Looking for Value in the Draft

The key to looking for value in a Fantasy Baseball draft is to find players that have a low ADP but have peripheral statistics that would suggest the player will out-perform his draft position and therefore bring value.

During drafting season, I'll look at undervalued players relative their draft position and after the season starts, I'll look at players who are either over performing their peripheral statistics or under- performing.

Justin Masterson (361)

Once a prized prospect with the Boston Red Sox, Justin Masterson finds himself with a new zip code and an opportunity to break into the starting rotation for the Indians. However, with an ADP of 361, he's barely being drafted in a 12-team league.

Masterson has the combination of what you look for in a pitcher - an extreme ground ball rate but also a high strikeout rate. Over the past two years, his ground ball rate has been 54% while his strikeout rate per nine (K/9) last year was 8.3. The problem has been his walk rate; walking 4.2 batters per nine innings last year. However, at age 25, Masterson is still very young and control many times is the last thing to develop. Finally, Masterson's Batting Average on Ball in Play (BABIP) was 32% last year, meaning he was somewhat unlucky.

As a late round flyer, Masterson has the perfect profile for a player who will return a nice profit - great underlying stats and opportunity.

Kelly Johnson (275)

Just two year ago, Kelly Johnson was establishing himself as the starting second baseman for the Atlanta Braves. However, a difficult hitting year last season in combination with a breakout season for Martin Prado, and Johnson finds himself in Phoenix looking to get his career back on track.

What happened? The biggest offender was Johnson's BABIP, which was 25% last year in comparison to an average of 33% the previous three years. This helped depress his average from a more Johnson like .275 to .280 to a dreadful .230 last year. What's interesting is his contact rate improved to 83%.

Johnson is never going to be a power hitter, but with a flyball of 43% and a hr/f rate that should improve as he moves to Arizona, 15-18 home runs is not out of the question. Turner Field is not kind to left handers as it suppresses home runs by 6% while Chase Field proves a 15% advantage.

Corey Hart (180)

In 2007, Corey Hart had his breakout batting .295 with 24 home runs and 23 stolen bases. The Brewers as well as Fantasy Baseball owners believed that Hart would grow into the next 25/25 or even 30/30 player. That has not happened as Hart has been sliding ever since, landing with a thud last year with 12 homers, 11 stolen bases, and batting .260.

Part of his problem last year were injuries (bruised foot and an emergency appendectomy) that limited Hart to only 419 AB's. However, even with the injuries, Hart managed a decent 78% contact rate with a walk rate of 9%. The power loss was due to a 9% home run to fly ball ratio (hr/f), but an even more anemic 6% hr/f during the second half. This is down from 13% during his breakout year. Clearly, the injuries were taking a toll.

While Corey Hart's hitting mechanics might not dictate a 30/30 player, he still owns the skills for a 20/20 player with a .275 average. At an ADP of 180, there is clear value in picking up Hart in the 14^th or 15^th round.

Adam LaRoche (179)

Adam LaRoche never receives any love at the draft table. Everyone knows about his slow starts, but in the end, isn't all about the final numbers – particularly in a roto-league.

Very few players provide the consistent production that LaRoche delivers. Over the past four years, his contact rate has averaged 74%-77% and his walk rate has averaged 10% every year. Over the past two years, he's hit 25 home runs and drove in 87 and 85 runs. All that said, he does move to Arizona where home runs for left handers increased by 15% as opposed to Atlanta where home runs for left handers is reduced by 6%

Ignoring the park factors, there doesn't appear to be any statistical upside, so you'll to settle on 25 home runs, 85 RBI, 75 Runs, and a .275 average. I don't know about you, but I'll take that production, with low-risk, in a heartbeat in the 14^th or 15^th round as my corner infielder or even my first baseman. In fact, in a 15-team mixed draft, you might even consider focusing on other positions in the first ten rounds and then pickup LaRoche.

Aaron Harang (246)

The call players like Aaron Harang innings eaters because they appear to have rubber arms that can pitch 200+ innings year over year – until they burn out.

In Harang's best year of 2007, he went 16-6 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. That year, his K/9 was 8.5 and his BB/9 was 2.0. In 2009, Harang's underlying strikeout and walk rates were similar as he posted a K/9 of 7.9 and a BB/9 of 2.4, however, his record did not fare nearly as well. Look no further than a BABIP of 34% and a hr/f rate 12% and you have your answer.

The bottom line is that Aaron Harang still has the skills of an elite pitcher, but he's run into a string of bad luck over the past two years. You also can't completely discount the wear and tear on his arm and the work load that Dusty Baker might ask, but the skills are there and as an end game selection, he's a player that will be on a lot of my teams.

 

The calculus of owning Allen Iverson

In every fantasy season, whether it's Fantasy Basketball, Football, Baseball, or even Darts, there usually comes a time in the season where you've got to take a calculated gamble. It can make the difference between being in the money or staring up at the leaders the rest of the season.

This year in Fantasy Basketball, that time is now.

There is increasing speculation that Allen Iverson is going to join the Knicks by the end of the week. In fact, some newspapers are reporting that AI will join the team by Friday and play against the Nets on Saturday. Is it certain? Nobody knows, but there are a number of reasons that the Knicks would like this to happen.

1. The Knicks are terrible. I got a chance to see them play against the Warriors last Friday and it was atrocious. They have some decent complementary players like David Lee and Al Harrington, but they don't have a player that can break down the defense and score. Additionally, Chris Duhon can not make a shot. Over the last five games, he's averaging 2.8 points per game (PPG) on 3 of 30 shooting. Talk about a slump! Iverson can provide the scoring and floor leadership they need. Yes, he'll dominate the ball, but they need that at the moment as the "looks" that the current players are getting at the basket are not good.
   
2. There were empty seats in the Garden. I've gone to a number of games over the years in the Garden and I've seen empty seats, but usually in February and March – not the middle on November. There's no buzz in New York about the Knicks and they've become a laughing stock. Yes people are buying into the 2010 summer free agent year logic, but the loss of revenue at the Garden is hurting. Allen Iverson can provide the draw that will put people into seats; at least temporarily.
   
3. What's the downside for the Knicks? They are not making the playoffs and they are not going to make any move that will jeopardize their chances to land one or two elite free agents next year. Allen Iverson will be signed as a mid-level exception or a veteran league minimum, which both by definition will be expiring contracts.
   

If you buy the above logic, then the big question is should you take a flyer on Iverson even if there's a chance he doesn't join the Knicks? I think the answer is yes. Iverson will thrive in the D'Antoni run and gun style. In fact, it's perfect for him. His game is to take defenders off the dribble, penetrate, shoot or kick the ball out. That's the D'Antoni system!

Also, what's the downside risk? Players on the end of your bench are by definition average. The typical end of your bench player will provide the following fantasy per game contribution: 9.2 points, 4.1 boards, 1.9 assists, 0.5 steals and blocks, and shoot 45% from the field and 73% from the line. The likelihood of Iverson out performing this stat line is extremely high. If Iverson is not picked up by the Knicks, then you pick up another average player.

I've taken the plunge this afternoon and put Iverson on every team where he was available. Time for you to do the same!

My Fantasy Basketball Team Stinks

We are now two weeks into the NBA season and some owners are smiling from ear-to-ear as they knew Chris Kaman would come back strong, Brandon Jennings would be this year's Devin Harris, or Channing Frye would develop a three point shot and become a seven-foot Peja Stojakovic. For the rest of us who are still blind squirrels who haven't found the proverbial nut, there is panic. Yes of course if you have Lebron James or Chris Paul, you're fine. However, if you've drafted Danny Granger or Kevin Durant in the first round or thought Shaq was going to turn the clock back ten years, you're feeling uneasy.

While the season is still very young and it's dangerous to draw too many conclusions after just two weeks, there are clearly buying and selling opportunities that need to explored. A shred owner can read these early tea-leaves and make deals that can win their leagues.

Under Performing First Rounders

Al Jefferson

Both the Timberwolves and fantasy owners alike expected Al Jefferson to get off to a slow start this year following mid-season knee surgery, but after the first six games …YUCK! His scoring is down 6.0 Points Per Game (PPG), he's shooting 40%, down from a career average of 50.3% and most discouraging, he's averaging only 6.0 Rebounds Per Game (RPG).

He's playing extremely tentatively, afraid to challenge players as is evidence with his 0.8 Blocks Per Game (BPG). He also seems content to take the 8-foot shot as opposed to driving to the hoop. He looks a lot like, dare I say, Elton Brand.

Rest assured, at 26, Al Jefferson is just entering his peak years and will return to the player we thought we drafted late in the first round. Unfortunately, it's going to take longer and we might not see the real "Big Al" until after the new year.

Outlook: Hold tight, play favorable match-ups until he turns the corner, and look to trade for him with owners who are loosing patience.

Danny Granger

One of the top six player drafted this year, Danny Granger has not returned first round value…yet. Owners expected across the board contribution in all categories including at least 26.0 PPG with good field goal percentages. After five games, Granger has shot a dismal 38% from the field while only scoring 22.8 PPG; which ranks 15^th in the league; wedged between Ben Gordon and Chris Kaman.

Digging deeper into the stats, Granger has attempted an almost unbelievable 10.2 three-pointer per game. Fortunately for owners, he's connected on 30% of them so his three point contribution is high, but clearly he's not driving to the rim. The reason is probably the heel injury he suffered late in the pre-season. Hopefully this injury is truly a bone bruise and not masking as the more troubling plantar fascia tendinitis.

Assuming Granger can regain his health, and that's always a concern with Granger, he should be able to provide top five value to your team. His other stats are completely in-line with pre-season projections, if not better.

Outlook: Hold or try and buy from a worried owner

Kevin Durant

The budding NBA star, Kevin Durant has gotten off to a good, but not great start to the season. The problem is field-goal percentage – currently at 38.5%. That low percentage really hurts your team's field-goal category when you combine the low percentage with 21.8 shots attempted per game; which is fourth in the league. Every other category is in-line with pre-season projections.

Outlook: There's too much talent here to panic just yet. Sit tight.

Top-tier Players Under Performing

Elton Brand

Elton Brand is no longer a top-tier Basketball Player. There, I said it! Let's face it, he'll turn 31 in March and has had three major surgeries in the past two years. It's gotten so bad for Brand owners that he's being out-played by Mareese Speights, an unheralded second round draft pick in his second year.

How bad has Brand been over the first five games? He's averaging 11.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG, and 0.8 BPG. His field goal percentage is actually good; he's just not getting the touches (8.8 shots per game vs. 12.6 last year, and 15.0-18.0 during his peak years) and a career low 28.6 minutes per game. The basic problem is that Philadelphia plays a perimeter game with Andre Iguodala's and Lou Williams controlling the ball. They are not looking to push the ball inside and until they do, Elton Brand will be an average Fantasy contributor.

Outlook: Trade him if you can, but it'll be hard as most owners are onto him. Consider benching him until things change in Philadelphia.

Tim Duncan

A model of consistency for years, we might finally be seeing the inevitable production slide of Tim Duncan. The primary cause of that slide is minutes as Duncan is averaging a career low 29.1 minutes per game. Astute fantasy owners saw this playing time reduction occur during the last two months of last season and avoided paying a second round draft pick on Duncan.

The shame of it all is on a per minute basis, Tim Duncan's contribution is as good as ever. Extrapolating his number to 36 minutes of playing time, he's averaging 18.1 PPG, 14.6 RPG, and 2.0 BPG. What is disappointing is his free throw percentage; currently at a career low 56.5%. He looks the same at the charity stripe; taking his typical long deep breath and exaggerated mechanics, he's just missing. Expect his free throw percentage to normalize at 65%-70% as we go through the year.

Outlook: Expect fifth round value and hope for third or fourth round value. If you can trade on his name and upgrade, do it.

Jose Calderon

Remember last year when Jose Calderon went 87 straight attempts without missing a free-throw? This year, he missed two free throw attempts in the first game. A career 50% shooter from the field, over the first five games, Calderon is shooting 42% and an unbelievable low 73% from the line. However, if that wasn't bad enough, the most discouraging statistic is Calderon's measly 5.8 Assists Per Game (APG). Last year he averaged 8.9 APG and the previous year, 8.3 APG.

It's not playing time as Calderon is averaging a healthy 32.2 minutes per game, so what is it? Toronto has gotten away from the motion offense made popular under Sam Mitchell and is playing more isolation schemes. Chris Bosh is thriving, but Calderon is struggling. For Calderon owner's sake, let's hope he can adjust.

Outlook: Hold tight for a few more weeks and if things haven't improved, try selling on his name.

Caron Butler

Gilbert Arenas looks great and has become entrenched as the general, captain, and sergeant in Washington. That doesn't leave a lot of plum roles for the others, and players like Caron Butler are suffering. You don't have to look any further than rebounds and assists – rebounding is up by 2.0 RPG from last year while his assists are down from 4.3 APG to .6 APG. Excellent contribution in steals, which is one of the biggest reasons that you draft Butler in the second or third round are off 1.0 per game. Finally, Butler is shooting under 40% from the field including 23% from behind the arc.

It's clear that Butler's role as a point-forward is over and he'll have to learn how to play off Arenas. Adding to the concern for owners is the eventual return of Antwan Jamison. That combination spells trouble for Butler owners.

Outlook: Sell before it's too late

John Salmons

A career 36% three-point shooter, after five games, John Salmons is shooting 19% from behind the arc. He's not doing much better from inside the arc as well as his overall field-goal percentage is below 30% and he's launching shots at a career best 14.2. Put it all together and you've got one ugly stat line of 11.2 PPG and 1.0 three-pointers a game from a player who was suppose to provide your team 17.0-19.0 PPG.

Much of Salmons slow start can be attributed to facing four of the best defenses in the NBA in his first five games (San Antonio, Boston, Cleveland, and Miami). All four teams are in the top 10 for defending the three-point shot. Some owners have already given up on him and he's wound up on waiver wires in 10 team leagues. Salmons is a pickup and someone to trade for while this buying opportunity exists.

Outlook: Buy Low

We Expected More

Manu Ginobili

The NBA's resident bat catcher is making the highlight reels, but as a "Ripley's Believe it or Not" act and not a premier NBA player.

Another player who is coming back slowly from surgery, Ginobili looks quick on the court, but his shot is not there yet. A career 45% shooter, he's currently averaging 39% from the field and 79% from the charity strip. Furthermore, his steals are down and he has yet to block a shot; both of which should normalize once the rust wears off. San Antonio is getting old and Ginobili is no exception. However, over the years, he has taken less of a pounding than Tony Parker or Tim Duncan and therefore he should have more left in the tank.

Outlook: Don't loose faith, Ginobili is poised for a nice year.

Anthony Randolph

Anthony Randolph was the worst kept sleeper during this year's fantasy draft season. Everybody had heard about him tearing up the summer leagues and therefore, Randolph went in the seventh and eighth round instead of a flyer in the last two rounds. So far, it hasn't panned out for owners as Randolph has averaged 9.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 34.5% shooting from the field while averaging a paltry 17.8 minutes per game.

A once Mecca for fantasy goodness, Golden State has become a nightmare for fantasy owners. The rotations are inconsistent and Don Nelson seems to prefer match-up lineups as opposed to sticking with a single starting line-up for each game. You are seeing the results play out with young Anthony Randolph. He has the talent, he just needs the opportunity.

Outlook: Too much uncertainty in Golden State. Sell on the name.

Shaq

 

Nobody expected a repeated of last year, but clearly the Cavs as well as fantasy owners expected more than the production to-date. Few plays are being called for Shaq in the Lebron James dominated offense, so don't expected his points to return and with another option in Zydrunas Ilgauskas, continue to see Shaq's minutes average around 25.0-26.0.

Outlook: Only rosterable in deep leagues.

Derrick Rose

A pre-season ankle Injury has hampered the progression of Derrick Rose into the elite scoring point guard that many predicted. Rose's game is all about slashing to the rim and when your ankle is weak and you don't have the confidence to make the quick cut, production is going to fall. Throw in a reduction in minutes and it's pretty obvious to see why his overall play is off - 12.2 PPG while shooting 40% from the field versus 16.8 PPG and 47.5% from the field last year. The encouraging news is that his assists per minute is showing growth over last year.

Patience is a virtue in this case. Once Rose's ankle fully heals, and it still could take a couple more weeks, owners will be rewarded – 20.0 PPG and 7.5 APG is not out of the question.

Outlook: Buy Low

Andre Miller

Why is Steve Blake starting in Portland?

Andre Miller has never been an elite point guard in the NBA, but he's a superior player to Blake in all aspects except for three-point shooting. Portland is a very good team and as Denver found out last year, a mature floor leader can take the team to the next level. Jered Bayless could be the future in Portland, but Miller should be leading now.

Miller looks lost and his fantasy contributions are reflecting the situation – 8.5 PPG, 4.8 APG, 30% FG% while playing 26.3 minutes per game. In comparison, Miller's line last year was 16.3 PPG, 6.5 APG, 47% FG% while playing 36.3 minutes. This situation has led to owners dumping Andre Miller and that's a mistake. Digging deeper into the statistics shows that Miller's assists and shots per minute are at his career average and once his minutes stabilize, Miller should rebound.

Outlook: Buy Low