Fantasy Basketball , more than any other Fantasy Sport, is about the draft. Not only do you have mathematics working against you as most typical leagues play ten players, it's hard to find undrafted players that make a huge difference throughout the year.
In baseball, there's an extensive minor league organization in which each MLB team has hundreds of players that it is developing. In football, teams carry multiple skilled players that have historically played well when a top flight starter goes out. Look at Matt Cassel vs. Tom Brady last year. Yes, Brady owners saw a decrease in production once Cassel was given the job, but Cassel still managed to be a top ten QB last year. That just doesn't happen in the NBA. The D-League, the NBA's minor league system, has developed very few NBA players and no current players in the top 50.
Since the draft is so critical, who you draft in the first five rounds will set the tone for your season. While there are countless ways to create your team and draft position does play a role, selecting an elite point guard followed by a second tier point guard in the first five rounds will provide you a great base for your team. Otherwise, you'll be employing complicated schemes to make up for the lost of assists, steals, and possible three-point shooting.
To make the point, let's take a look at the data. In this year's projections, the top ten assist leaders will provide 20% of the assist total of the top 100 players. This compares to 15% in rebounding and 14% in scoring. The bell curve clearly gets flatter with the categories of rebounding and scoring as both are more plentiful per player than assists.
The steal category follows a similar statistical profile to assist. The top ten steal leaders provide 17% of the total steals out of the top 100 ranked NBA players; slightly less than assist, but more than rebounding and scoring. Punctuating the value of the point guard, five of the top ten leaders in steals during the 2008-2009 season were point guards.
The top tier point guards for the 2009-2010 season
If you believe the calculus behind choosing an elite point guard early in your draft, the next logical question is: "Which point guard out of the 30 NBA teams should I be drafting as my primary point guard?"
- Chris Paul – Clearly a no-brainer pick as Paul will provide double digit assists per game (APG), 2.5-3.0 steals per game (SPG), and nearly a three-pointer a game. Throw in elite FG% and FT% and 20+ points a game, and Paul is the best Fantasy Player in the league.
- Deron Williams – The second point guard off the board, Deron Williams will provide double digit APG but not elite steals or three-point shooting. However, the projected 11.1 APG is hard to pass up, but by selecting Williams, you'll need to cover steals by picking up a player like Trevor Ariza late in the draft.
- Steve Nash – Yes he had an off season last year, but the combination of double digit APG and nearly 2.0 three-pointers, still makes Steve Nash a PG in which you can build your team around. As with Williams, you'll need to pick up steals later in the draft.
- Jason Kidd – Year after year, Kidd provides the statistical base to anchor your team from the point. He'll get you 8.0-9.0 APG as well as 2.0 SPG and 1.5-1.8 three-pointers. Don't worry too much about his point contribution or below average FG%. You can make up the points elsewhere and his projected 7.2 shots per game are below league average and therefore won't kill your field goal category.
- Rajon Rondo – Is growing into the next Jason Kidd without the three-point shooting, but therefore, better FG%. Rondo will provide you 8.5.-9.0 APG and elite steal contribution at 2.0 SPG. The only knock on his game is this below league average FT%, which will improve over time.
- Jose Calderon – While Rajon Rondo is growing into the next Jason Kidd, Jose Calderon is growing into Steve Nash. Calderon will provide you elite APG at 9.0-9.5 while also providing 1.0 SPG and 1.5 three-pointers. The worry with Calderon is his ability to stay on the court.
- Chauncey Billups –Chauncey Billups has provided elite contribution from all three categories throughout his career. This year expect 6.8-7.0 APG, 1.5-1.8 SPG, and 2.0-2.2 three-pointers. While an aging superstar, Billups still has the profile to be your primary point guard.
- Devin Harris – Had his breakout season last year and should provide 6.8 to 7.0 APG combined with 1.6 SPG and 1.1 three-pointers. While you'd like to see more assists per game, Harris still has the statistical profile of a top 10 pure point guard, but with the side benefit of 22.0 to 24.0 points per game.
- Tony Parker – A similar player to Devin Harris, Parker will provide 6.8 APG and 1.0 SPG, but will chip in 22.0 points a game.
- Russell Westbrook – Westbrook breaks into the top 10 this year based on his nice rookie season. You can expect 7.0 APG and 1.5-1.8 SPG along with 15.0-16.0 points per game. Solid production across the board.
In reviewing the list, there is a clear advantage in assist contribution with the first six point guards. While Harris, Parker, Billups, and Westbrook will provide a nice base, one strategy to cover assists and steals is to go back-to-back with point guards in the third, fourth, or fifth round. Assuming you've picked points and rebounds in the first couple of rounds, that strategy should prove very beneficial.
If you're fortunate enough to get one of the top three point guards, drafting a second tier guard in round five is also a winning strategy. Imagine a team of Chris Paul and Andre Miller or Deron Williams and Mike Conley. Now that's a winning strategy!
