Monday, October 31, 2011

2011 Arizona Fall League Prospects - Peoria Javelinas

Part four of my AFL Prospect Preview takes us to the Peoria Javalinas.  In case you're wondering, a Javalina is a skunk pig.  I can't say that I've ever seen a Javalina outside of Wikipedia, but something tells me it would make a lousy pet.

The Peoria Javelinas are comprised of players from the Brewers, Cardinals, Mariners, Mets, and Padres.

Seattle LHP: Danny Hultzen


Danny Hultzen was taken with the #3 pick in the 2011 amateur draft by the Seattle Mariners. He possess a 91-94MHP fast ball with a good slider and change-up. The thing that sets Hultzen apart is his excellent command and polished approach to pitching. While his ceiling might not be as high as some of other standout pitchers in the 2011 draft, he should quickly work through the system with a 2012 major league appearance in the cards.

Milwaukee LHP: Jed Bradley

Taken with the #15 pick in the 2011 amateur draft, Bradley is a power lefty with a major league frame at 6-4 and 225 lbs. His fastball sits at 88-94MPH with sink; which is a broad range and therefore shows some inconsistencies. He also has a plus slider and his change-up is decent for a college pitcher, but will need to improve. Scouts love his makeup and believe he will quickly advance through the system.

St. Louis 1B: Matt Adams

Matt Adams is a large human listed at 6-3 and 230 lbs but could easily weigh 260-270 or more. Drafted in the 23rd round in the 2009 draft, Adams has exceeded expectations by hitting for power in both Single-A (22 home runs) and Double-A (32 home runs). The hit tool is also surprising with an 81% contact rate and 8.5% walk rate. If Pujols moves on, St. Louis could look to the lefty slugger as a solution.

Seattle SS: Nick Franklin

Big things were expected from Nick Franklin as he joined the hitter friendly California league after a 23 home run campaign in the Low-A Midwest league in 2010. However, Franklin disappointed and only hit 5 home runs but had a nice contact and walk rate. Similar results remained as he moved to Double-A. Scouts are still bullish on the potential and at 21 years-old, there’s still a lot of development left.

San Diego 3B: Jedd Gyorko

Short and squat at 5-10 and 195 lbs, Jedd Gyorko posses a great hit tool with nice bat speed and above average power potential. In 2011, he had an excellent 80% contact rate and 11% walk rate. Based on his lack of athleticism, Gyorko may eventually move to a corner outfield spot. While he demonstrated power in the hitter friendly CAL league, the home runs didn't follow him to Double-A. Gyorko is really raking in the AFL, batting .388 with 3 home runs and 1.106 OPS.

Cardinals OF: Oscar Taveras(Pronounced Oh-scar)

One of the youngest players at 19 years-old in the AFL, Taveras has a great lefty hit-tool with a quick level swing that barrels the ball. While he has a very aggressive swing, he doesn't strike-out a lot. He currently has gap to gap power that should translate into 15-20 home run power at full development. The open question for the young Taveras…will a .300 average with 20 home run potential be enough to stick at a corner outfield or does this profile as a fourth outfielder? He is currently batting .283 in 46 at-bats in the AFL.

Friday, October 28, 2011

2011 Arizona Fall League Prospects - Mesa Solar Sox

The third installment in our AFL preview takes us to the Mesa Solar Sox and players from the Cubs, Orioles, Pirates, Twins and White Sox.  The hype is all around the 2011 #1 draft pick Gerritt Cole and he has not disappointed.

Below are some of the more interesting prospects on the team.

Pittsburgh RHP: Gerritt Cole

Cole was the 2011 #1 overall pick in the amateur draft out of UCLA. He has elite stuff with an upper 90's fastball, a nasty change-up and an improving slider. He was being compared at the beginning of the college season to Stephen Strasburg, but scouts quickly realized that while the stuff is there, the command is lacking. A 6-4 and 220lbs, Cole should have the body to endure 200+ innings at the major league level. In his highly anticipated AFL debut, Cole did not disappoint; lighting up the radar with several triple digit readings.

Chicago Cubs RHP: Trey McNutt

Signed in the 32nd round of the 2009 amateur draft, McNutt flew up prospect lists in 2010 by combining a 94-96MPH fastball with a nasty two-plane slider. High expectations turned into disappointment as a complete mechanical breakdown in 2011 resulted in a 65K/39BB rate in 95 IP in Double-A. In limited exposure in the AFL, it’s been more of the same with four walks in 9.0 IP and a .342 against. McNutt might be destined for the bullpen where can throw with maximum effort for an inning.

Pittsburgh OF: Robbie Grossman

Grossman has lots of average to above average tools, but doesn’t have that one tool that scouts can call elite. He does have a tremendous batting eye and approach which resulted in 104 walks in 490 at-bats in High-A. Roll it all together and his stat line this year was 13 home runs, 24 stolen bases while batting .294. Grossman has continued to hit in the AFL, batting .377 with 6 home runs and maybe the elite tool that he really has is that he can flat out play.

Minnesota OF: Aaron Hicks

Scouts fall in love with tools and Aaron Hicks has a ton of them. The problem is his ability to hit has yet to catch up to his athleticism. Part of the problem is the 78 walks he took in 443 at-bats this year in the Class-A Florida State League. Scouts look for aggressive hitters with a good eye but Hicks is just passive at the plate. He doesn’t swing at good pitches and then gets himself into poor hitting counts resulting in weak contact. In the final two months of the season, Hicks batted a paltry .195. At 22 years-old and likely to repeat Single-A, Hicks needs to start figuring things out. So far in the AFL, it’s more of the same – 59 at-bats, 10 walks and a .254 average but with 3 home runs and 3 stolen bases.

Chicago Cubs 3B: Josh Vitters

Taken as the #3 overall pick in the 2007 amateur draft, Josh Vitters has a beautiful right-handed stroke that makes elite contact (85-87%). His power potential is average to above average. The main problem with Vitters is he swings at everything, walking 22 times in 488 plate appearance. Additionally, because his approach is so poor, he swings at many bad pitches and much of the contact he makes is weak. His focus at the AFL is patience and so far, he’s doing well. In 58 at-bats, he’s batting .328 with 2 home runs and 4 walks. There might be hope here.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

2011 Arizona Fall League Prospects - Surprise Saguros

Part 2 takes us to the Surprise Saguros and players from the  Braves, Marlins, Rays, Rangers, and Royals.  The depth of the squad is decent in prospects but definitely a step down from the Scottsdale team.

Below are some of the more interesting prospects on the team.

Texas RHP: Neil Ramirez

Promoted from Single-A to Triple-A this year, Ramirez has started to show why he was a supplemental pick in the 2007 draft. Ramirez has put things together this year with a fastball that sits 93-94MPH, a plus curve and an above average change-up. There is definitely potential for Ramirez to make the starting rotation in 2012 or be one of the first callups.

Atlanta catcher: Christian Bethancourt

Scouts are excited about the defensive capability of Bethancourt as he threw out 47% of base runners in the Carolina league. The question has always been…will he hit enough? He has good hand-eye coordination and some raw power but is very aggressive at the plate. In 166 AB’s in the Carolina league, he walked 3 times. He’s batting .333 in 36 AB’s but does have a walk in the AFL.

Tampa SS: Tim Beckham

Tim Beckham was the #1 overall pick in the 2008 amateur draft by the Tampa Rays and has not yet lived up to expectations. He started to display some power this year, hitting 12 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A where he also added 17 stolen bases. Scouts still see the tools and he is only 21 years old. He’s batting .260 with 2 home runs and 3 stolen bases in the AFL.

Texas OF: Leonys Martin

I didn’t necessarily believe the hype surrounding the signing of Martin, but clearly he has a plus hit tool with above average speed and power. In 302 at-bats in the minors, Martin had an 88% contact rate to go along with a 9% walk rate. He also managed to steal 19 bases but did get thrown out 11 times. He’s had limited at-bats so far in the AFL.

Royals OF: Wil Myers

A nasty knee infection slowed the development for Wil Myers in 2011, but the hit tool remains solid. While the move to the outfield will accelerate his path to the majors, the dream of an elite hitting prospect behind the plate is gone. In many 2011 pre-season list, Myers was a top 20 prospect but based on his 2011 season, his ranking could very well fall. However, don’t be fooled, Myers has tremendous upside and he’s playing very well so far in the AFL, batting .396 with 2 home runs in 48 at-bats.

Marlins 3B: Matt Dominguez

Dominguez possess one of the best gloves at any position in the minors but the inability to hit off-speed pitches as well as injuries continue to slow the progress of Dominguez to the big league. His start to the AFL has also been slow, batting .227 in a limited sample size of 44 at-bats with 2 home runs.

Texas 3B: Mike Olt

Mike Olt is strong and selective at the plate but needs to cut down on the strikeouts. Unfortunately, a broken collar bone in June retarded his growth, so his involvement in the AFL is important. So far in the AFL, he’s batting .291 with a league leading 6 home runs.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

2011 Arizona Fall League Prospects - Scottsdale Scorpions

I'll be doing a series of six blog posts over the next week to highlight some of the best prospects participating in the Airzona Fall League (AFL) this year. For those of you not familiar with the AFL, it's a league that was established to allow major league baseball teams a venue to send their top prospects. Since all the stadiums in the Phoenix area are close together, it's a great opportunity to see dozens of top prospects over the course of the two months season.


Given the start date of early October, the AFL has turned primarily into a hitters league as teams are reluctant to send young pitchers who have already thrown 120+ innings. There are exceptions as many of the top college pitchers drafted in the June amateur draft are competing. For instance:  Gerritt Cole, Danny Hultzen, and Matt Purke made their professional debut during this year's AFL.

We start the series off with the dream team this year, the Scottsdale Scorpions. The Scorpions are comprised of players from the Angels, Giants, Nationals, Phillies, and Red Sox. So for two months, we get to see Bryce Harper and Mike Trout playing in the same outfield.

Here's a breakdown of the top eight players on the team.


Washington LHP: Matt Purke


Matt Purke was hoping to be one of the top picks in the 2011 amateur draft but bursitis in his pitching shoulder zapped his velocity and by the spring, his fastball was sitting in the upper 80’s. The Nationals believe they got a bargain by selecting Purke in the 3rd round, but advisor Scott Boras, still managed to get him a major league deal with a $2.8M signing bonus. If healthy, Purke has elite stuff with a fastball that sits 92-94, an above average two-plane slider and a work-in-progress change-up. All that said, the start to the AFL has not been good for Purke. In 2.1 innings, he’s given up 6 runs including a home run. More importantly, his fastball has been flat and sitting at 90-92MPH.

Washington Catcher: Derek Norris

Derek Norris strikes out a ton and walks a ton but he’s a catcher with power, so that has a tendency to make him relevant. In Double-A, Norris had a 65% contact rate and 23% walk rate, but you add it all up and you get a .210 batting average. He has improved his defense considerably this year, so his offene will not have to carry him as much.

Boston 3B: Will Middlebrooks

Will Middlebrooks is a big strong athletic player at 6-4 and 200lbs with above average bat speed and power to all fields. His strikeouts were high in Double-A with 95 K’s in 371 at-bats, which if not corrected will cause concerns as he moves into Triple-A with a potential call-up to the Red Sox in September of 2012. In 44 at-bats in the AFL, Middlebrooks is batting .227 with 3 home runs and 15 strikeouts.

San Francisco SS: Joe Panik

San Francisco went conservative in the 2011 draft and selected shortstop Joe Panik with the 29th overall pick. Panik signed early and headed off to the short-season Northwest league, raked, and won the MVP of the league batting .341 with 6 home runs and 13 stolen bases in 270 at-bats. Most impressive is he had more walks than strikeouts (25K/28BB). Scouts are anxious to see what he can do in the AFL against more advance pitching. So far in 41 at-bats, he’s batting .244 but with only three strikeouts and five walks. Interesting to say the least.

Los Angeles SS: Jean Segura

Hamstring problems hindered the explosive Jean Segura this year but there is a lot of talent in the 21-year old Dominican shortstop. He projects as a plus hit tool with great plate discipline, a plus runner, and a plus defender at either SS or 2B. His power is emerging, with a 15-20 home run production not out of the question. Fully healed, Segura is batting .325 in 40 at-bats in the early going in the AFL.

San Francisco OF: Gary Brown

If you’re looking for a future MLB stolen base champion, it could very well be Gary Brown. Brown has blazing 80-grade speed and amassed 53 steals on 72 attempts in High-A this year. His batting approach has turned out to better than scouts predicted showing decent plate discipline (8.0 BB rate). Brown will likely start the 2012 season in Double-A but there are rumors that he will skip directly to Triple-A.

Washington OF: Bryce Harper

Listed by many as the #1 or #1a prospect in all of baseball, Harper has true 80 grade raw power that could translate into 40+ home runs in the majors. He’ll have decent speed initially (10-15 stolen bases per year) but as the body fills out, the speed will diminish. Make-up is still a question, but A-Rod is not the most pleasant guy and has 600 home runs.

Los Angeles OF: Mike Trout

Listed by many as the #1 or #1a prospect in all of baseball, Trout posses 80 grade speed with a plus bat, plus defensive skills, and growing power. A scary comp is Carl Crawford with more power or Grady Sizemore (circa 2008) with a .300 batting average. His make-up is off the charts as is illustrated by his participation in the AFL. After a long season that included significant playing time in the majors in September, Trout is here.