The Next Big Prospect?

A young 19 year old right-handed pitcher with an identity crisis has caused quite a stir in spring training this year for the St. Louis Cardinals. The player - Carlos Martinez or is it Carlos Matias?

Carlos Martinez has a story that few of us in the US can appreicate. He was original signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Red Sox as Carlos Matias. However, his contract was voided when his visa application failed due to the discrepancy of his last name. Martinez’s mother died when he was young and he was raised by his uncle who gave him his surname, Matias. Well, the Dominican government called foul and rejected his visa until he had his name legally changed to his mother’s name of Martinez.

The Red Sox loss was the Cardinals gain as they signed him last year to an impressive $1.5 million signing bonus – a hefty amount for a teenager who doesn’t turn 20 until this September. Standing only 6 feet tall and a 160 pounds, Martinez has an electric arm with his fastball sitting in the mid 90’s but hitting 98-99. During a first look in Jupiter Florida earlier this spring, the Cardinals brass were effusive in their praise. Prior to that, all we had seen were fuzzy video tapes and oh yeah, a 78K/14BB performance over 59 innings in the Dominican Summer league last year.

Am I worried about the durability of a slight 6 foot pitcher? Sure! Today, major league teams are looking for tall projectable 6’ 4” 220 pound guys that have that great downward plane. Thank you Randy Johnson! It’s my one worry about young Manny Bannuels, the Yankees young prospect that is another player causing a stir in Spring Training. He’s 5’ 11” and 155 pounds.

As with all young pitchers, Martinez’s secondary pitches will have to be taught and refined by the Cardinals. Over the past several years, the Cardinals have had a lot of success in grooming young pitchers with a lot of upside. See Adam Wainwright, who really excelled once he was traded from the Braves in 2003 and more recently, the young Shelby Miller.

While we don’t expect Martinez to hit the major leagues anytime soon, guys that can throw in the upper 90’s don’t grow on trees and therefore is a pitcher that fantasy owners in dynasty leagues and deep keeper leagues need to follow this season.

Third base minor league prospects that may help in 2011

Every year, we look for prospects that may help our fantasy teams throughout the year. This year, there are a number of players that may be able to help us at what is becoming a scarce position - third base.

Matt Dominquez (Fla) - The strong and athletic 21-year old is listed as the #1 organizational prospect in the Marlins organization. The scouts love his glove but have always worried whether he'll be able to hit enough in the majors.

First the glove...it's exceptional and already major league ready. Many scouts rank his fielding and throwing ability at 70+. The glove alone should be able to help a sub-optimal Marlins infield that has been seeking fielding help for years.

What about the hitting? The contact rate was very good at 81% and his bb% was also excellent at 10%, but the worry is the power. Last year in AA Jacksonville, Dominquez slugged 14 home runs in 504 AB's. At a power position like third base, that could provide a problem for the Marlins. While AA is a long way from the majors, 14 home runs would have ranked 23rd for Major League third baseman.

Expect Dominquez to make an impact for the Marlins during the 2011 season with 300 AB's and 7-10 home runs with a .270 average. Looking out to 2014, I would not be surprised if we see Dominquez develop more pop and hit 18-20 home runs with a .280 average and multiple gold glove awards. For fantasy players, don't completely dismiss the fielding as this will keep Dominquez in lineups.

Mike Moustakas (KC) - I had a chance to see the much talked about Moustakas in both the Arizona Fall League and in several spring training games. Let me say that I was shocked by his size. He looks more like a junior college nose tackle as opposed to one of the most promising minor league prospects. While he's listed at 5-11 and 230, he looks shorter and heavier than those stats. Does it matter? If the bat speed is there, not as much.

Moustakas led the minor leagues in home runs with 36 in 2010 with a great contact rate of 86%. The majority of the home runs did come at the coozy confines of NW Arkansas and the hitter friendly Midwest league. That said, his power should translate into 20-25 home runs in the majors, although the pitcher friendly Kauffman stadium in Kansas City will be a concern as it suppresses home runs for left-handed hitters by 28% .

A larger concern will be his batting average. While you've got to love the contact rate, the walk rate was 3% in 225 AB's in AAA, which if not corrected, will keep his batting average in the .260 to .270 range.

Moustakas will start the season in the minors but should be a late May call-up after his Super Two eligibility is covered. I believe he'll challenge for Rookie of the year honors but fall short as the power will not be there. Long-term, I see Moustakas as a solid regular third baseman but not an all-star.

Lonnie Chisenhall (Cle) - Another 3B listed as the #1 organizational prospect by Baseball America, Chisenhall brings a very nice lefty swing that generated an 84% contact rate and a 9% walk rate in AA Akron last year. He has slightly more power than Dominquez, raking for 17 home runs last year and once fully developed, projects 20-25 home run power. From a glove standpoint, Chisenhall is adequate but not great. However, it should be good enough to remain at 3B for many years to come.

Expect Chisenhall to start the year in AAA but make his way up to big club by mid-season. A definite play for AL Only leagues but only as a pickup in deep mixed leagues (15+ teams). By 2014, expect Chisenhall to be a solid 3B contributor, maybe even a top 10 fantasy 3B, but just short of all-star caliber.

Brett Lawrie (Tor) - Arguably, the most talented of the foursome is Canadian, and former 2009 first round pick for the Brewers, Brett Lawrie (pronounced Low-ry). Lawrie has 20+/20+ potential with the only thing lacking - a position to play.

Drafted as a catcher/2B, he was moved to 3B by Toronto after the trade, straight up, for Shaun Marcum. He's had a nice spring, batting .357 with two home runs and two steals in a limit sample size of 28 AB's.

Last year, as a 20 year-old in AA Huntsville, he batted .280 with 8 home runs and 30 stolen bases. While the power is yet to completely develop, eight home runs at age 20 against AA pitching is encouraging. His contact rate was 80% with a 8% walk rate, fully supporting his .280 batting average with some upside.

There have been rumblings about Lawrie's maturity. His Facebook page was covered with what some called racy, I call them goofy pictures of his 6 pack and his hot girlfriend. While you never dismiss anything about a young man's character, I've yet to see anything overly concerning about Lawrie's character except that of a 20-year old doing 20-year old stuff.

Expect to see Lawrie up for a cup of coffee in 2011 and possibly earlier if he continues to rake; which is a real possibility. Long-term, Lawrie could develop into a David Wright all-star performer at 3B with 20+/20+ potential and a nice batting average.

How I rank them...

For 2011,
1) Moustakas
2) Dominquez
3) Chisenhall
4) Lawrie

Long-term (2014),
1) Lawrie
2) Chisenhall
3) Moustakas
4) Dominquez

Should we be worried about Jake Peavy

There's a lot of "I told you so experts" smiling from ear to ear as they predicted a down year for the 28 year old right hander Jake Peavy. That said, nobody could have envisioned the absolutely dreadful start that Peavy has had to the start the 2010 season – a 7.66 ERA and 1.84 WHIP after four starts. Could it be this bad? I mean, we're talking a Cy Young winner and one of the most dominating pitchers this decade. Let's take a look…

To start, Peavy's underlying stats are supporting the bad start. He's averaging a 6.0 K/9 rate and an almost unbelievable 6.0 BB/9 rate. His Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) is .320, which is near league average. His home run rate is also not out of line at 1.2 per nine. The only underlying stat that shows a bit of bad luck is his 58% strand rate. If you add it all up, Peavy's expected ERA (xERA) is 6.05, which is better than his ERA, but not by a lot.

Secondly, if we dig deeper into the stats, we see some disturbing trends in Peavy's velocity and movement of his pitches. In 2007, Peavy's fastball was averaging 93.9 MPH with a movement of 8.0 inches. In 2010, his velocity averaged 90.6 with movement of 6.5 inches. A drop of this magnitude is clearly concerning and could either mean mechanical problems, an injury, or the innings that Peavy's magical right arm has accumulated have caught up to him. While I'm not a pitching coach or a doctor, his eroding velocity and movement is not sudden and has been occurring little by little each year. That points more to an older arm than an injury or a temporary mechanical pitching problem.

Finally, the external factors of competition and ball park factors need to explored. First, three of Peavy's first four games were against, Cleveland (twice) and Toronto. While his fourth game was against a very good Tampa Bay offense, overall, you'd have to say that Peavy has faced fairly easy competitors. In looking at weather and ball park factors, two of his first four starts were in Chicago where the average temperature was 44.5 degrees. The third game was in Cleveland where the game time temperature was 44 while the fourth game was indoors in Toronto. The bottom line is that Peavy has pitched in pitcher-friendly weather and has still pitched poorly. It's scary to think what will happen when the wind switches in the summer in the band box of U.S. Cellular Field.

In looking for positives in the first four starts for Jake Peavy, I've not found any. His underlying stats are bad, his velocity is down, and he's pitched in pitcher-friendly weather. Am I worried, absolutely! Will things get better? Time will tell, but Peavy is getting to a point in his career that he's going to need to change how pitches. He can't blow batters away with that mid 90's fastball anymore. As his velocity has diminished, the separation between his off speed pitches and his fastball is getting smaller and that also spells trouble.

At this point, fantasy owners must bench Jake Peavy and hope that things can change. Unfortunately, Jake Peavy has got to change and that's going to be a lot harder than waiting for his luck to improve or the doormats of the league to come to town. Can he change? Time will tell.