I've been playing Fantasy Basketball for many years and I've never seen a season so riddled with injuries. Stoudemire, Jefferson, Brand, Bogut, Redd, McGrady, are just a few of the players who have disappeared from our teams. However, if that's happened to you, stop you whining and do something. With 75% of the season in the rear view mirror, it's time to analyze your league, pick a strategy for moving up in a category, and work it. I also find that many owners are distracted during this time of the year preparing for Baseball drafts. Take advantage of those people sleeping at the wheel and make some moves.
This blog will primarily focus on roto leagues, but if you're interested in strategies for head-to-head leagues, read my previous posting on taking advantage of the playoff schedule.
This late in the season, if you're trying to move up in all categories, you're not going to make it. In fact, you'll probably go crazy by spending countless unproductive hours looking at the waiver wire. You've got to focus! Here's some tips:
Tip #1: Analyzing categories
Analyze the categories and determine the distance between you and the next two to three teams in each category. I like to use 5% as a rule of thumb for determining whether I can catch a team. Let's use an example to illustrate the point:
- You have 3300 rebounds for a grand total of 3 points in the category.
- The team directly ahead of you has 3350 rebounds [1.5% more than you], the team two ahead of you 3375 [2.2%], three ahead 3420 [3.6%], and four ahead, 3540 [7.2%].
- In the above example, you should target a move of three points, or catch the team with 3420. Anything beyond that is probably not realistic. Why??? Here's the logic…the average number of games left are approximately 25. You can probably pick up a player on the waiver wire that can give you 7-9 rebounds a game, but he will probably replace a player that's getting 2-3; assuming you replace a PG/SG with a PF, that will give you an increase of 6-7 rebounds per game. Simple math: 6.5 times 25 games gives you 162 rebounds or roughly 5% - give or take.
The 5% rule is not an exact science as you can gain more quickly in the scarce categories [blocks, steals, and 3's] by selecting a specialist. How so? See Tip #3.
Tip #2: Lebron James does not exist on the Waiver Wire
Recognize that this late in the season, players don't exist on the waiver wire that can fill up more than three categories. Therefore, pick the categories to focus on and pick the appropriate player. Compartmentalize your players as one of following:
- PF's/C that give you rebounds, blocks, and good FG%. If after doing your analysis from Tip #1, you decide that chasing rebounds will be the strategy, look also at what you can do with blocks and FG% as it's likely that these other two categories will increase as well. DO NOT pick a big guy that hurts your FG%.
- PG's that give you assist, steals, and good FT%. Players on the waiver wire that give you both steals and assist together are hard to find this late in the season, but if you do, that's the player you want.
- SG/SF that give you 3's, points, and good FT%. If you decide to chase 3's, make sure your ready for a bumpy ride as a three point specialist is the most inconsistent player in the league.
Tip #3: Focus on category scarcity
If you're completely lost as to what to do, focus on the three scarce categories: blocks, steals, and 3 point shots.
- Blocks. The Block shot is way down this year [see previous blog post] and a smart player can move up quickly in a category by adding a shot blocking specialist like Chris Andersen or Ronny Turiaf. Look at the math: Chris Andersen is blocking 2.2 shots a game, and will ignore for the moment the last 2 weeks where he's blocked 3.6 per game, which is over a block more than Dwight Howard in that same timeframe. Multiple 2.2 times 25 and you get 55 blocks. Assuming that you replace a PG getting virtual no blocks, this could easily represent a 15% increase for the rest of the season.
- 3 Point Shots. There are many 3 point specialist in the league that are sitting on waiver wires. Roger Mason, Eddie House, Dequan Cook, and J.R. Smith come to mind as excellent sources. While the logic is similar, 3 point shooting is not as scarce as block so the benefit of adding a 3 point specialist is not as great.
- Steals. The final and most plentiful of the scarce category is steals. In general, I like to combine steals with assist to focus on two categories. However, when you can find a player with high steals and rebounds or better yet, blocks, you've found gold. Recently, somebody dropped Kenyon Martin in a 12 team league and fortunately I was able to claim him off waivers. A few weeks ago, I decided to chase rebounds and blocks in this league and have been making headway. However, I had three other teams within 2% of my total in steals. Picking up Martin gave me not only blocks and rebounds, but 1.6 steals per game. What I find strange is that few people recognize this because they see 12.5 ppg and go ho-hum. The gold is found in the scarce categories. Other players you might find on the waiver wire that provide great steals and block contribution are: Shane Battier, Marc Gasol, Wilson Chandler [although, I'm not a big fan], and Travis Outlaw.
Tip #4: Don't chase points
I say it, I preach it, but nobody ever listens – but it's so true! I win leagues every year by blowing out the scarce categories, keeping my percentages high, and finishing in the middle of the pack in points. That's not the macho way to do it, but it's the easiest way to win. What's the logic? On the waiver wire, you might find a player that will get you 15 points a game, but it's more likely you'll find a player getting 12-13 points and replace a player getting 9 points. Simple math: 25 games left, times 4 points per game, gives you 100 points. The problem is teams are averaging 9,000 to 10,000 total points and that extra 100 points will only move the needle 1%. Not a lot of value. Instead, the goal that you should employ going down the stretch is to maintain your standing in points, but don't chase them. If you must chase points, just know that it's unlikely you'll catch a team that's more than 2% ahead.
Tip #5: Respect your percentages
In a standard 8 category rotisserie league, your percentages (FG% and FT%) account for 25%. They can't be ignored! However, this late in the season, it's hard to catch a team ahead of you, but the math can quickly work against you if you add the wrong player. People are jumping on Rafer Alston since joining Orlando. While he'll get you assist, he's a terrible shooter and unfortunately, he likes to shoot. It's conceivable that adding a 40% shooter from the field can drop you .050 (example: .4650 to .4600), assuming they like to shoot. Obviously the reverse is true; except you need to add a .520 shooter to do the opposite. There is another piece to the percentage puzzle; and that's the amount a player shoots. The average player takes 11.1 shots per game from the field and 3.5 free throw attempts per game. Adding a player that shoots 40% per game and averages 5 shots per game is much different than adding a player who shoots 12 times a game. Fortunately, if they are that bad, they usually don't have a job, but some do exist of the waiver wire: Lou Williams 39% with 10.6 spg, JR Smith 43% with 11.1 spg, Daequan Cook with 38.5% and 9.2 spg. Be careful with these players as the downside risk on your percentages might not outweigh the benefit.
As always, give me your feedback and good luck!
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