Winning a Fantasy League with Dwight Howard

The 2009-2010 season marks my ninth year playing Fantasy Basketball.

When I started, I was like everyone who starts a new Fantasy Sport – I came to the draft completely unprepared. I picked players I'd seen on TV or remembered from their college days. My #1 pick that year…Michael Jordan. Great, right? Well…that was his first year playing for the Wizards and to be kind, it was not pretty. An old and out-of-shape Jordan scored 21.5 PPG, but shot 41.2% from the field and a whopping 22.6 shots per game. Ouch!

It was during that very long season, that I learned the importance of the percentage categories in a 4x4 rotisserie league and developed a draft strategy axiom of always protecting my percentages. I realized that you can always find points and rebounds; even steals, blocks, and assists on the waiver wire. However, the problem with waiver wire players is that they rarely play enough, or shoot enough to recover from a shot-happy poor shooter.

Over the past couple of years, I've written and spoken about how Dwight Howard will destroy your free throw percentage and ultimately doom your team. To emphasize the point, last year, I played in seven rotisserie leagues and the highest a Dwight Howard team finished was seventh. The highest point value for the free-throw category was…drum roll…three!

Being a math junkie and always looking for a challenge, I decided to draft a team with Dwight Howard as my anchor players and see if I could at least finish in the money or even win a league. I determine the best chance of realizing my goal was to attempt this strategy in an auction draft format, where I could control the type of players I had on my team. I targeted this experimental draft last Tuesday in one of our Fantasy Basketball Basics leagues.

The Strategy

I came up with two approaches to solve the Dwight Howard led Fantasy Team conundrum:

1. Concentrate on high FT% players such as Paul Pierce, Mo Williams, and Kevin Martin to cover the hole that Howard creates; or
   
2. Embrace the poor FT% and essentially punt the category and try to blow-out at least six of the remaining eight categories.
   

I spent hours modeling the projections of players to try and cover the poor free-throw percentage of Howard, but in the end, it proved to be a riddle I could not solve. The basic problem is Howard doesn't provide enough rebounds and blocks alone to win those categories and the players that do help in those categories, also have well below league average FT% (Emeka Okafor, Tim Duncan, Andris Biedrins, etc…). The players that help in free-throw percentages don't get enough rebounds and especially blocks to help. In the end, the contrasting players cancel each other out and you wind up with a middle-of-the-pack team.

Winning the league by punting the category proved equally difficult. In order to win a 4x4 rotisserie league, you need at least 72-75 points. If you punt a category, the maximum points you can get is 85 (96 maximum minus 11 points you give up). That means you must average 10.5 points over the remaining categories to win the league. You might be able to do that in a free public league, but in a highly competitive league like our Fantasy Basketball Basics league, it's very difficult. Also, since I was playing in an auction league, Howard would cost me 25% of my budget, leaving $150 to spread across 13 other players. To think I could get another stud player like Lebron James or Dirk Nowitzki and still fill out my roster with enough quality to average 10.5 point per category was not possible.

So what did I do? I compromised and followed a little of both strategies in constructing a team that would finish in the bottom third of FT%, win rebounds, blocks, FG%, and three-points, and finish strong in points, assists, and steals. The goal was to accumulate 72 points coming out of the draft and have bench strength across the board.

The Team

For blocks and rebounding, I selected Andrew Bogut for $5, and Shawn Marion for $20, a little pricey, but Marion should have a bounce back year and contribute strong across all the categories. In addition, I also drafted Wilson Chandler, Stephen Jackson and Carmelo Anthony that will provide decent rebounding, but not many blocks. However, Howard's projected 235.0 blocks provides 40% of the total needed to win the block category and therefore, I feel comfortable exiting the draft with only Howard and Bogut as my primary shot blockers.

For three-point shooting, I decided to focus on several players who could provide 100.0-150.0 three-pointers instead of picking three-point specialists such as Jason Richardson or Rashard Lewis. These somewhat one-dimensional players will not provide enough contribution in other categories to win the league. Instead, I picked Stephen Jackson, Steve Nash, T.J. Ford, Manu Ginobili, Kelenna Azubuike, and Wilson Chandler who provide both threes and something else such as assist, steals, or points. Beside Nash, everyone else cost me less than $15.

To win the assist category, I needed a stud point guard and therefore spent $40 for Steve Nash. I also got Stephen Jackson and T.J Ford who can provide a combined 12.0 APG. Is it enough to win the category? Probably not, but this is where Howard's price tag of $55 prohibited me from drafting another top-tier point-guard.

Every player on my squad should provide over 0.7 steals per game, but nobody will contribute elite contribution. I wanted Chauncey Billups or Jason Kidd, but finances would not permit. I hope to finish in the top third in the steal category.

I was criticized during the draft for spending $39 on Carmelo Anthony. A fair criticism in most drafts, however, most of the players I selected provided contribution in multiple categories but are not elite scorers. This is very typical in the NBA. Also, scorers in an auction draft demand a premium as most owners believe you have to win that category to win the league. This is a fallacy as points are the most plentiful asset on the waiver wire. You can easily win a rotisserie league by finishing in the middle of the pack in points, unless of course you draft Howard and decimate your FT%. I needed a scorer and targeted Anthony and his 25.0+ PPG. I would have liked Antwan Jamison as well, but injuries scared me off and that led me to Stephen Jackson.

As I prepped for the draft, I realized that the key to winning with Dwight Howard was to draft an all-around stud that was less than $15. The player best fitting that description was Stephen Jackson, which I generally avoid for the same reason I avoid Howard, he'll destroy your FG%. As it turns out, he's actually a nice complement to Howard and in the end, I have a team anchored by two players I truly despise…pretty cool!

What are my chances?

While I overspent for Howard and probably paid too much for Nash and Anthony, I came close to achieving the goal based on a number of pre-season projections. In running the numbers, my team finished in the top three of a number of prognosticators pre-seasons projections, including mine. In fact, one of the projections had me finishing with four points in the FT% category.

Do the projections mean I'll win the league or even finish in the money? No, but it does mean that barring injuries or Stephen Jackson blowing a gasket, my team should compete. Plus there is word out of Orlando that Dwight Howard will shoot 75% from the line this year; even coach Stan Van Gundy confirmed the projection. If that happens, it's game, set and match. However, I won't clear the space on my mantle just yet for the trophy; maybe by Christmas though…

Fantasy Basketball Basics Auction Draft Results

On Tuesday, October 20^th, I was involved in an Auction Draft along with eleven other hard-core Fantasy Basketball Players. The competition was stiff and we're all anxious to get the season started.

 

I've posted a terrific write-up from one of our owners, Dan O'Neill. Dan goes through in detail the strategy of each of the participants, who he felt were the best picks and worst picks. He kind-of liked my team, but basically indicated I would be an also-ran. Hmmm, did I tell you that I hate Dan.

 

Enjoy everyone and thanks Dan for a great piece of work.

 

 

Rich Wilson

 

His strategy was to get a few top-notch players and fill the rest of his roster with cheap players. This strategy worked well for Rich because he made the most out of his under $10 picks.

 

The Two Highest Priced Players

 

We all know Rich hates Superman (#6 on the 2009 player rater) but he took him anyway just to what would happen. $55 is a lot of money to spend on him but he will be a monster in blocks, rebounds, points, and FG percentage. He will be Rich's kryptonite in FT percentage. Steve Nash (#8 on the 2009 player rater) is a great source of FT percentage, three pointers, and of course assists. Nash was overpaid for a little bit but not much and should prove to be a nice pick.

 

Best picks

 

TJ Ford (#88 on the 2009 player rater) at $9

87% from the line and 5.3 assists per game is not bad for $9

 

Andres Nocioni (#122 on the 2009 player rater) $1

Francisco Garcia is hurt…That translates into more minutes for Nocioni

 

Andrew Bogut (#248 on the 2009 player rater) $5

For the 60 games he will play this year he will get a double-double, shoot 57% from the floor and get a block per game. But he will kill the FT%.

 

Worst Pick

 

Carmelo Anthony (#37 on the 2009 player rater) $39

Let's begin by saying Carmelo is a better real life player than fantasy player. Carmelo scores a lot of points but it is a steep price to pay for a player not even ranked in the top 25 last year. This was his worst pick because he could have had a much better player or combination of players for $39.

 

He has a contending team but might not be enough for the championship

 

Team Cincotta

 

Toni's strategy was to go for proven players with upside. He saw value in Gilbert at $21, Marcus Camby at $16, and David Lee at $22.

 

The Two Highest Priced Players

 

Toni loved him some Deron Williams (#19 on the 2009 player rater) for $64 but he was worth the big bucks. This guy is going to have a huge season and even though he had to pay for him he got a great player in return. Tim Duncan (#34 on the 2009 player rater) at $35 is a nice value pick. He will average his usual double-double and he will help in FG percentage and blocks. He will not help the good old' FT percentage.

 

Best Picks

David Lee (#22 on the 2009 player rater) $22

He is center eligible and is a double-double machine. He will shoot over 50% from the floor and will give you 75% from the line. The only thing this guy does not do is block shots.

 

Jermaine O'Neal (#133 on the 2009 player rater) $2

2 .0 blocks per game and good percentages with the potential of him returning to the player he used to be is a nice bargain at $2.

 

Worst Picks

All of his $1 picks

I know what you are saying they are only $1 bench players but this is not the case. There was nice value at the end of the draft and Toni missed out on it big time. For $1 Mr. Cincotta could have had T-Mac, Brewer, Warrick, Nocioni, Azubuke, Harden, Frye, Yi, Courtney Lee, and Hinrich are all great options at $1.

 

He has a lot of question marks on his team and will need everything to go right for him to finish top 5

 

Wicked Blend

 

Gary's strategy was to go after one superstar and fill his roster out with young solid players that have the potential to have a breakout season.

 

The Two Highest Priced Players

 

Kevin Durant (#15 on the 2009 player rater) is a great young talent and Grant paid the price for him at $69. Durant will have a great season and should be a great all around player for Grant. It is questionable however, to pay $69 for a player that was ranked 15 on the player rater last year. Durant is going to have to step up his level of play a lot to gain ground on players like LeBron, CP3, Wade, and Kobe, all of which were almost a full 3 to 7 points ahead of Durant on the player rater. Devin Harris (#28 on the 2009 player rater) at $28 is an excellent value pick. He is on a bad team that lost Vince Carter so he should see some more points his way and will be a focal point in the offense.

 

Best Picks

 

Andrew Bynum (#135 on the 2009 player rater) $15

This guy is tearing it up in the preseason and the past 2 years has gotten off to very hot starts. His big problem is he gets injured all the time! If he stays healthy this year forget about it.

 

JR Smith (#54 on the 2009 player rater) $9

He is a bargain at $9 and can single handedly win Grant three pointers in any given week. His shooting percentage is not going to help but he shoot well from the line and adds the occasional steal.

 

Worst Pick

 

None! Grant executed every pick he had great. He had a nice mixture of young and old players and did not take many risks but at the same time chose great upside picks. The only pick that can be critiqued is paying $69 for Kevin Durant but even that is splitting hairs.

 

Dare I say? Championship Contender…

 

Gary's Players

 

Gary did not spend more than $38 on any player in this draft and the strategy worked well for him. He cleaned up in the middle of the draft and got a couple of nice steals.

 

The Two Highest Priced Players

 

His most expensive player was KG at $38 (#50 on the 2009 player rater), which is the price most owners expected him to go for. KG is coming off an injury but is showing in the preseason he is healthy. KG will be solid in percentages will aver 15 ppg and 10 rebounds and will get some blocks and steals. Al Jefferson (#98 on the 2009 player rater) is also coming off a major injury from last year but has not shown this preseason that he is healthy and ready to play. He might start off the season slow but should pick it up about a month into the season and average around 20 ppg with 10 rebounds. Jefferson will also contribute in percentages and blocks.

 

Best Picks

 

Paul Millsap (#80 on the 2009 player rater) $3

Millsap had a great season last year filling in for Boozer and even though Boozer is back Millsap is still going to see a lot of minutes on the court.

 

Vince Carter (#14 on the 2009 player rater) $16

VC was a top 15 player on the player rater last year. His numbers will decline this year because he is not in NJ but he will still be a top 30 player. He could take Hedo's role and run with it and $16 is not a bad price to pay for this.

 

Worst Pick

 

Kevin Love (#104 on the 2009 player rater) $3

This pick would make sense if it was a keeper league but it is not. Kevin Love is a great player but he is having wrist surgery and will miss some time. You cannot wait on an injured player if you want to win the championship unless it is someone like LeBron or CP3.

 

He has solid players but no stud in his lineup. He will need someone to have a breakout season for him to make some noise.

 

Buffalo Braves

 

This was a very interesting strategy by Jason. He drafted two of the top five most expensive players in the draft with LeBron and Kobe spending a whopping $145 on these two players. He had $55 for his remaining 12 roster spots. Which translates into about $5 per spot for the rest of his draft. Jason did a pretty good job of filling out the rest of his roster and it will be interesting to see how his season turns out.

 

The 2 Highest Priced Players

 

His most expensive player was LeBron at $79 (#3 on the 2009 player rater) who was actually the most expensive player in the draft. LeBron James is a freak of nature and will help in every category for Jason. Kobe Bryant (#4 on the 2009 player rater) cost a measly $66 and will also help Jason in every category much like LeBron will. These two players aren't a bad start to building a team.

 

Best Picks

 

Hakim Warrick (#152 on the 2009 player rater) $1

This might be the year Warrick finally gets a starting for the full season. We have seen what he did in his chance to start last season and he averaged around 15 ppg and 8 rebounds during this opportunity.

 

Marc Gasol (#67 on the 2009 player rater) $2

Pau's brother joined him as a nice fantasy option last year. Thabeet is not an immediate threat so Gasol should enjoy another good season for Memphis.

 

Worst Picks

 

Spending all his money on LeBron and Kobe. Unlike real basketball, two players will not win you a championship in fantasy basketball. This is a great example of why not to spend all your money on two players in a draft because the rest of your team is a bunch of question mark third and fourth tier players.

 

He has two really good players, but the rest of his lineup looks like the Clippers…

 

Ginger Ankle Snapz

 

Dan's strategy was to go for one high priced great player and then focus their money on some two-tier players with the potential to be a number one player. After they ran low on cap space they went after good young players that get playing time.

 

The Two Highest Priced Players

 

His most expensive player was Chris Bosh at $50 (#12 on the 2009 player rater). Bosh is a great player in a contract year and is valuable in this league because he is center eligible. Bosh will help with percentages, points and rebounds. Rajon Rondo (#39 on the 2009 player rater) was definitely overpriced but he will be a solid contributor in steals, assists, rebounds, and FG %. He will be a killer in FT% and does not get many 3 pointers.

 

Best Picks

 

Joe Johnson (#20 on the 2009 player rater) $30

Johnson was a top 20 player last season and is the focal point of his offense. He will score, hit threes, dish assists, and sink free throws.

 

Charlie Villanueva (#76 on the 2009 player rater) $6

This guy is injury prone but when he plays he puts up number. Detroit paid him a lot of money and he will get some serious minutes. With those minutes he could have a breakout season.

 

Worst Pick

 

Threw a category away (3-pointers) and will have to make it up through free agency and trades.

 

There team is solid but they do not show any regard for three pointers which could come back to haunt them.

 

This team is a contender

 

Jerome James

 

Dan's strategy was to spend between $15 and $30 for most of his players. He would not get any superstars but he built a deep solid team that was not weak in any category.

 

The Two Highest Priced Players

 

His most expensive player was Brook Lopez (#64 on the 2009 player rater) at $31. Brook Lopez had a great rookie season and looks like he is going to develop into a player similar to Tim Duncan with a better FT%. Lopez is going to be a huge part of the Nets offense this year and can become an elite center in fantasy basketball. Paul Pierce (#18 on the 2009 player rater) was a steal at $25 and should put up the stats we are use to seeing. Pierce will bring value to all categories and could be the steal of the draft at $25.

 

Best Picks

 

Paul Pierce (#18 on the 2009 player rater) $25

Pierce is a top 20 player and was dirt-cheap. He will contribute with over 20.0 ppg, around 1.0 or 2.0 threes per game, and good percentages from the line and field.

 

Michael Redd (#181 on the 2009 player rater) $9

Redd is coming off an injury but he scores 20 ppg when healthy and will drain a ton of threes. The Bucks do not have any other real scorers and Redd will be the main guy when he is on the court.

 

Worst Pick

 

Not spending more than $31 on any player. You have to spend money to get the best players and this team has good players but not any top players.

 

They have a lot of good players but they do not have any great players. It will be difficult for a good team to dominate in any categories and it will probably put them right in the middle of the pack.

 

This is a solid lineup but it's not a championship lineup

 

St. Louis Clark

 

Bill's strategy was similar to Rich's strategy and this was to get 3 star players and fill the rest of his roster out with cheap pretty good players. This strategy will work if Bill has a few of his cheap players outperform their cost.

 

The Two Highest Priced Players

 

His most expensive player was Danny Granger at $69 (#10 on the 2009 player rater) and is a top 5 fantasy player. Granger does it all and is a great addition to his team. Amare Stoudemire (#23 on the 2009 player rater) was $49 and he could also be a top 5 player if he could just stay on the floor. Last year he was poked in the eye and missed a lot of time which is good because it was not his surgically repaired knee.

 

Best Picks

 

Thaddeus Young $5 (#68 on the 2009 player rater)

This player is on the rise after he averaged 15.0 ppg 5.0 boards and had pretty good percentages from the floor. If Thaddeus takes a step forward this season STL will have a great player on his hands.

 

Jason Kidd $35 (#9 on the 2009 player rater)

He is no longer a kid but he does find himself in the top 10 players overall every year. He is on a great team and may not be able to shoot the ball anymore but he can still pass and rebound better than almost any PG.

 

Worst Picks

 

Bill didn't make any bad picks and got the best value he could out of this draft.

 

Contender…

 

Absolute Citron

 

Andrew had a strategy of spending a lot of money on one star and allocated the rest of his budget to a lot of players around $5 to $15 to build a solid all around lineup.

 

The Two Highest Priced Players

 

His most expensive player was Dwayne Wade (#1 on the 2009 player rater) who was the top fantasy player last year. Wade's talent is not the question; the question for Wade is his ability to stay on the court. If he stays on the court he will be a top 10 player but there is a good chance he misses around 15 games at least on any given year. The great white hope Troy Murphy (#29 on the 2009 player rater) went for $25. Murphy had career year last year and it will be tough for him to repeat. He might surprise everyone and repeat, if this happens he will be a steal at $25.

 

Best Picks

 

Zach Randolph (#141 on the 2009 player rater)

Randolph is a better fantasy player than real life player. He is a lock for 20.0 ppg and 10.0 rebounds when he gets his minutes. Hopefully he plays some defense to stay on the floor to put up his solid fantasy numbers.

 

Jason Richardson (#106 on the 2009 player rater) $12

Richardson has been bouncing around the past couple of season but may have found a home at Pheonix. J-Rich scores around 16-20 ppg and averages close to 2.0 threes per game. With the run and gun Suns those numbers could increase and his stock could rise.

 

Worst Picks

 

Too much Risk

 

Talk about injury risk. Dwayne Wade, Baron Davis, Manu Ginobili, Jason Richardson, and Troy Murphy will miss at least 10 games every year and this does not include the 10 game suspension Rashard Lewis is serving. There are way too many question marks on this team.

 

If everything falls in place watch out! But it probably won't

 

Team Lundeen

 

Gabriel had the strategy of spending his money on three second tier fantasy stars. The rest of his cap space went to proven players that were on the rise or due for a bounce back season.

 

The 2 Highest Priced Players

 

His most expensive player was Pau Gasol (#17 on the 2009 player rater) at $37. Gasol is a great player and is in a dynamic lineup with the Lakers. Gasol should average around 18.0 ppg and 9.0 rebounds with nice percentages at the center position. Chauncey Billups (#7 on the 2009 player rater) went for $35 and is a great buy. He is in an up-tempo offense and will contribute 16.0 PPG, 6.0 assists, 2.0 threes, and 90% from the line.

 

Best Picks

 

Ron Artest (#59 on the 2009 player rater) $5

He is a little crazy but he can play some ball. Artest is going to contribute a little bit in every category and might be the steal of the draft.

 

Kevin Martin (#60 on the 2009 player rater) $16

Martin can score over 20.0 ppg, hit 2.0 threes per game, and shoot around 90% from the line. If he can stay healthy he will have a fantastic season.

 

Worst Picks

 

None! Solid draft with great picks.

 

This team is not a pretender they are a contender easy

 

 

Team Gold

 

Andrew showed everyone an example of how not to do an auction draft. Andrew saved almost all of his money until the very end of the draft after all the good players were taken. He had an excess of $40 with 2 picks left and no one that good on the board.

 

The 2.0 Highest Priced Players

 

His most expensive player was Andre Iguodala (#16 on the 2009 player rater) at $36. Iggy is a very athletic player and will contribute to all categories. Gerlad Wallace (#51 on the 2009 player rater) cost him a whopping $22 and is very similar to Iguodala. Wallace is very athletic and fills the stat sheet when he is not injured.

 

Best Pick

 

Trevor Ariza (#94 on the 2009 player rater) $4

Ariza got a fat contract and is going to get a lot of playing time this year. Ariza got under 25 minutes per game last year and he should see over 30 minutes per game this year. This rise in minutes means a rise in production.

 

Worst Picks

 

Rodney Stuckey (#110 on the 2009 player rater) $20

This $20 price tag on Stuckey shows the large amount of money Andrew had toward the end of the draft.

 

I think you got my point

 

Spliffin With Griffin

 

Jeff Wang does not deserve a breakdown because he did not attend the draft. He got auto drafted so good job computer you drafted a pretty good team. We do not want to hear any excuses Wang.