AFL Rising Stars Game

As I drove my daughter home from college in a blinding snow storm last weekend, my mind kept moving to warm sunshine and watching baseball games. I’ll have to admit that it was hard to concentrate as trees were falling onto power lines that then laid across roads, but it was the image that motivated me as I my car slid for most of the four hour trip home. With that as a backdrop, imagine my horror as I sat in the scouting section in Surprise Arizona, just a week later, bundled up with multiple socks, a heavy winter coat and gloves watching the annual Rising Stars Game. The thermometer showed 53 degrees at game time but trust me, 53 degrees at night in the desert is brutal.


The Rising Stars Game is the premier event of the Arizona Fall League (AFL), which features some of the best minor league prospects in baseball. The reason I say “some” is that the AFL is primarily a hitters league as major league baseball executives do not want to send their top pitching prospects who have just thrown 130 innings for the first time in their life. While the likes of Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, and Wil Myers are here, Matt Moore, Julio Teheran, and Taijuan Walker are lounging in their parent’s basement playing video games.

That said, one thing that has become a tradition is the professional debut of some of the top pitching prospects drafted in the previous Rule 4 draft - enter Gerrit Cole, Danny Hultzen, and Jed Bradley. All three were at the Rising Stars Game and while two of them pitched well, one of them wished they had been invited to Matt Moore’s Call of Duty tournament.

In this AFL series, I’ll detail my observations of some of the prospects that I was anxious to see and some that caught me by surprise that had me spending time between innings talking with scouts and researching stats and scouting reports at night. Buckle up, here we go…

Gerrit Cole

The Rising Stars Game featured the 2011 #1 draft pick, Gerrit Cole against the #2 pick, Danny Hultzen. From a prospect perspective, this is Ali vs. Frazier – “the Thrilla in Manilla.” Unfortunately after 6 batters, you could hear Howard Cosell screaming…down goes Frazier…down goes Frazier. In warm-up, Cole looked uncomfortable. He had no command of his off-speed pitches and hung a breaking ball on the third pitch. With a two inning limit, all you could think was uh oh… Cole’s first pitch was a 96 MHP fastball for a strike, the second was an 86 MPH slider that was nowhere near the strike zone and by the fifth pitch, Kevin Mattison, a Florida outfield prospect, hit a hard base hit to the right side. Cole was clearly agitated throughout his time on the mound, constantly kicking at the rubber like it had the Pick Six Lotto numbers underneath it.

While the stuff was flat, the pitch selection was even worse. He was throwing off-speed pitches on 2-0 counts that had most scouts looking perplexed while taking copious notes. Nick Franklin then crushed a 95 MPH fastball to right center that put the score at 2-0 before some fans had a chance to take a bite of their overcooked hot dog. Five batters later, Cole was walking to the dugout, retiring only two batters - Mike Olt on a strikeout with a slider that was a foot out of the strike zone and Jaff Decker on a ground-out.

Ok, it’s one game, in fact, it was 29 pitches, and so I think it’s safe to say we can give Cole a mulligan. I did have a chance to review film of Cole earlier in the week and saw sound mechanics that produces easy velocity. I also reviewed the film with a scout who has seen Cole extensively and he illustrated why the stuff is elite but where he’s not always repeating his delivery that is leading to inconsistent command. Also, Cole’s clearly got a great pro body at 6-4 and 220lbs that reminded me of young Roger Clemens on the mound.

I did get some interesting anecdotes on Cole’s makeup. The word is that he’s a real playful character off the mound, essentially not acting like the “alpha” male you want in an Ace but when he gets to the mound, he’s all business, even combative. I’m not sure what to make of this yet, but it is one of those things you store away.

Danny Hultzen

As bad as Gerrit Cole was Saturday night, Danny Hultzen was that good. He struck out the side in the first inning and was sitting 89-93 MPH and touched 94 twice. His command was excellent and while his secondary pitches were above average, he was able to locate them very well. Essentially that was the scouting report that I received before the game and the one that you can find publically on the Internet. He’s extremely polished with good stuff, not elite stuff and should progress quickly through the Mariner’s organization.

One thing I saw and subsequently spoke with a cross checkers at the game was a “crouchy funky delivery”. It wasn’t your prototypical long fluid lefty delivery (think Andy Pettitte) but instead was a delivery that had Hultzen bending over in the beginning before opening up as he made his way to the plate. When he did open up, many times he opened too far and created the dreaded “Inverted W”. In fact, in the film I saw the previous day, you could clearly see the “W” on most pitches – not all, but most.

After seeing two innings and multiple scouting films, I see a very good pitcher in Hultzen, but not a stud. He’ll be a solid #3 with #2 upside, particularly in Safeco and the AL West. Given his ability to locate and command his pitches, I could definitely see Hultzen making his major league debut by mid 2013 if not a cup of coffee in 2012, although the Mariners will probably closely monitor his innings in 2012 given his workload over three years at the University of Virginia.

Jed Bradley

Another lefty pitcher that made an appearance in the Rising Stars Game was Milwaukee’s first round draft pick, Jed Bradley, taken #15 overall in the 2011 Rule 4 draft. Bradley’s stuff was really good as he sat 90-93 with his fastball and was able to locate all pitches very well. I spoke with a scout after his inning and he thought Bradley’s stuff was better than Hultzen’s with another scout shaking his head – NO. Then again, it was the 7th inning and everybody was freezing by then, so he could have just been shivering.

I saw a bit of an inconsistent fastball but a plus curve and an above average change-up. I counted four change up’s with one absolutely nasty, that I regrettably forgot to write down who he threw it against. The batter was clearly thinking fastball and thought he saw fastball, but was WAY out in front. Finally, Bradley’s work ethic is supposedly off the charts with scouts raving about his make-up. He takes instruction very well and wants to get better.

Milwaukee does not have a long history of developing pitchers, which is why they felt compelled to move Brett Lawrie for Shawn Marcum as well as bringing in Zack Greinke. However, I’m feeling really good about Jed Bradley’s chances and everybody should put him on their radar.

Jean Segura

Before I share my observations about Jean Segura, you need to know that I have a huge “man crush” on the 21 year old Dominican. I think he’s the real deal with a plus hit tool, plus speed, and enough range to play shortstop. I see him as a first division starter with all-star potential.

The first thing you notice about Jean Segura is the body. He has gigantic legs and in fact, they almost look too developed. He’s not a big guy, even though he was listed in the press guide at 5-11 and 160. I’m guessing he’s more 5-8 to 5-9 but unfortunately the Surprise Stadium officials neglected to put up the measuring tape you see as you leave a Convenience store… a measuring tape on the net, hmmm???

Secondly, Segura has a very wide batting stance that allows him to achieve great plate coverage but reduces his ability to hit for power. There is very little movement in both his lower and upper body, but I saw him hit ropes in both games and batting practice. While I believe the raw power is there, I see his current approach yielding 10-12 home runs as a ceiling.

The speed is 60 on a 20 to 80 scale as I clocked him on three separate occasions down the first base line to an average of 4.19 from the right side. In a close play in the Rising Stars Game, I clocked him at 4.21 down the line. I doubt he will duplicate the 50 stolen bases he had in Low-A in 2010 once he makes the Majors, but there is easy 30 stolen base potential.

Finally is the defense. The Angels decided to move Segura to shortstop this year and while a hamstring injury reduced his playing time, what I saw was pretty impressive. He made an acrobatic play in the Rising Stars Game that had the entire stadium applauding. Granted it came after a pitiful play by his counter-part, game MVP Nick Franklin, but I believe the range and arm speed will play just fine at short.

Segura should move to Double-A next year and assuming his hamstring injury is behind him, don’t be surprised if you see Segura get a September call-up in 2012. If not, 2013 could be the year where the Angels bat Trout #1 and Segura #2…for a long-time.

Next time out, I’ll provide profiles of additional players I saw in Arizona including Bryce Harper – and let me tell you…it’s time to believe the HYPE!