We now move up the list to prospects #51 to #75. As with all lists, these rankings are a compilation of hands-on scouting, dialogs with scouts and industry experts, as well as statistical analysis. While I try to be logical, I have my favorites, as everyone does, and I have a tendency to stuff those higher on the list (i.e. Schoop) as well as guys that I just don't buy into fully (Cosart and Jackson).
Once again, Markus Potter and I will be doing a special podcast on BlogTalkradio, Wednesday, December 28th at 9pm EST. http://tinyurl.com/cwv2jjt . This broadcast is on the same feed as our weekly Fantasy Baseball show, which airs every Sunday at 10pm and is the #1 Sports Show on BTR.
51. Jonathan Schoop – 2B (Baltimore Orioles)
Many people are starting to call Jonathan Schoop a poor man’s Manny Machado. While Machado is ranked well ahead of Schoop, as Schoop continues to mature, the comp is starting to make a lot of sense. Schoop progressed to High-A as a 19-year old and showed a nice batting approach with an 85% contact rate and a decent 8% walk rate. Additionally, as Schoop’s 6-2 185lbs body fills out, he projects to be a plus power hitter with 20 home run power. While he stole 12 bases in 2011, don’t look for this to continue, particularly as he fills out.
52. Oscar Taveres – OF (St. Louis Cardinals)
Taveras has a great lefty hit-tool with a quick level swing that barrels the ball. While he has a very aggressive swing, he doesn't strike-out a lot. He currently has gap to gap power that should translate into 15-20 home run power at full development. The open question for the young Taveras…will a .300 average with 15-20 home run potential be enough to stick at a corner outfield or does this profile as a fourth outfielder? Remember, Taveres was one of the youngest players in Low-A and was the second youngest player to be invited to the 2011 Arizona Fall League.
53. Randall Delgado – RHP (Atlanta Braves)
With the big three pitching prospects in Atlanta all having their chance at the major leagues in 2011, it was Randall Delgado that pitched the best. At 6-3 and 200lbs, Delgado has the body type at full maturity that should allow him to log big innings in the majors. His stuff is very good as he throws a low to mid 90’s fastball to go along with a plus curve ball. His control projects to be above average, although he does struggle with his mechanics as is evidence by his 135K/57BB strikeout to walk ratio.
54. Jake Odorizzi – RHP (Kansas City Royals)
With many of the elite Kansas City prospects graduating in 2011 and some others playing poorly, Jake Odorizzi has moved up dramatically. Odorizzi is extremely athletic and posses a 92-94MPH fastball with nice late movement that allows him to pitch up in the zone. His curveball and change-up are improving and both project to be above average offerings.
55. Francisco Lindor – SS (Cleveland Indians)
In the 2011 draft, few high-school players created more late buzz than Francisco Lindor. At first it was all about his glove which projects to be plus with the ability to stay at shortstop. However, as he continued with private workouts, teams got excited about his offensive ability, particularly his ability to drive balls to all fields. Reports out of the Fall instructional league continue to be very bullish on the 17-year old with some comparing him to Jurikson Profar.
56. Nick Franklin –SS (Seattle Mariners)
At 6-1 and 170 lbs, Nick Franklin doesn’t look like a guy that can hit 20 home runs. However, in 2010 he hit 23 home runs and while he regressed to just seven in 2011, scouts believe in the power. While Franklin is an aggressive hitter, he still managed to make contact 78% of the time in 2011. The big concern is will he stay at shortstop? Many scouts believe that a move to second base will eventually occur and for the Mariners, that could cause problems as that position is currently occupied by Dustin Ackley.
57. Trevor May – RHP (Philadelphia Phillies)
The once loaded Philadelphia Phillies minor league system has become quickly barren as several major trades over the past two years were made to bolster their major league club. There are still several blue chip prospects including Trevor May, the 4th round draft choice in the 2008 draft. May has a pro body at 6-5 and 215 lbs and has swing and miss stuff as demonstrated by his 208 strikeouts in 151.1 innings in High-A. His fastball sits in the low 90’s but because of the downhill plane, will play up. He secondary pitches are improving, most notably his curve. The command still needs improvement and as with most young pitchers, will determine the speed in which he makes it to the big leagues.
58. Jarred Cosart – RHP (Houston Astros)
Jarred Cosart became more of a household name after his impressive showing in the 2011 Futures Game. In fact, that performance went a long way to him being included in the trade that sent Hunter Pence to the Phillies. While the stuff appears to be there, the results are not. In 2011, across High-A and Double-A, Cosart struck out 101 batters in 144.1 innings while walking 56. Additionally, his mechanics are not clean as he throws across his body and has significant scapular loading. Candidly, I’m not buying the package just yet and have dropped his ranking considerably from last year.
59. Archie Bradley – RHP (Arizona Diamondbacks)
While a lot of the high-school pitching hype in the 2011 draft was around Dylan Bundy, many scouts believe Archie Bradley’s upside is as good if not better. Bradley has a pro body at 6-4 and 225lbs and can light up a gun by throwing in the upper 90’s and even tapping out in triple digits. He already posses a nasty curve that when combined with fastball should result in a lot of swing and misses. Expect Bradley to start out in Low-A next year and move quickly.
60. Tim Wheeler OF (Colorado Rockies)
Taken in the first round in 2009, Tim Wheeler played poorly in 2010, hitting only .249 in the hitter friendly confines of Modesto in the CAL league. He’s turned that around in 2011 by slamming 33 home runs and batting .287 in Double-A Tulsa. His .287 average is being supported by a fairly high BABIP but when taken all together, there’s a lot to like with Wheeler.
61. Rymer Liriano – OF (San Diego Padres)
If you rate Rymer Liriano’s on his April performance, it was a failure as he flat out didn’t hit in High-A going 7 for 55. Granted it was a small sample size, but the Padres decided to move him back to Low-A where he finished 2010 (where candidly he didn’t play great) and subsequently blew-up, taking home MVP honors. Liriano has quick strong hands that allow him to move quickly through the zone and produce decent power. In 2011, he had an 80% contract rate, an 11% walk rate to go along with 12 home runs. But Liriano is really about speed, stealing 65 bases in 85 attempts in Low-A.
62. Xander Bogaerts – 2B/3B (Boston Red Sox)
The scouting reports on Xander Boagaerts are glowing. Strong hands, quick bat with power potential. As an 18-year in the Low-A SAL League, Bogaerts showed an aggressive style by striking out 71 times in 265 at bats but hit an impressive 16 home runs. Scouts also talk about his make-up and believe he will quickly figure out the strike zone and could develop into a plus hit tool. The big question is his position. He’s currently playing shortstop but will either move to 2B or 3B next year.
63. Casey Kelly – RHP (San Diego Padres)
Drafted as a pitcher/shortstop by Boston in the first round of the 2008 draft, it didn’t take long for Kelly to realize that the bump was going to be his home. Kelly has a nice arsenal with the ability to throw his fastball in the low 90’s and hit 95. He’s got an above average curve and a plus change-up. The pitchability is not yet there as the results are underwhelming based on the stuff (105K/46BB in 142.1 innings). For fantasy players, the move to Petco will increase his value.
64. Billy Hamilton – SS (Cincinnati Reds)
Billy Hamilton stole 103 bases last year. Let that settle in for a moment. We are talking game changing speed ala Vince Coleman of the 1980’s St. Louis Cardinals. If you’ve not seen Hamilton, he is rail thin and that is what has everyone nervous. The big question is will he be able to stand in there against hard throwers as he moves to the upper minors? While he strikes out a lot (26% strikeout rate), he did barrel the ball more as the season wore on, even hitting 18 doubles along the way. With his crazy speed, Hamilton might be the most intriguing prospect in all of baseball, particularly if you are a fantasy player.
65. Kotlen Wong – 2B (St. Louis Cardinals)
Second baseman are generally not born but are instead made as a result of the inability to play shortstop or sometimes third base. So it’s rare that a pure 2B gets drafted, but that is what the World Champion Cardinals did with Kolten Wong in the 2011 draft. Wong signed quickly and took advantage of his 194 at bats in the MidWest league, batting .335 with an impressive 24K/20BB ratio. He also contributed 5 home runs but with his strong wrist and quick swing, projects to have 15-20 home run power. While he doesn’t have blazing speed, he should be able to steal 20 bases as well.
66. Christian Yelich – OF (Miami Marlins)
Drafted out of high school in the first round of the 2011 draft, Christian Yelich is already showing a great approach at the plate with speed and surprising power. In Low-A, Yelich batted .312 with a 102K/55B rate in 461 at bats. While the strikeouts are a little high, it’s not bad for a teenager’s first foray into professional ball. The 32 stolen bases out of 37 shows elite stolen bases ability and the 15 home runs are also encouraging.
67. Anthony Gose – OF (Toronto Blue Jays)
Gose is another in a long-line of toolsy players that is learning how to hit...but boy are the tools good. In Double-A, Gose stole 70 bases and hit 16 home runs but struck out 154 times in 509 AB’s. Unless Gose can improve the hit tool, his staying power, no matter how good the tools are, will be difficult.
68. Will Middlebrook – 3B (Boston Red Sox)
Will Middlebrooks is a big strong athletic player at 6-4 and 200lbs with above average bat speed and power to all fields. His strikeouts were high in Double-A with 95 K’s in 371 at-bats, which if not corrected will cause concerns as he moves into Triple-A with a potential call-up to the Red Sox in September of 2012.
69. Nick Castellanos -3B (Detroit Tigers)
Signed in the supplemental round in the 2010 draft for an aggressive $3.45M signing bonus, Nick Castellanos showed the plate approach that the Tigers envisioned. In 507 at bats in Low-A, he struck out 130 times and walked 45 times. Given his size at 6-4, most believe that as Castellanos fills out, his power will increase to 20-25 home runs.
70. Brett Jackson –OF (Chicago Cubs)
The Cubs drafted Brett Jackson in the first round of the 2009 draft and saw a power/speed guy that could be a first division starter. So far, he’s demonstrated the speed and power as was evidence by his 2011 production. Across Double-A and Triple-A in 2011, he hit 21 home runs and stole 20 bases. So why is he sitting at #70? I just don’t believe in the hit tool. There’s a lot of swing and miss in his stroke as he has a definitive two stage swing. Until he adjusts the swing to make better contact, the 20/20 production will come with a lot of batting average downside.
71. Oswaldo Arcia – OF (Minnesota Twins)
Signed out of Venezuela at the ripe old age of 16, Oswaldo Arcia is starting to produce on the promise. Arcia has great bat speed combined with plus power. Elbow surgery did slow Arcia’s progression in 2011 but he was still able to put up 13 home runs in 292 at bats across Low-A and High-A. He should return to High-A to start 2012 and assuming there is no lingering problems from the elbow, he could be poised for a real breakout.
72. Corey Spangenberg – 2B (San Diego Padres)
Corey Spangenberg was taken with the #10 pick in the 2011 draft, signed quickly and then tore up the Northwest league in 84 limited at bats. His plus-speed was on full display as he managed to steal 10 bases across that span. Spangenberg projects to have a plus hit tool with a .300 average not out of the question. He makes great contact and has a great eye at the plate.
73. Cheslor Cuthbert – 3B (Kansas City Royals)
Cheslor Cuthbert was one of the youngest players in the MidWest league during 2011 season at 18 years old. He posses a lot of strength and bat speed, showing an advance approach at the plate that should project to an above average hit tool and power tool. While he played very well in the first half, he did play poorly in the second half. Was he simply tired or was there something else going on?
74. A.J. Cole – RHP (Washington Nationals)
If you look at the 4.04 ERA and 1.24 WHIP from A.J. Cole, you’re looking in the wrong place. In 89.0 innings in Low-A in 2011, Cole had 108 strikeouts in 89.0 innings and only 24 walks. Drafted in the fourth round in 2010 to a large $2M signing bonus, A.J. Cole’s velocity increased as the season wore on to sit 94-95MPH with obvious command and the ability to cut or sink the ball. His curve is inconsistent but the Nats are confident that he can spin it. With a major league body and projection at 6-4 and 180, you need to keep your eye on A.J. Cole as he moves to High-A in 2012.
75. Drew Hutchinson – RHP (Toronto Blue Jays)
Drew Hutchinson was one of the more impressive pitchers in the Toronto Blue Jays system, progressing through three levels (Low-A, High-A, and Double-A) while striking out an impressive 171 batters in 149.1 and walking only 35. Part of the success comes through a deceptive delivery as his stuff is good but not great. He has an 89-93 fastball, through deception, explodes and sinks (1.33 GO/AO) when it gets to the plate. His change-up is also above average but the curve still needs work as it has a tendency to get slurvy.
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Saturday, December 10, 2011
2012 Top 100 Prospects - #76 - #101
Today marks the beginning of my 2012 Top 101 prospects review. In this post, we'll be looking at prospects #101 to #76. Additionally, I'll be doing a special podcast on Monday, December 12th at 9pm to discuss - http://tinyurl.com/bshy6e3.
76. Bryce Brentz – OF (Boston Red Sox)
Drafted in the Supplement Round of the 2010 draft, Bryce Brentz’s calling card is his plus-plus raw power. Across Low-A and High-A in 2011, Brentz belted 30 home runs but did have some contact problems (75%) as his swing will get long as he tries to muscle up. 2012 will be an important year for Brentz as he moves to Double-A and more advanced pitching.
77. John Lamb – LHP (Kansas City Royals)
John Lamb, Danny Duffy, and Mike Montgomery were the lefties of the future for the Kansas Royals. Duffy made it to the show and had limited success, Montgomery lost his command and Lamb had Tommy John Surgery. Best laid plans… While there is now considerable risk placed on John Lamb as not everyone recovers from TJS, the talent is still there. His fastball sits at 92-94MPH with above average control and command and his curve and change-up both flash plus. Three above average pitches with above average command? I’ll take it, TJS or not.
78. Grant Green – SS/OF (Oakland A’s)
Drafted as a shortstop, moved to second, and now it appears he will make his way to the majors as an outfielder. Grant Green is a nice athletic player with an upside of a solid regular. Fans in particular got excited in 2010 when he hit 20 home runs in the California league, but for many young players, the power leaves upon promotion to Double-A. I would look for a .270 player with 10-15 home run power and 10 stolen bases.
79. Jedd Gyorko – 3B (San Diego Padres)
When you first see Jedd Gyorko, you don’t think, “WOW, that guy looks like a ballplayer?????” Short and squat at 5-10 and 195 lbs, Jedd Gyorko posses a great hit tool with nice bat speed and above average power potential. In 2011, he had an excellent 80% contact rate and an 11% walk rate. Based on his lack of athleticism, Gyorko may eventually move to a corner outfield spot. While he demonstrated power in the hitter friendly CAL league, the home runs didn't follow him to Double-A.
80. Sonny Gray – RHP (Oakland A’s)
Sonny Gray is not a physically imposing pitcher, standing only 5-10 and weighing a nice squatty 200lbs. He is though a strikeout pitcher due to his plus power curve that is clearly a swing and miss pitch. He was able to get 22 innings in professional ball during 2011, primarily in Double-A and was impressive, striking out 20 battings and walking only 6. Look for Gray to start 2012 in Double-A with a potential September call-up.
81. Derek Norris – C (Washington Nationals)
Derek Norris appears to be your prototypical young catcher working his way to the majors. He has power as is evidence by his 20 home runs in Double-A in 2011 but he also struck out 117 times in 339 at bats. I’ll save you the trouble of running for your calculator, that’s a 65% contact rate. What might set him apart and make him a solid regular major leaguer is he’s a walk machine. Last year, he had a walk rate of 20% and in 2010, his walk rate was a ridiculous 30%.
82. Mason Williams – OF (New York Yankees)
Signed as a $1.45M overslot 4th round draftee in the 2010 draft, Mason Williams was one of the poster children for Bud Selig’s clamp down on draft spending. The early results are showing that Williams was well worth the money. With plus-plus speed and very good defensive centerfield skills, the Yankees revamped his swing to increase the time through the zone in order to drive more pitches. The results in 2011 were encouraging. In 289 at bats in the NY Penn league, Williams batted .349 with a decent .468 SLG while striking out only 41 times and walking 20 times. Oh yeah, he stole 28 bases.
83. Matt Szczur – OF (Chicago Cubs)
In 2010, Szczur picked baseball over football as he signed a complicated deal with the Cubs. When drafted, scouts knew Szczur had plus-plus speed but worried that he would hit enough. In 2011, that was not a problem as he batted .293 across Low-A in High-A to go along with 24 stolen bases. His contact rate was nearly 90% but his walk rate was a paltry 6%. He’s a bit of a slappy hitter, so don’t expect a lot of power once fully developed.
84. Zack Cox – 3B (St. Louis Cardinals)
Drafted as a first rounder in the 2010 draft, Cox signed for an impressive $3M signing bonus based on his hit tool. The hit tool did not fail in his first year of professional ball, batting .306 across High-A and Double-A with a 98K/40BB in 516 at bats. The concern when he came out of college was his ability to hit for power. In High-A, he hit only three home runs in the cavernous Florida State League but upon promotion to the more hitter friendly Texas League, he hit 10 bombs. With little speed and average defensive skills, Cox will need to develop some pop in order to be viewed as a first division starter.
85. Allen Webster – RHP (Los Angeles Dodgers)
At 21 years-old, Allen Webster is already deemed to be a very polished pitcher with a 92-94MPH fastball with heavy sink that produced a very high number of ground ball outs (1.76 GO/AO in 2011). He has a plus change-up with an improving curve and a great strikeout rate of 135K in 145 innings. With his stuff and command, it was surprising that he gave up a 101 hits in 90 innings in Double-A. Should we chalked it up to a very unlucky BABIP or is his stuff just hittable to more advanced hitters?
86. Nate Eovaldi - RHP (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Nate Eovaldi had Tommy John surgery in his junior year of high school and that scared many teams off from signing him. The Dodgers took the plunge in the 11th round and have been rewarded as Eovaldi made his major league debut at the ripe old age of 21. He wasn’t overly effective as he walked 20 in 35 innings but his stuff and minor league track record predict a promising future. Eovaldi throws a heavy 92-93MPH two-seam fastball hitting higher and causing lots of ground balls (GO/AO of 1.49). His curveball is above average and even flashes plus, while his change-up is still pretty fringy. While he might have been rushed, there’s a lot to like here.
87. George Springer – OF (Houston Astros)
After Anthony Rendon, many scouts considered George Springer to be the best college positional bat in the 2011 draft. He has a nice combination of power and speed but his swing can get a little long and is therefore prone to strikeout a lot. Scouts do love his make-up, so he should take instruction well and hopefully correct both his erratic approach and propensity to strikeout. While there is huge upside in Springer, it doesn’t come free.
88. Josh Bell – OF (Pittsburgh Pirates)
Josh Bell had everyone convinced that he was going to the University of Texas to play on a partial scholarship for three years. However, a $5M signing bonus plus a fund set aside to pay for four years at a University down the road goes a long way. Bell is blessed with tremendous physical gifts, including a lot of natural raw power and the ability to make hard contact. He is an older high school player and will actually turn 20 during his first year of pro ball but is also relatively advanced for most players coming directly from high school to professional ball.
89. Josh Vitters – 3B (Chicago Cubs)
Taken #3 overall in the 2007 draft, Josh Vitters continues to confound everybody in baseball. He has one of the best right-handed strokes in any level of professional baseball, but his approach is one of the worse. Without changes, Vitters will never become the elite player that the Cubs thought they drafted. Make-up is an overused phrase, but in my mind, a player who is unwilling to take instruction and continue to believe he has all the answers is the definition of bad make-up. Most thought last year was the make it or break it year, I’m giving it one more year.
90. Robbie Erlin – LHP (San Diego Padres)
If you look only at stats, Robbie Erlin looks like the best pitcher in the minors. In 2011, across High-A and Double-A, he struck out 154 batters in 147.1 innings while only walking 16. You know you have good control when you can name the guys you walked! The fastball is only average at 88-91MPH but since he throws strikes, he gets ahead of batters and puts them away with two plus secondary pitches -a nasty curve and even better change-up. The move to San Deigo is what has gotten me excited as I believe that profile will play well in the Petco Park and the poor offensive environment of the NL West.
91. Addison Reed – RHP (Chicago White Sox)
It’s a little frightening when the best prospect in an MLB organization is a relief pitcher, but that is the sad case with the Chicago White Sox and years of playing by the slot recommendation of Major League Baseball. That said, Addison Reed is a very good pitcher. With the ability to throw in the upper 90’s with a nasty slider and also an above average change-up, Reed could eventually profile as a starter but most scouts believe he will be most effective as an “all-out” late inning reliever. Don’t be shocked if Addison Reed becomes the White Sox closer as early as 2012, he’s that good.
92. Matt Davidson – 3B (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Drafted in the supplemental round of the 2009 draft, Matt Davidson brings a combination of a quick bat with a nice approach to the plate that should enable him to become a solid regular third baseman in the big leagues. In 2011 in High-A, Davidson hit 20 home runs but did strikeout an alarming 147 times in 535. Given his quick power stroke, this is hopefully more of being overly aggressive as opposed to have a flaw in his swing. Expect Davidson to start 2012 in Double-A.
93. Tyrell Jenkins – RHP (St. Louis Cardinals)
St. Louis is stacked with elite pitching prospects and while Tyrell Jenkins might be one of the lesser known pitching prospects, his stuff and athleticism are as good as anyone in the system. Jenkins was taken in the Supplemental Round of the 2010 draft with a $1.3M signing bonus to lure him away from Baylor as a wide receiver. Jenkins sits 93-96MPH with a tight 12-6 curve and an emerging change-up. He’ll move to full season ball next year at Low-A, where more fans will get a chance to see what all the excitement is about.
94. Joe Wieland – RHP (San Diego Padres)
Wieland was the other finesse pitcher in the Mike Adams trade at the 2011 trading deadline. His fastball ranges in the 88-92MPH range with a big breaking curve. His average change-up completes the arsenal. The results in 2011 across High-A and Double A were extremely impressive with 150 strikeouts in 155.2 inning with only 21 walks. As with Robbie Erlin, high control and command pitchers with average to above average stuff can play very well in Petco and the NL West.
95. Alex Meyer – RHP (Washington Nationals)
Alex Meyer is a high risk/high reward prospect. Taken as the 23rd pick in the 2011 draft, Meyer has great stuff with a plus 94-96MPH explosive fastball to go along with a plus-plus slider with late life and tilt. The problem is the control and at 6-9, he’s got a tough job ahead of him. In fact, many scouts don’t believe his control will ever get above average and that could eventually force him to the bullpen. His stuff is elite but whether he can harness and control the stuff is where the risk exists.
96. Starling Marte – OF (Pittsburgh Pirates)
I’m not sold on Starling Marte. On the positive side, he’s got plus-plus speed that translates into speed on the base path as well as excellent range in the outfield. In fact, he’s a joy to watch in the outfield, seemingly able to catch anything hit near him. The problem is an overly aggressive approach at the plate. Marte swings at everything, walking 22 times in 536 at bats in Double-A. Fortunately he does make contact and with his speed, has a chance to reach base frequently. Throw in some above average power and Marte has a chance to be a star if he can just temper his overly aggressive approach at the plate.
97. Justin Nicolino – LHP (Toronto Blue Jays)
Justin Nicolino was the best pitcher in the Northwest League in 2011 with a 64K/11B over 52 innings. Nicolino was drafted in the second round of the 2010 draft and at 19 years old, has a nice three pitch arsenal that includes a 90-92MPH fastball with a lot of sink (1.44 GO/AO rate). He’ll pick up where he left off in Low-A to start the 2012 season. With his maturity and arsenal, a mid season promotion to High-A seems reasonable.
98. Chad Bettis – RHP (Colorado Rockies)
Bettis was taken in the second round of the 2010 draft out of Texas Tech University. He has plus velocity, sitting 93-94 and touching higher. His secondary pitches are ok but still need work with an above average curve and a below average change-up. He pitched the entire 2011 season in the hitter friendly California league and dominated, striking out 184 in 169.2 and walking only 45. They key will be the development of his change-up. If it progresses, he could be a solid #3 with #2 upside. If not, he has a chance to be a late inning reliever.
99. Jed Bradley – LHP (Milwaukee Brewers)
Taken with the #15 pick in the 2011 amateur draft, Bradley is a power lefty with a major league frame at 6-4 and 225 lbs. His fastball sits at 88-94MPH with sink; which is a broad range and therefore shows some inconsistencies. He also has a plus slider and his change-up is decent for a college pitcher, but will need to improve. Scouts love his makeup and believe he will quickly advance through the system.
100. Javier Baez – SS (Chicago Cubs)
One of the better high school positional prospects in the 2011 draft, Javier Baez has a very quick bat with plus raw power. While he was drafted as a shortstop, most scouts believe he will outgrow the position and will have to move to 3B. He got very high marks in the Arizona Instructional League, which is good as the big black mark against Baez was a questionable make-up.
101. Luis Heredia – RHP (Pittsburgh Pirates)
Luis Heredia fits the profile of a #101 ranking in a Top 100 list – a kid who has sky high potential but with tremendous risk. Heredia who hails from Mexico, signed one of the largest international bonuses at $2.6M in 2010 for Pittsburgh. He’s a big kid at 6-6 and 205lbs and has an electric fastball that can flash in the upper 90’s. He’s already proven an ability to spin a curve and his change-up has flashed plus potential. Ignore the stats in the Gulf league because at 16-years old, what can you really expect? Next year, Heredia could be a legitimate Top 50 prospect or be put in the bucket of woulda/coulda.
76. Bryce Brentz – OF (Boston Red Sox)
Drafted in the Supplement Round of the 2010 draft, Bryce Brentz’s calling card is his plus-plus raw power. Across Low-A and High-A in 2011, Brentz belted 30 home runs but did have some contact problems (75%) as his swing will get long as he tries to muscle up. 2012 will be an important year for Brentz as he moves to Double-A and more advanced pitching.
77. John Lamb – LHP (Kansas City Royals)
John Lamb, Danny Duffy, and Mike Montgomery were the lefties of the future for the Kansas Royals. Duffy made it to the show and had limited success, Montgomery lost his command and Lamb had Tommy John Surgery. Best laid plans… While there is now considerable risk placed on John Lamb as not everyone recovers from TJS, the talent is still there. His fastball sits at 92-94MPH with above average control and command and his curve and change-up both flash plus. Three above average pitches with above average command? I’ll take it, TJS or not.
78. Grant Green – SS/OF (Oakland A’s)
Drafted as a shortstop, moved to second, and now it appears he will make his way to the majors as an outfielder. Grant Green is a nice athletic player with an upside of a solid regular. Fans in particular got excited in 2010 when he hit 20 home runs in the California league, but for many young players, the power leaves upon promotion to Double-A. I would look for a .270 player with 10-15 home run power and 10 stolen bases.
79. Jedd Gyorko – 3B (San Diego Padres)
When you first see Jedd Gyorko, you don’t think, “WOW, that guy looks like a ballplayer?????” Short and squat at 5-10 and 195 lbs, Jedd Gyorko posses a great hit tool with nice bat speed and above average power potential. In 2011, he had an excellent 80% contact rate and an 11% walk rate. Based on his lack of athleticism, Gyorko may eventually move to a corner outfield spot. While he demonstrated power in the hitter friendly CAL league, the home runs didn't follow him to Double-A.
80. Sonny Gray – RHP (Oakland A’s)
Sonny Gray is not a physically imposing pitcher, standing only 5-10 and weighing a nice squatty 200lbs. He is though a strikeout pitcher due to his plus power curve that is clearly a swing and miss pitch. He was able to get 22 innings in professional ball during 2011, primarily in Double-A and was impressive, striking out 20 battings and walking only 6. Look for Gray to start 2012 in Double-A with a potential September call-up.
81. Derek Norris – C (Washington Nationals)
Derek Norris appears to be your prototypical young catcher working his way to the majors. He has power as is evidence by his 20 home runs in Double-A in 2011 but he also struck out 117 times in 339 at bats. I’ll save you the trouble of running for your calculator, that’s a 65% contact rate. What might set him apart and make him a solid regular major leaguer is he’s a walk machine. Last year, he had a walk rate of 20% and in 2010, his walk rate was a ridiculous 30%.
82. Mason Williams – OF (New York Yankees)
Signed as a $1.45M overslot 4th round draftee in the 2010 draft, Mason Williams was one of the poster children for Bud Selig’s clamp down on draft spending. The early results are showing that Williams was well worth the money. With plus-plus speed and very good defensive centerfield skills, the Yankees revamped his swing to increase the time through the zone in order to drive more pitches. The results in 2011 were encouraging. In 289 at bats in the NY Penn league, Williams batted .349 with a decent .468 SLG while striking out only 41 times and walking 20 times. Oh yeah, he stole 28 bases.
83. Matt Szczur – OF (Chicago Cubs)
In 2010, Szczur picked baseball over football as he signed a complicated deal with the Cubs. When drafted, scouts knew Szczur had plus-plus speed but worried that he would hit enough. In 2011, that was not a problem as he batted .293 across Low-A in High-A to go along with 24 stolen bases. His contact rate was nearly 90% but his walk rate was a paltry 6%. He’s a bit of a slappy hitter, so don’t expect a lot of power once fully developed.
84. Zack Cox – 3B (St. Louis Cardinals)
Drafted as a first rounder in the 2010 draft, Cox signed for an impressive $3M signing bonus based on his hit tool. The hit tool did not fail in his first year of professional ball, batting .306 across High-A and Double-A with a 98K/40BB in 516 at bats. The concern when he came out of college was his ability to hit for power. In High-A, he hit only three home runs in the cavernous Florida State League but upon promotion to the more hitter friendly Texas League, he hit 10 bombs. With little speed and average defensive skills, Cox will need to develop some pop in order to be viewed as a first division starter.
85. Allen Webster – RHP (Los Angeles Dodgers)
At 21 years-old, Allen Webster is already deemed to be a very polished pitcher with a 92-94MPH fastball with heavy sink that produced a very high number of ground ball outs (1.76 GO/AO in 2011). He has a plus change-up with an improving curve and a great strikeout rate of 135K in 145 innings. With his stuff and command, it was surprising that he gave up a 101 hits in 90 innings in Double-A. Should we chalked it up to a very unlucky BABIP or is his stuff just hittable to more advanced hitters?
86. Nate Eovaldi - RHP (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Nate Eovaldi had Tommy John surgery in his junior year of high school and that scared many teams off from signing him. The Dodgers took the plunge in the 11th round and have been rewarded as Eovaldi made his major league debut at the ripe old age of 21. He wasn’t overly effective as he walked 20 in 35 innings but his stuff and minor league track record predict a promising future. Eovaldi throws a heavy 92-93MPH two-seam fastball hitting higher and causing lots of ground balls (GO/AO of 1.49). His curveball is above average and even flashes plus, while his change-up is still pretty fringy. While he might have been rushed, there’s a lot to like here.
87. George Springer – OF (Houston Astros)
After Anthony Rendon, many scouts considered George Springer to be the best college positional bat in the 2011 draft. He has a nice combination of power and speed but his swing can get a little long and is therefore prone to strikeout a lot. Scouts do love his make-up, so he should take instruction well and hopefully correct both his erratic approach and propensity to strikeout. While there is huge upside in Springer, it doesn’t come free.
88. Josh Bell – OF (Pittsburgh Pirates)
Josh Bell had everyone convinced that he was going to the University of Texas to play on a partial scholarship for three years. However, a $5M signing bonus plus a fund set aside to pay for four years at a University down the road goes a long way. Bell is blessed with tremendous physical gifts, including a lot of natural raw power and the ability to make hard contact. He is an older high school player and will actually turn 20 during his first year of pro ball but is also relatively advanced for most players coming directly from high school to professional ball.
89. Josh Vitters – 3B (Chicago Cubs)
Taken #3 overall in the 2007 draft, Josh Vitters continues to confound everybody in baseball. He has one of the best right-handed strokes in any level of professional baseball, but his approach is one of the worse. Without changes, Vitters will never become the elite player that the Cubs thought they drafted. Make-up is an overused phrase, but in my mind, a player who is unwilling to take instruction and continue to believe he has all the answers is the definition of bad make-up. Most thought last year was the make it or break it year, I’m giving it one more year.
90. Robbie Erlin – LHP (San Diego Padres)
If you look only at stats, Robbie Erlin looks like the best pitcher in the minors. In 2011, across High-A and Double-A, he struck out 154 batters in 147.1 innings while only walking 16. You know you have good control when you can name the guys you walked! The fastball is only average at 88-91MPH but since he throws strikes, he gets ahead of batters and puts them away with two plus secondary pitches -a nasty curve and even better change-up. The move to San Deigo is what has gotten me excited as I believe that profile will play well in the Petco Park and the poor offensive environment of the NL West.
91. Addison Reed – RHP (Chicago White Sox)
It’s a little frightening when the best prospect in an MLB organization is a relief pitcher, but that is the sad case with the Chicago White Sox and years of playing by the slot recommendation of Major League Baseball. That said, Addison Reed is a very good pitcher. With the ability to throw in the upper 90’s with a nasty slider and also an above average change-up, Reed could eventually profile as a starter but most scouts believe he will be most effective as an “all-out” late inning reliever. Don’t be shocked if Addison Reed becomes the White Sox closer as early as 2012, he’s that good.
92. Matt Davidson – 3B (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Drafted in the supplemental round of the 2009 draft, Matt Davidson brings a combination of a quick bat with a nice approach to the plate that should enable him to become a solid regular third baseman in the big leagues. In 2011 in High-A, Davidson hit 20 home runs but did strikeout an alarming 147 times in 535. Given his quick power stroke, this is hopefully more of being overly aggressive as opposed to have a flaw in his swing. Expect Davidson to start 2012 in Double-A.
93. Tyrell Jenkins – RHP (St. Louis Cardinals)
St. Louis is stacked with elite pitching prospects and while Tyrell Jenkins might be one of the lesser known pitching prospects, his stuff and athleticism are as good as anyone in the system. Jenkins was taken in the Supplemental Round of the 2010 draft with a $1.3M signing bonus to lure him away from Baylor as a wide receiver. Jenkins sits 93-96MPH with a tight 12-6 curve and an emerging change-up. He’ll move to full season ball next year at Low-A, where more fans will get a chance to see what all the excitement is about.
94. Joe Wieland – RHP (San Diego Padres)
Wieland was the other finesse pitcher in the Mike Adams trade at the 2011 trading deadline. His fastball ranges in the 88-92MPH range with a big breaking curve. His average change-up completes the arsenal. The results in 2011 across High-A and Double A were extremely impressive with 150 strikeouts in 155.2 inning with only 21 walks. As with Robbie Erlin, high control and command pitchers with average to above average stuff can play very well in Petco and the NL West.
95. Alex Meyer – RHP (Washington Nationals)
Alex Meyer is a high risk/high reward prospect. Taken as the 23rd pick in the 2011 draft, Meyer has great stuff with a plus 94-96MPH explosive fastball to go along with a plus-plus slider with late life and tilt. The problem is the control and at 6-9, he’s got a tough job ahead of him. In fact, many scouts don’t believe his control will ever get above average and that could eventually force him to the bullpen. His stuff is elite but whether he can harness and control the stuff is where the risk exists.
96. Starling Marte – OF (Pittsburgh Pirates)
I’m not sold on Starling Marte. On the positive side, he’s got plus-plus speed that translates into speed on the base path as well as excellent range in the outfield. In fact, he’s a joy to watch in the outfield, seemingly able to catch anything hit near him. The problem is an overly aggressive approach at the plate. Marte swings at everything, walking 22 times in 536 at bats in Double-A. Fortunately he does make contact and with his speed, has a chance to reach base frequently. Throw in some above average power and Marte has a chance to be a star if he can just temper his overly aggressive approach at the plate.
97. Justin Nicolino – LHP (Toronto Blue Jays)
Justin Nicolino was the best pitcher in the Northwest League in 2011 with a 64K/11B over 52 innings. Nicolino was drafted in the second round of the 2010 draft and at 19 years old, has a nice three pitch arsenal that includes a 90-92MPH fastball with a lot of sink (1.44 GO/AO rate). He’ll pick up where he left off in Low-A to start the 2012 season. With his maturity and arsenal, a mid season promotion to High-A seems reasonable.
98. Chad Bettis – RHP (Colorado Rockies)
Bettis was taken in the second round of the 2010 draft out of Texas Tech University. He has plus velocity, sitting 93-94 and touching higher. His secondary pitches are ok but still need work with an above average curve and a below average change-up. He pitched the entire 2011 season in the hitter friendly California league and dominated, striking out 184 in 169.2 and walking only 45. They key will be the development of his change-up. If it progresses, he could be a solid #3 with #2 upside. If not, he has a chance to be a late inning reliever.
99. Jed Bradley – LHP (Milwaukee Brewers)
Taken with the #15 pick in the 2011 amateur draft, Bradley is a power lefty with a major league frame at 6-4 and 225 lbs. His fastball sits at 88-94MPH with sink; which is a broad range and therefore shows some inconsistencies. He also has a plus slider and his change-up is decent for a college pitcher, but will need to improve. Scouts love his makeup and believe he will quickly advance through the system.
100. Javier Baez – SS (Chicago Cubs)
One of the better high school positional prospects in the 2011 draft, Javier Baez has a very quick bat with plus raw power. While he was drafted as a shortstop, most scouts believe he will outgrow the position and will have to move to 3B. He got very high marks in the Arizona Instructional League, which is good as the big black mark against Baez was a questionable make-up.
101. Luis Heredia – RHP (Pittsburgh Pirates)
Luis Heredia fits the profile of a #101 ranking in a Top 100 list – a kid who has sky high potential but with tremendous risk. Heredia who hails from Mexico, signed one of the largest international bonuses at $2.6M in 2010 for Pittsburgh. He’s a big kid at 6-6 and 205lbs and has an electric fastball that can flash in the upper 90’s. He’s already proven an ability to spin a curve and his change-up has flashed plus potential. Ignore the stats in the Gulf league because at 16-years old, what can you really expect? Next year, Heredia could be a legitimate Top 50 prospect or be put in the bucket of woulda/coulda.
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