Searching for breakout players

In Fantasy Sports, owners are always looking for young players who are about to emerge and become the next major contributor to their team. Given the more individualized nature of baseball, statisticians have become extremely adept at translating a baseball player's core statistics into overall success. For instance, if you analyze a pitcher's strikeout to walk ratio and see it trending to 3.0, you know that an ace is emerging, regardless of what their win/lose or ERA indicates. In Basketball, it's more complicated as the player has to function in a true team setting. For instance, you can't get an assist if somebody doesn't score; no matter how good the pass. You want to score, there's five guys trying to stop you and many of them…very TALL!

So, how do you find those players in Basketball that are good, but are in the wrong system, behind a stud player, or the coach simply won't play? Since most of us are not scouts, we instead turn to stats to help guide us. One stat that I've used effectively over the past few seasons to evaluate players is the Player Efficiency Rating (PER)

Here's the equation:

PER = ((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) - ((Field goals attempts - Field goals made) + (Free throws attempts - Free throws made) + Turnovers))

Basically, you add all the positives of your player: points, rebounds, assist, steals, blocks and subtract the negatives: missed shots, missed free throws and turnovers. This numeric result can then be used to rank how efficiently the player is while on the court. In fact, many Basketball GM's are using this equation as a standard to evaluate players.

 

The Fantasy Spin

Looking at players with the highest efficiency rating is interesting, but candidly, it's not all that useful for fantasy owners. The top PER players are Lebron James, Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, and Dwayne Wade. See what I mean? Everybody knows that! However, if we look at the Player Efficiency Rating on a per minute basis (PERm), interesting things start to emerge. Jameer Nelson moves from the 11^th most efficient PG to #2, behind CP3, Rajon Rondo moves from 10 to 4.

Extending the logic, we can start to look for those truly emerging talents by combining the PERm with the following:

1. Fantasy Ranking – How a player is ranked compared to other players on a per game basis. There are many formulas and subsequent list available, but I have developed my own that takes into account a lot of additional shooting stats such as number of FTA vs. league average. In this article, I'll be using those stats.
   
2. Player Opportunity – If your #2 in the depth chart behind Lebron James, it doesn't matter how good your PER, you're not going to get the minutes. That's not to say you ignore those players, but for this exercise, I've parked those players. Instead, I prefer to look at teams that might be out of the race and looking to RUN their younger players or trade veterans.
   
3. Age – I've done research that has shown over the past 30 years in the NBA, a player starts to become effective at age 22 and peaks at age 27, before a rapid decline in productivity. Stars have a longer career than fringe players, but the research is clear that an NBA player's career is short. To that end, I look at players from age 20-24 who could emerge.
   

Emerging Players

Hopefully I've peaked your interest or maybe you're skimming and just want to know the names of the players who might be great 2^nd half pickups or players to stash away on dynasty leagues. Whatever the reason, here's the list:

Kevin Love (Forward) – Minnesota - age 20 [Fantasy Rating (F Rating): 95 PERm: 25]

If you've been following this year's crop of rookies, Kevin Love started off slow but over the past month has been increasing in minutes and effectiveness. His PERm/FRating ratio for forwards is the largest of any player in the NBA. That's impressive. Plus, Love has the added advantage of playing on a team that, while having a nice run under Kevin McHale, is probably not going to challenge for a playoff spot, therefore, the minutes will be there. Love has a chance to be a superior rebounder while scoring between 15-18 points with plus FG and FT%.

Upside: 17 ppg and 12 rebounds – look a lot like David Lee

Brandan Wright (Forward) – Golden State – age 21 [F Rating: 81 PERm: 26]

I'll admit that Brandan Wright has been below my radar – no more! While currently out with a shoulder injury, Wright had the second highest PERm/FRating of forwards. He also has the advantage of playing in the Fantasy Basketball paradise of Golden State where RUNNING and GUNNING has become a verb. It's not time to pull the trigger on Wright, but have you finger on the trigger and watch his production closely; particularly his minutes. Remember, Golden State is likely out of the race and additional minutes for Wright once he returns for his injury should be there. Plus, Corey Maggette always gets hurt!

Ramon Sessions (Guard) – Milwaukee age 22 [F Rating: 79 PERm:29]

What's not to like? He can shoot, he's lightening quick, and posses great ball skills. Why Scott Skiles doesn't see this is beyond me. However, he's got his chance now with Michael Redd out and I'm confident that he will shine. He's a must pickup for dynasty leagues and a true sleeper for next year's draft. Just remember, you heard it here first.

Upside: 18 PPG and 10 assist per game

Roy Hibbert (Center) – Indiana age 22 [F Rating: 50 PERm:23]

Roy Who? Candidly, centers did not fare very well in this analysis, but Roy Hibbert of Indiana rose to the top. He's a first rounder from Georgetown and was part of the trade with Toronto for Jermaine O'Neil. He's young and raw but at 7' 2", is clearly a big body that Indiana could use in the middle. Keep a watch out for Hibbert as there might be something there.

Upside: 13 points, 8 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks

Lou Williams (Guard) Philadelphia age 22 [F Rating: 94 PERm:39]

Some pre-season hype for Williams quickly faded as he got out of the blocks slow. However, his PERm is strong and he's got some great skills as a shooting point guard. With opportunity, he could grow into Andre Miller with a better outside shot. If you hear discussions about an Andre Miller move, jump on it. If Andre Miller gets injured, jump on it!

Upside: 18 ppg, 7 assist, and 1.5+ 3 pointers

J.R. Smith (Guard) Denver age 23 [F Rating: 71 PERm:40]

Promise, promise, promise! Yeah I know what you're thinking, but the skills are there. What J.R. Smith lacks is consistency and that will come once his confidence is there. He's only 23 and a guy worth watching very closely, particularly as Denver gets closer to the end and needs a 3 pointer to put games away. Having Chauncey Billups tossing him the ball is also a huge plus. For those of you that have given up and are no longer believers, trust the data, they are real!

Jason Thompson (Forward) Sacramento – age 22 [F Rating: 86 PERm:50]

If you don't have Jason Thompson on your team, stop reading this and go make the move…NOW! The stars are aligning in Sacremento and Thompson is going to be a big beneficiary. He's got a nice game going with a strong inside presence. I'm a little disappointed in his lack of shot blocking ability, but the points, rebounds, and shooting percentages are there. Plus, he's starting and getting big minutes. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he's golden. Grab em now!

 

While mining data searching for emerging players is difficult in Fantasy Basketball, it's still possible by combining detailed research and intangible factors that all lead to playing time. Try using the Player Efficiency Rating as a tool to guide you evaluation process.