Monday, March 23, 2009

Late Pickups

As we wind down the Fantasy Basketball season, injuries are becoming a problem for our Fantasy teams. Below is a list of players that might prove valuable…

These players need to be on your team

I have a lot of love for Chris Andersen of Denver. He's averaging over 7 rebounds per game and an impressive 3.1 blocks per game over the past 30 days. That's tops in the league by over .5 blocks. Owned in only 7% of leagues, owners are looking at his 7 points per game and missing out on the goodness.

With Biendris down, Ronny Turiaf is a must pickup. He'll contribute 2-3 blocks per game and decent rebounding as well, although to-date, the rebounds have not been as plentiful as I would have anticipated.

Antonio McDyess is playing like he did when he first came into the league, averaging 13.3 ppg, 11.7 rpg, 51% from the field, and 95% from the line over the past 30 days. Why he's only owned in 38% of leagues is beyond me. I do believe McDyess can keep it up the rest of the season as his legs should be relatively fresh given his playing time early in the season.

There's not much going on in Sacramento-land, but Jason Thompson doesn't know it. Averaging 10.7 ppg, 8.1 rpg, and almost a block per game, Thompson will make a nice addition to your squad down the stretch.

I don't know the reason, but Jarrett Jack is putting up monster numbers: 19.8 ppg, 1.3 three pointers per game, 3.6 asg, while shooting 51% from the field and 85% from the line over the past 30 days. Why is he only owned in 36% of leagues????

With Devin Harris out, Keyon Dooling is the pickup, averaging 10.3 ppg and 5.8 asg over the past two weeks.

All the injuries in Washington are providing opportunities for Darius Songailia. Over the past two weeks, Songailia has averaged 11.1 ppg, 1.5 spg, while shooting 54% from the field and 93% from the line. If Caron Butler or dare we say it, Glibert Arenas ever play again this season, it will hurt Songailia's value, but I like the odds; get him into your lineups.

Thabo Sefolosha, a name that's hard to say, but he's shown the Oak City brain trust that he can play when Durant went out. Sefolosha has averaged 2.3 steals per game and 1.8 blocks per game over the past two weeks. Yes Durant is back, but something tells me that Sefolosha will continue to get minutes.

Kelenna Azubuike continues to excel in Golden State, but is only owned in 27% of leagues. Here's his line over the past two weeks: 15.4 ppg, 1.4 3PM, 5.7 rpg, shooting 50% from the field and 85% from the line. What's not to like???


Predictions coming true

Two months ago, I examined players on a per minute basis and compared them to their overall output and saw Fantasy gold surfacing. Well, for JR Smith and Brandon Wright, it's happening.

Over the past month, JR Smith has finally gotten his minutes and has rewarded his owners with 18 ppg, 2.3 three pointers, 3.9 rpg, and 3.1 apg, while shooting nice percentages. Owned in less than 50% of leagues, don't let JR slip by you.

Brandan Wright was hurt for two months with a shoulder injury, but he's back and getting playing time in Golden State. Since returning, Wright has averaged 10.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.5 bpg, and .8 spg and that's with only averaging 21 minutes per game. He's got a great pedigree from UNC and will be a player the rest of the season and an intriguing player for next year.


Pick up at your own risk

Three point specialist are the ultimate risk reward player. If they are shooting well, it's great, if not you've just killed your FG%. Three guys that are playing well over the past two weeks are Rasual Butler, Roger Mason, and Anthony Morrow.

Rasual Butler is averaging 2.0 three pointers and is the safest and most productive pick of the three.

Roger Mason is averaging 1.9 three pointers per game and is really streaky.

Anthony Morrow is really interesting. A pure jump shooter, he can go off at any time, but with Nellie at the helm, no telling what kind of playing time he'll get. Watch him carefully.


Digging deep

The remaining players should be considered for deep leagues only.

Ronald Murray – no idea what's happening here, but over the past two weeks, you have to like the line; 13.4 ppg, 1.1 spg, and 1.3 three pointers.

Renaldo Balkman – got a run when Kenyon Martin went down, but is now taking playing time from Chris Andersen. You can't ignore his double double over the past two weeks.

Steve Novak – It's dicey picking up Clippers, but Novak has hit 3.6 three pointers over the past two weeks.

Dominic McGuire – 5.5 rpg, 1.5 spg, and 0.9 bpg. Intriguing.

Nenad Kristic – He's the starting center for an NBA franchise and he's only owned in less than 3% of Fantasy clubs. I guess owners don't like the 6.5 rebounds per game and 1.1 blocks per game. 15 team leagues need to have Kristic on their team.

Friday, March 6, 2009

Analyzing Players through pure regression analysis

There are all types of methods to evaluate and compare basketball players in order to determine their relative value to a Fantasy team. One of the simplest and purest form is to group players by position and compare their output for each of the standard 8 fantasy categories. To accomplish, you need to understand two basic statistical principles:

MeanThe average value of a category when viewed over a number of players. For example: let's look at four player's rebound stats (4, 6, 7, 9). A simple calculation of 26/4 results in a 6.5 average.

Standard Deviation STDEVThe standard deviation measures the variability of the data set (in the above example – rebounds). Knowing this variability enables you to determine where the player ranks amongst his peers. Assuming normal distribution, which all the data we are exploring falls into, 68% of players will fall into 1 STDEV from the mean, 95% falls into 2 STDEV, and 99.7% falls into 3 STDEV. Therefore a player who contributes above 1 or better yet 2 STDEV from the mean in a category is providing clear domination and is exceptionally valuable.

Hopefully I haven't bored you to tears, but understanding the basic concepts will help you appreciate the underlying statistical reasons why players like Dwayne Wade are truly valuable. Yes, Wade scores lots of points, but his real value is blocks. Wade blocks 1.4 shots per game, which is 6 STDEV above the mean of .2 for shooting guards. For you math nerds, that puts Wade in the 99.9999998 percentile of players or basically, he stands alone. The next player in that category gets .4. Plus, Wade gets contribution in every category except for FT%, where he actually hurts you. Shooting guards provide the highest FT% of all groups at 81% efficiency. Wade shoots 77%, which is well within one STDEV, however, he attempts 9.4 shots per game and therefore his FT% does provide a drag on your overall percentage. He can't tank the category like Dwight Howard can, but he does hurt it. However, he more than makes up for it in all other categories and why he's ranks as the top SG in the league, by a wide margin.

Let's look at the top players around the league:


 

Point Guard

1

Chris Paul

240.28

2

Jason Kidd

158.31

3

Chauncey Billups

133.87

4

Jameer Nelson

93.69

5

Deron Williams

91.48

6

Devin Harris

85.25

7

Tony Parker

81.10

8

Mo Williams

68.66

9

Andre Miller

67.19

10

Mike Bibby

66.60

11

Nate Robinson

63.28

12

Derrick Rose

55.81

13

Jamal Crawford

52.15

14

Raymond Felton

50.35

15

Steve Nash

44.43

16

TJ Ford

34.92

17

Luke Ridnour

32.31

18

Chris Duhon

23.34

19

Kirk Hinrich

19.86

20

Rajon Rondo

16.55

Chris Paul continues to dominate point guards by being a six category contributor and only provides negative contribution in blocks and 3 point shooting, despite averaging nearly .8 per game in 3's. The problem is the average 3PM for the top 50 PG in the league is .973 per game with a standard deviation of .614. However, his total domination in steals and assist more than make up for his slightly less than average 3 point shooting. He's averaging 11 assist per game, which is 2.5 STDEV from the average among PG's in the league. Bottom line…Chris Paul is one of the three absolute Fantasy Studs playing the game today.

How are some of the young PG's doing in the league? Derrick Rose is having a great rookie campaign, led by outstanding shooting from the field. The average FG% for point guards is 43% with a total of 9.5 shots attempted per game. Rose is shooting 47% but is also taking almost 15 shots per game. From a fantasy perspective, this creates excellent FG% contribution from the PG position and can absolutely help a team. Why? You expect your PF and Centers to shoot well, but when you get high FG% contribution from a typical poor shooting position, it provides fantastic value.

Let's contrast Rose with Rajon Rondo. Rondo's a great player and an excellent source of assist, rebounds, and steals. However, even though he is shooting 50% on the year, he is only taking 9 shots per game, which is slightly below the league average for point guards. In essence, his FG% doesn't hurt your team, but it really doesn't help it all that much either. Rondo also doesn't provide much 3 point shooting or point contribution. He is scoring 11 ppg which is league average for PG's, but he's only making .3's per game, which is over one standard deviation from average. Finally, Rondo is not a very good free throw shooter, averaging 63.5% from the line while attempting 3.4 shoots. That 3.4 shots is .5 STDEV from average and is really negatively affecting his value. As Rondo grows and learns to shoot better, he will likely grow into a Jason Kidd type player, which as you can see from the list, is stillproviding tremendous value for his owners. By the way, Kidd's biggest component is his blocks per shot, which is at .6 per game. Compared to Dwight Howard, it's miniscule, however for a point guard, it's 3 STDEV from average.


 


 

Shooting Guard

1

Dwyane Wade

327.71

2

Kobe Bryant

264.95

3

Brandon Roy

158.92

4

Manu Ginobili

125.43

5

Jason Terry

123.63

6

Kevin Martin

109.73

7

Ben Gordon

100.24

8

Ray Allen

80.36

9

OJ Mayo

77.93

10

Eric Gordon

77.93

Kobe might be considered the NBA's clutch champion, Dwayne Wade however, is the best shooting guard in the league; and it's not even close. Kevin Martin is quietly have a nice year and ranks #5. This actually surprised me. His value is coming from two main areas: 3's and FT%. He's average 2.3 3's per game, which is 3 STDEV from mean. However, his FT% is over the top. He's shooting 86% from the line, but he's taking 9.7 shots per game or 3 STDEV from average. He's basically a category stud. Oh yeah, he's also scoring 20.3 points per game, which is 1.5 STDEV from mean. All good stuff. OJ Mayo is the top rookie and what I like about Mayo is his consistency. Besides blocks, which only Wade contributes in the SG group, Mayo provides positive contribution in each category. Mayo is only going to get better and should be one of the top 5 shooting guards taken next year.


 

Forwards

1

LeBron James

225.88

2

Kevin Durant

205.78

3

Danny Granger

196.26

4

Amare Stoudemire

176.83

5

Dirk Nowitzki

170.25

6

Chris Bosh

138.87

7

David West

125.11

8

Kevin Garnett

118.40

9

Caron Butler

110.89

10

Gerald Wallace

110.41

No surprise here – Lebron is the King. What might be surprising is who's in #2 – Kevin Durant. Yes, Durant is eligible in most leagues at both SG and SF, but who are we kidding, he's 6'10'' – he's forward. Durant is having his breakout year with a stat line somewhat, stress the somewhat, comparable to Lebron (1.4 to 1.5 3PM's, 6.6 rebounds to 7.3, 1.3 to 1.7 steals, .8 to 1.2 blocks, and 26 to 28.3 points). It breaks down in assist where Lebron cleans up at 7.1 vs. 3.0. However, Durant's sneaky value over Lebron comes from his free throw percentage. Durant is shooting 86% to Lebron's 77%, both are over the Forward average of 76%, but Durant's 7.1 attempts per game is the accelerator, which is 2.5 STDEV above mean. Folks, Durant is here to stay and is likely a first round draft pick next year.

Danny Granger is also having an excellent season this year and ranks #3. The only blemish on his resume is a below average FG% (43.4 vs. a Forward average of 46.2). However, look at his blocks per game average of 1.5. That's 3 STDEV above mean for forwards. That's even 1 STDEV above mean for centers. Granger is one of the most valuable shoot blockers in the league and it's one of the reasons for his dramatically increased value. If your all about points, Granger also gets you 25 points per game. With Durant, I think Granger moves into the first round next year.


 

Centers

1

Yao Ming

180.52

2

Mehmet Okur

142.96

3

Pau Gasol

138.68

4

Dwight Howard

133.43

5

Tim Duncan

124.11

6

Nene

122.75

7

Marcus Camby

112.34

8

Troy Murphy

110.31

9

Al Jefferson

97.91

10

Andris Biedrins

92.07

I've saved the best for last and boy does this one have a surprise on it. Firstly, we must discuss the tremendous year that both Yao Ming and Paul Gasol are having.

Ming is averaging 19.8 ppg, 1.8 blocks, and 9.6 rebounds with outstanding percentages (55% from the field and 87% from the line). The 87% free throw percentage represents the 15 best season ever by a center, over the past 30 years. For you history buffs, the best FT% over the course of an 82 game season was turned in by Mike Giminski in 1987; an amazing 93.8%. That same year, Jack Sikma made 321 out of 348 attempts for a 92.2% accuracy. Compare this 87% with the league average of 63.7% and you can quickly see how Ming can provide domination of that category. At the draft table, you usually try and grab Chauncey Billups or Ray Allen to make up for the lousy percentage your center will contribute. With Ming, you don't need to do that; which is a huge advantage. Gasol is also having an outstanding year with 18.5 ppg, 9.5 rpg, and .9 bpg and terrific percentages. However, Gasol also adds nice assist at the center position; handing out 3.6 assist per game. That's second only to Tim Ducan's 3.8 and 3 STDEV's over mean.

Ok, let's go to Mr. #2, Mehmet Okur. I will admit that I've never had Okur on any fantasy team, particularly because I'm biased. I like my centers to pull down double digit points and rebounds, at least 1.5 blocks per game, and shoot well over 50% from the field and at least 70% from the line – guys like Yao Ming, Al Jefferson, Pau Gasol, and Tim Duncan (I do recognize that Duncan is shooting slightly below 70% and Gasol is off on his shot blocking). But, Okur and Troy Murphy are leading the way for a brand new type of centers, and the Fantasy Basketball community needs to take notice. Okur and Murphy are trading blocks for three point shooting and steals.

Let's take a look: Okur is averaging 18.2 ppg, 8.1 rpg, and .7 blocks per game. By the way, the .7 blocks per game is only slightly off the league average for centers (.957). His percentages are outstanding: 50% from the field and 84% from the line, while averaging 5 attempts a game. But look at his three point shooting and steals: 1.3 three pointers a game and .8 steals. The league average for centers is .116 for 3's and .449 for steals - Okur is over 3 STDEV for 3 point shooting and 2 STDEV for steals. Troy Murphy is over 5 STDEV for 3 point shooting! Still not convinced???? If we eliminate Okur's three point prowess, he does drop in the ratings to number 9; just ahead of Al Jefferson. That's Al Jefferson, considered the best young center in the league.

I will admit that if you have Okur or Murphy on your team, you do need to get blocks from somewhere. However, that somewhere can be a PF or a shot blocking specialist like Chris Andersen or Ronny Turiaf. Also, having these two guys on your team allows you to not worry as much during the draft landing the big traditional center and focus on PG or PF and grab Okur and Murphy later.

For a complete list of my updated rankings, send me an email and I'll be glad to send it out. As always your feedback is welcome.