Late Pickups

As we wind down the Fantasy Basketball season, injuries are becoming a problem for our Fantasy teams. Below is a list of players that might prove valuable…

These players need to be on your team

I have a lot of love for Chris Andersen of Denver. He's averaging over 7 rebounds per game and an impressive 3.1 blocks per game over the past 30 days. That's tops in the league by over .5 blocks. Owned in only 7% of leagues, owners are looking at his 7 points per game and missing out on the goodness.

With Biendris down, Ronny Turiaf is a must pickup. He'll contribute 2-3 blocks per game and decent rebounding as well, although to-date, the rebounds have not been as plentiful as I would have anticipated.

Antonio McDyess is playing like he did when he first came into the league, averaging 13.3 ppg, 11.7 rpg, 51% from the field, and 95% from the line over the past 30 days. Why he's only owned in 38% of leagues is beyond me. I do believe McDyess can keep it up the rest of the season as his legs should be relatively fresh given his playing time early in the season.

There's not much going on in Sacramento-land, but Jason Thompson doesn't know it. Averaging 10.7 ppg, 8.1 rpg, and almost a block per game, Thompson will make a nice addition to your squad down the stretch.

I don't know the reason, but Jarrett Jack is putting up monster numbers: 19.8 ppg, 1.3 three pointers per game, 3.6 asg, while shooting 51% from the field and 85% from the line over the past 30 days. Why is he only owned in 36% of leagues????

With Devin Harris out, Keyon Dooling is the pickup, averaging 10.3 ppg and 5.8 asg over the past two weeks.

All the injuries in Washington are providing opportunities for Darius Songailia. Over the past two weeks, Songailia has averaged 11.1 ppg, 1.5 spg, while shooting 54% from the field and 93% from the line. If Caron Butler or dare we say it, Glibert Arenas ever play again this season, it will hurt Songailia's value, but I like the odds; get him into your lineups.

Thabo Sefolosha, a name that's hard to say, but he's shown the Oak City brain trust that he can play when Durant went out. Sefolosha has averaged 2.3 steals per game and 1.8 blocks per game over the past two weeks. Yes Durant is back, but something tells me that Sefolosha will continue to get minutes.

Kelenna Azubuike continues to excel in Golden State, but is only owned in 27% of leagues. Here's his line over the past two weeks: 15.4 ppg, 1.4 3PM, 5.7 rpg, shooting 50% from the field and 85% from the line. What's not to like???

Predictions coming true

Two months ago, I examined players on a per minute basis and compared them to their overall output and saw Fantasy gold surfacing. Well, for JR Smith and Brandon Wright, it's happening.

Over the past month, JR Smith has finally gotten his minutes and has rewarded his owners with 18 ppg, 2.3 three pointers, 3.9 rpg, and 3.1 apg, while shooting nice percentages. Owned in less than 50% of leagues, don't let JR slip by you.

Brandan Wright was hurt for two months with a shoulder injury, but he's back and getting playing time in Golden State. Since returning, Wright has averaged 10.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.5 bpg, and .8 spg and that's with only averaging 21 minutes per game. He's got a great pedigree from UNC and will be a player the rest of the season and an intriguing player for next year.

Pick up at your own risk

Three point specialist are the ultimate risk reward player. If they are shooting well, it's great, if not you've just killed your FG%. Three guys that are playing well over the past two weeks are Rasual Butler, Roger Mason, and Anthony Morrow.

Rasual Butler is averaging 2.0 three pointers and is the safest and most productive pick of the three.

Roger Mason is averaging 1.9 three pointers per game and is really streaky.

Anthony Morrow is really interesting. A pure jump shooter, he can go off at any time, but with Nellie at the helm, no telling what kind of playing time he'll get. Watch him carefully.

Digging deep

The remaining players should be considered for deep leagues only.

Ronald Murray – no idea what's happening here, but over the past two weeks, you have to like the line; 13.4 ppg, 1.1 spg, and 1.3 three pointers.

Renaldo Balkman – got a run when Kenyon Martin went down, but is now taking playing time from Chris Andersen. You can't ignore his double double over the past two weeks.

Steve Novak – It's dicey picking up Clippers, but Novak has hit 3.6 three pointers over the past two weeks.

Dominic McGuire – 5.5 rpg, 1.5 spg, and 0.9 bpg. Intriguing.

Nenad Kristic – He's the starting center for an NBA franchise and he's only owned in less than 3% of Fantasy clubs. I guess owners don't like the 6.5 rebounds per game and 1.1 blocks per game. 15 team leagues need to have Kristic on their team.

Analyzing Players through pure regression analysis

There are all types of methods to evaluate and compare basketball players in order to determine their relative value to a Fantasy team. One of the simplest and purest form is to group players by position and compare their output for each of the standard 8 fantasy categories. To accomplish, you need to understand two basic statistical principles:

Mean – The average value of a category when viewed over a number of players. For example: let's look at four player's rebound stats (4, 6, 7, 9). A simple calculation of 26/4 results in a 6.5 average.

Standard Deviation STDEV – The standard deviation measures the variability of the data set (in the above example – rebounds). Knowing this variability enables you to determine where the player ranks amongst his peers. Assuming normal distribution, which all the data we are exploring falls into, 68% of players will fall into 1 STDEV from the mean, 95% falls into 2 STDEV, and 99.7% falls into 3 STDEV. Therefore a player who contributes above 1 or better yet 2 STDEV from the mean in a category is providing clear domination and is exceptionally valuable.

Hopefully I haven't bored you to tears, but understanding the basic concepts will help you appreciate the underlying statistical reasons why players like Dwayne Wade are truly valuable. Yes, Wade scores lots of points, but his real value is blocks. Wade blocks 1.4 shots per game, which is 6 STDEV above the mean of .2 for shooting guards. For you math nerds, that puts Wade in the 99.9999998 percentile of players or basically, he stands alone. The next player in that category gets .4. Plus, Wade gets contribution in every category except for FT%, where he actually hurts you. Shooting guards provide the highest FT% of all groups at 81% efficiency. Wade shoots 77%, which is well within one STDEV, however, he attempts 9.4 shots per game and therefore his FT% does provide a drag on your overall percentage. He can't tank the category like Dwight Howard can, but he does hurt it. However, he more than makes up for it in all other categories and why he's ranks as the top SG in the league, by a wide margin.

Let's look at the top players around the league:

 

Point Guard

1	Chris Paul	240.28
2	Jason Kidd	158.31
3	Chauncey Billups	133.87
4	Jameer Nelson	93.69
5	Deron Williams	91.48
6	Devin Harris	85.25
7	Tony Parker	81.10
8	Mo Williams	68.66
9	Andre Miller	67.19
10	Mike Bibby	66.60
11	Nate Robinson	63.28
12	Derrick Rose	55.81
13	Jamal Crawford	52.15
14	Raymond Felton	50.35
15	Steve Nash	44.43
16	TJ Ford	34.92
17	Luke Ridnour	32.31
18	Chris Duhon	23.34
19	Kirk Hinrich	19.86
20	Rajon Rondo	16.55

Chris Paul continues to dominate point guards by being a six category contributor and only provides negative contribution in blocks and 3 point shooting, despite averaging nearly .8 per game in 3's. The problem is the average 3PM for the top 50 PG in the league is .973 per game with a standard deviation of .614. However, his total domination in steals and assist more than make up for his slightly less than average 3 point shooting. He's averaging 11 assist per game, which is 2.5 STDEV from the average among PG's in the league. Bottom line…Chris Paul is one of the three absolute Fantasy Studs playing the game today.

How are some of the young PG's doing in the league? Derrick Rose is having a great rookie campaign, led by outstanding shooting from the field. The average FG% for point guards is 43% with a total of 9.5 shots attempted per game. Rose is shooting 47% but is also taking almost 15 shots per game. From a fantasy perspective, this creates excellent FG% contribution from the PG position and can absolutely help a team. Why? You expect your PF and Centers to shoot well, but when you get high FG% contribution from a typical poor shooting position, it provides fantastic value.

Let's contrast Rose with Rajon Rondo. Rondo's a great player and an excellent source of assist, rebounds, and steals. However, even though he is shooting 50% on the year, he is only taking 9 shots per game, which is slightly below the league average for point guards. In essence, his FG% doesn't hurt your team, but it really doesn't help it all that much either. Rondo also doesn't provide much 3 point shooting or point contribution. He is scoring 11 ppg which is league average for PG's, but he's only making .3's per game, which is over one standard deviation from average. Finally, Rondo is not a very good free throw shooter, averaging 63.5% from the line while attempting 3.4 shoots. That 3.4 shots is .5 STDEV from average and is really negatively affecting his value. As Rondo grows and learns to shoot better, he will likely grow into a Jason Kidd type player, which as you can see from the list, is stillproviding tremendous value for his owners. By the way, Kidd's biggest component is his blocks per shot, which is at .6 per game. Compared to Dwight Howard, it's miniscule, however for a point guard, it's 3 STDEV from average.

 

 

Shooting Guard

1	Dwyane Wade	327.71
2	Kobe Bryant	264.95
3	Brandon Roy	158.92
4	Manu Ginobili	125.43
5	Jason Terry	123.63
6	Kevin Martin	109.73
7	Ben Gordon	100.24
8	Ray Allen	80.36
9	OJ Mayo	77.93
10	Eric Gordon	77.93

Kobe might be considered the NBA's clutch champion, Dwayne Wade however, is the best shooting guard in the league; and it's not even close. Kevin Martin is quietly have a nice year and ranks #5. This actually surprised me. His value is coming from two main areas: 3's and FT%. He's average 2.3 3's per game, which is 3 STDEV from mean. However, his FT% is over the top. He's shooting 86% from the line, but he's taking 9.7 shots per game or 3 STDEV from average. He's basically a category stud. Oh yeah, he's also scoring 20.3 points per game, which is 1.5 STDEV from mean. All good stuff. OJ Mayo is the top rookie and what I like about Mayo is his consistency. Besides blocks, which only Wade contributes in the SG group, Mayo provides positive contribution in each category. Mayo is only going to get better and should be one of the top 5 shooting guards taken next year.

 

Forwards

1	LeBron James	225.88
2	Kevin Durant	205.78
3	Danny Granger	196.26
4	Amare Stoudemire	176.83
5	Dirk Nowitzki	170.25
6	Chris Bosh	138.87
7	David West	125.11
8	Kevin Garnett	118.40
9	Caron Butler	110.89
10	Gerald Wallace	110.41

No surprise here – Lebron is the King. What might be surprising is who's in #2 – Kevin Durant. Yes, Durant is eligible in most leagues at both SG and SF, but who are we kidding, he's 6'10'' – he's forward. Durant is having his breakout year with a stat line somewhat, stress the somewhat, comparable to Lebron (1.4 to 1.5 3PM's, 6.6 rebounds to 7.3, 1.3 to 1.7 steals, .8 to 1.2 blocks, and 26 to 28.3 points). It breaks down in assist where Lebron cleans up at 7.1 vs. 3.0. However, Durant's sneaky value over Lebron comes from his free throw percentage. Durant is shooting 86% to Lebron's 77%, both are over the Forward average of 76%, but Durant's 7.1 attempts per game is the accelerator, which is 2.5 STDEV above mean. Folks, Durant is here to stay and is likely a first round draft pick next year.

Danny Granger is also having an excellent season this year and ranks #3. The only blemish on his resume is a below average FG% (43.4 vs. a Forward average of 46.2). However, look at his blocks per game average of 1.5. That's 3 STDEV above mean for forwards. That's even 1 STDEV above mean for centers. Granger is one of the most valuable shoot blockers in the league and it's one of the reasons for his dramatically increased value. If your all about points, Granger also gets you 25 points per game. With Durant, I think Granger moves into the first round next year.

 

Centers

1	Yao Ming	180.52
2	Mehmet Okur	142.96
3	Pau Gasol	138.68
4	Dwight Howard	133.43
5	Tim Duncan	124.11
6	Nene	122.75
7	Marcus Camby	112.34
8	Troy Murphy	110.31
9	Al Jefferson	97.91
10	Andris Biedrins	92.07

I've saved the best for last and boy does this one have a surprise on it. Firstly, we must discuss the tremendous year that both Yao Ming and Paul Gasol are having.

Ming is averaging 19.8 ppg, 1.8 blocks, and 9.6 rebounds with outstanding percentages (55% from the field and 87% from the line). The 87% free throw percentage represents the 15 best season ever by a center, over the past 30 years. For you history buffs, the best FT% over the course of an 82 game season was turned in by Mike Giminski in 1987; an amazing 93.8%. That same year, Jack Sikma made 321 out of 348 attempts for a 92.2% accuracy. Compare this 87% with the league average of 63.7% and you can quickly see how Ming can provide domination of that category. At the draft table, you usually try and grab Chauncey Billups or Ray Allen to make up for the lousy percentage your center will contribute. With Ming, you don't need to do that; which is a huge advantage. Gasol is also having an outstanding year with 18.5 ppg, 9.5 rpg, and .9 bpg and terrific percentages. However, Gasol also adds nice assist at the center position; handing out 3.6 assist per game. That's second only to Tim Ducan's 3.8 and 3 STDEV's over mean.

Ok, let's go to Mr. #2, Mehmet Okur. I will admit that I've never had Okur on any fantasy team, particularly because I'm biased. I like my centers to pull down double digit points and rebounds, at least 1.5 blocks per game, and shoot well over 50% from the field and at least 70% from the line – guys like Yao Ming, Al Jefferson, Pau Gasol, and Tim Duncan (I do recognize that Duncan is shooting slightly below 70% and Gasol is off on his shot blocking). But, Okur and Troy Murphy are leading the way for a brand new type of centers, and the Fantasy Basketball community needs to take notice. Okur and Murphy are trading blocks for three point shooting and steals.

Let's take a look: Okur is averaging 18.2 ppg, 8.1 rpg, and .7 blocks per game. By the way, the .7 blocks per game is only slightly off the league average for centers (.957). His percentages are outstanding: 50% from the field and 84% from the line, while averaging 5 attempts a game. But look at his three point shooting and steals: 1.3 three pointers a game and .8 steals. The league average for centers is .116 for 3's and .449 for steals - Okur is over 3 STDEV for 3 point shooting and 2 STDEV for steals. Troy Murphy is over 5 STDEV for 3 point shooting! Still not convinced???? If we eliminate Okur's three point prowess, he does drop in the ratings to number 9; just ahead of Al Jefferson. That's Al Jefferson, considered the best young center in the league.

I will admit that if you have Okur or Murphy on your team, you do need to get blocks from somewhere. However, that somewhere can be a PF or a shot blocking specialist like Chris Andersen or Ronny Turiaf. Also, having these two guys on your team allows you to not worry as much during the draft landing the big traditional center and focus on PG or PF and grab Okur and Murphy later.

For a complete list of my updated rankings, send me an email and I'll be glad to send it out. As always your feedback is welcome.

And down the stretch they come…

I've been playing Fantasy Basketball for many years and I've never seen a season so riddled with injuries. Stoudemire, Jefferson, Brand, Bogut, Redd, McGrady, are just a few of the players who have disappeared from our teams. However, if that's happened to you, stop you whining and do something. With 75% of the season in the rear view mirror, it's time to analyze your league, pick a strategy for moving up in a category, and work it. I also find that many owners are distracted during this time of the year preparing for Baseball drafts. Take advantage of those people sleeping at the wheel and make some moves.

This blog will primarily focus on roto leagues, but if you're interested in strategies for head-to-head leagues, read my previous posting on taking advantage of the playoff schedule.

This late in the season, if you're trying to move up in all categories, you're not going to make it. In fact, you'll probably go crazy by spending countless unproductive hours looking at the waiver wire. You've got to focus! Here's some tips:

Tip #1: Analyzing categories

Analyze the categories and determine the distance between you and the next two to three teams in each category. I like to use 5% as a rule of thumb for determining whether I can catch a team. Let's use an example to illustrate the point:

• You have 3300 rebounds for a grand total of 3 points in the category.
  
• The team directly ahead of you has 3350 rebounds [1.5% more than you], the team two ahead of you 3375 [2.2%], three ahead 3420 [3.6%], and four ahead, 3540 [7.2%].
  
• In the above example, you should target a move of three points, or catch the team with 3420. Anything beyond that is probably not realistic. Why??? Here's the logic…the average number of games left are approximately 25. You can probably pick up a player on the waiver wire that can give you 7-9 rebounds a game, but he will probably replace a player that's getting 2-3; assuming you replace a PG/SG with a PF, that will give you an increase of 6-7 rebounds per game. Simple math: 6.5 times 25 games gives you 162 rebounds or roughly 5% - give or take.
  

The 5% rule is not an exact science as you can gain more quickly in the scarce categories [blocks, steals, and 3's] by selecting a specialist. How so? See Tip #3.

Tip #2: Lebron James does not exist on the Waiver Wire

Recognize that this late in the season, players don't exist on the waiver wire that can fill up more than three categories. Therefore, pick the categories to focus on and pick the appropriate player. Compartmentalize your players as one of following:

• PF's/C that give you rebounds, blocks, and good FG%. If after doing your analysis from Tip #1, you decide that chasing rebounds will be the strategy, look also at what you can do with blocks and FG% as it's likely that these other two categories will increase as well. DO NOT pick a big guy that hurts your FG%.
  
• PG's that give you assist, steals, and good FT%. Players on the waiver wire that give you both steals and assist together are hard to find this late in the season, but if you do, that's the player you want.
  
• SG/SF that give you 3's, points, and good FT%. If you decide to chase 3's, make sure your ready for a bumpy ride as a three point specialist is the most inconsistent player in the league.
  

Tip #3: Focus on category scarcity

If you're completely lost as to what to do, focus on the three scarce categories: blocks, steals, and 3 point shots.

• Blocks. The Block shot is way down this year [see previous blog post] and a smart player can move up quickly in a category by adding a shot blocking specialist like Chris Andersen or Ronny Turiaf. Look at the math: Chris Andersen is blocking 2.2 shots a game, and will ignore for the moment the last 2 weeks where he's blocked 3.6 per game, which is over a block more than Dwight Howard in that same timeframe. Multiple 2.2 times 25 and you get 55 blocks. Assuming that you replace a PG getting virtual no blocks, this could easily represent a 15% increase for the rest of the season.
  
• 3 Point Shots. There are many 3 point specialist in the league that are sitting on waiver wires. Roger Mason, Eddie House, Dequan Cook, and J.R. Smith come to mind as excellent sources. While the logic is similar, 3 point shooting is not as scarce as block so the benefit of adding a 3 point specialist is not as great.
  
• Steals. The final and most plentiful of the scarce category is steals. In general, I like to combine steals with assist to focus on two categories. However, when you can find a player with high steals and rebounds or better yet, blocks, you've found gold. Recently, somebody dropped Kenyon Martin in a 12 team league and fortunately I was able to claim him off waivers. A few weeks ago, I decided to chase rebounds and blocks in this league and have been making headway. However, I had three other teams within 2% of my total in steals. Picking up Martin gave me not only blocks and rebounds, but 1.6 steals per game. What I find strange is that few people recognize this because they see 12.5 ppg and go ho-hum. The gold is found in the scarce categories. Other players you might find on the waiver wire that provide great steals and block contribution are: Shane Battier, Marc Gasol, Wilson Chandler [although, I'm not a big fan], and Travis Outlaw.
  

Tip #4: Don't chase points

I say it, I preach it, but nobody ever listens – but it's so true! I win leagues every year by blowing out the scarce categories, keeping my percentages high, and finishing in the middle of the pack in points. That's not the macho way to do it, but it's the easiest way to win. What's the logic? On the waiver wire, you might find a player that will get you 15 points a game, but it's more likely you'll find a player getting 12-13 points and replace a player getting 9 points. Simple math: 25 games left, times 4 points per game, gives you 100 points. The problem is teams are averaging 9,000 to 10,000 total points and that extra 100 points will only move the needle 1%. Not a lot of value. Instead, the goal that you should employ going down the stretch is to maintain your standing in points, but don't chase them. If you must chase points, just know that it's unlikely you'll catch a team that's more than 2% ahead.

Tip #5: Respect your percentages

In a standard 8 category rotisserie league, your percentages (FG% and FT%) account for 25%. They can't be ignored! However, this late in the season, it's hard to catch a team ahead of you, but the math can quickly work against you if you add the wrong player. People are jumping on Rafer Alston since joining Orlando. While he'll get you assist, he's a terrible shooter and unfortunately, he likes to shoot. It's conceivable that adding a 40% shooter from the field can drop you .050 (example: .4650 to .4600), assuming they like to shoot. Obviously the reverse is true; except you need to add a .520 shooter to do the opposite. There is another piece to the percentage puzzle; and that's the amount a player shoots. The average player takes 11.1 shots per game from the field and 3.5 free throw attempts per game. Adding a player that shoots 40% per game and averages 5 shots per game is much different than adding a player who shoots 12 times a game. Fortunately, if they are that bad, they usually don't have a job, but some do exist of the waiver wire: Lou Williams 39% with 10.6 spg, JR Smith 43% with 11.1 spg, Daequan Cook with 38.5% and 9.2 spg. Be careful with these players as the downside risk on your percentages might not outweigh the benefit.

 

As always, give me your feedback and good luck!