The calculus of owning Allen Iverson

In every fantasy season, whether it's Fantasy Basketball, Football, Baseball, or even Darts, there usually comes a time in the season where you've got to take a calculated gamble. It can make the difference between being in the money or staring up at the leaders the rest of the season.

This year in Fantasy Basketball, that time is now.

There is increasing speculation that Allen Iverson is going to join the Knicks by the end of the week. In fact, some newspapers are reporting that AI will join the team by Friday and play against the Nets on Saturday. Is it certain? Nobody knows, but there are a number of reasons that the Knicks would like this to happen.

1. The Knicks are terrible. I got a chance to see them play against the Warriors last Friday and it was atrocious. They have some decent complementary players like David Lee and Al Harrington, but they don't have a player that can break down the defense and score. Additionally, Chris Duhon can not make a shot. Over the last five games, he's averaging 2.8 points per game (PPG) on 3 of 30 shooting. Talk about a slump! Iverson can provide the scoring and floor leadership they need. Yes, he'll dominate the ball, but they need that at the moment as the "looks" that the current players are getting at the basket are not good.
   
2. There were empty seats in the Garden. I've gone to a number of games over the years in the Garden and I've seen empty seats, but usually in February and March – not the middle on November. There's no buzz in New York about the Knicks and they've become a laughing stock. Yes people are buying into the 2010 summer free agent year logic, but the loss of revenue at the Garden is hurting. Allen Iverson can provide the draw that will put people into seats; at least temporarily.
   
3. What's the downside for the Knicks? They are not making the playoffs and they are not going to make any move that will jeopardize their chances to land one or two elite free agents next year. Allen Iverson will be signed as a mid-level exception or a veteran league minimum, which both by definition will be expiring contracts.
   

If you buy the above logic, then the big question is should you take a flyer on Iverson even if there's a chance he doesn't join the Knicks? I think the answer is yes. Iverson will thrive in the D'Antoni run and gun style. In fact, it's perfect for him. His game is to take defenders off the dribble, penetrate, shoot or kick the ball out. That's the D'Antoni system!

Also, what's the downside risk? Players on the end of your bench are by definition average. The typical end of your bench player will provide the following fantasy per game contribution: 9.2 points, 4.1 boards, 1.9 assists, 0.5 steals and blocks, and shoot 45% from the field and 73% from the line. The likelihood of Iverson out performing this stat line is extremely high. If Iverson is not picked up by the Knicks, then you pick up another average player.

I've taken the plunge this afternoon and put Iverson on every team where he was available. Time for you to do the same!