Should we be worried about Jake Peavy

There's a lot of "I told you so experts" smiling from ear to ear as they predicted a down year for the 28 year old right hander Jake Peavy. That said, nobody could have envisioned the absolutely dreadful start that Peavy has had to the start the 2010 season – a 7.66 ERA and 1.84 WHIP after four starts. Could it be this bad? I mean, we're talking a Cy Young winner and one of the most dominating pitchers this decade. Let's take a look…

To start, Peavy's underlying stats are supporting the bad start. He's averaging a 6.0 K/9 rate and an almost unbelievable 6.0 BB/9 rate. His Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) is .320, which is near league average. His home run rate is also not out of line at 1.2 per nine. The only underlying stat that shows a bit of bad luck is his 58% strand rate. If you add it all up, Peavy's expected ERA (xERA) is 6.05, which is better than his ERA, but not by a lot.

Secondly, if we dig deeper into the stats, we see some disturbing trends in Peavy's velocity and movement of his pitches. In 2007, Peavy's fastball was averaging 93.9 MPH with a movement of 8.0 inches. In 2010, his velocity averaged 90.6 with movement of 6.5 inches. A drop of this magnitude is clearly concerning and could either mean mechanical problems, an injury, or the innings that Peavy's magical right arm has accumulated have caught up to him. While I'm not a pitching coach or a doctor, his eroding velocity and movement is not sudden and has been occurring little by little each year. That points more to an older arm than an injury or a temporary mechanical pitching problem.

Finally, the external factors of competition and ball park factors need to explored. First, three of Peavy's first four games were against, Cleveland (twice) and Toronto. While his fourth game was against a very good Tampa Bay offense, overall, you'd have to say that Peavy has faced fairly easy competitors. In looking at weather and ball park factors, two of his first four starts were in Chicago where the average temperature was 44.5 degrees. The third game was in Cleveland where the game time temperature was 44 while the fourth game was indoors in Toronto. The bottom line is that Peavy has pitched in pitcher-friendly weather and has still pitched poorly. It's scary to think what will happen when the wind switches in the summer in the band box of U.S. Cellular Field.

In looking for positives in the first four starts for Jake Peavy, I've not found any. His underlying stats are bad, his velocity is down, and he's pitched in pitcher-friendly weather. Am I worried, absolutely! Will things get better? Time will tell, but Peavy is getting to a point in his career that he's going to need to change how pitches. He can't blow batters away with that mid 90's fastball anymore. As his velocity has diminished, the separation between his off speed pitches and his fastball is getting smaller and that also spells trouble.

At this point, fantasy owners must bench Jake Peavy and hope that things can change. Unfortunately, Jake Peavy has got to change and that's going to be a lot harder than waiting for his luck to improve or the doormats of the league to come to town. Can he change? Time will tell.

Looking for Value in the Draft

The key to looking for value in a Fantasy Baseball draft is to find players that have a low ADP but have peripheral statistics that would suggest the player will out-perform his draft position and therefore bring value.

During drafting season, I'll look at undervalued players relative their draft position and after the season starts, I'll look at players who are either over performing their peripheral statistics or under- performing.

Justin Masterson (361)

Once a prized prospect with the Boston Red Sox, Justin Masterson finds himself with a new zip code and an opportunity to break into the starting rotation for the Indians. However, with an ADP of 361, he's barely being drafted in a 12-team league.

Masterson has the combination of what you look for in a pitcher - an extreme ground ball rate but also a high strikeout rate. Over the past two years, his ground ball rate has been 54% while his strikeout rate per nine (K/9) last year was 8.3. The problem has been his walk rate; walking 4.2 batters per nine innings last year. However, at age 25, Masterson is still very young and control many times is the last thing to develop. Finally, Masterson's Batting Average on Ball in Play (BABIP) was 32% last year, meaning he was somewhat unlucky.

As a late round flyer, Masterson has the perfect profile for a player who will return a nice profit - great underlying stats and opportunity.

Kelly Johnson (275)

Just two year ago, Kelly Johnson was establishing himself as the starting second baseman for the Atlanta Braves. However, a difficult hitting year last season in combination with a breakout season for Martin Prado, and Johnson finds himself in Phoenix looking to get his career back on track.

What happened? The biggest offender was Johnson's BABIP, which was 25% last year in comparison to an average of 33% the previous three years. This helped depress his average from a more Johnson like .275 to .280 to a dreadful .230 last year. What's interesting is his contact rate improved to 83%.

Johnson is never going to be a power hitter, but with a flyball of 43% and a hr/f rate that should improve as he moves to Arizona, 15-18 home runs is not out of the question. Turner Field is not kind to left handers as it suppresses home runs by 6% while Chase Field proves a 15% advantage.

Corey Hart (180)

In 2007, Corey Hart had his breakout batting .295 with 24 home runs and 23 stolen bases. The Brewers as well as Fantasy Baseball owners believed that Hart would grow into the next 25/25 or even 30/30 player. That has not happened as Hart has been sliding ever since, landing with a thud last year with 12 homers, 11 stolen bases, and batting .260.

Part of his problem last year were injuries (bruised foot and an emergency appendectomy) that limited Hart to only 419 AB's. However, even with the injuries, Hart managed a decent 78% contact rate with a walk rate of 9%. The power loss was due to a 9% home run to fly ball ratio (hr/f), but an even more anemic 6% hr/f during the second half. This is down from 13% during his breakout year. Clearly, the injuries were taking a toll.

While Corey Hart's hitting mechanics might not dictate a 30/30 player, he still owns the skills for a 20/20 player with a .275 average. At an ADP of 180, there is clear value in picking up Hart in the 14^th or 15^th round.

Adam LaRoche (179)

Adam LaRoche never receives any love at the draft table. Everyone knows about his slow starts, but in the end, isn't all about the final numbers – particularly in a roto-league.

Very few players provide the consistent production that LaRoche delivers. Over the past four years, his contact rate has averaged 74%-77% and his walk rate has averaged 10% every year. Over the past two years, he's hit 25 home runs and drove in 87 and 85 runs. All that said, he does move to Arizona where home runs for left handers increased by 15% as opposed to Atlanta where home runs for left handers is reduced by 6%

Ignoring the park factors, there doesn't appear to be any statistical upside, so you'll to settle on 25 home runs, 85 RBI, 75 Runs, and a .275 average. I don't know about you, but I'll take that production, with low-risk, in a heartbeat in the 14^th or 15^th round as my corner infielder or even my first baseman. In fact, in a 15-team mixed draft, you might even consider focusing on other positions in the first ten rounds and then pickup LaRoche.

Aaron Harang (246)

The call players like Aaron Harang innings eaters because they appear to have rubber arms that can pitch 200+ innings year over year – until they burn out.

In Harang's best year of 2007, he went 16-6 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. That year, his K/9 was 8.5 and his BB/9 was 2.0. In 2009, Harang's underlying strikeout and walk rates were similar as he posted a K/9 of 7.9 and a BB/9 of 2.4, however, his record did not fare nearly as well. Look no further than a BABIP of 34% and a hr/f rate 12% and you have your answer.

The bottom line is that Aaron Harang still has the skills of an elite pitcher, but he's run into a string of bad luck over the past two years. You also can't completely discount the wear and tear on his arm and the work load that Dusty Baker might ask, but the skills are there and as an end game selection, he's a player that will be on a lot of my teams.