I'll be doing a series of six blog posts over the next week to highlight some of the best prospects participating in the Airzona Fall League (AFL) this year. For those of you not familiar with the AFL, it's a league that was established to allow major league baseball teams a venue to send their top prospects. Since all the stadiums in the Phoenix area are close together, it's a great opportunity to see dozens of top prospects over the course of the two months season.
Given the start date of early October, the AFL has turned primarily into a hitters league as teams are reluctant to send young pitchers who have already thrown 120+ innings. There are exceptions as many of the top college pitchers drafted in the June amateur draft are competing. For instance: Gerritt Cole, Danny Hultzen, and Matt Purke made their professional debut during this year's AFL.
We start the series off with the dream team this year, the Scottsdale Scorpions. The Scorpions are comprised of players from the Angels, Giants, Nationals, Phillies, and Red Sox. So for two months, we get to see Bryce Harper and Mike Trout playing in the same outfield.
Here's a breakdown of the top eight players on the team.
Washington LHP: Matt Purke
Matt Purke was hoping to be one of the top picks in the 2011 amateur draft but bursitis in his pitching shoulder zapped his velocity and by the spring, his fastball was sitting in the upper 80’s. The Nationals believe they got a bargain by selecting Purke in the 3rd round, but advisor Scott Boras, still managed to get him a major league deal with a $2.8M signing bonus. If healthy, Purke has elite stuff with a fastball that sits 92-94, an above average two-plane slider and a work-in-progress change-up. All that said, the start to the AFL has not been good for Purke. In 2.1 innings, he’s given up 6 runs including a home run. More importantly, his fastball has been flat and sitting at 90-92MPH.
Washington Catcher: Derek Norris
Derek Norris strikes out a ton and walks a ton but he’s a catcher with power, so that has a tendency to make him relevant. In Double-A, Norris had a 65% contact rate and 23% walk rate, but you add it all up and you get a .210 batting average. He has improved his defense considerably this year, so his offene will not have to carry him as much.
Boston 3B: Will Middlebrooks
Will Middlebrooks is a big strong athletic player at 6-4 and 200lbs with above average bat speed and power to all fields. His strikeouts were high in Double-A with 95 K’s in 371 at-bats, which if not corrected will cause concerns as he moves into Triple-A with a potential call-up to the Red Sox in September of 2012. In 44 at-bats in the AFL, Middlebrooks is batting .227 with 3 home runs and 15 strikeouts.
San Francisco SS: Joe Panik
San Francisco went conservative in the 2011 draft and selected shortstop Joe Panik with the 29th overall pick. Panik signed early and headed off to the short-season Northwest league, raked, and won the MVP of the league batting .341 with 6 home runs and 13 stolen bases in 270 at-bats. Most impressive is he had more walks than strikeouts (25K/28BB). Scouts are anxious to see what he can do in the AFL against more advance pitching. So far in 41 at-bats, he’s batting .244 but with only three strikeouts and five walks. Interesting to say the least.
Los Angeles SS: Jean Segura
Hamstring problems hindered the explosive Jean Segura this year but there is a lot of talent in the 21-year old Dominican shortstop. He projects as a plus hit tool with great plate discipline, a plus runner, and a plus defender at either SS or 2B. His power is emerging, with a 15-20 home run production not out of the question. Fully healed, Segura is batting .325 in 40 at-bats in the early going in the AFL.
San Francisco OF: Gary Brown
If you’re looking for a future MLB stolen base champion, it could very well be Gary Brown. Brown has blazing 80-grade speed and amassed 53 steals on 72 attempts in High-A this year. His batting approach has turned out to better than scouts predicted showing decent plate discipline (8.0 BB rate). Brown will likely start the 2012 season in Double-A but there are rumors that he will skip directly to Triple-A.
Washington OF: Bryce Harper
Listed by many as the #1 or #1a prospect in all of baseball, Harper has true 80 grade raw power that could translate into 40+ home runs in the majors. He’ll have decent speed initially (10-15 stolen bases per year) but as the body fills out, the speed will diminish. Make-up is still a question, but A-Rod is not the most pleasant guy and has 600 home runs.
Los Angeles OF: Mike Trout
Listed by many as the #1 or #1a prospect in all of baseball, Trout posses 80 grade speed with a plus bat, plus defensive skills, and growing power. A scary comp is Carl Crawford with more power or Grady Sizemore (circa 2008) with a .300 batting average. His make-up is off the charts as is illustrated by his participation in the AFL. After a long season that included significant playing time in the majors in September, Trout is here.
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