Matt Dominquez (Fla) - The strong and athletic 21-year old is listed as the #1 organizational prospect in the Marlins organization. The scouts love his glove but have always worried whether he'll be able to hit enough in the majors.
First the glove...it's exceptional and already major league ready. Many scouts rank his fielding and throwing ability at 70+. The glove alone should be able to help a sub-optimal Marlins infield that has been seeking fielding help for years.
What about the hitting? The contact rate was very good at 81% and his bb% was also excellent at 10%, but the worry is the power. Last year in AA Jacksonville, Dominquez slugged 14 home runs in 504 AB's. At a power position like third base, that could provide a problem for the Marlins. While AA is a long way from the majors, 14 home runs would have ranked 23rd for Major League third baseman.
Expect Dominquez to make an impact for the Marlins during the 2011 season with 300 AB's and 7-10 home runs with a .270 average. Looking out to 2014, I would not be surprised if we see Dominquez develop more pop and hit 18-20 home runs with a .280 average and multiple gold glove awards. For fantasy players, don't completely dismiss the fielding as this will keep Dominquez in lineups.
Mike Moustakas (KC) - I had a chance to see the much talked about Moustakas in both the Arizona Fall League and in several spring training games. Let me say that I was shocked by his size. He looks more like a junior college nose tackle as opposed to one of the most promising minor league prospects. While he's listed at 5-11 and 230, he looks shorter and heavier than those stats. Does it matter? If the bat speed is there, not as much.
Moustakas led the minor leagues in home runs with 36 in 2010 with a great contact rate of 86%. The majority of the home runs did come at the coozy confines of NW Arkansas and the hitter friendly Midwest league. That said, his power should translate into 20-25 home runs in the majors, although the pitcher friendly Kauffman stadium in Kansas City will be a concern as it suppresses home runs for left-handed hitters by 28% .
A larger concern will be his batting average. While you've got to love the contact rate, the walk rate was 3% in 225 AB's in AAA, which if not corrected, will keep his batting average in the .260 to .270 range.
Moustakas will start the season in the minors but should be a late May call-up after his Super Two eligibility is covered. I believe he'll challenge for Rookie of the year honors but fall short as the power will not be there. Long-term, I see Moustakas as a solid regular third baseman but not an all-star.
Lonnie Chisenhall (Cle) - Another 3B listed as the #1 organizational prospect by Baseball America, Chisenhall brings a very nice lefty swing that generated an 84% contact rate and a 9% walk rate in AA Akron last year. He has slightly more power than Dominquez, raking for 17 home runs last year and once fully developed, projects 20-25 home run power. From a glove standpoint, Chisenhall is adequate but not great. However, it should be good enough to remain at 3B for many years to come.
Expect Chisenhall to start the year in AAA but make his way up to big club by mid-season. A definite play for AL Only leagues but only as a pickup in deep mixed leagues (15+ teams). By 2014, expect Chisenhall to be a solid 3B contributor, maybe even a top 10 fantasy 3B, but just short of all-star caliber.
Brett Lawrie (Tor) - Arguably, the most talented of the foursome is Canadian, and former 2009 first round pick for the Brewers, Brett Lawrie (pronounced Low-ry). Lawrie has 20+/20+ potential with the only thing lacking - a position to play.
Drafted as a catcher/2B, he was moved to 3B by Toronto after the trade, straight up, for Shaun Marcum. He's had a nice spring, batting .357 with two home runs and two steals in a limit sample size of 28 AB's.
Last year, as a 20 year-old in AA Huntsville, he batted .280 with 8 home runs and 30 stolen bases. While the power is yet to completely develop, eight home runs at age 20 against AA pitching is encouraging. His contact rate was 80% with a 8% walk rate, fully supporting his .280 batting average with some upside.
There have been rumblings about Lawrie's maturity. His Facebook page was covered with what some called racy, I call them goofy pictures of his 6 pack and his hot girlfriend. While you never dismiss anything about a young man's character, I've yet to see anything overly concerning about Lawrie's character except that of a 20-year old doing 20-year old stuff.
Expect to see Lawrie up for a cup of coffee in 2011 and possibly earlier if he continues to rake; which is a real possibility. Long-term, Lawrie could develop into a David Wright all-star performer at 3B with 20+/20+ potential and a nice batting average.
How I rank them...
For 2011,
1) Moustakas
2) Dominquez
3) Chisenhall
4) Lawrie
Long-term (2014),
1) Lawrie
2) Chisenhall
3) Moustakas
4) Dominquez
Solid review Rich. My only complaint is your desk is way to neat and tidy. All that empty space should be filled with notes and cheat sheets, LOL.
ReplyDeleteThe problem with Domingez is his inability to hit off speed pitches.
ReplyDeleteHis plus plus defense can't be argued with, but until he learns to hit a breaking ball, major league pitching will throw him junk all day long.
His power is well below average and I fear he will be at the Medoza level.
Back to the minors in may.
Markus Potter
That is my fear as well Markus...but if he can learn to hit the curve, and that's a big if, there could be something special there.
ReplyDelete