I went out to grab lunch today and was listening to the “Power Alley” on the MLB Network on SiriusXM. The collective bargaining agreement (CBA) was the topic and the hosts, former GM Jim Duquette and field manager Kevin Kennedy were commenting positively on the proposed changes that commissioner Bud Selig is suggesting. In fact, based on today’s news report, we could see a signed CBA by Thanksgiving.
It amazes me how uninformed fans and even broadcast announcers are about how destructive these proposed changes will be to the game of baseball. It really boils down to a question of free market vs. price controls. Let me explain…
The current rule 4 draft (otherwise known as the June amateur draft) gives the first pick in the draft to the team finishing with the worst record in Major League Baseball the previous year, the second pick to the team with the second worse record, and so on. There are special rules that enable teams that loose players via free agency to get additional picks in the first round and/or receive “supplemental” picks between the first and second round. These picks can prove to be very helpful for teams, particularly small market teams like the Tampa Rays, as these teams collect extra draft picks when their current free agent players elect to sign with a different team. For instance, when Carl Crawford decided to sign with the Boston Red Sox, Tampa received the Red Sox first round pick as well as a supplemental pick. All told, Tampa received 12 first and supplemental round picks in the 2011 draft to compensate for loosing players to free agency.
Another major aspect of the Rule 4 draft is determining how much money you pay a draftee. The commissioner’s office provides guidance, known as a slot recommendation, for each team to use when negotiating with a player. However, for the most part, teams do not adhere to these rules because players want more money and have hired “advisors” to assist in the negotiation. These advisors (we’ll call them agents from here on out) help to increase the offer, resulting in the following results from the 2011 draft: Gerrit Cole signs an $8M signing bonus on a recommended slot of $4M and Bubby Starling signs a $7.5M bonus on a recommended slot of $3.25M. Is this good or bad?
Since I believe in the free market, I not only believe it’s a good idea, I think it’s mandatory. Here’s why…
Not all of the players drafted, want to play baseball as their first choice. Many are elite high-school athletes that are being heavily recruited to play college football or basketball and Major League Baseball needs the flexibility to allow teams to recruit. If you’re thinking that college baseball is an alternative, not so fast… One of the little known facts about college sports is that baseball is not in the same scholarship category as football and basketball. Since baseball is not a revenue sport, Division I Schools are limited to 11.5 scholarships for their entire team while football is allowed 85. Sure, there are more players needed for football, but the difference is nonetheless dramatic.
Take Bubba Starling, taken #5 overall by the Kansas City Royals in the 2011 draft. Starling is an elite two-sport athlete that had a full scholarship to play quarterback for the University of Nebraska. Kansas City had to go over-slot to get Starling to play baseball, otherwise, he would have gone to Nebraska. In the 2010 draft, the same thing happened with Zach Lee. Lee was headed to LSU to play football and was signed by the Dodgers for over-slot money. It doesn’t stop with football, Josh Bell had accepted a scholarship to play baseball at the University of Texas and it took a $5M signing bonus, almost $4M over-slot for Pittsburgh to sign him. The bottom line is that recruiting talent takes money and Major League Baseball teams need to have the flexibility to make these deals.
As the new CBA goes through it’s final edits, it appears that punitive salary caps will be instituted. In other words, teams will be given a budget, based on where they draft, to sign their entire draft class. If you want to spend all of the money on your first pick, fine, you just won’t have any money to spend on other players. Other proposals that are being considered involve the concept of a draft tax. A team can spend what they want, but will have to pay a tax, either in the form of a financial payment to the league or loss of draft choices in the following draft.
In whatever form the final edits take, these types of controls are a BAD IDEA. They will force teams to be more conservative and take players that they feel absolutely confident that they can sign for a reasonable amount. Additionally, players that are taken in later rounds, who are considered “tough signs” because of their desire to play college baseball, will more likely, now, play college baseball.
While this might help some players, college has a history of being unkind to baseball players, particularly pitchers. The goal of a college program is to win games and if that means abusing the arm of a 19-year old by having him throw 150 pitches to win a game in a February game, then that’s what will happen. Players will take the risk that playing college baseball will enhance their chances of landing high in the draft in three years and some will, but many will fall to college abuse and never be heard from again.
The bottom line is that teams will have less of an appetite to sign players like Bubba Starling or “tough-signs”. If they fail to sign a risky pick, they would have under-spent on the draft and for small market teams, that’s going to hurt. Why?
The Pirates, Nationals, and Royals have spent heavily over the past few years on the draft and now have three of the best minor league organizations in all of baseball. In fact, those three teams continued their spending ways in 2011 and were the top three teams in terms of spending on the draft. While a great minor league organization doesn’t guarantee major league success, it sure goes a long way.
Since draftees are not in the union, I would also surmise that the players union would prefer these tighter controls. The theory is that clubs will spend less money on the draft and more in the free agent market. However, history has proven that smaller market teams prefer spending $15M on a draft class to spread the wealth/bets on younger players instead of two aging veterans that may not provide long-term answers.
Changes to the Rule 4 draft rules, may move major league teams to invest even more heavily in the International free agent market. Young talent outside of the U.S is not subjected to a draft or any major league controls. In essence, they can be signed by any team for any amount of money. Because of this, many MLB teams have established baseball academies and scouting bureaus in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, and other Caribbean countries to recruit young talent. For instance, in July of 2011, the Texas Rangers gave Ronald Guzman, a young 16-year old Dominican outfielder a $3.45M signing bonus and Nomar Mazara, another 16-year old outfielder, a record-breaking $5M signing bonus. Next year, based on the new CBA rules, there may not be a player with a $5M signing bonus taken in the draft. Is this fair or reasonable? It doesn’t feel that way to me and I believe that the commissioner is making a wrong decision that will hurt Major League Baseball in the long run.
While most baseball fans will simply gloss over the CBA changes, it could have lasting effects to the great game that we all love.
Monday, November 14, 2011
Sunday, November 6, 2011
AFL Rising Stars Game
As I drove my daughter home from college in a blinding snow storm last weekend, my mind kept moving to warm sunshine and watching baseball games. I’ll have to admit that it was hard to concentrate as trees were falling onto power lines that then laid across roads, but it was the image that motivated me as I my car slid for most of the four hour trip home. With that as a backdrop, imagine my horror as I sat in the scouting section in Surprise Arizona, just a week later, bundled up with multiple socks, a heavy winter coat and gloves watching the annual Rising Stars Game. The thermometer showed 53 degrees at game time but trust me, 53 degrees at night in the desert is brutal.
The Rising Stars Game is the premier event of the Arizona Fall League (AFL), which features some of the best minor league prospects in baseball. The reason I say “some” is that the AFL is primarily a hitters league as major league baseball executives do not want to send their top pitching prospects who have just thrown 130 innings for the first time in their life. While the likes of Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, and Wil Myers are here, Matt Moore, Julio Teheran, and Taijuan Walker are lounging in their parent’s basement playing video games.
That said, one thing that has become a tradition is the professional debut of some of the top pitching prospects drafted in the previous Rule 4 draft - enter Gerrit Cole, Danny Hultzen, and Jed Bradley. All three were at the Rising Stars Game and while two of them pitched well, one of them wished they had been invited to Matt Moore’s Call of Duty tournament.
In this AFL series, I’ll detail my observations of some of the prospects that I was anxious to see and some that caught me by surprise that had me spending time between innings talking with scouts and researching stats and scouting reports at night. Buckle up, here we go…
Gerrit Cole
The Rising Stars Game featured the 2011 #1 draft pick, Gerrit Cole against the #2 pick, Danny Hultzen. From a prospect perspective, this is Ali vs. Frazier – “the Thrilla in Manilla.” Unfortunately after 6 batters, you could hear Howard Cosell screaming…down goes Frazier…down goes Frazier. In warm-up, Cole looked uncomfortable. He had no command of his off-speed pitches and hung a breaking ball on the third pitch. With a two inning limit, all you could think was uh oh… Cole’s first pitch was a 96 MHP fastball for a strike, the second was an 86 MPH slider that was nowhere near the strike zone and by the fifth pitch, Kevin Mattison, a Florida outfield prospect, hit a hard base hit to the right side. Cole was clearly agitated throughout his time on the mound, constantly kicking at the rubber like it had the Pick Six Lotto numbers underneath it.
While the stuff was flat, the pitch selection was even worse. He was throwing off-speed pitches on 2-0 counts that had most scouts looking perplexed while taking copious notes. Nick Franklin then crushed a 95 MPH fastball to right center that put the score at 2-0 before some fans had a chance to take a bite of their overcooked hot dog. Five batters later, Cole was walking to the dugout, retiring only two batters - Mike Olt on a strikeout with a slider that was a foot out of the strike zone and Jaff Decker on a ground-out.
Ok, it’s one game, in fact, it was 29 pitches, and so I think it’s safe to say we can give Cole a mulligan. I did have a chance to review film of Cole earlier in the week and saw sound mechanics that produces easy velocity. I also reviewed the film with a scout who has seen Cole extensively and he illustrated why the stuff is elite but where he’s not always repeating his delivery that is leading to inconsistent command. Also, Cole’s clearly got a great pro body at 6-4 and 220lbs that reminded me of young Roger Clemens on the mound.
I did get some interesting anecdotes on Cole’s makeup. The word is that he’s a real playful character off the mound, essentially not acting like the “alpha” male you want in an Ace but when he gets to the mound, he’s all business, even combative. I’m not sure what to make of this yet, but it is one of those things you store away.
Danny Hultzen
As bad as Gerrit Cole was Saturday night, Danny Hultzen was that good. He struck out the side in the first inning and was sitting 89-93 MPH and touched 94 twice. His command was excellent and while his secondary pitches were above average, he was able to locate them very well. Essentially that was the scouting report that I received before the game and the one that you can find publically on the Internet. He’s extremely polished with good stuff, not elite stuff and should progress quickly through the Mariner’s organization.
One thing I saw and subsequently spoke with a cross checkers at the game was a “crouchy funky delivery”. It wasn’t your prototypical long fluid lefty delivery (think Andy Pettitte) but instead was a delivery that had Hultzen bending over in the beginning before opening up as he made his way to the plate. When he did open up, many times he opened too far and created the dreaded “Inverted W”. In fact, in the film I saw the previous day, you could clearly see the “W” on most pitches – not all, but most.
After seeing two innings and multiple scouting films, I see a very good pitcher in Hultzen, but not a stud. He’ll be a solid #3 with #2 upside, particularly in Safeco and the AL West. Given his ability to locate and command his pitches, I could definitely see Hultzen making his major league debut by mid 2013 if not a cup of coffee in 2012, although the Mariners will probably closely monitor his innings in 2012 given his workload over three years at the University of Virginia.
Jed Bradley
Another lefty pitcher that made an appearance in the Rising Stars Game was Milwaukee’s first round draft pick, Jed Bradley, taken #15 overall in the 2011 Rule 4 draft. Bradley’s stuff was really good as he sat 90-93 with his fastball and was able to locate all pitches very well. I spoke with a scout after his inning and he thought Bradley’s stuff was better than Hultzen’s with another scout shaking his head – NO. Then again, it was the 7th inning and everybody was freezing by then, so he could have just been shivering.
I saw a bit of an inconsistent fastball but a plus curve and an above average change-up. I counted four change up’s with one absolutely nasty, that I regrettably forgot to write down who he threw it against. The batter was clearly thinking fastball and thought he saw fastball, but was WAY out in front. Finally, Bradley’s work ethic is supposedly off the charts with scouts raving about his make-up. He takes instruction very well and wants to get better.
Milwaukee does not have a long history of developing pitchers, which is why they felt compelled to move Brett Lawrie for Shawn Marcum as well as bringing in Zack Greinke. However, I’m feeling really good about Jed Bradley’s chances and everybody should put him on their radar.
Jean Segura
Before I share my observations about Jean Segura, you need to know that I have a huge “man crush” on the 21 year old Dominican. I think he’s the real deal with a plus hit tool, plus speed, and enough range to play shortstop. I see him as a first division starter with all-star potential.
The first thing you notice about Jean Segura is the body. He has gigantic legs and in fact, they almost look too developed. He’s not a big guy, even though he was listed in the press guide at 5-11 and 160. I’m guessing he’s more 5-8 to 5-9 but unfortunately the Surprise Stadium officials neglected to put up the measuring tape you see as you leave a Convenience store… a measuring tape on the net, hmmm???
Secondly, Segura has a very wide batting stance that allows him to achieve great plate coverage but reduces his ability to hit for power. There is very little movement in both his lower and upper body, but I saw him hit ropes in both games and batting practice. While I believe the raw power is there, I see his current approach yielding 10-12 home runs as a ceiling.
The speed is 60 on a 20 to 80 scale as I clocked him on three separate occasions down the first base line to an average of 4.19 from the right side. In a close play in the Rising Stars Game, I clocked him at 4.21 down the line. I doubt he will duplicate the 50 stolen bases he had in Low-A in 2010 once he makes the Majors, but there is easy 30 stolen base potential.
Finally is the defense. The Angels decided to move Segura to shortstop this year and while a hamstring injury reduced his playing time, what I saw was pretty impressive. He made an acrobatic play in the Rising Stars Game that had the entire stadium applauding. Granted it came after a pitiful play by his counter-part, game MVP Nick Franklin, but I believe the range and arm speed will play just fine at short.
Segura should move to Double-A next year and assuming his hamstring injury is behind him, don’t be surprised if you see Segura get a September call-up in 2012. If not, 2013 could be the year where the Angels bat Trout #1 and Segura #2…for a long-time.
Next time out, I’ll provide profiles of additional players I saw in Arizona including Bryce Harper – and let me tell you…it’s time to believe the HYPE!
The Rising Stars Game is the premier event of the Arizona Fall League (AFL), which features some of the best minor league prospects in baseball. The reason I say “some” is that the AFL is primarily a hitters league as major league baseball executives do not want to send their top pitching prospects who have just thrown 130 innings for the first time in their life. While the likes of Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, and Wil Myers are here, Matt Moore, Julio Teheran, and Taijuan Walker are lounging in their parent’s basement playing video games.
That said, one thing that has become a tradition is the professional debut of some of the top pitching prospects drafted in the previous Rule 4 draft - enter Gerrit Cole, Danny Hultzen, and Jed Bradley. All three were at the Rising Stars Game and while two of them pitched well, one of them wished they had been invited to Matt Moore’s Call of Duty tournament.
In this AFL series, I’ll detail my observations of some of the prospects that I was anxious to see and some that caught me by surprise that had me spending time between innings talking with scouts and researching stats and scouting reports at night. Buckle up, here we go…
Gerrit Cole
The Rising Stars Game featured the 2011 #1 draft pick, Gerrit Cole against the #2 pick, Danny Hultzen. From a prospect perspective, this is Ali vs. Frazier – “the Thrilla in Manilla.” Unfortunately after 6 batters, you could hear Howard Cosell screaming…down goes Frazier…down goes Frazier. In warm-up, Cole looked uncomfortable. He had no command of his off-speed pitches and hung a breaking ball on the third pitch. With a two inning limit, all you could think was uh oh… Cole’s first pitch was a 96 MHP fastball for a strike, the second was an 86 MPH slider that was nowhere near the strike zone and by the fifth pitch, Kevin Mattison, a Florida outfield prospect, hit a hard base hit to the right side. Cole was clearly agitated throughout his time on the mound, constantly kicking at the rubber like it had the Pick Six Lotto numbers underneath it.
While the stuff was flat, the pitch selection was even worse. He was throwing off-speed pitches on 2-0 counts that had most scouts looking perplexed while taking copious notes. Nick Franklin then crushed a 95 MPH fastball to right center that put the score at 2-0 before some fans had a chance to take a bite of their overcooked hot dog. Five batters later, Cole was walking to the dugout, retiring only two batters - Mike Olt on a strikeout with a slider that was a foot out of the strike zone and Jaff Decker on a ground-out.
Ok, it’s one game, in fact, it was 29 pitches, and so I think it’s safe to say we can give Cole a mulligan. I did have a chance to review film of Cole earlier in the week and saw sound mechanics that produces easy velocity. I also reviewed the film with a scout who has seen Cole extensively and he illustrated why the stuff is elite but where he’s not always repeating his delivery that is leading to inconsistent command. Also, Cole’s clearly got a great pro body at 6-4 and 220lbs that reminded me of young Roger Clemens on the mound.
I did get some interesting anecdotes on Cole’s makeup. The word is that he’s a real playful character off the mound, essentially not acting like the “alpha” male you want in an Ace but when he gets to the mound, he’s all business, even combative. I’m not sure what to make of this yet, but it is one of those things you store away.
Danny Hultzen
As bad as Gerrit Cole was Saturday night, Danny Hultzen was that good. He struck out the side in the first inning and was sitting 89-93 MPH and touched 94 twice. His command was excellent and while his secondary pitches were above average, he was able to locate them very well. Essentially that was the scouting report that I received before the game and the one that you can find publically on the Internet. He’s extremely polished with good stuff, not elite stuff and should progress quickly through the Mariner’s organization.
One thing I saw and subsequently spoke with a cross checkers at the game was a “crouchy funky delivery”. It wasn’t your prototypical long fluid lefty delivery (think Andy Pettitte) but instead was a delivery that had Hultzen bending over in the beginning before opening up as he made his way to the plate. When he did open up, many times he opened too far and created the dreaded “Inverted W”. In fact, in the film I saw the previous day, you could clearly see the “W” on most pitches – not all, but most.
After seeing two innings and multiple scouting films, I see a very good pitcher in Hultzen, but not a stud. He’ll be a solid #3 with #2 upside, particularly in Safeco and the AL West. Given his ability to locate and command his pitches, I could definitely see Hultzen making his major league debut by mid 2013 if not a cup of coffee in 2012, although the Mariners will probably closely monitor his innings in 2012 given his workload over three years at the University of Virginia.
Jed Bradley
Another lefty pitcher that made an appearance in the Rising Stars Game was Milwaukee’s first round draft pick, Jed Bradley, taken #15 overall in the 2011 Rule 4 draft. Bradley’s stuff was really good as he sat 90-93 with his fastball and was able to locate all pitches very well. I spoke with a scout after his inning and he thought Bradley’s stuff was better than Hultzen’s with another scout shaking his head – NO. Then again, it was the 7th inning and everybody was freezing by then, so he could have just been shivering.
I saw a bit of an inconsistent fastball but a plus curve and an above average change-up. I counted four change up’s with one absolutely nasty, that I regrettably forgot to write down who he threw it against. The batter was clearly thinking fastball and thought he saw fastball, but was WAY out in front. Finally, Bradley’s work ethic is supposedly off the charts with scouts raving about his make-up. He takes instruction very well and wants to get better.
Milwaukee does not have a long history of developing pitchers, which is why they felt compelled to move Brett Lawrie for Shawn Marcum as well as bringing in Zack Greinke. However, I’m feeling really good about Jed Bradley’s chances and everybody should put him on their radar.
Jean Segura
Before I share my observations about Jean Segura, you need to know that I have a huge “man crush” on the 21 year old Dominican. I think he’s the real deal with a plus hit tool, plus speed, and enough range to play shortstop. I see him as a first division starter with all-star potential.
The first thing you notice about Jean Segura is the body. He has gigantic legs and in fact, they almost look too developed. He’s not a big guy, even though he was listed in the press guide at 5-11 and 160. I’m guessing he’s more 5-8 to 5-9 but unfortunately the Surprise Stadium officials neglected to put up the measuring tape you see as you leave a Convenience store… a measuring tape on the net, hmmm???
Secondly, Segura has a very wide batting stance that allows him to achieve great plate coverage but reduces his ability to hit for power. There is very little movement in both his lower and upper body, but I saw him hit ropes in both games and batting practice. While I believe the raw power is there, I see his current approach yielding 10-12 home runs as a ceiling.
The speed is 60 on a 20 to 80 scale as I clocked him on three separate occasions down the first base line to an average of 4.19 from the right side. In a close play in the Rising Stars Game, I clocked him at 4.21 down the line. I doubt he will duplicate the 50 stolen bases he had in Low-A in 2010 once he makes the Majors, but there is easy 30 stolen base potential.
Finally is the defense. The Angels decided to move Segura to shortstop this year and while a hamstring injury reduced his playing time, what I saw was pretty impressive. He made an acrobatic play in the Rising Stars Game that had the entire stadium applauding. Granted it came after a pitiful play by his counter-part, game MVP Nick Franklin, but I believe the range and arm speed will play just fine at short.
Segura should move to Double-A next year and assuming his hamstring injury is behind him, don’t be surprised if you see Segura get a September call-up in 2012. If not, 2013 could be the year where the Angels bat Trout #1 and Segura #2…for a long-time.
Next time out, I’ll provide profiles of additional players I saw in Arizona including Bryce Harper – and let me tell you…it’s time to believe the HYPE!
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
2011 Arizona Fall League Prospects - Salt River Rafters
The final installment in my AFL Prospect Review takes us to the Salt River Rafters that comprise players from the Astros, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Rockies, and Tigers.
It's a bit slim pickings with the Rafters, but here are some of the players I find the most interesting.
Detroit LHP: Casey Crosby
At the end of the 2009 season, there were high hopes for Casey Crosby developing into a top of the rotation starter following his successful recovery from TJS. While he still has top of the rotation stuff, continued elbow troubles and poor control have plagued him every since. There are rumblings that Detroit is considering moving Crosby to the pen and that is what Detroit will test in the AFL. So far, the results have not been great. In 7 innings, he’s walked 7.
Colorado 3B: Nolan Arenado
Drafted in the second round in 2008, Arenado has a plus hit tool with gap power that should eventually translate into 20-25 home run power in the majors. In High-A Modesto, he had an elite 90% contact rate and a passable 9% walk rate. In the AFL, the great hitting has continued with a .392 batting average in 74 at-bats.
Arizona OF: Adam Eaton
At 5-9, teams passed over Adam Eaton until Arizona grabbed him in the 19th round of the 2010 amateur draft. All he’s done since being drafted is hit. Across High-A and Double-A, Eaton batted .318 with a 76K/72BB rate while hitting 10 home runs and stealing 34 bases. The big problem is the defense. He doesn’t profile as a center fielder which leaves scouts believing he’ll be a tweener (aka, a fourth outfielder). All that said, Eaton continues to rake in the AFL, batting .338 with 6 stolen bases.
Colorado OF: Tim Wheeler
Taken in the first round in 2009, Tim Wheeler played poorly in 2010, hitting only .249 in the hitter friendly confines of Modesto in the CAL league. He’s turned that around this year by slamming 33 home runs and batting .287 in Double-A Tulsa. His .287 average is being supported by a fairly high BABIP but when taken all together, there’s a lot to like with Wheeler.
Los Angeles OF: Alex Castellanos
Not to be confused with Nick Castellanos, Alex is a 25 year-old late bloomer that was part of the Rafael Furcal trade. Scouts like his hit tool as is demonstrated by his .320 average and 21 home runs in Double-A. The contact rate (76%) and walk rate (8%) are both average. In 29 at-bats in the AFL, he’s batting .379 with 3 home runs.
It's a bit slim pickings with the Rafters, but here are some of the players I find the most interesting.
Detroit LHP: Casey Crosby
At the end of the 2009 season, there were high hopes for Casey Crosby developing into a top of the rotation starter following his successful recovery from TJS. While he still has top of the rotation stuff, continued elbow troubles and poor control have plagued him every since. There are rumblings that Detroit is considering moving Crosby to the pen and that is what Detroit will test in the AFL. So far, the results have not been great. In 7 innings, he’s walked 7.
Colorado 3B: Nolan Arenado
Drafted in the second round in 2008, Arenado has a plus hit tool with gap power that should eventually translate into 20-25 home run power in the majors. In High-A Modesto, he had an elite 90% contact rate and a passable 9% walk rate. In the AFL, the great hitting has continued with a .392 batting average in 74 at-bats.
Arizona OF: Adam Eaton
At 5-9, teams passed over Adam Eaton until Arizona grabbed him in the 19th round of the 2010 amateur draft. All he’s done since being drafted is hit. Across High-A and Double-A, Eaton batted .318 with a 76K/72BB rate while hitting 10 home runs and stealing 34 bases. The big problem is the defense. He doesn’t profile as a center fielder which leaves scouts believing he’ll be a tweener (aka, a fourth outfielder). All that said, Eaton continues to rake in the AFL, batting .338 with 6 stolen bases.
Colorado OF: Tim Wheeler
Taken in the first round in 2009, Tim Wheeler played poorly in 2010, hitting only .249 in the hitter friendly confines of Modesto in the CAL league. He’s turned that around this year by slamming 33 home runs and batting .287 in Double-A Tulsa. His .287 average is being supported by a fairly high BABIP but when taken all together, there’s a lot to like with Wheeler.
Los Angeles OF: Alex Castellanos
Not to be confused with Nick Castellanos, Alex is a 25 year-old late bloomer that was part of the Rafael Furcal trade. Scouts like his hit tool as is demonstrated by his .320 average and 21 home runs in Double-A. The contact rate (76%) and walk rate (8%) are both average. In 29 at-bats in the AFL, he’s batting .379 with 3 home runs.
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
2011 Arizona Fall League Prospects - Phoenix Desert Dogs
The Phoenix Desert Dogs of the Arizona Fall League have players form the A's, Jays, Indians, Reds, and Yankees. Since many of these teams have deep farm systems, the Dogs are one of the better teams to observe when in Arizona.
Here are a list of some of the more interesting prospects on the Desert Dogs.
Cincinnati Catcher: Yasmani Grandal
Grandal gets overlooked as the other catcher in the Cincinnati farm system. While Grandal doesn’t have the upside of Mesoraco, he still has the offensive skill-set to become an elite backstop and hit in the middle of the lineup. With plus power and a great approach to hitting, Grandal went through three levels in the minor league ending in Triple-A and batted .305, with a .401 OBP while adding 14 home runs. A contact rate of 74% could be better, but there is a lot to like here. Unfortunately, after an injury to his left middle finger, Grandal was shut down and sent home. The good news is it does not appear serious and he should be ready for Spring Training.
Toronto SS: Adeiny Hechaverria
Hechaverria defected from Cuba in 2010 to a lot of fanfare as scouts and fans alike wanted to see the glove that played so well on the International stage. While the glove was great, the bat was not. In 986 professional at-bats, Hechaverria is batting .255 with 12 home runs and 33 stolen bases out of 51 attempts. The approach is poor as Hechaverria is walking only 5% of the time. In 54 at-bats in the AFL, it’s been more of the same – great defense with a .241 average with no home runs or stolen bases.
Oakland OF: Michael Choice
Oakland has searched for a long-time for a middle of the order power bat and may have found one in Michael Choice. Taken as the #10 overall pick in the 2010 draft, Choice dominated the CAL league by hitting 30 home runs and batting .285. While his strikeout rate was high at 28%, Choice did shorten his swing throughout the year and dropped his strikeout rate significantly without loosing power. He’s been one of the more impressive players in the AFL, belting 6 home runs in only 51 AB’s while carrying a .333 batting average.
Jays OF: Anthony Gose
Gose is another in a long-line of toolsy players that is learning how to hit...but boy are the tools good. In Double-A, Gose stole 70 bases and hit 16 home runs but struck out 154 times in 509 AB’s. Gose started off hot in the AFL but has cooled in the past two weeks to a .260 average with 3 home runs and 4 stolen bases. However, in 77 at-bats, he has struck out 23 times.
Oakland OF: Grant Green
The future shortstop for the Oakland A’s was suppose to be Grant Green. However, the player development process is flexible and during the 2011 season, Green was moved to center field. Green is a nice complete player without one true outstanding tool. His Double-A stat line proves the point. In 530 at-bats, he batted .291 with a .343 OBP, 9 home runs, and 6 stolen bases in 14 attempts. In 66 at-bats in the AFL, Green is batting .258 with 2 home runs and 2 caught stealing.
Here are a list of some of the more interesting prospects on the Desert Dogs.
Cincinnati Catcher: Yasmani Grandal
Grandal gets overlooked as the other catcher in the Cincinnati farm system. While Grandal doesn’t have the upside of Mesoraco, he still has the offensive skill-set to become an elite backstop and hit in the middle of the lineup. With plus power and a great approach to hitting, Grandal went through three levels in the minor league ending in Triple-A and batted .305, with a .401 OBP while adding 14 home runs. A contact rate of 74% could be better, but there is a lot to like here. Unfortunately, after an injury to his left middle finger, Grandal was shut down and sent home. The good news is it does not appear serious and he should be ready for Spring Training.
Toronto SS: Adeiny Hechaverria
Hechaverria defected from Cuba in 2010 to a lot of fanfare as scouts and fans alike wanted to see the glove that played so well on the International stage. While the glove was great, the bat was not. In 986 professional at-bats, Hechaverria is batting .255 with 12 home runs and 33 stolen bases out of 51 attempts. The approach is poor as Hechaverria is walking only 5% of the time. In 54 at-bats in the AFL, it’s been more of the same – great defense with a .241 average with no home runs or stolen bases.
Oakland OF: Michael Choice
Oakland has searched for a long-time for a middle of the order power bat and may have found one in Michael Choice. Taken as the #10 overall pick in the 2010 draft, Choice dominated the CAL league by hitting 30 home runs and batting .285. While his strikeout rate was high at 28%, Choice did shorten his swing throughout the year and dropped his strikeout rate significantly without loosing power. He’s been one of the more impressive players in the AFL, belting 6 home runs in only 51 AB’s while carrying a .333 batting average.
Jays OF: Anthony Gose
Gose is another in a long-line of toolsy players that is learning how to hit...but boy are the tools good. In Double-A, Gose stole 70 bases and hit 16 home runs but struck out 154 times in 509 AB’s. Gose started off hot in the AFL but has cooled in the past two weeks to a .260 average with 3 home runs and 4 stolen bases. However, in 77 at-bats, he has struck out 23 times.
Oakland OF: Grant Green
The future shortstop for the Oakland A’s was suppose to be Grant Green. However, the player development process is flexible and during the 2011 season, Green was moved to center field. Green is a nice complete player without one true outstanding tool. His Double-A stat line proves the point. In 530 at-bats, he batted .291 with a .343 OBP, 9 home runs, and 6 stolen bases in 14 attempts. In 66 at-bats in the AFL, Green is batting .258 with 2 home runs and 2 caught stealing.
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