bats, he has struck out 23 times.
Oakland OF: Grant Green
The future shortstop for the Oakland A’s was suppose to be Grant Green. However, the player development process is flexible and during the 2011 season, Green was moved to center field. Green is a nice complete player without one true outstanding tool. His Double-A stat line proves the point. In 530 at-bats, he batted .291 with a .343 OBP, 9 home runs, and 6 stolen bases in 14 attempts. In 66 at-bats in the AFL, Green is batting .258 with 2 home runs and 2 caught stealing.
Here are a list of some of the more interesting prospects on the Desert Dogs.
Cincinnati Catcher: Yasmani Grandal
Grandal gets overlooked as the other catcher in the Cincinnati farm system. While Grandal doesn’t have the upside of Mesoraco, he still has the offensive skill-set to become an elite backstop and hit in the middle of the lineup. With plus power and a great approach to hitting, Grandal went through three levels in the minor league ending in Triple-A and batted .305, with a .401 OBP while adding 14 home runs. A contact rate of 74% could be better, but there is a lot to like here. Unfortunately, after an injury to his left middle finger, Grandal was shut down and sent home. The good news is it does not appear serious and he should be ready for Spring Training.
Toronto SS: Adeiny Hechaverria
Hechaverria defected from Cuba in 2010 to a lot of fanfare as scouts and fans alike wanted to see the glove that played so well on the International stage. While the glove was great, the bat was not. In 986 professional at-bats, Hechaverria is batting .255 with 12 home runs and 33 stolen bases out of 51 attempts. The approach is poor as Hechaverria is walking only 5% of the time. In 54 at-bats in the AFL, it’s been more of the same – great defense with a .241 average with no home runs or stolen bases.
Oakland OF: Michael Choice
Oakland has searched for a long-time for a middle of the order power bat and may have found one in Michael Choice. Taken as the #10 overall pick in the 2010 draft, Choice dominated the CAL league by hitting 30 home runs and batting .285. While his strikeout rate was high at 28%, Choice did shorten his swing throughout the year and dropped his strikeout rate significantly without loosing power. He’s been one of the more impressive players in the AFL, belting 6 home runs in only 51 AB’s while carrying a .333 batting average.
Jays OF: Anthony Gose
Gose is another in a long-line of toolsy players that is learning how to hit...but boy are the tools good. In Double-A, Gose stole 70 bases and hit 16 home runs but struck out 154 times in 509 AB’s. Gose started off hot in the AFL but has cooled in the past two weeks to a .260 average with 3 home runs and 4 stolen bases. However, in 77 at-bats, he has struck out 23 times.
Oakland OF: Grant Green
The future shortstop for the Oakland A’s was suppose to be Grant Green. However, the player development process is flexible and during the 2011 season, Green was moved to center field. Green is a nice complete player without one true outstanding tool. His Double-A stat line proves the point. In 530 at-bats, he batted .291 with a .343 OBP, 9 home runs, and 6 stolen bases in 14 attempts. In 66 at-bats in the AFL, Green is batting .258 with 2 home runs and 2 caught stealing.
Monday, October 31, 2011
2011 Arizona Fall League Prospects - Peoria Javelinas
Part four of my AFL Prospect Preview takes us to the Peoria Javalinas. In case you're wondering, a Javalina is a skunk pig. I can't say that I've ever seen a Javalina outside of Wikipedia, but something tells me it would make a lousy pet.
The Peoria Javelinas are comprised of players from the Brewers, Cardinals, Mariners, Mets, and Padres.
Seattle LHP: Danny Hultzen
Danny Hultzen was taken with the #3 pick in the 2011 amateur draft by the Seattle Mariners. He possess a 91-94MHP fast ball with a good slider and change-up. The thing that sets Hultzen apart is his excellent command and polished approach to pitching. While his ceiling might not be as high as some of other standout pitchers in the 2011 draft, he should quickly work through the system with a 2012 major league appearance in the cards.
Milwaukee LHP: Jed Bradley
Taken with the #15 pick in the 2011 amateur draft, Bradley is a power lefty with a major league frame at 6-4 and 225 lbs. His fastball sits at 88-94MPH with sink; which is a broad range and therefore shows some inconsistencies. He also has a plus slider and his change-up is decent for a college pitcher, but will need to improve. Scouts love his makeup and believe he will quickly advance through the system.
St. Louis 1B: Matt Adams
Matt Adams is a large human listed at 6-3 and 230 lbs but could easily weigh 260-270 or more. Drafted in the 23rd round in the 2009 draft, Adams has exceeded expectations by hitting for power in both Single-A (22 home runs) and Double-A (32 home runs). The hit tool is also surprising with an 81% contact rate and 8.5% walk rate. If Pujols moves on, St. Louis could look to the lefty slugger as a solution.
Seattle SS: Nick Franklin
Big things were expected from Nick Franklin as he joined the hitter friendly California league after a 23 home run campaign in the Low-A Midwest league in 2010. However, Franklin disappointed and only hit 5 home runs but had a nice contact and walk rate. Similar results remained as he moved to Double-A. Scouts are still bullish on the potential and at 21 years-old, there’s still a lot of development left.
San Diego 3B: Jedd Gyorko
Short and squat at 5-10 and 195 lbs, Jedd Gyorko posses a great hit tool with nice bat speed and above average power potential. In 2011, he had an excellent 80% contact rate and 11% walk rate. Based on his lack of athleticism, Gyorko may eventually move to a corner outfield spot. While he demonstrated power in the hitter friendly CAL league, the home runs didn't follow him to Double-A. Gyorko is really raking in the AFL, batting .388 with 3 home runs and 1.106 OPS.
Cardinals OF: Oscar Taveras(Pronounced Oh-scar)
One of the youngest players at 19 years-old in the AFL, Taveras has a great lefty hit-tool with a quick level swing that barrels the ball. While he has a very aggressive swing, he doesn't strike-out a lot. He currently has gap to gap power that should translate into 15-20 home run power at full development. The open question for the young Taveras…will a .300 average with 20 home run potential be enough to stick at a corner outfield or does this profile as a fourth outfielder? He is currently batting .283 in 46 at-bats in the AFL.
The Peoria Javelinas are comprised of players from the Brewers, Cardinals, Mariners, Mets, and Padres.
Seattle LHP: Danny Hultzen
Danny Hultzen was taken with the #3 pick in the 2011 amateur draft by the Seattle Mariners. He possess a 91-94MHP fast ball with a good slider and change-up. The thing that sets Hultzen apart is his excellent command and polished approach to pitching. While his ceiling might not be as high as some of other standout pitchers in the 2011 draft, he should quickly work through the system with a 2012 major league appearance in the cards.
Milwaukee LHP: Jed Bradley
Taken with the #15 pick in the 2011 amateur draft, Bradley is a power lefty with a major league frame at 6-4 and 225 lbs. His fastball sits at 88-94MPH with sink; which is a broad range and therefore shows some inconsistencies. He also has a plus slider and his change-up is decent for a college pitcher, but will need to improve. Scouts love his makeup and believe he will quickly advance through the system.
St. Louis 1B: Matt Adams
Matt Adams is a large human listed at 6-3 and 230 lbs but could easily weigh 260-270 or more. Drafted in the 23rd round in the 2009 draft, Adams has exceeded expectations by hitting for power in both Single-A (22 home runs) and Double-A (32 home runs). The hit tool is also surprising with an 81% contact rate and 8.5% walk rate. If Pujols moves on, St. Louis could look to the lefty slugger as a solution.
Seattle SS: Nick Franklin
Big things were expected from Nick Franklin as he joined the hitter friendly California league after a 23 home run campaign in the Low-A Midwest league in 2010. However, Franklin disappointed and only hit 5 home runs but had a nice contact and walk rate. Similar results remained as he moved to Double-A. Scouts are still bullish on the potential and at 21 years-old, there’s still a lot of development left.
San Diego 3B: Jedd Gyorko
Short and squat at 5-10 and 195 lbs, Jedd Gyorko posses a great hit tool with nice bat speed and above average power potential. In 2011, he had an excellent 80% contact rate and 11% walk rate. Based on his lack of athleticism, Gyorko may eventually move to a corner outfield spot. While he demonstrated power in the hitter friendly CAL league, the home runs didn't follow him to Double-A. Gyorko is really raking in the AFL, batting .388 with 3 home runs and 1.106 OPS.
Cardinals OF: Oscar Taveras(Pronounced Oh-scar)
One of the youngest players at 19 years-old in the AFL, Taveras has a great lefty hit-tool with a quick level swing that barrels the ball. While he has a very aggressive swing, he doesn't strike-out a lot. He currently has gap to gap power that should translate into 15-20 home run power at full development. The open question for the young Taveras…will a .300 average with 20 home run potential be enough to stick at a corner outfield or does this profile as a fourth outfielder? He is currently batting .283 in 46 at-bats in the AFL.
Friday, October 28, 2011
2011 Arizona Fall League Prospects - Mesa Solar Sox
The third installment in our AFL preview takes us to the Mesa Solar Sox and players from the Cubs, Orioles, Pirates, Twins and White Sox. The hype is all around the 2011 #1 draft pick Gerritt Cole and he has not disappointed.
Below are some of the more interesting prospects on the team.
Pittsburgh RHP: Gerritt Cole
Cole was the 2011 #1 overall pick in the amateur draft out of UCLA. He has elite stuff with an upper 90's fastball, a nasty change-up and an improving slider. He was being compared at the beginning of the college season to Stephen Strasburg, but scouts quickly realized that while the stuff is there, the command is lacking. A 6-4 and 220lbs, Cole should have the body to endure 200+ innings at the major league level. In his highly anticipated AFL debut, Cole did not disappoint; lighting up the radar with several triple digit readings.
Chicago Cubs RHP: Trey McNutt
Signed in the 32nd round of the 2009 amateur draft, McNutt flew up prospect lists in 2010 by combining a 94-96MPH fastball with a nasty two-plane slider. High expectations turned into disappointment as a complete mechanical breakdown in 2011 resulted in a 65K/39BB rate in 95 IP in Double-A. In limited exposure in the AFL, it’s been more of the same with four walks in 9.0 IP and a .342 against. McNutt might be destined for the bullpen where can throw with maximum effort for an inning.
Pittsburgh OF: Robbie Grossman
Grossman has lots of average to above average tools, but doesn’t have that one tool that scouts can call elite. He does have a tremendous batting eye and approach which resulted in 104 walks in 490 at-bats in High-A. Roll it all together and his stat line this year was 13 home runs, 24 stolen bases while batting .294. Grossman has continued to hit in the AFL, batting .377 with 6 home runs and maybe the elite tool that he really has is that he can flat out play.
Minnesota OF: Aaron Hicks
Scouts fall in love with tools and Aaron Hicks has a ton of them. The problem is his ability to hit has yet to catch up to his athleticism. Part of the problem is the 78 walks he took in 443 at-bats this year in the Class-A Florida State League. Scouts look for aggressive hitters with a good eye but Hicks is just passive at the plate. He doesn’t swing at good pitches and then gets himself into poor hitting counts resulting in weak contact. In the final two months of the season, Hicks batted a paltry .195. At 22 years-old and likely to repeat Single-A, Hicks needs to start figuring things out. So far in the AFL, it’s more of the same – 59 at-bats, 10 walks and a .254 average but with 3 home runs and 3 stolen bases.
Chicago Cubs 3B: Josh Vitters
Taken as the #3 overall pick in the 2007 amateur draft, Josh Vitters has a beautiful right-handed stroke that makes elite contact (85-87%). His power potential is average to above average. The main problem with Vitters is he swings at everything, walking 22 times in 488 plate appearance. Additionally, because his approach is so poor, he swings at many bad pitches and much of the contact he makes is weak. His focus at the AFL is patience and so far, he’s doing well. In 58 at-bats, he’s batting .328 with 2 home runs and 4 walks. There might be hope here.
Below are some of the more interesting prospects on the team.
Pittsburgh RHP: Gerritt Cole
Cole was the 2011 #1 overall pick in the amateur draft out of UCLA. He has elite stuff with an upper 90's fastball, a nasty change-up and an improving slider. He was being compared at the beginning of the college season to Stephen Strasburg, but scouts quickly realized that while the stuff is there, the command is lacking. A 6-4 and 220lbs, Cole should have the body to endure 200+ innings at the major league level. In his highly anticipated AFL debut, Cole did not disappoint; lighting up the radar with several triple digit readings.
Chicago Cubs RHP: Trey McNutt
Signed in the 32nd round of the 2009 amateur draft, McNutt flew up prospect lists in 2010 by combining a 94-96MPH fastball with a nasty two-plane slider. High expectations turned into disappointment as a complete mechanical breakdown in 2011 resulted in a 65K/39BB rate in 95 IP in Double-A. In limited exposure in the AFL, it’s been more of the same with four walks in 9.0 IP and a .342 against. McNutt might be destined for the bullpen where can throw with maximum effort for an inning.
Pittsburgh OF: Robbie Grossman
Grossman has lots of average to above average tools, but doesn’t have that one tool that scouts can call elite. He does have a tremendous batting eye and approach which resulted in 104 walks in 490 at-bats in High-A. Roll it all together and his stat line this year was 13 home runs, 24 stolen bases while batting .294. Grossman has continued to hit in the AFL, batting .377 with 6 home runs and maybe the elite tool that he really has is that he can flat out play.
Minnesota OF: Aaron Hicks
Scouts fall in love with tools and Aaron Hicks has a ton of them. The problem is his ability to hit has yet to catch up to his athleticism. Part of the problem is the 78 walks he took in 443 at-bats this year in the Class-A Florida State League. Scouts look for aggressive hitters with a good eye but Hicks is just passive at the plate. He doesn’t swing at good pitches and then gets himself into poor hitting counts resulting in weak contact. In the final two months of the season, Hicks batted a paltry .195. At 22 years-old and likely to repeat Single-A, Hicks needs to start figuring things out. So far in the AFL, it’s more of the same – 59 at-bats, 10 walks and a .254 average but with 3 home runs and 3 stolen bases.
Chicago Cubs 3B: Josh Vitters
Taken as the #3 overall pick in the 2007 amateur draft, Josh Vitters has a beautiful right-handed stroke that makes elite contact (85-87%). His power potential is average to above average. The main problem with Vitters is he swings at everything, walking 22 times in 488 plate appearance. Additionally, because his approach is so poor, he swings at many bad pitches and much of the contact he makes is weak. His focus at the AFL is patience and so far, he’s doing well. In 58 at-bats, he’s batting .328 with 2 home runs and 4 walks. There might be hope here.
Thursday, October 27, 2011
2011 Arizona Fall League Prospects - Surprise Saguros
Part 2 takes us to the Surprise Saguros and players from the Braves, Marlins, Rays, Rangers, and Royals. The depth of the squad is decent in prospects but definitely a step down from the Scottsdale team.
Below are some of the more interesting prospects on the team.
Texas RHP: Neil Ramirez
Promoted from Single-A to Triple-A this year, Ramirez has started to show why he was a supplemental pick in the 2007 draft. Ramirez has put things together this year with a fastball that sits 93-94MPH, a plus curve and an above average change-up. There is definitely potential for Ramirez to make the starting rotation in 2012 or be one of the first callups.
Atlanta catcher: Christian Bethancourt
Scouts are excited about the defensive capability of Bethancourt as he threw out 47% of base runners in the Carolina league. The question has always been…will he hit enough? He has good hand-eye coordination and some raw power but is very aggressive at the plate. In 166 AB’s in the Carolina league, he walked 3 times. He’s batting .333 in 36 AB’s but does have a walk in the AFL.
Tampa SS: Tim Beckham
Tim Beckham was the #1 overall pick in the 2008 amateur draft by the Tampa Rays and has not yet lived up to expectations. He started to display some power this year, hitting 12 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A where he also added 17 stolen bases. Scouts still see the tools and he is only 21 years old. He’s batting .260 with 2 home runs and 3 stolen bases in the AFL.
Texas OF: Leonys Martin
I didn’t necessarily believe the hype surrounding the signing of Martin, but clearly he has a plus hit tool with above average speed and power. In 302 at-bats in the minors, Martin had an 88% contact rate to go along with a 9% walk rate. He also managed to steal 19 bases but did get thrown out 11 times. He’s had limited at-bats so far in the AFL.
Royals OF: Wil Myers
A nasty knee infection slowed the development for Wil Myers in 2011, but the hit tool remains solid. While the move to the outfield will accelerate his path to the majors, the dream of an elite hitting prospect behind the plate is gone. In many 2011 pre-season list, Myers was a top 20 prospect but based on his 2011 season, his ranking could very well fall. However, don’t be fooled, Myers has tremendous upside and he’s playing very well so far in the AFL, batting .396 with 2 home runs in 48 at-bats.
Marlins 3B: Matt Dominguez
Dominguez possess one of the best gloves at any position in the minors but the inability to hit off-speed pitches as well as injuries continue to slow the progress of Dominguez to the big league. His start to the AFL has also been slow, batting .227 in a limited sample size of 44 at-bats with 2 home runs.
Texas 3B: Mike Olt
Mike Olt is strong and selective at the plate but needs to cut down on the strikeouts. Unfortunately, a broken collar bone in June retarded his growth, so his involvement in the AFL is important. So far in the AFL, he’s batting .291 with a league leading 6 home runs.
Below are some of the more interesting prospects on the team.
Texas RHP: Neil Ramirez
Promoted from Single-A to Triple-A this year, Ramirez has started to show why he was a supplemental pick in the 2007 draft. Ramirez has put things together this year with a fastball that sits 93-94MPH, a plus curve and an above average change-up. There is definitely potential for Ramirez to make the starting rotation in 2012 or be one of the first callups.
Atlanta catcher: Christian Bethancourt
Scouts are excited about the defensive capability of Bethancourt as he threw out 47% of base runners in the Carolina league. The question has always been…will he hit enough? He has good hand-eye coordination and some raw power but is very aggressive at the plate. In 166 AB’s in the Carolina league, he walked 3 times. He’s batting .333 in 36 AB’s but does have a walk in the AFL.
Tampa SS: Tim Beckham
Tim Beckham was the #1 overall pick in the 2008 amateur draft by the Tampa Rays and has not yet lived up to expectations. He started to display some power this year, hitting 12 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A where he also added 17 stolen bases. Scouts still see the tools and he is only 21 years old. He’s batting .260 with 2 home runs and 3 stolen bases in the AFL.
Texas OF: Leonys Martin
I didn’t necessarily believe the hype surrounding the signing of Martin, but clearly he has a plus hit tool with above average speed and power. In 302 at-bats in the minors, Martin had an 88% contact rate to go along with a 9% walk rate. He also managed to steal 19 bases but did get thrown out 11 times. He’s had limited at-bats so far in the AFL.
Royals OF: Wil Myers
A nasty knee infection slowed the development for Wil Myers in 2011, but the hit tool remains solid. While the move to the outfield will accelerate his path to the majors, the dream of an elite hitting prospect behind the plate is gone. In many 2011 pre-season list, Myers was a top 20 prospect but based on his 2011 season, his ranking could very well fall. However, don’t be fooled, Myers has tremendous upside and he’s playing very well so far in the AFL, batting .396 with 2 home runs in 48 at-bats.
Marlins 3B: Matt Dominguez
Dominguez possess one of the best gloves at any position in the minors but the inability to hit off-speed pitches as well as injuries continue to slow the progress of Dominguez to the big league. His start to the AFL has also been slow, batting .227 in a limited sample size of 44 at-bats with 2 home runs.
Texas 3B: Mike Olt
Mike Olt is strong and selective at the plate but needs to cut down on the strikeouts. Unfortunately, a broken collar bone in June retarded his growth, so his involvement in the AFL is important. So far in the AFL, he’s batting .291 with a league leading 6 home runs.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
2011 Arizona Fall League Prospects - Scottsdale Scorpions
I'll be doing a series of six blog posts over the next week to highlight some of the best prospects participating in the Airzona Fall League (AFL) this year. For those of you not familiar with the AFL, it's a league that was established to allow major league baseball teams a venue to send their top prospects. Since all the stadiums in the Phoenix area are close together, it's a great opportunity to see dozens of top prospects over the course of the two months season.
Given the start date of early October, the AFL has turned primarily into a hitters league as teams are reluctant to send young pitchers who have already thrown 120+ innings. There are exceptions as many of the top college pitchers drafted in the June amateur draft are competing. For instance: Gerritt Cole, Danny Hultzen, and Matt Purke made their professional debut during this year's AFL.
We start the series off with the dream team this year, the Scottsdale Scorpions. The Scorpions are comprised of players from the Angels, Giants, Nationals, Phillies, and Red Sox. So for two months, we get to see Bryce Harper and Mike Trout playing in the same outfield.
Here's a breakdown of the top eight players on the team.
Washington LHP: Matt Purke
Matt Purke was hoping to be one of the top picks in the 2011 amateur draft but bursitis in his pitching shoulder zapped his velocity and by the spring, his fastball was sitting in the upper 80’s. The Nationals believe they got a bargain by selecting Purke in the 3rd round, but advisor Scott Boras, still managed to get him a major league deal with a $2.8M signing bonus. If healthy, Purke has elite stuff with a fastball that sits 92-94, an above average two-plane slider and a work-in-progress change-up. All that said, the start to the AFL has not been good for Purke. In 2.1 innings, he’s given up 6 runs including a home run. More importantly, his fastball has been flat and sitting at 90-92MPH.
Washington Catcher: Derek Norris
Derek Norris strikes out a ton and walks a ton but he’s a catcher with power, so that has a tendency to make him relevant. In Double-A, Norris had a 65% contact rate and 23% walk rate, but you add it all up and you get a .210 batting average. He has improved his defense considerably this year, so his offene will not have to carry him as much.
Boston 3B: Will Middlebrooks
Will Middlebrooks is a big strong athletic player at 6-4 and 200lbs with above average bat speed and power to all fields. His strikeouts were high in Double-A with 95 K’s in 371 at-bats, which if not corrected will cause concerns as he moves into Triple-A with a potential call-up to the Red Sox in September of 2012. In 44 at-bats in the AFL, Middlebrooks is batting .227 with 3 home runs and 15 strikeouts.
San Francisco SS: Joe Panik
San Francisco went conservative in the 2011 draft and selected shortstop Joe Panik with the 29th overall pick. Panik signed early and headed off to the short-season Northwest league, raked, and won the MVP of the league batting .341 with 6 home runs and 13 stolen bases in 270 at-bats. Most impressive is he had more walks than strikeouts (25K/28BB). Scouts are anxious to see what he can do in the AFL against more advance pitching. So far in 41 at-bats, he’s batting .244 but with only three strikeouts and five walks. Interesting to say the least.
Los Angeles SS: Jean Segura
Hamstring problems hindered the explosive Jean Segura this year but there is a lot of talent in the 21-year old Dominican shortstop. He projects as a plus hit tool with great plate discipline, a plus runner, and a plus defender at either SS or 2B. His power is emerging, with a 15-20 home run production not out of the question. Fully healed, Segura is batting .325 in 40 at-bats in the early going in the AFL.
San Francisco OF: Gary Brown
If you’re looking for a future MLB stolen base champion, it could very well be Gary Brown. Brown has blazing 80-grade speed and amassed 53 steals on 72 attempts in High-A this year. His batting approach has turned out to better than scouts predicted showing decent plate discipline (8.0 BB rate). Brown will likely start the 2012 season in Double-A but there are rumors that he will skip directly to Triple-A.
Washington OF: Bryce Harper
Listed by many as the #1 or #1a prospect in all of baseball, Harper has true 80 grade raw power that could translate into 40+ home runs in the majors. He’ll have decent speed initially (10-15 stolen bases per year) but as the body fills out, the speed will diminish. Make-up is still a question, but A-Rod is not the most pleasant guy and has 600 home runs.
Los Angeles OF: Mike Trout
Listed by many as the #1 or #1a prospect in all of baseball, Trout posses 80 grade speed with a plus bat, plus defensive skills, and growing power. A scary comp is Carl Crawford with more power or Grady Sizemore (circa 2008) with a .300 batting average. His make-up is off the charts as is illustrated by his participation in the AFL. After a long season that included significant playing time in the majors in September, Trout is here.
Given the start date of early October, the AFL has turned primarily into a hitters league as teams are reluctant to send young pitchers who have already thrown 120+ innings. There are exceptions as many of the top college pitchers drafted in the June amateur draft are competing. For instance: Gerritt Cole, Danny Hultzen, and Matt Purke made their professional debut during this year's AFL.
We start the series off with the dream team this year, the Scottsdale Scorpions. The Scorpions are comprised of players from the Angels, Giants, Nationals, Phillies, and Red Sox. So for two months, we get to see Bryce Harper and Mike Trout playing in the same outfield.
Here's a breakdown of the top eight players on the team.
Washington LHP: Matt Purke
Matt Purke was hoping to be one of the top picks in the 2011 amateur draft but bursitis in his pitching shoulder zapped his velocity and by the spring, his fastball was sitting in the upper 80’s. The Nationals believe they got a bargain by selecting Purke in the 3rd round, but advisor Scott Boras, still managed to get him a major league deal with a $2.8M signing bonus. If healthy, Purke has elite stuff with a fastball that sits 92-94, an above average two-plane slider and a work-in-progress change-up. All that said, the start to the AFL has not been good for Purke. In 2.1 innings, he’s given up 6 runs including a home run. More importantly, his fastball has been flat and sitting at 90-92MPH.
Washington Catcher: Derek Norris
Derek Norris strikes out a ton and walks a ton but he’s a catcher with power, so that has a tendency to make him relevant. In Double-A, Norris had a 65% contact rate and 23% walk rate, but you add it all up and you get a .210 batting average. He has improved his defense considerably this year, so his offene will not have to carry him as much.
Boston 3B: Will Middlebrooks
Will Middlebrooks is a big strong athletic player at 6-4 and 200lbs with above average bat speed and power to all fields. His strikeouts were high in Double-A with 95 K’s in 371 at-bats, which if not corrected will cause concerns as he moves into Triple-A with a potential call-up to the Red Sox in September of 2012. In 44 at-bats in the AFL, Middlebrooks is batting .227 with 3 home runs and 15 strikeouts.
San Francisco SS: Joe Panik
San Francisco went conservative in the 2011 draft and selected shortstop Joe Panik with the 29th overall pick. Panik signed early and headed off to the short-season Northwest league, raked, and won the MVP of the league batting .341 with 6 home runs and 13 stolen bases in 270 at-bats. Most impressive is he had more walks than strikeouts (25K/28BB). Scouts are anxious to see what he can do in the AFL against more advance pitching. So far in 41 at-bats, he’s batting .244 but with only three strikeouts and five walks. Interesting to say the least.
Los Angeles SS: Jean Segura
Hamstring problems hindered the explosive Jean Segura this year but there is a lot of talent in the 21-year old Dominican shortstop. He projects as a plus hit tool with great plate discipline, a plus runner, and a plus defender at either SS or 2B. His power is emerging, with a 15-20 home run production not out of the question. Fully healed, Segura is batting .325 in 40 at-bats in the early going in the AFL.
San Francisco OF: Gary Brown
If you’re looking for a future MLB stolen base champion, it could very well be Gary Brown. Brown has blazing 80-grade speed and amassed 53 steals on 72 attempts in High-A this year. His batting approach has turned out to better than scouts predicted showing decent plate discipline (8.0 BB rate). Brown will likely start the 2012 season in Double-A but there are rumors that he will skip directly to Triple-A.
Washington OF: Bryce Harper
Listed by many as the #1 or #1a prospect in all of baseball, Harper has true 80 grade raw power that could translate into 40+ home runs in the majors. He’ll have decent speed initially (10-15 stolen bases per year) but as the body fills out, the speed will diminish. Make-up is still a question, but A-Rod is not the most pleasant guy and has 600 home runs.
Los Angeles OF: Mike Trout
Listed by many as the #1 or #1a prospect in all of baseball, Trout posses 80 grade speed with a plus bat, plus defensive skills, and growing power. A scary comp is Carl Crawford with more power or Grady Sizemore (circa 2008) with a .300 batting average. His make-up is off the charts as is illustrated by his participation in the AFL. After a long season that included significant playing time in the majors in September, Trout is here.
Friday, July 15, 2011
Mid season Top 50 Prospects
1. Mike Trout – OF (Angels)
Trout posses 80 grade speed with a plus bat, plus defensive skills, and growing power. His make-up is off the charts. A scary comp is Carl Crawford with more power or Grady Sizemore (circa 1998) with a .300 average.
2. Bryce Harper – OF (Nationals)
Harper has true 80 grade raw power that could translate into 40+ home runs in the majors. He’ll have decent speed initially (10-15 stolen bases per year) but as the body fills out, the speed will diminish. Make-up is still a question, but A-Rod is not the most pleasant guy and has 600 home runs.
3. Julio Teheran – RHP (Braves)
The Braves have been very aggressive with Julio Teheran’s development, moving him quickly through the organization and even starting him twice this year in the majors. Both of those starts were sub-optimal and illustrates while Teheran is very advanced at age 20, he still has room for improvement. Some have even started to slightly sour on Teheran’s upside and while his breaking ball is average at best, his fastball, change-up and command are all plus. Invest.
4. Matt Moore – LHP (Rays)
Moore has been moving up scouting charts this year as lefties who can throw in the upper 90’s don’t grow on trees. He has a remarkable easy motion with great movement and rapidly evolving secondary pitches. The only question left is will the Rays treat him like David Price and move him up quickly or hold him back like Desmond Jennings? I'm guessing the former.
5. Shelby Miller – RHP (Cardinals)
Recently promoted to Double A, Miller has a 93-95 MPH fastball with an above average curve. The command is still developing. There’s a lot to like with Miller and along with Julio Teheran, is the best right-handed pitching prospect in the minors.
6. Jesus Montero – C/DH (Yankees)
Has not had a very good season but still possess a plus hit tool and power. Will probably not stick as a catcher and may ultimately wind up as a DH. Could be traded at the deadline.
7. Brett Lawrie – 3B (Blue Jays)
Was on the verge of being called up when a HBP broke his hand. Above average power, speed, and hit tool to go along with a hitters park in Toronto will make Lawrie a potent #3 hitter.
8. Manny Machado – SS (Orioles)
Machado’s combines a great plate approach (25K/23BB in Low-A), along with above average power and speed to form a scary package of a future all-star shortstop. Remember, this kid just turned 19 years old. Invest.
9. Carlos Martinez – RHP (Cardinals)
Incredible young talented 19-year old with an explosive fastball that reaches the upper 90’s with late movement. Improving curve and an emerging change-up have scouts excited. Command not there yet. Potential ace in the making.
10. Brandon Belt – 1B/OF (Giants)
First attempt in the majors resulted in an average below the Mendosa line. Second attempt resulted in a broken wrist. I’m guessing the third attempt will be the charm, although the recovery from his broken wrist could limit his power. Great approach and plate discipline combined with a nice level swing with wiry strength should translate into a .300 average and 20-25 home run power.
11. Devin Mesoraco – C (Reds)
Major league ready and just waiting on the Reds to move Ramon Hernandez. 80% contact rate and a 12% walk rate with nine home runs in AAA.
12. Jurickson Profar – SS (Rangers)
Profar is shooting up prospects list with great plate discipline 37K/41BB rate, power, speed, and great defensive skills. Look for the Rangers to move Andrus in the next two years to pave the way for Profar – he’s that good.
13. Martin Perez – LHP (Rangers)
Recently promoted to AAA, Perez posses three plus pitches that will play very well once he’s moved to Arlington next year. While he’s undersized at 6-0” and 180 lbs, he posses great mechanics that should enable him to keep his velo deep into games.
14. Jameson Taillon – RHP (Pirates)
The Pirates are taking it very easy with their prized prospect as he’s been limited to a maximum of 5 IP pitched per outing this year. At 6’ 6” and 220lbs, sitting in the mid-90’s with a plus curve ball already, Taillon has future Ace written all over him.
15. Jacob Turner – RHP (Tigers)
Tall projectable pitcher with smooth mechanics with great velocity (94MPH-96MPH) and the ability to spin a curve. Change-up is improving and while only 20, look for the Tigers to move him to the majors later this year.
16. Desmond Jennings – OF (Rays)
Maybe Jennings will be called up in time to make the MLB Senior Tour. Home runs are increasing, speed is there as well as plate discipline, but something is missing. Make-up is the only thing left. Keep believing.
17. Manny Banuelos – LHP (Yankees)
Banuelos continues to get a lot of swings and misses striking out 80 in 79.0 innings this year but his control has not matched as he’s walked 40. Velocity still sits 93-95 and touching 97. Still a lot to like here.
18. Wil Myers – OF (Royals)
Nasty knee infection has caused slower development for Myers but hit tool remains solid. Move to the outfield will accelerate his path to the majors but the dream of an elite hitting prospect behind the plate is gone. Continue to invest.
19. Hak-Ju Lee – SS (Rays)
Chris Archer was supposed to be the center piece of the Matt Garza trade but Hak-Ju Lee has surpassed him. Nice plate discipline and patience to go with plus speed and defensive ability should make Lee a solid regular or more for years to come.
20. Arodys Vizcaino – RHP (Braves)
The centerpiece of the Javier Vazquez trade is starting to pay-off for the Braves. Combines plus velocity that sits 93-94 and hitting 97 MPH with the ability to command the fastball. Breaking ball now above average and improving. Change-up still emerging. Hopefully elbow problems are behind him.
21. Jarred Cosart – RHP (Phillies)
Created a lot of buzz at the Futures game with a filthy inning of mid 90’s heat with late movement. Still throws across his body which will put a lot of strain on his shoulder and lead to downstream injuries, but the stuff is there.
22. Jean Segura – SS (Angels)
Hamstring problems have hindered the explosive Jean Segura this year but there is a lot of talent in the 21-year old Dominican shortstop. Projects as a plus hit tool with great plate discipline, a plus runner, and a plus defender at either SS or 2B. Power is emerging and 15-20 home run power is not out of the question.
23. Tyler Skaggs – LHP (Diamondbacks)
Tall and projectable, there’s a lot to dream on with Skaggs. Velocity has ticked up a bit since last year, but at 6’ 4”, should still have some projection left. Nice 12-6 classic curve that he can control. At only 20, has a chance to develop into a solid #2.
24. Neil Ramirez – RHP (Rangers)
Promoted from Single-A to AAA this year, Ramirez has started to show why he was a supplemental pick in the 2007 draft. Ramirez has put things together this year with a fastball that sits 93-94MPH, a plus curve and an above average change-up. Should see a cup of coffee this year with the potential to make the starting rotation in 2012.
25. Mike Montgomery – LHP (Royals)
Montgomery has not had the year that everyone expected. Command has been the problem and one wonders if there is an hidden injury. Still has the stuff to be a top of the rotation starter and has shown improvement over the past couple of starts.
26. Matt Harvey – RHP (Mets)
The concerns of overuse in college have subsided and the Mets look like they’ve gotten an excellent front of the rotation arm in the 2010 draft. Harvey sits 93-95 with nice spin on his breaking ball. His change-up is not there yet but should develop as he moves through the Mets organization
27. Jarrod Parker – RHP (Diamondbacks)
The Diamondbacks are taking it very slowly with Jarrod Parker as he recovers from TJS. Limited to 5.0 innings per game, Parker has shown his velocity has returned and over the past month, we are starting to see the command return. He still has elite stuff and should start to make noise in Phoenix in 2012.
28. Taijuan Walker – RHP (Mariners)
In next year’s mid-season update, Taijuan Walker could be the #1 pitcher on the list – he has that much talent and is only 18-years old. Walker sits in the mid 90’s touching higher with a nasty power curve. Throw-in the pitching venue of Seattle and Walker could be a future ace. Invest heavily.
29. Leonys Martin – OF (Rangers)
I didn’t necessarily believe the hype surrounding the signing of Martin, but clearly he has a plus hit tool with above average speed and power. He’s been recently promoted to AAA and may have an impact this year with the Rangers unless you believe Endy Chavez and Julio Borbon will block him.
30. Travis D’Arnaud – C (Blue Jays)
D’Arnaud is quietly having a nice season in AA New Hampshire with an 80% contact rate, 12% walk rate and 12 bombs. He doesn’t have the raw power of major league incumbent J.P Arencibia, but his hit tool is superior. D’Arnaud or Arencibia may ultimately become a trade chip.
31. Drew Pomeranz – LHP (Indians)
Recently promoted to Double A, Pomeranz dominated High-A with a 95K/32BB ratio over 75 innings. Still projects to be a nice mid-rotation starter.
32. Jon Singleton – 1B (Phillies)
The Phillies single A Clearwater team is stacked with excellent prospects like Jon Singleton. He posses great raw strength with quick hands and nice plate discipline for a 19-year old - walking 48 times in 271 AB’s. His biggest problem is Ryan Howard. Hopefully Ryan Howard won’t become his Jim Thome.
33. Jason Kipnis – 2B (Indians)
Jason Kipnis turning on a tough 95 MPH inside pitch thrown by uber prospect Julio Teheran during the Futures game illustrated the type of potential he has. Blessed with strong and quick hands, Kipnis should hit for a .280 average with 12-15 home run power. At 24-years old, he’s ready for the show.
34. Gary Brown – OF (Giants)
If you’re looking for a future MLB steal champion, it could very well be Gary Brown. Brown has blazing 80-grade speed and has amassed 38 steals on 51 attempts in High-A this year. His batting approach has turned out to better than scouts predicted showing decent plate discipline (8.0 BB rate). The next level will be lever on whether Brown moves up or drops in the rankings.
35. Delin Betances – RHP (Yankees)
Not only is Delin Betances a very large human at 6’ 8” and 260, he’s also has nasty stuff with his fastball sitting in the mid 90’s and a nasty power curveball. In AA Trenton, he’s struck out 86 in 72 innings but has walked 40 indicating his command is trailing his stuff.
36. Zach Lee – RHP (Dodgers)
The Dodgers #1 pick in 2010 has had a very good first year in professional ball, striking out 57 in 65 innings while only walking 21. A very athletic hard thrower who sits in the mid 90’s with a lot of late life, Lee has better secondary pitches than scouts originally thought. The Dodgers have a history of moving top pitching prospects quickly through their system and Zach Lee should continue that tradition.
37. Oswaldo Arcia – OF (Twins)
Span, Revere, and even Hicks are all basically the same player. Good speed, nice hit tool and can play the outfield. Oswaldo Arcia is not a burner but has plus raw power and is a bonafide corner outfielder prospect. In 2011, he’s shown nice plate discipline and the ability to control his strikeouts (80% contact rate). He’s starting to shoot up on prospect list. Invest.
38. Tim Wheeler – OF (Rockies)
Taken in the first round in 2009, Tim Wheeler played poorly in 2010, hitting only .249 in the hitter friendly confines of Modesto in the California league. He’s turned that around this year by slamming 24 home runs and batting .312 in Double A Tulsa. His .312 average is being supported by a fairly high BABIP but when taken all together, there’s a lot to like with Wheeler.
39. Jonathan Schoop – SS (Orioles)
Baltimore signed Schoop out of Curacao at the age of 17 and he immediately started impressing scouts and management with his approach at the plate. In 232 AB’s in Low-A, Schoop had a 32K/20BB ratio. Based on his quick swing, Schoop has a lot of power projection but with Machado the shortstop of the future, he might be destined for 2B or 3B.
40. Zach Wheeler – RHP (Giants)
Wheeler throws a nasty 92-94MPH two-seam fastball with natural sink. The results in High-A have been 88 strikeouts and 76.2 IP. On the negative, he’s walked 45, which is very typical for sinker-ballers and will correct over time. There’s an awful lot to like with Wheeler, not the least of which is the success that San Francisco pitchers have.
41. Jake Odorizzi – LHP (Royals)
Odorizzi has been dominating for the Royals in High-A Wilmington with a 103K/22BB in 78 innings. The effort earned him a promotion to AA Arkansas, where Odorizzi continues to dominate. Odorizzi is not a flame thrower but instead sits at 92-94MPH with a nice power curve and an emerging change-up with solid command. While Duffy, Lamb, and Montgomery are getting all the hype, Odorizzi is starting to deserve a look.
42. Paul Goldschmidt – 1B (Diamondbacks)
Last year in High-A Visalia in the Cal League, Goldschmidt hit 35 home runs to not only lead the league but also the entire minor leagues. Scouts were dubious as Goldy also struck out 161 times in 525 AB’s and did the damage in the many launching pads of the Cal league. He was asked after being promoted to AA Mobile to keep the power but cut down the strikeouts, which is easier said than done. However, Goldy has done just that by improving his contact rate to 77%, increasing his walk rate to 20% and slugging 26 home runs. While 77% will not lead to a .300 batting average, it should translate into a .250-.260 power guy playing first. The other knock against Goldschmidt is his defense is average at best, meaning he’ll have to hit to make it in the majors. I’m betting he will.
43. Anthony Ranaudo – RHP (Red Sox)
Another very large human at 6’ 7” and 230, Ranaudo brings a plus fastball sitting 92-94MPH as well as a plus curve to the mound. Given his height and resulting downward plane, Ranaudo is a tough guy to pickup but also will struggle with his arm slot and command.
44. Will Middlebrook – 3B (Red Sox)
Middlebrook was signed out of high school as an overslot 5th round pick and really struggled in his first three years of pro-ball. However, at age 22, Middlebrook is starting to put things together and the raw power is starting to translate into home runs – hitting 13 so far this year. Middlebrook’s swing is a little long, so strikeouts will be a problem.
45. Wilin Rosario – C (Rockies)
Was having a breakout year in 2010, when knee surgery cut his season short in AA Tulsa. This year, in 66 games, he’s hit 12 bombs but is only batting .254 and shows a lack of plate patience. Defensively, Rosario has a plus arm and handles pitchers very well. While not perfect, there’s a lot to like here.
46. Yasmani Grandal – C (Reds)
Grandal is the second Cincinnati catcher on this list, which would imply one of them will be trade bait down the line. While Grandal doesn’t have the upside of Mesoraco, he still has the offensive skill set to become an elite backstop and hit in the middle of the lineup. Plus power and a great approach to hitting.
47. Nolan Arenado – 3B (Rockies)
Drafted in the second round in 2008, Arenado has a plus hit tool with gap power that should eventually translate into 20-25 home run power in the majors. In High-A Modesto, he’s got an elite 88% contact rate and a passable 8% walk rate. The big step and proving ground will be his promotion to AA Mobile.
48. Jose Altuve – 2B (Astros)
Everybody in baseball is pulling for Jose Altuve. The diminutive 2B from Venezuela not only plays hard and is spark on the field, the guy can really hit. This year in the California league, he batted .408 with 19 stolen bases and 5 home runs, which earned him a promotion to AA Corpus Christi, where he has continued to hit, batting .360 with 4 more bombs in a 149 AB’s. People are starting to believe that the 5’ 5” or so little guy can be a full-time regular in the majors. Don’t be surprised if Altuve gets a September call-up this year and winds up in the opening day lineup in 2012.
49. Allen Webster – RHP (Dodgers)
Allen Webster doesn’t have the sexy name of Drew, Julio, or Tyler but his pitching has been pretty sexy so far. After striking out 62 in 46.1 innings while only walking 21, he earned a promotion to AA, where he hasn’t dominated but has pitched well enough to give scouts encouragement that he can be a mid-rotation plus pitcher.
50. Cheslor Cuthbert – 3B (Royals)
Signed in 2009 for a 1.35M signing bonus, the now 18-year Cuthbert is showing that he might have been a bargain. He’s batting .335 in Low-A Kane County and showing that he has not only a good approach to hitting 27K/13BB in 155 AB, but power, hitting 6 bombs. Mouse, Hose, Myers, et. al have gotten all the pub, but watch out for Cuthbert.
51. Matt Szczur – OF (Cubs)
Last spring, Szczur picked baseball over football as he signed a complicated deal with the Cubs. When drafted, scouts knew Szczur had plus plus speed but worried that he would hit enough. So far, that has not been a problem as he batted .314 in the Midwest league to go along with 28 stolen bases. He’s a bit of a slappy hitter, so don’t expect a lot of power once fully developed.
Trout posses 80 grade speed with a plus bat, plus defensive skills, and growing power. His make-up is off the charts. A scary comp is Carl Crawford with more power or Grady Sizemore (circa 1998) with a .300 average.
2. Bryce Harper – OF (Nationals)
Harper has true 80 grade raw power that could translate into 40+ home runs in the majors. He’ll have decent speed initially (10-15 stolen bases per year) but as the body fills out, the speed will diminish. Make-up is still a question, but A-Rod is not the most pleasant guy and has 600 home runs.
3. Julio Teheran – RHP (Braves)
The Braves have been very aggressive with Julio Teheran’s development, moving him quickly through the organization and even starting him twice this year in the majors. Both of those starts were sub-optimal and illustrates while Teheran is very advanced at age 20, he still has room for improvement. Some have even started to slightly sour on Teheran’s upside and while his breaking ball is average at best, his fastball, change-up and command are all plus. Invest.
4. Matt Moore – LHP (Rays)
Moore has been moving up scouting charts this year as lefties who can throw in the upper 90’s don’t grow on trees. He has a remarkable easy motion with great movement and rapidly evolving secondary pitches. The only question left is will the Rays treat him like David Price and move him up quickly or hold him back like Desmond Jennings? I'm guessing the former.
5. Shelby Miller – RHP (Cardinals)
Recently promoted to Double A, Miller has a 93-95 MPH fastball with an above average curve. The command is still developing. There’s a lot to like with Miller and along with Julio Teheran, is the best right-handed pitching prospect in the minors.
6. Jesus Montero – C/DH (Yankees)
Has not had a very good season but still possess a plus hit tool and power. Will probably not stick as a catcher and may ultimately wind up as a DH. Could be traded at the deadline.
7. Brett Lawrie – 3B (Blue Jays)
Was on the verge of being called up when a HBP broke his hand. Above average power, speed, and hit tool to go along with a hitters park in Toronto will make Lawrie a potent #3 hitter.
8. Manny Machado – SS (Orioles)
Machado’s combines a great plate approach (25K/23BB in Low-A), along with above average power and speed to form a scary package of a future all-star shortstop. Remember, this kid just turned 19 years old. Invest.
9. Carlos Martinez – RHP (Cardinals)
Incredible young talented 19-year old with an explosive fastball that reaches the upper 90’s with late movement. Improving curve and an emerging change-up have scouts excited. Command not there yet. Potential ace in the making.
10. Brandon Belt – 1B/OF (Giants)
First attempt in the majors resulted in an average below the Mendosa line. Second attempt resulted in a broken wrist. I’m guessing the third attempt will be the charm, although the recovery from his broken wrist could limit his power. Great approach and plate discipline combined with a nice level swing with wiry strength should translate into a .300 average and 20-25 home run power.
11. Devin Mesoraco – C (Reds)
Major league ready and just waiting on the Reds to move Ramon Hernandez. 80% contact rate and a 12% walk rate with nine home runs in AAA.
12. Jurickson Profar – SS (Rangers)
Profar is shooting up prospects list with great plate discipline 37K/41BB rate, power, speed, and great defensive skills. Look for the Rangers to move Andrus in the next two years to pave the way for Profar – he’s that good.
13. Martin Perez – LHP (Rangers)
Recently promoted to AAA, Perez posses three plus pitches that will play very well once he’s moved to Arlington next year. While he’s undersized at 6-0” and 180 lbs, he posses great mechanics that should enable him to keep his velo deep into games.
14. Jameson Taillon – RHP (Pirates)
The Pirates are taking it very easy with their prized prospect as he’s been limited to a maximum of 5 IP pitched per outing this year. At 6’ 6” and 220lbs, sitting in the mid-90’s with a plus curve ball already, Taillon has future Ace written all over him.
15. Jacob Turner – RHP (Tigers)
Tall projectable pitcher with smooth mechanics with great velocity (94MPH-96MPH) and the ability to spin a curve. Change-up is improving and while only 20, look for the Tigers to move him to the majors later this year.
16. Desmond Jennings – OF (Rays)
Maybe Jennings will be called up in time to make the MLB Senior Tour. Home runs are increasing, speed is there as well as plate discipline, but something is missing. Make-up is the only thing left. Keep believing.
17. Manny Banuelos – LHP (Yankees)
Banuelos continues to get a lot of swings and misses striking out 80 in 79.0 innings this year but his control has not matched as he’s walked 40. Velocity still sits 93-95 and touching 97. Still a lot to like here.
18. Wil Myers – OF (Royals)
Nasty knee infection has caused slower development for Myers but hit tool remains solid. Move to the outfield will accelerate his path to the majors but the dream of an elite hitting prospect behind the plate is gone. Continue to invest.
19. Hak-Ju Lee – SS (Rays)
Chris Archer was supposed to be the center piece of the Matt Garza trade but Hak-Ju Lee has surpassed him. Nice plate discipline and patience to go with plus speed and defensive ability should make Lee a solid regular or more for years to come.
20. Arodys Vizcaino – RHP (Braves)
The centerpiece of the Javier Vazquez trade is starting to pay-off for the Braves. Combines plus velocity that sits 93-94 and hitting 97 MPH with the ability to command the fastball. Breaking ball now above average and improving. Change-up still emerging. Hopefully elbow problems are behind him.
21. Jarred Cosart – RHP (Phillies)
Created a lot of buzz at the Futures game with a filthy inning of mid 90’s heat with late movement. Still throws across his body which will put a lot of strain on his shoulder and lead to downstream injuries, but the stuff is there.
22. Jean Segura – SS (Angels)
Hamstring problems have hindered the explosive Jean Segura this year but there is a lot of talent in the 21-year old Dominican shortstop. Projects as a plus hit tool with great plate discipline, a plus runner, and a plus defender at either SS or 2B. Power is emerging and 15-20 home run power is not out of the question.
23. Tyler Skaggs – LHP (Diamondbacks)
Tall and projectable, there’s a lot to dream on with Skaggs. Velocity has ticked up a bit since last year, but at 6’ 4”, should still have some projection left. Nice 12-6 classic curve that he can control. At only 20, has a chance to develop into a solid #2.
24. Neil Ramirez – RHP (Rangers)
Promoted from Single-A to AAA this year, Ramirez has started to show why he was a supplemental pick in the 2007 draft. Ramirez has put things together this year with a fastball that sits 93-94MPH, a plus curve and an above average change-up. Should see a cup of coffee this year with the potential to make the starting rotation in 2012.
25. Mike Montgomery – LHP (Royals)
Montgomery has not had the year that everyone expected. Command has been the problem and one wonders if there is an hidden injury. Still has the stuff to be a top of the rotation starter and has shown improvement over the past couple of starts.
26. Matt Harvey – RHP (Mets)
The concerns of overuse in college have subsided and the Mets look like they’ve gotten an excellent front of the rotation arm in the 2010 draft. Harvey sits 93-95 with nice spin on his breaking ball. His change-up is not there yet but should develop as he moves through the Mets organization
27. Jarrod Parker – RHP (Diamondbacks)
The Diamondbacks are taking it very slowly with Jarrod Parker as he recovers from TJS. Limited to 5.0 innings per game, Parker has shown his velocity has returned and over the past month, we are starting to see the command return. He still has elite stuff and should start to make noise in Phoenix in 2012.
28. Taijuan Walker – RHP (Mariners)
In next year’s mid-season update, Taijuan Walker could be the #1 pitcher on the list – he has that much talent and is only 18-years old. Walker sits in the mid 90’s touching higher with a nasty power curve. Throw-in the pitching venue of Seattle and Walker could be a future ace. Invest heavily.
29. Leonys Martin – OF (Rangers)
I didn’t necessarily believe the hype surrounding the signing of Martin, but clearly he has a plus hit tool with above average speed and power. He’s been recently promoted to AAA and may have an impact this year with the Rangers unless you believe Endy Chavez and Julio Borbon will block him.
30. Travis D’Arnaud – C (Blue Jays)
D’Arnaud is quietly having a nice season in AA New Hampshire with an 80% contact rate, 12% walk rate and 12 bombs. He doesn’t have the raw power of major league incumbent J.P Arencibia, but his hit tool is superior. D’Arnaud or Arencibia may ultimately become a trade chip.
31. Drew Pomeranz – LHP (Indians)
Recently promoted to Double A, Pomeranz dominated High-A with a 95K/32BB ratio over 75 innings. Still projects to be a nice mid-rotation starter.
32. Jon Singleton – 1B (Phillies)
The Phillies single A Clearwater team is stacked with excellent prospects like Jon Singleton. He posses great raw strength with quick hands and nice plate discipline for a 19-year old - walking 48 times in 271 AB’s. His biggest problem is Ryan Howard. Hopefully Ryan Howard won’t become his Jim Thome.
33. Jason Kipnis – 2B (Indians)
Jason Kipnis turning on a tough 95 MPH inside pitch thrown by uber prospect Julio Teheran during the Futures game illustrated the type of potential he has. Blessed with strong and quick hands, Kipnis should hit for a .280 average with 12-15 home run power. At 24-years old, he’s ready for the show.
34. Gary Brown – OF (Giants)
If you’re looking for a future MLB steal champion, it could very well be Gary Brown. Brown has blazing 80-grade speed and has amassed 38 steals on 51 attempts in High-A this year. His batting approach has turned out to better than scouts predicted showing decent plate discipline (8.0 BB rate). The next level will be lever on whether Brown moves up or drops in the rankings.
35. Delin Betances – RHP (Yankees)
Not only is Delin Betances a very large human at 6’ 8” and 260, he’s also has nasty stuff with his fastball sitting in the mid 90’s and a nasty power curveball. In AA Trenton, he’s struck out 86 in 72 innings but has walked 40 indicating his command is trailing his stuff.
36. Zach Lee – RHP (Dodgers)
The Dodgers #1 pick in 2010 has had a very good first year in professional ball, striking out 57 in 65 innings while only walking 21. A very athletic hard thrower who sits in the mid 90’s with a lot of late life, Lee has better secondary pitches than scouts originally thought. The Dodgers have a history of moving top pitching prospects quickly through their system and Zach Lee should continue that tradition.
37. Oswaldo Arcia – OF (Twins)
Span, Revere, and even Hicks are all basically the same player. Good speed, nice hit tool and can play the outfield. Oswaldo Arcia is not a burner but has plus raw power and is a bonafide corner outfielder prospect. In 2011, he’s shown nice plate discipline and the ability to control his strikeouts (80% contact rate). He’s starting to shoot up on prospect list. Invest.
38. Tim Wheeler – OF (Rockies)
Taken in the first round in 2009, Tim Wheeler played poorly in 2010, hitting only .249 in the hitter friendly confines of Modesto in the California league. He’s turned that around this year by slamming 24 home runs and batting .312 in Double A Tulsa. His .312 average is being supported by a fairly high BABIP but when taken all together, there’s a lot to like with Wheeler.
39. Jonathan Schoop – SS (Orioles)
Baltimore signed Schoop out of Curacao at the age of 17 and he immediately started impressing scouts and management with his approach at the plate. In 232 AB’s in Low-A, Schoop had a 32K/20BB ratio. Based on his quick swing, Schoop has a lot of power projection but with Machado the shortstop of the future, he might be destined for 2B or 3B.
40. Zach Wheeler – RHP (Giants)
Wheeler throws a nasty 92-94MPH two-seam fastball with natural sink. The results in High-A have been 88 strikeouts and 76.2 IP. On the negative, he’s walked 45, which is very typical for sinker-ballers and will correct over time. There’s an awful lot to like with Wheeler, not the least of which is the success that San Francisco pitchers have.
41. Jake Odorizzi – LHP (Royals)
Odorizzi has been dominating for the Royals in High-A Wilmington with a 103K/22BB in 78 innings. The effort earned him a promotion to AA Arkansas, where Odorizzi continues to dominate. Odorizzi is not a flame thrower but instead sits at 92-94MPH with a nice power curve and an emerging change-up with solid command. While Duffy, Lamb, and Montgomery are getting all the hype, Odorizzi is starting to deserve a look.
42. Paul Goldschmidt – 1B (Diamondbacks)
Last year in High-A Visalia in the Cal League, Goldschmidt hit 35 home runs to not only lead the league but also the entire minor leagues. Scouts were dubious as Goldy also struck out 161 times in 525 AB’s and did the damage in the many launching pads of the Cal league. He was asked after being promoted to AA Mobile to keep the power but cut down the strikeouts, which is easier said than done. However, Goldy has done just that by improving his contact rate to 77%, increasing his walk rate to 20% and slugging 26 home runs. While 77% will not lead to a .300 batting average, it should translate into a .250-.260 power guy playing first. The other knock against Goldschmidt is his defense is average at best, meaning he’ll have to hit to make it in the majors. I’m betting he will.
43. Anthony Ranaudo – RHP (Red Sox)
Another very large human at 6’ 7” and 230, Ranaudo brings a plus fastball sitting 92-94MPH as well as a plus curve to the mound. Given his height and resulting downward plane, Ranaudo is a tough guy to pickup but also will struggle with his arm slot and command.
44. Will Middlebrook – 3B (Red Sox)
Middlebrook was signed out of high school as an overslot 5th round pick and really struggled in his first three years of pro-ball. However, at age 22, Middlebrook is starting to put things together and the raw power is starting to translate into home runs – hitting 13 so far this year. Middlebrook’s swing is a little long, so strikeouts will be a problem.
45. Wilin Rosario – C (Rockies)
Was having a breakout year in 2010, when knee surgery cut his season short in AA Tulsa. This year, in 66 games, he’s hit 12 bombs but is only batting .254 and shows a lack of plate patience. Defensively, Rosario has a plus arm and handles pitchers very well. While not perfect, there’s a lot to like here.
46. Yasmani Grandal – C (Reds)
Grandal is the second Cincinnati catcher on this list, which would imply one of them will be trade bait down the line. While Grandal doesn’t have the upside of Mesoraco, he still has the offensive skill set to become an elite backstop and hit in the middle of the lineup. Plus power and a great approach to hitting.
47. Nolan Arenado – 3B (Rockies)
Drafted in the second round in 2008, Arenado has a plus hit tool with gap power that should eventually translate into 20-25 home run power in the majors. In High-A Modesto, he’s got an elite 88% contact rate and a passable 8% walk rate. The big step and proving ground will be his promotion to AA Mobile.
48. Jose Altuve – 2B (Astros)
Everybody in baseball is pulling for Jose Altuve. The diminutive 2B from Venezuela not only plays hard and is spark on the field, the guy can really hit. This year in the California league, he batted .408 with 19 stolen bases and 5 home runs, which earned him a promotion to AA Corpus Christi, where he has continued to hit, batting .360 with 4 more bombs in a 149 AB’s. People are starting to believe that the 5’ 5” or so little guy can be a full-time regular in the majors. Don’t be surprised if Altuve gets a September call-up this year and winds up in the opening day lineup in 2012.
49. Allen Webster – RHP (Dodgers)
Allen Webster doesn’t have the sexy name of Drew, Julio, or Tyler but his pitching has been pretty sexy so far. After striking out 62 in 46.1 innings while only walking 21, he earned a promotion to AA, where he hasn’t dominated but has pitched well enough to give scouts encouragement that he can be a mid-rotation plus pitcher.
50. Cheslor Cuthbert – 3B (Royals)
Signed in 2009 for a 1.35M signing bonus, the now 18-year Cuthbert is showing that he might have been a bargain. He’s batting .335 in Low-A Kane County and showing that he has not only a good approach to hitting 27K/13BB in 155 AB, but power, hitting 6 bombs. Mouse, Hose, Myers, et. al have gotten all the pub, but watch out for Cuthbert.
51. Matt Szczur – OF (Cubs)
Last spring, Szczur picked baseball over football as he signed a complicated deal with the Cubs. When drafted, scouts knew Szczur had plus plus speed but worried that he would hit enough. So far, that has not been a problem as he batted .314 in the Midwest league to go along with 28 stolen bases. He’s a bit of a slappy hitter, so don’t expect a lot of power once fully developed.
Monday, June 6, 2011
Jarrod Parker - On the verge
In the 2007 amateur draft, the Arizona Diamondbacks were ecstatic when Jarrod Parker fell to them at the ninth overall pick. The 6’ 1” right-handed high-schooler out of Norwell Indiana had a quick arm that generated mid 90’s velocity with decent secondary pitches that Arizona believed was a great foundation for moving Parker quickly through their system.
Signing over-slot for $2.1M on the signing deadline in 2007, Parker started his professional career in 2008 Low-A South Bend and over 117 innings, struck out 117 batters while issuing only 33 walks. That performance led to a 2009 Baseball America prospect ranking of 29 and a promotion to High-A Visalia and then to Double-AA Mobile where Parker continued to flourish, posting again impressive strikeout numbers. In July, elbow tightness led to rest and eventually Tommy John surgery where Parker missed the entire 2010 season.
Scouts and fans alike got excited when Arizona officials reported Parker, still only 22 years old, throwing 94-95 MPH and touching 97 MPH during the 2010 fall instructional league. However, as Spring Training merged into April, Jarrod Parker followers were reminded that velocity is the first thing to return after Tommy John surgery followed by command. In five starts from April 11th to May 5th at Double-AA Mobile, Parker pitched 23 innings, striking out 20 but issuing 17 walks. However, since then, he’s pitched 30 innings, striking out 25 and walking only 6. The 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio is clearly encouraging and is a sign that Parker is returning to form.
While the velocity is there and the command is returning, Arizona continues to be very cautious with their prized prospect. Parker has only pitched over five innings once this year and appears to be on a pitch count of between 70 and 75 pitches. However, as Arizona finds themselves in playoff contention, you might begin to see Parker being stretched out very soon.
Fantasy owners need to continue to monitor the progress of Jarrod Parker to ensure his command stays excellent and his innings per start increase. If both of these occur, and whether or not Parker is promoted to AAA Reno, fantasy owners in deeper leagues should begin adding Parker in late June with an anticipated July call-up.
Monday, May 2, 2011
Texas Rangers Breakout - Neil Ramirez
It’s not often you hear about a prospect moving from Hi-A to AAA in a single day, but that’s what happened recently with Texas Rangers prospect Neil Ramirez.
Ramirez was drafted in the supplemental first round of the 2007 Rule four draft as a 6’ 3’’ high-school right handed with a 91-93 fastball and an above average curveball. While Ramirez performed well in Low-A Spokane in 2008, he didn’t have the same level of success upon his promotion to Hi-A Hickory in the SALLY league. Control was the problem for Ramirez as he walked 41 in 66.1 IP. In fact, 2009 was so bad, he was forced to repeat Hi-A in 2010, but by making some mechanical corrections, started to figure things out.
While his 2010 surface stats were not great, including a 4.43 ERA, he struck out 142 in 140.1 IP and walked only 37. Plus, he improved his curveball and developed a nice changeup to complete the package. Most impressive, the mechanical change he made pushed his velocity to 92-95 touching 96.
This spring, the Rangers brass openly spoke about how impressed they were with the improved velocity and mechanics of Ramirez. However, he was assigned once again to Hi-A, but this time in 4.2 IP, he gave up one hit and struck out nine. For his next start, Ramirez was asked to make an emergency start in AAA and has remained there ever since. In 21.1 IP, Ramirez is sporting a 1.71 ERA, 25K’s and 8 BB and looks like he belongs.
At age 22, Neil Ramirez appears to be back on the fast track and if he continues to pitch well, could be brought up to the big leagues this summer for a team that will need pitching, unless you think Brandon Webb currently hitting 79-82 on the gun is the answer. With a plus fastball touching 96, a plus curve, an above average changeup with improving command, it’s time to use the word “Breakout” next to Neil Ramirez.
Monday, April 25, 2011
Batting lead-off - Mike Trout, batting second…
…Jean Segura.
While most knowledgeable baseball fans have heard of Mike Trout, few have heard of Jean Segura, an unheralded Dominican that was signed by the Los Angeles Angels in 2007 at the ripe age of 16. However, after an excellent season last year in Lo-A Cedar Rapids where Segura batted .313, stole 50 bases while slugging 10 home runs, the Angels started to envision a major league batting order that went: 1. Mike Trout, and 2. Jean Segura.
Segura is a strong and athletic generating tremendous bat speed for a guy 5’ 10” and 185 pounds. Based on his swing mechanics, there appears to be power upside to the 10 home runs that Segura hit in 2010. In addition to the offensive upside, managers in the Midwest League ranked him as the best defensive second baseman in the league. With his plus arm, the Angels have moved Segura to shortstop in hopes that he will be an eventual upgrade in the big leagues.
Over the first 15 games of the 2011 season in Hi-A Inland Empire, Segura has raked - batting .344 with six stolen bases and 10 runs scored. While the sample size is small, his contact rate and walk rate have been excellent at 85% and 10% respectfully. Also, the transition to shortstop has been equally great with Segura only committing one error over the course of the first 15 games.
While slightly behind Trout, Segura should get a promotion to Double-A later this summer and assuming things go well, should get a peak at the big league in 2012 before competing for a job in 2013.
While most knowledgeable baseball fans have heard of Mike Trout, few have heard of Jean Segura, an unheralded Dominican that was signed by the Los Angeles Angels in 2007 at the ripe age of 16. However, after an excellent season last year in Lo-A Cedar Rapids where Segura batted .313, stole 50 bases while slugging 10 home runs, the Angels started to envision a major league batting order that went: 1. Mike Trout, and 2. Jean Segura.
Segura is a strong and athletic generating tremendous bat speed for a guy 5’ 10” and 185 pounds. Based on his swing mechanics, there appears to be power upside to the 10 home runs that Segura hit in 2010. In addition to the offensive upside, managers in the Midwest League ranked him as the best defensive second baseman in the league. With his plus arm, the Angels have moved Segura to shortstop in hopes that he will be an eventual upgrade in the big leagues.
Over the first 15 games of the 2011 season in Hi-A Inland Empire, Segura has raked - batting .344 with six stolen bases and 10 runs scored. While the sample size is small, his contact rate and walk rate have been excellent at 85% and 10% respectfully. Also, the transition to shortstop has been equally great with Segura only committing one error over the course of the first 15 games.
While slightly behind Trout, Segura should get a promotion to Double-A later this summer and assuming things go well, should get a peak at the big league in 2012 before competing for a job in 2013.
Monday, April 4, 2011
Kershaw, Billingsley…and now Zach Lee
Zach Lee was selected #28 overall in the 2010 Rule 4 draft by the Los Angeles Dodgers but was regarded as one of the top high school pitching prospects by many scouts; some scouts even ranking his raw talent above Jameson Taillon. So, why did he drop?
It turns out that Zach Lee was even a better high school quarterback and after being recruited by dozens of colleges, Lee signed with LSU. He had already started spring two-a-day practices when word hit that the Dodgers had picked Lee with pick #28 in the June amateur Rule 4 draft. After a lot of negotiating, Lee finally signed for a franchise record $5.25M draft bonus.
While the 6’ 3”, 190 pound Lee was demonstrating a mid 90’s fastball and a nasty breaking ball in the fall instructional league, he’s still got a long way to go. As a two-sport high school athlete, Lee really didn’t focus on his pitching and in fact has admitted that his mechanics are self -taught. You can look at this two-ways – 1) Uh oh, this guy is heading for arm trouble or 2) with some instruction, the sky could be the limit. Obviously the Dodgers believe it’s the latter and after the signing, many scouts are saying the same thing.
With the recent success of Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley, the Dodgers have demonstrated they can groom prospects quickly into front of the rotation starters. Many Dodgers faithful are hoping that Lee will follow a similar accelerated path to the major leagues that Kershaw had. As a reminder, after a brief stint in Rookie Ball in the year he was drafted, Kershaw started 2007 in low-A Great Lakes before ending the season in AA. In 2008, after 61.1 innings in AA, he was promoted to the Majors.
Zach Lee is a player that baseball fans and fantasy baseball owners alike need to pay close attention during the 2011 season. Concentrate on the K/9 rate as well as the HR/9 rate and don’t worry as much with the walk rate. For raw talents, this is the last thing to mature. It’s only been in the last year that Clayton Kershaw has put that element together.
Zach Lee will make his major league debut this spring playing in Single A Great Lakes.
It turns out that Zach Lee was even a better high school quarterback and after being recruited by dozens of colleges, Lee signed with LSU. He had already started spring two-a-day practices when word hit that the Dodgers had picked Lee with pick #28 in the June amateur Rule 4 draft. After a lot of negotiating, Lee finally signed for a franchise record $5.25M draft bonus.
While the 6’ 3”, 190 pound Lee was demonstrating a mid 90’s fastball and a nasty breaking ball in the fall instructional league, he’s still got a long way to go. As a two-sport high school athlete, Lee really didn’t focus on his pitching and in fact has admitted that his mechanics are self -taught. You can look at this two-ways – 1) Uh oh, this guy is heading for arm trouble or 2) with some instruction, the sky could be the limit. Obviously the Dodgers believe it’s the latter and after the signing, many scouts are saying the same thing.
With the recent success of Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley, the Dodgers have demonstrated they can groom prospects quickly into front of the rotation starters. Many Dodgers faithful are hoping that Lee will follow a similar accelerated path to the major leagues that Kershaw had. As a reminder, after a brief stint in Rookie Ball in the year he was drafted, Kershaw started 2007 in low-A Great Lakes before ending the season in AA. In 2008, after 61.1 innings in AA, he was promoted to the Majors.
Zach Lee is a player that baseball fans and fantasy baseball owners alike need to pay close attention during the 2011 season. Concentrate on the K/9 rate as well as the HR/9 rate and don’t worry as much with the walk rate. For raw talents, this is the last thing to mature. It’s only been in the last year that Clayton Kershaw has put that element together.
Zach Lee will make his major league debut this spring playing in Single A Great Lakes.
Monday, March 21, 2011
The Next Big Prospect?
A young 19 year old right-handed pitcher with an identity crisis has caused quite a stir in spring training this year for the St. Louis Cardinals. The player - Carlos Martinez or is it Carlos Matias?
Carlos Martinez has a story that few of us in the US can appreicate. He was original signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Red Sox as Carlos Matias. However, his contract was voided when his visa application failed due to the discrepancy of his last name. Martinez’s mother died when he was young and he was raised by his uncle who gave him his surname, Matias. Well, the Dominican government called foul and rejected his visa until he had his name legally changed to his mother’s name of Martinez.
The Red Sox loss was the Cardinals gain as they signed him last year to an impressive $1.5 million signing bonus – a hefty amount for a teenager who doesn’t turn 20 until this September. Standing only 6 feet tall and a 160 pounds, Martinez has an electric arm with his fastball sitting in the mid 90’s but hitting 98-99. During a first look in Jupiter Florida earlier this spring, the Cardinals brass were effusive in their praise. Prior to that, all we had seen were fuzzy video tapes and oh yeah, a 78K/14BB performance over 59 innings in the Dominican Summer league last year.
Am I worried about the durability of a slight 6 foot pitcher? Sure! Today, major league teams are looking for tall projectable 6’ 4” 220 pound guys that have that great downward plane. Thank you Randy Johnson! It’s my one worry about young Manny Bannuels, the Yankees young prospect that is another player causing a stir in Spring Training. He’s 5’ 11” and 155 pounds.
As with all young pitchers, Martinez’s secondary pitches will have to be taught and refined by the Cardinals. Over the past several years, the Cardinals have had a lot of success in grooming young pitchers with a lot of upside. See Adam Wainwright, who really excelled once he was traded from the Braves in 2003 and more recently, the young Shelby Miller.
While we don’t expect Martinez to hit the major leagues anytime soon, guys that can throw in the upper 90’s don’t grow on trees and therefore is a pitcher that fantasy owners in dynasty leagues and deep keeper leagues need to follow this season.
Carlos Martinez has a story that few of us in the US can appreicate. He was original signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Red Sox as Carlos Matias. However, his contract was voided when his visa application failed due to the discrepancy of his last name. Martinez’s mother died when he was young and he was raised by his uncle who gave him his surname, Matias. Well, the Dominican government called foul and rejected his visa until he had his name legally changed to his mother’s name of Martinez.
The Red Sox loss was the Cardinals gain as they signed him last year to an impressive $1.5 million signing bonus – a hefty amount for a teenager who doesn’t turn 20 until this September. Standing only 6 feet tall and a 160 pounds, Martinez has an electric arm with his fastball sitting in the mid 90’s but hitting 98-99. During a first look in Jupiter Florida earlier this spring, the Cardinals brass were effusive in their praise. Prior to that, all we had seen were fuzzy video tapes and oh yeah, a 78K/14BB performance over 59 innings in the Dominican Summer league last year.
Am I worried about the durability of a slight 6 foot pitcher? Sure! Today, major league teams are looking for tall projectable 6’ 4” 220 pound guys that have that great downward plane. Thank you Randy Johnson! It’s my one worry about young Manny Bannuels, the Yankees young prospect that is another player causing a stir in Spring Training. He’s 5’ 11” and 155 pounds.
As with all young pitchers, Martinez’s secondary pitches will have to be taught and refined by the Cardinals. Over the past several years, the Cardinals have had a lot of success in grooming young pitchers with a lot of upside. See Adam Wainwright, who really excelled once he was traded from the Braves in 2003 and more recently, the young Shelby Miller.
While we don’t expect Martinez to hit the major leagues anytime soon, guys that can throw in the upper 90’s don’t grow on trees and therefore is a pitcher that fantasy owners in dynasty leagues and deep keeper leagues need to follow this season.
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