Friday, July 15, 2011

Mid season Top 50 Prospects

1. Mike Trout – OF (Angels)


Trout posses 80 grade speed with a plus bat, plus defensive skills, and growing power. His make-up is off the charts. A scary comp is Carl Crawford with more power or Grady Sizemore (circa 1998) with a .300 average.

2. Bryce Harper – OF (Nationals)

Harper has true 80 grade raw power that could translate into 40+ home runs in the majors. He’ll have decent speed initially (10-15 stolen bases per year) but as the body fills out, the speed will diminish. Make-up is still a question, but A-Rod is not the most pleasant guy and has 600 home runs.

3. Julio Teheran – RHP (Braves)

The Braves have been very aggressive with Julio Teheran’s development, moving him quickly through the organization and even starting him twice this year in the majors. Both of those starts were sub-optimal and illustrates while Teheran is very advanced at age 20, he still has room for improvement. Some have even started to slightly sour on Teheran’s upside and while his breaking ball is average at best, his fastball, change-up and command are all plus. Invest.

4. Matt Moore – LHP (Rays)

Moore has been moving up scouting charts this year as lefties who can throw in the upper 90’s don’t grow on trees. He has a remarkable easy motion with great movement and rapidly evolving secondary pitches. The only question left is will the Rays treat him like David Price and move him up quickly or hold him back like Desmond Jennings? I'm guessing the former.

5. Shelby Miller – RHP (Cardinals)

Recently promoted to Double A, Miller has a 93-95 MPH fastball with an above average curve. The command is still developing. There’s a lot to like with Miller and along with Julio Teheran, is the best right-handed pitching prospect in the minors.

6. Jesus Montero – C/DH (Yankees)

Has not had a very good season but still possess a plus hit tool and power. Will probably not stick as a catcher and may ultimately wind up as a DH. Could be traded at the deadline.

7. Brett Lawrie – 3B (Blue Jays)

Was on the verge of being called up when a HBP broke his hand. Above average power, speed, and hit tool to go along with a hitters park in Toronto will make Lawrie a potent #3 hitter.

8. Manny Machado – SS (Orioles)

Machado’s combines a great plate approach (25K/23BB in Low-A), along with above average power and speed to form a scary package of a future all-star shortstop. Remember, this kid just turned 19 years old. Invest.

9. Carlos Martinez – RHP (Cardinals)

Incredible young talented 19-year old with an explosive fastball that reaches the upper 90’s with late movement. Improving curve and an emerging change-up have scouts excited. Command not there yet. Potential ace in the making.

10. Brandon Belt – 1B/OF (Giants)

First attempt in the majors resulted in an average below the Mendosa line. Second attempt resulted in a broken wrist. I’m guessing the third attempt will be the charm, although the recovery from his broken wrist could limit his power. Great approach and plate discipline combined with a nice level swing with wiry strength should translate into a .300 average and 20-25 home run power.

11. Devin Mesoraco – C (Reds)

Major league ready and just waiting on the Reds to move Ramon Hernandez. 80% contact rate and a 12% walk rate with nine home runs in AAA.

12. Jurickson Profar – SS (Rangers)

Profar is shooting up prospects list with great plate discipline 37K/41BB rate, power, speed, and great defensive skills. Look for the Rangers to move Andrus in the next two years to pave the way for Profar – he’s that good.

13. Martin Perez – LHP (Rangers)

Recently promoted to AAA, Perez posses three plus pitches that will play very well once he’s moved to Arlington next year. While he’s undersized at 6-0” and 180 lbs, he posses great mechanics that should enable him to keep his velo deep into games.

14. Jameson Taillon – RHP (Pirates)

The Pirates are taking it very easy with their prized prospect as he’s been limited to a maximum of 5 IP pitched per outing this year. At 6’ 6” and 220lbs, sitting in the mid-90’s with a plus curve ball already, Taillon has future Ace written all over him.

15. Jacob Turner – RHP (Tigers)

Tall projectable pitcher with smooth mechanics with great velocity (94MPH-96MPH) and the ability to spin a curve. Change-up is improving and while only 20, look for the Tigers to move him to the majors later this year.

16. Desmond Jennings – OF (Rays)

Maybe Jennings will be called up in time to make the MLB Senior Tour. Home runs are increasing, speed is there as well as plate discipline, but something is missing. Make-up is the only thing left. Keep believing.

17. Manny Banuelos – LHP (Yankees)

Banuelos continues to get a lot of swings and misses striking out 80 in 79.0 innings this year but his control has not matched as he’s walked 40. Velocity still sits 93-95 and touching 97. Still a lot to like here.

18. Wil Myers – OF (Royals)

Nasty knee infection has caused slower development for Myers but hit tool remains solid. Move to the outfield will accelerate his path to the majors but the dream of an elite hitting prospect behind the plate is gone. Continue to invest.

19. Hak-Ju Lee – SS (Rays)

Chris Archer was supposed to be the center piece of the Matt Garza trade but Hak-Ju Lee has surpassed him. Nice plate discipline and patience to go with plus speed and defensive ability should make Lee a solid regular or more for years to come.

20. Arodys Vizcaino – RHP (Braves)

The centerpiece of the Javier Vazquez trade is starting to pay-off for the Braves. Combines plus velocity that sits 93-94 and hitting 97 MPH with the ability to command the fastball. Breaking ball now above average and improving. Change-up still emerging. Hopefully elbow problems are behind him.

21. Jarred Cosart – RHP (Phillies)

Created a lot of buzz at the Futures game with a filthy inning of mid 90’s heat with late movement. Still throws across his body which will put a lot of strain on his shoulder and lead to downstream injuries, but the stuff is there.

22. Jean Segura – SS (Angels)

Hamstring problems have hindered the explosive Jean Segura this year but there is a lot of talent in the 21-year old Dominican shortstop. Projects as a plus hit tool with great plate discipline, a plus runner, and a plus defender at either SS or 2B. Power is emerging and 15-20 home run power is not out of the question.

23. Tyler Skaggs – LHP (Diamondbacks)

Tall and projectable, there’s a lot to dream on with Skaggs. Velocity has ticked up a bit since last year, but at 6’ 4”, should still have some projection left. Nice 12-6 classic curve that he can control. At only 20, has a chance to develop into a solid #2.

24. Neil Ramirez – RHP (Rangers)

Promoted from Single-A to AAA this year, Ramirez has started to show why he was a supplemental pick in the 2007 draft. Ramirez has put things together this year with a fastball that sits 93-94MPH, a plus curve and an above average change-up. Should see a cup of coffee this year with the potential to make the starting rotation in 2012.

25. Mike Montgomery – LHP (Royals)

Montgomery has not had the year that everyone expected. Command has been the problem and one wonders if there is an hidden injury. Still has the stuff to be a top of the rotation starter and has shown improvement over the past couple of starts.

26. Matt Harvey – RHP (Mets)

The concerns of overuse in college have subsided and the Mets look like they’ve gotten an excellent front of the rotation arm in the 2010 draft. Harvey sits 93-95 with nice spin on his breaking ball. His change-up is not there yet but should develop as he moves through the Mets organization

27. Jarrod Parker – RHP (Diamondbacks)

The Diamondbacks are taking it very slowly with Jarrod Parker as he recovers from TJS. Limited to 5.0 innings per game, Parker has shown his velocity has returned and over the past month, we are starting to see the command return. He still has elite stuff and should start to make noise in Phoenix in 2012.

28. Taijuan Walker – RHP (Mariners)

In next year’s mid-season update, Taijuan Walker could be the #1 pitcher on the list – he has that much talent and is only 18-years old. Walker sits in the mid 90’s touching higher with a nasty power curve. Throw-in the pitching venue of Seattle and Walker could be a future ace. Invest heavily.

29. Leonys Martin – OF (Rangers)

I didn’t necessarily believe the hype surrounding the signing of Martin, but clearly he has a plus hit tool with above average speed and power. He’s been recently promoted to AAA and may have an impact this year with the Rangers unless you believe Endy Chavez and Julio Borbon will block him.

30. Travis D’Arnaud – C (Blue Jays)

D’Arnaud is quietly having a nice season in AA New Hampshire with an 80% contact rate, 12% walk rate and 12 bombs. He doesn’t have the raw power of major league incumbent J.P Arencibia, but his hit tool is superior. D’Arnaud or Arencibia may ultimately become a trade chip.

31. Drew Pomeranz – LHP (Indians)

Recently promoted to Double A, Pomeranz dominated High-A with a 95K/32BB ratio over 75 innings. Still projects to be a nice mid-rotation starter.

32. Jon Singleton – 1B (Phillies)

The Phillies single A Clearwater team is stacked with excellent prospects like Jon Singleton. He posses great raw strength with quick hands and nice plate discipline for a 19-year old - walking 48 times in 271 AB’s. His biggest problem is Ryan Howard. Hopefully Ryan Howard won’t become his Jim Thome.

33. Jason Kipnis – 2B (Indians)

Jason Kipnis turning on a tough 95 MPH inside pitch thrown by uber prospect Julio Teheran during the Futures game illustrated the type of potential he has. Blessed with strong and quick hands, Kipnis should hit for a .280 average with 12-15 home run power. At 24-years old, he’s ready for the show.

34. Gary Brown – OF (Giants)

If you’re looking for a future MLB steal champion, it could very well be Gary Brown. Brown has blazing 80-grade speed and has amassed 38 steals on 51 attempts in High-A this year. His batting approach has turned out to better than scouts predicted showing decent plate discipline (8.0 BB rate). The next level will be lever on whether Brown moves up or drops in the rankings.

35. Delin Betances – RHP (Yankees)

Not only is Delin Betances a very large human at 6’ 8” and 260, he’s also has nasty stuff with his fastball sitting in the mid 90’s and a nasty power curveball. In AA Trenton, he’s struck out 86 in 72 innings but has walked 40 indicating his command is trailing his stuff.

36. Zach Lee – RHP (Dodgers)

The Dodgers #1 pick in 2010 has had a very good first year in professional ball, striking out 57 in 65 innings while only walking 21. A very athletic hard thrower who sits in the mid 90’s with a lot of late life, Lee has better secondary pitches than scouts originally thought. The Dodgers have a history of moving top pitching prospects quickly through their system and Zach Lee should continue that tradition.

37. Oswaldo Arcia – OF (Twins)

Span, Revere, and even Hicks are all basically the same player. Good speed, nice hit tool and can play the outfield. Oswaldo Arcia is not a burner but has plus raw power and is a bonafide corner outfielder prospect. In 2011, he’s shown nice plate discipline and the ability to control his strikeouts (80% contact rate). He’s starting to shoot up on prospect list. Invest.

38. Tim Wheeler – OF (Rockies)

Taken in the first round in 2009, Tim Wheeler played poorly in 2010, hitting only .249 in the hitter friendly confines of Modesto in the California league. He’s turned that around this year by slamming 24 home runs and batting .312 in Double A Tulsa. His .312 average is being supported by a fairly high BABIP but when taken all together, there’s a lot to like with Wheeler.

39. Jonathan Schoop – SS (Orioles)

Baltimore signed Schoop out of Curacao at the age of 17 and he immediately started impressing scouts and management with his approach at the plate. In 232 AB’s in Low-A, Schoop had a 32K/20BB ratio. Based on his quick swing, Schoop has a lot of power projection but with Machado the shortstop of the future, he might be destined for 2B or 3B.

40. Zach Wheeler – RHP (Giants)

Wheeler throws a nasty 92-94MPH two-seam fastball with natural sink. The results in High-A have been 88 strikeouts and 76.2 IP. On the negative, he’s walked 45, which is very typical for sinker-ballers and will correct over time. There’s an awful lot to like with Wheeler, not the least of which is the success that San Francisco pitchers have.

41. Jake Odorizzi – LHP (Royals)

Odorizzi has been dominating for the Royals in High-A Wilmington with a 103K/22BB in 78 innings. The effort earned him a promotion to AA Arkansas, where Odorizzi continues to dominate. Odorizzi is not a flame thrower but instead sits at 92-94MPH with a nice power curve and an emerging change-up with solid command. While Duffy, Lamb, and Montgomery are getting all the hype, Odorizzi is starting to deserve a look.

42. Paul Goldschmidt – 1B (Diamondbacks)

Last year in High-A Visalia in the Cal League, Goldschmidt hit 35 home runs to not only lead the league but also the entire minor leagues. Scouts were dubious as Goldy also struck out 161 times in 525 AB’s and did the damage in the many launching pads of the Cal league. He was asked after being promoted to AA Mobile to keep the power but cut down the strikeouts, which is easier said than done. However, Goldy has done just that by improving his contact rate to 77%, increasing his walk rate to 20% and slugging 26 home runs. While 77% will not lead to a .300 batting average, it should translate into a .250-.260 power guy playing first. The other knock against Goldschmidt is his defense is average at best, meaning he’ll have to hit to make it in the majors. I’m betting he will.

43. Anthony Ranaudo – RHP (Red Sox)

Another very large human at 6’ 7” and 230, Ranaudo brings a plus fastball sitting 92-94MPH as well as a plus curve to the mound. Given his height and resulting downward plane, Ranaudo is a tough guy to pickup but also will struggle with his arm slot and command.

44. Will Middlebrook – 3B (Red Sox)

Middlebrook was signed out of high school as an overslot 5th round pick and really struggled in his first three years of pro-ball. However, at age 22, Middlebrook is starting to put things together and the raw power is starting to translate into home runs – hitting 13 so far this year. Middlebrook’s swing is a little long, so strikeouts will be a problem.

45. Wilin Rosario – C (Rockies)

Was having a breakout year in 2010, when knee surgery cut his season short in AA Tulsa. This year, in 66 games, he’s hit 12 bombs but is only batting .254 and shows a lack of plate patience. Defensively, Rosario has a plus arm and handles pitchers very well. While not perfect, there’s a lot to like here.

46. Yasmani Grandal – C (Reds)

Grandal is the second Cincinnati catcher on this list, which would imply one of them will be trade bait down the line. While Grandal doesn’t have the upside of Mesoraco, he still has the offensive skill set to become an elite backstop and hit in the middle of the lineup. Plus power and a great approach to hitting.

47. Nolan Arenado – 3B (Rockies)

Drafted in the second round in 2008, Arenado has a plus hit tool with gap power that should eventually translate into 20-25 home run power in the majors. In High-A Modesto, he’s got an elite 88% contact rate and a passable 8% walk rate. The big step and proving ground will be his promotion to AA Mobile.

48. Jose Altuve – 2B (Astros)

Everybody in baseball is pulling for Jose Altuve. The diminutive 2B from Venezuela not only plays hard and is spark on the field, the guy can really hit. This year in the California league, he batted .408 with 19 stolen bases and 5 home runs, which earned him a promotion to AA Corpus Christi, where he has continued to hit, batting .360 with 4 more bombs in a 149 AB’s. People are starting to believe that the 5’ 5” or so little guy can be a full-time regular in the majors. Don’t be surprised if Altuve gets a September call-up this year and winds up in the opening day lineup in 2012.

49. Allen Webster – RHP (Dodgers)

Allen Webster doesn’t have the sexy name of Drew, Julio, or Tyler but his pitching has been pretty sexy so far. After striking out 62 in 46.1 innings while only walking 21, he earned a promotion to AA, where he hasn’t dominated but has pitched well enough to give scouts encouragement that he can be a mid-rotation plus pitcher.

50. Cheslor Cuthbert – 3B (Royals)

Signed in 2009 for a 1.35M signing bonus, the now 18-year Cuthbert is showing that he might have been a bargain. He’s batting .335 in Low-A Kane County and showing that he has not only a good approach to hitting 27K/13BB in 155 AB, but power, hitting 6 bombs. Mouse, Hose, Myers, et. al have gotten all the pub, but watch out for Cuthbert.

51. Matt Szczur – OF (Cubs)

Last spring, Szczur picked baseball over football as he signed a complicated deal with the Cubs. When drafted, scouts knew Szczur had plus plus speed but worried that he would hit enough. So far, that has not been a problem as he batted .314 in the Midwest league to go along with 28 stolen bases. He’s a bit of a slappy hitter, so don’t expect a lot of power once fully developed.