As we move towards the Futures Game, it’s time to reveal my mid-season Top 50 Prospects.
The 2012 has seen a number of top prospects graduate to the majors including Bryce Harper (1), Mike Trout (2), Matt Moore (3), Jesus Montero (6), Jacob Turner (12), Trevor Bauer (15), Martin Perez (18), and Anthony Rizzo (48). As is always the case, there have been a number of significant risers that I will detail at the end of the list, including some that have not made the list but you should start to track and be made aware.
1. Wil Myers (KC, OF)
2. Dylan Bundy (Bal, RHP)
3. Jurickson Profar (Tex, SS)
4. Travis d'Arnaud (Tor, C)
5. Taijuan Walker (Sea, RHP)
6. Gerritt Cole (Pit, RHP)
7. Manny Machado (Bal, SS)
8. Tyler Skaggs (Ari, LHP)
9. Miguel Sano (Min, 3B)
10. Archie Bradley (Ari, RHP)
11. Francisco Lindor (Cle, SS)
12. Danny Hultzen (Sea, LHP)
13. Nolan Arenado (Col, 3B)
14. Zack Wheeler (NYM, RHP)
15. Oscar Taveres (Stl, OF)
16. Nick Castellanos (Det, 3B)
17. Jameson Taillon (Pit, RHP)
18. Billy Hamilton (Cin, 2B)
19. Shelby Miller (Stl, RHP)
20. Julio Teheran (Atl, RHP)
21. Jose Fernandez (Mia, RHP)
22. Jackie Bradley (Bos, OF)
23. Anthony Rendon (Was, 3B)
24. Mason Williams (NYY, OF)
25. Carlos Correa (Hou, SS)
26. Bubba Starling (KC, OF)
27. Christian Yelich (Mia, OF)
28. Mike Olt (Tex, 3B)
29. Carlos Martinez (Stl, OF)
30. Gary Sanchez (NYY, C)
31. Byron Buxton (Min, OF)
32. Brandon Jacobs (Bos, OF)
33. Xander Bogaerts (Bos, 2B)
34. Javier Baez (Chc, SS)
35. Aaron Sanchez (Tor, RHP)
36. Jake Odorizzi (KC, RHP)
37. Jean Segura (LAA, 2B)
38. Matt Harvey (NYM, RHP)
39. Jedd Gyorko (SD, 3B)
40. Brad Peacock (Oak, RHP)
41. Matt Davidson (Ari, 3B)
42. Yasmani Grandal (SD, C)
43. Mark Barnes (Bos, RHP)
44. James Paxton (Sea, LHP)
45. Michael Zunino (Sea, C)
46. Jon Singleton (Hou, 1B)
47. Alen Hanson (Pit, SS)
48. Kolten Wong (Stl, 2B)
49. Manny Banuelos (NYY, LHP)
50. George Springer (Hou, OF)
51. Jorge Soler (CHC, OF)
Risers
While his last three outings have shown there is work left to do, 19 year-old right-hand pitcher Taijuan Walker has held his own in Double-A in 2012. The stuff is impressive with a fastball that sits 93-95 with great movement, a wipeout curve, and a change-up that is flashing plus. At 19 and with limited pitching experience, both professionally and as an amateur, a true ace potential is there. Like Walker, Jose Fernandez, is a 19 year-old righty that has pitched exceptional well in 2012. In 79.0 IP, he has a 99K/18BB strikeout to walk ratio and has demonstrated a mid 90’s fastball that bores in on right-handers with a complementary nasty curve and slider combo. The results have earned Fernandez a promotion to High-A in the Florida State League, a great pitchers league.
Jackie Bradley hits the list at #22. Originally projected as a top 20 pick in the 2011 draft, Bradley dropped to a Supplemental pick due to a wrist injury sustained in the Spring. He’s a great athlete showing an excellent approach to hitting and the ability to make contact. In 231 at-bats in High-A, he had a 52BB/40K ratio while batting .355 and swiping 16 bases. Upon a recent promotion to Double-A in the Eastern League, he has continued to rake to the tune of a .368 batting average. Two spots later, Mason Williams, another young center fielder makes his first appearance. Similar to Bradley, Williams makes great contact but appears to have a little more pop, slugging eight home runs in 267 at-bats in Charleston of the Low-A Sally League.
Two third baseman, Mike Olt (28) and Matt Davidson (41) have also made significant progress throughout the year and both are getting close to being big league ready. Olt is batting .304 with 20 home runs in Double-A while Davidson has 16 home runs at the same level. Two up the middle infielders, Alen Hanson (47) and Kolten Wong (48) have also played extremely well in the first half with Hanson coming out of seemingly nowhere to make the list. The 19 year-old Dominican is batting .333, while hitting 12 home runs and stealing 20 bases in the Low-A Sally League for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Scouts don’t think he’ll stay at SS, but could be a quick riser through the minors as a dynamic player at the keystone.
Keeping an eye on these players
It’s always hard doing a Top 50 list as there are players that are deserving, but somehow just wind up short. Here are five players that you need to be tracking in the second half of the year.
Jonathan Schoop (Bal, 2B) – For those who have followed my prospect writings know that I’ve long been a fan of the young infielder from Curacao. The Orioles elected to promote the 20 year-old to Double-A to keep him pared with Manny Machado and he’s been up and down. While he’s only batting .247, the bat speed is still there and I am still projecting him as a first division starter with a plus hit tool and above average power.
Gary Brown (San, OF) – I wrote in the winter that I was worried that Gary Brown would struggle out of the gates in 2012 due to leaving the Arizona Fall League with mono. Well, he has, but has been improving during the month of June by batting .295 with an 87% contact rate. You’re buying Brown for speed and with 21 thefts so far this year while continuing to play an elite outfield, he is still the future in centerfield for the San Francisco Giants.
Dan Staily (Oak, RHP) – Who is the strikeout leader in minor leagues this year? Somebody named Dan Straily. Taken in the 24th round of the 2009 draft, Dan Staily has excelled in each level that he has hit but blew up in 2012 and scouts and analyst have taken note. His fastball sits 91-94 with a nice slider and change-up to complement. He is now in AAA and continuing to excel and I would not be surprised if you see him this year in the big leagues. The comparable is Brandon Beachy as the draft history, size, and stuff is very similar.
Tyler Austin (NYY, OF) – The Charleston Riverdogs are stacked with prospects and Tyler Austin is one of the best. A catcher, turned 3B, turned OF is having one of the best years in any level of the minors. He’s batting .327 and slugging .605 with 14 home runs and 17 stolen bases while walking 33 times in 257 at-bats. His contact rate is also terrific. I’m guessing that the Yankees will be promoting both Williams and Austin very soon.
Austin Hedges (SD, C) – One of the best catching prospects in the minor leagues is Austin Hedges. At 19 years old, Hedges receiving skills and arm are already big league ready. For a catcher, that is amazing. The big question is will the bat play? Scouts are mixed, but so far, he is showing nice contact at 80% and good plate patience with 16 walks in 182 at-bats. The power is also coming through, mostly in batting practice, but he has also slugged six during game action. Hedges is a unique player that bears watching as he is likely to be promoted to High-A this summer. I doubt he will stay there long as his offensive numbers will likely over inflate due to Cal Leagues extreme hitting environment.
Saturday, June 30, 2012
Monday, April 23, 2012
Jose Campos – Yankees Hype or the Real Deal
A sentiment held by many baseball fans is that the Yankees “over-hype their young prospects”. Well, that’s somewhat true, but in general, don’t most teams hype their prospects?
While the New York media has been all over Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, and Gary Sanchez for a couple of years, Jose Campos, the other pitcher in the Jesus Montero trade, should soon start to garner a lot of attention. However, in this case, the attention and hype may in fact be warranted.
Jose Campos is a tall projectable right-handed 19-year Venezuelan with really easy velocity. His fastball sits 91-92 but routinely hits 95, and in his last start in Charleston, the velocity was holding true through the 6th inning. In addition to plus velocity, Campos is also showing plus fastball command, with the ability to throw in all quadrants and paint corners when necessary. To-date, in 22.0 IP in Low-A, Campos has 23 strikeouts while issuing 5 walks.
While the fastball is showing plus in both velocity and command, his secondary pitches are still a work in progress. His curve is fringe average and he might be better served switching exclusively to a slider that has flashed above average and is candidly, easier to throw. The Charleston staff is clearly working on his secondary pitches, as there has been improvement in each of his three starts.
Fans and fantasy baseball owners always want young prospects to move quickly through the minors, but the reality is that young players like Jose Campos need development. In fact, rarely is a pitcher a finished major league product at age 19 as fastball command and control of secondary pitches is what is worked on in the minor leagues. What’s both unique and exciting about Campos is his pitching mechanics and athleticism allows him to command his plus four-seamer and that is rarely seen in a teenage.
Expect Jose Campos to spend the first half of the 2012 season in Low-A before a promotion to High-A over the summer. The key for Campos will be learning to effectively throw his slider before hitting the upper-minors. Once that’s accomplished, he’ll hone his change-up and then assuming he stays healthy, the Yankees could very well have a second front of the rotation pitcher in their trade for Jesus Montero.
While the New York media has been all over Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, and Gary Sanchez for a couple of years, Jose Campos, the other pitcher in the Jesus Montero trade, should soon start to garner a lot of attention. However, in this case, the attention and hype may in fact be warranted.
Jose Campos is a tall projectable right-handed 19-year Venezuelan with really easy velocity. His fastball sits 91-92 but routinely hits 95, and in his last start in Charleston, the velocity was holding true through the 6th inning. In addition to plus velocity, Campos is also showing plus fastball command, with the ability to throw in all quadrants and paint corners when necessary. To-date, in 22.0 IP in Low-A, Campos has 23 strikeouts while issuing 5 walks.
While the fastball is showing plus in both velocity and command, his secondary pitches are still a work in progress. His curve is fringe average and he might be better served switching exclusively to a slider that has flashed above average and is candidly, easier to throw. The Charleston staff is clearly working on his secondary pitches, as there has been improvement in each of his three starts.
Fans and fantasy baseball owners always want young prospects to move quickly through the minors, but the reality is that young players like Jose Campos need development. In fact, rarely is a pitcher a finished major league product at age 19 as fastball command and control of secondary pitches is what is worked on in the minor leagues. What’s both unique and exciting about Campos is his pitching mechanics and athleticism allows him to command his plus four-seamer and that is rarely seen in a teenage.
Expect Jose Campos to spend the first half of the 2012 season in Low-A before a promotion to High-A over the summer. The key for Campos will be learning to effectively throw his slider before hitting the upper-minors. Once that’s accomplished, he’ll hone his change-up and then assuming he stays healthy, the Yankees could very well have a second front of the rotation pitcher in their trade for Jesus Montero.
Saturday, January 14, 2012
2012 Top 100 Prospects (#1-#25)
We are at the end of the my four part Top 100 Prospects analysis. As with all lists, these rankings are a compilation of hands-on scouting, dialogs with scouts and industry experts, as well as statistical analysis. As always, I welcome your feedback.
The final installment of our podcast will occur on BlogTalkradio, Thursday, January 19 at 10pm EST. Last night's podcast will have over 5,000 downloads and is ranked as the top Blogtakradio baseball podcast and is in the Top 5 at iTunes in the same category. This broadcast is on the same feed as our weekly Fantasy Baseball show, which airs every Sunday at 10pm.
Thanks for your support. Here you go...
1. Bryce Harper – OF (Washington Nationals)
I had Harper listed at #2 in June’s 2011 Top 50 list, but the more I see Harper, the more I’m realizing that we are looking at a very special player. Harper has true 80 grade raw power that could translate into 40+ home runs in the majors. He’ll have decent speed initially (10-15 stolen bases per year) but as the body fills out, the speed will diminish. There has also been a lot of discussion about Harper’s make-up. What I’ve seen and experienced is an intense competitor that has a great relationship with his teammates and works extremely hard. Is he going to be an arrogant megastar? Possibly, but I’ll take that and the great make-up any day of the week.
2. Mike Trout – OF (Los Angeles Angels)
Everyone got a chance to see Trout display his skills in the Majors last season. While the production was not there, a careful observer could see the plate discipline, bat speed, and raw 80 speed that will make him a potential all-star for years. A scary comp is Carl Crawford with more power or Grady Sizemore (circa 2008) with a .300 batting average. His make-up is off the charts as is illustrated by his participation in the AFL. After a long season that included significant playing time in the majors, Trout was there.
3. Matt Moore - LHP (Tampa Rays)
Matt Moore came into his own over the 2011 season, culminating in an impressive 7.0 IP, 2 hit, and 6 strikeout performance in the ALDS. The scary thing about the performance was Moore’s stuff was not at it’s best that afternoon. When you see Matt Moore pitch, it’s hard to believe that he’s hitting the upper 90’s with his fastball. The delivery is free and easy with great movement. His curve is a plus-plus tool and his change-up has moved to a 55-60 pitch. Throw in great control and you’ve got a future Ace. The only question left is will the Rays put him in the starting rotation out of Spring Training or hold him back ala Desmond Jennings? Bet on the former.
4. Julio Teheran – RHP (Atlanta Braves)
The Braves have been very aggressive with Julio Teheran’s development, moving him quickly through the organization and even starting him three times in the majors during the 2011 season. All three of those starts were sub-optimal and illustrates while Teheran is very advanced at age 20, he still has room for improvement. Some have even started to sour on Teheran’s upside and while his breaking ball is average at best, his fastball, change-up and command are all plus.
5. Shelby Miller – RHP (St. Louis)
Recently promoted to Double A, Miller has a 93-95 MPH fastball with an above average curve. The command is still developing. There’s a lot to like with Miller and along with Julio Teheran, is the best right-handed pitching prospect in the minors.
6. Jesus Montero – DH (New York Yankees)
The Yankees are a veteran team that takes delicate managing of the many egos on the team. That style of managing led to Jorge Posada playing DH in 2011, forcing one of the best hitting prospects in the minors to continue to hone his craft down on the farm. The reports of Montero being bored are well known. But once he got a chance, he showed the 70 hit tool and power that will make Montero an absolute beast in the Majors. I have Montero listed as a DH and playing for the Yankees, that is what his position will be. If he gets traded, don’t expect him to play catcher, but instead, be moved to 1B.
7. Anthony Rendon – 3B (Washington Nationals)
The Washington Nationals have two of the top 7 prospects in the minor leagues. That’s impressive. While listed second on the Nationals depth chart, Rendon has future star written all over him. He has a very quick bat that moves fast and level through the hitting zone with great plate discipline. That approach should make Rendon a .300 hitter with plus power (20-25) at full maturity. Rendon is also a very nice defender and has the tools to stay at 3B. If the Nationals make a long-term commitment to Ryan Zimmerman, Rendon has the quickness to move to 2B. The speed is only average given his multiple ankle surgeries over the past two years.
8. Jurickson Profar – SS (Texas Rangers)
Everybody talked about how young Bryce Harper was in the Sally League, but Jurickson Profar, the young shortstop prospect from the Texas Rangers, was even younger and wound up as the MVP of the league. Profar has five average to above average tools with no apparent weakness but also no true elite skill. In Low-A, Profar hit 12 home runs, stole 23 bases with a 65/63 strikeout to walk ratio. He defense is also excellent with an above average lateral movement and arm. Scott Boras and Elvis Andrus might equal Jurickson Profar in 2014.
9. Gerrit Cole – RHP (Pittsburgh Pirates)
Cole was the 2011 #1 overall pick in the amateur draft out of UCLA. He has elite stuff with an upper 90's fastball, a nasty change-up and an improving slider. He was being compared at the beginning of the college season to Stephen Strasburg, but scouts quickly realized that while the stuff is there, the command is lacking. A 6-4 and 220lbs, Cole should have the body to endure 200+ innings at the major league level. In his highly anticipated AFL debut, Cole did not disappoint; lighting up the radar with several triple digit readings.
10. Devin Mesoraco – C (Cincinnati Reds)
With Jesus Montero destined to be a designated hitter, Devin Mesoraco is now clearly the #1 catching prospect in the minors and has an excellent chance to break Spring Training with the Cincinnati Reds. Mesoraco is primarily an offensive catcher, although his defensive skills have improved in the last year. While he has a big hard swing, he makes great contact at 81% and also is walking at a clip of 11%. The power in Triple-A yielded 15 home runs but as he matures, Mesoraco should be able to contribute 20+ home runs annually. Wrap it all up and you have a first division catcher with all-star potential.
11. Manny Machado – SS (Baltimore Orioles)
Taken as the #3 overall pick in the 2010 Rule 4 draft, Machado had a terrific 1st year in professional ball given his age. Machado’s combines strong wrist and a quick bat to go along with above average power and speed to form a scary package of a future all-star shortstop. He also has shown nice plate discipline and approach with an 81% contact rate and a 12% walk rate between Low-A and High-A.
12. Jacob Turner – RHP (Detroit Tigers)
Tall projectable pitcher with smooth mechanics with great velocity (94MPH-96MPH) and the ability to spin a curve. Change-up is improving and while only 20, look for the Tigers to break camp with him as the #5 pitcher in the starting rotation.
13. Wil Myers – OF (Kansas City Royals)
A nasty knee infection slowed the development for Wil Myers in 2011, but the hit tool remains solid. While the move to the outfield will accelerate his path to the majors, the dream of an elite hitting prospect behind the plate is gone. In many 2011 pre-season list, Myers was a top 20 prospect but based on his 2011 season, his ranking could very well fall. However, don’t be fooled, Myers has tremendous upside and all-star potential.
14. Dylan Bundy – RHP (Baltimore Orioles)
One of the more advanced high school pitchers to be drafted in quite a while, Bundy sits 94-96MPH with a clean delivery and an advanced change-up for an 18 year-old. Many scouts believe that he has the highest ceiling of any pitcher taken in the 2011 draft. Expect Bundy to start in Low-A or even High-A to start the 2012 season.
15. Trevor Bauer – RHP (Arizona Diamondbacks)
In February, scouts initially went to UCLA games to see Gerrit Cole, but stayed for the Saturday game and saw the emergence of Trevor Bauer. Bauer is an advanced pitcher that led Division I in strikeouts with a 92-95MPH fastball and two above average breaking balls. He signed quickly and excelled in 25.2 innings in High-A and Double-A striking out 43 and walking 12. He does have a funky delivery that turned some scouts off but reminded others of Tim Lincecum. Bauer is on a fast track and could make his major league debut in 2012 with a #2 ceiling.
16. Taijuan Walker – RHP (Seattle Mariners)
Taijuan Walker has as much talent as any pitcher on this list. His fastball sits in the mid 90’s touching higher with a plus power curve. He’s still working on his change-up, but it projects to also be an above average pitch. Even after tiring in August, Walker managed to strikeout 113 batters in 96.2 innings while walking only 39 in the Midwest League (Low-A). At 6-4 and 195 lbs, Walker has the body that can handle the 200 innings that a staff ace eventually will have to log, particularly after he fills out. He’ll move up to the difficult CAL League (High-A) next spring.
17. Jameson Taillon – RHP (Pittsburgh Pirates)
The Pirates took it very easy with their prized prospect, the #2 pick in the 2010 draft by limiting his starts to a maximum of 5 IP pitched per outing. At 6’ 6” and 220lbs, sitting in the mid-90’s with a plus curve ball already, Taillon has future Ace written all over him. In 2012, he should be promoted to High-A and have the training wheels lowered a bit to start working on his change-up, a pitch that Pittsburgh rarely let him throw in 2011.
18. Martin Perez – RHP (Texas Rangers)
Martin Perez has some of the best stuff in the minor leagues with three plus pitches and great mechanics. His fastball sits 92-95MPH with good movement while his curve rates plus and his change-up even better. While he has smooth mechanics, it has not manifested itself into great results as the command has been lacking (120K/56BB). He is still rated very high in part because he will only turn 21 at the start of next season and has already made it to Triple-A. The future is still very bright.
19. Travis d’Arnaud – C (Toronto Blue Jays)
d’Arnaud quietly had a nice season in Double-A New Hampshire showing a 77% contact rate, 8% walk rate while hitting 311, slugging .542, and hitting 21 home runs. He doesn’t have the raw power of major league incumbent J.P Arencibia, but his hit tool is superior. d’Arnaud should start 2012 in Triple-A Las Vegas and the positive hitting environment should play well for him. It will be interesting to see what Toronto does long-term as they now have two legitimate catchers in Travis d’Arnaud and J.P. Arencibia.
20. Tyler Skaggs – RHP (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Taken as the player to be named later in the Dan Haren trade, there’s a lot to dream on with Skaggs. He has size at 6-4 as well as plus velocity at 92-94MPH. To complement the fastball, Skaggs also has a plus classic 12-6 curve that he can control with a change-up that has now ticked up to above average. The best news is that he’s still very young at 20 years-old and may wind up being the best of an elite minor league crop of Diamondback pitchers.
21. Danny Hultzen – LHP (Seattle Mariners)
Danny Hultzen was taken with the #3 pick in the 2011 amateur draft by the Seattle Mariners. He possess a 91-94MHP fast ball with a good slider and change-up. The thing that sets Hultzen apart is his excellent command and polished approach to pitching. While his ceiling might not be as high as some of other standout pitchers in the 2011 draft, he should quickly work his way through the Mariners system with a 2012 major league appearance in the cards.
22. Hak-Ju Lee – SS (Tampa Bay Rays)
Chris Archer was supposed to be the center piece of the 2011 Matt Garza trade, but Hak-Ju Lee has surpassed him and is now the shortstop of the future in Tampa Bay. Lee has nice plate discipline and patience to go with plus speed and defensive ability. Across two levels in 2011, Lee had a 94K/53BB in 500 at bats resulting in a .292 average. This profile should play very well once Lee is promoted to the big leagues. While Lee stole 33 bases, he was thrown out 16 times and will need to improve in order to be considered an elite base stealer.
23. Carlos Martinez – RHP (St. Louis Cardinals)
Incredible young talented 20-year old with an explosive fastball that reaches the upper 90’s with late movement. Improving curve and an emerging change-up have scouts excited about the potential. Command is not there yet and as the Futures Game showed, Martinez can get amped up and overthrow. The stuff and velocity says “Ace”, the body at 6-0 at 170 have scouts unsure on whether he’s a starter or a late inning reliever.
24. Jean Segura – SS (Los Angeles Angels)
Hamstring problems hindered the explosive Jean Segura this year but there is a lot of talent in the 21-year old Dominican shortstop. He has a very wide batting stance with little lower body movement that allows him to have great balance through his swing and produce hard line drives to all fields. Segura posses plus speed and his 50 stolen bases in 2010 should be able to project once he arrives in the majors. Barring another physical setup, Segura will start the year in Double-A with a September call-up not out of the question.
25. Manny Banuelos – LHP (New York Yankees)
Manny Banuelos was all the talk a year ago as he exploded on the scene with an impressive 85K/25BB ratio in 62.2 innings showing a fastball sitting 93-95 and touching 97 with a great 12-6 curve. In 2011, the stuff remained the same but the command was not nearly as good as he progressed to the upper minors. Now people are questioning his size at 5-11 and 170. While not a star, I think a great comp is Wandy Rodriguez. The pitching style and delivery is very similar.
The final installment of our podcast will occur on BlogTalkradio, Thursday, January 19 at 10pm EST. Last night's podcast will have over 5,000 downloads and is ranked as the top Blogtakradio baseball podcast and is in the Top 5 at iTunes in the same category. This broadcast is on the same feed as our weekly Fantasy Baseball show, which airs every Sunday at 10pm.
Thanks for your support. Here you go...
1. Bryce Harper – OF (Washington Nationals)
I had Harper listed at #2 in June’s 2011 Top 50 list, but the more I see Harper, the more I’m realizing that we are looking at a very special player. Harper has true 80 grade raw power that could translate into 40+ home runs in the majors. He’ll have decent speed initially (10-15 stolen bases per year) but as the body fills out, the speed will diminish. There has also been a lot of discussion about Harper’s make-up. What I’ve seen and experienced is an intense competitor that has a great relationship with his teammates and works extremely hard. Is he going to be an arrogant megastar? Possibly, but I’ll take that and the great make-up any day of the week.
2. Mike Trout – OF (Los Angeles Angels)
Everyone got a chance to see Trout display his skills in the Majors last season. While the production was not there, a careful observer could see the plate discipline, bat speed, and raw 80 speed that will make him a potential all-star for years. A scary comp is Carl Crawford with more power or Grady Sizemore (circa 2008) with a .300 batting average. His make-up is off the charts as is illustrated by his participation in the AFL. After a long season that included significant playing time in the majors, Trout was there.
3. Matt Moore - LHP (Tampa Rays)
Matt Moore came into his own over the 2011 season, culminating in an impressive 7.0 IP, 2 hit, and 6 strikeout performance in the ALDS. The scary thing about the performance was Moore’s stuff was not at it’s best that afternoon. When you see Matt Moore pitch, it’s hard to believe that he’s hitting the upper 90’s with his fastball. The delivery is free and easy with great movement. His curve is a plus-plus tool and his change-up has moved to a 55-60 pitch. Throw in great control and you’ve got a future Ace. The only question left is will the Rays put him in the starting rotation out of Spring Training or hold him back ala Desmond Jennings? Bet on the former.
4. Julio Teheran – RHP (Atlanta Braves)
The Braves have been very aggressive with Julio Teheran’s development, moving him quickly through the organization and even starting him three times in the majors during the 2011 season. All three of those starts were sub-optimal and illustrates while Teheran is very advanced at age 20, he still has room for improvement. Some have even started to sour on Teheran’s upside and while his breaking ball is average at best, his fastball, change-up and command are all plus.
5. Shelby Miller – RHP (St. Louis)
Recently promoted to Double A, Miller has a 93-95 MPH fastball with an above average curve. The command is still developing. There’s a lot to like with Miller and along with Julio Teheran, is the best right-handed pitching prospect in the minors.
6. Jesus Montero – DH (New York Yankees)
The Yankees are a veteran team that takes delicate managing of the many egos on the team. That style of managing led to Jorge Posada playing DH in 2011, forcing one of the best hitting prospects in the minors to continue to hone his craft down on the farm. The reports of Montero being bored are well known. But once he got a chance, he showed the 70 hit tool and power that will make Montero an absolute beast in the Majors. I have Montero listed as a DH and playing for the Yankees, that is what his position will be. If he gets traded, don’t expect him to play catcher, but instead, be moved to 1B.
7. Anthony Rendon – 3B (Washington Nationals)
The Washington Nationals have two of the top 7 prospects in the minor leagues. That’s impressive. While listed second on the Nationals depth chart, Rendon has future star written all over him. He has a very quick bat that moves fast and level through the hitting zone with great plate discipline. That approach should make Rendon a .300 hitter with plus power (20-25) at full maturity. Rendon is also a very nice defender and has the tools to stay at 3B. If the Nationals make a long-term commitment to Ryan Zimmerman, Rendon has the quickness to move to 2B. The speed is only average given his multiple ankle surgeries over the past two years.
8. Jurickson Profar – SS (Texas Rangers)
Everybody talked about how young Bryce Harper was in the Sally League, but Jurickson Profar, the young shortstop prospect from the Texas Rangers, was even younger and wound up as the MVP of the league. Profar has five average to above average tools with no apparent weakness but also no true elite skill. In Low-A, Profar hit 12 home runs, stole 23 bases with a 65/63 strikeout to walk ratio. He defense is also excellent with an above average lateral movement and arm. Scott Boras and Elvis Andrus might equal Jurickson Profar in 2014.
9. Gerrit Cole – RHP (Pittsburgh Pirates)
Cole was the 2011 #1 overall pick in the amateur draft out of UCLA. He has elite stuff with an upper 90's fastball, a nasty change-up and an improving slider. He was being compared at the beginning of the college season to Stephen Strasburg, but scouts quickly realized that while the stuff is there, the command is lacking. A 6-4 and 220lbs, Cole should have the body to endure 200+ innings at the major league level. In his highly anticipated AFL debut, Cole did not disappoint; lighting up the radar with several triple digit readings.
10. Devin Mesoraco – C (Cincinnati Reds)
With Jesus Montero destined to be a designated hitter, Devin Mesoraco is now clearly the #1 catching prospect in the minors and has an excellent chance to break Spring Training with the Cincinnati Reds. Mesoraco is primarily an offensive catcher, although his defensive skills have improved in the last year. While he has a big hard swing, he makes great contact at 81% and also is walking at a clip of 11%. The power in Triple-A yielded 15 home runs but as he matures, Mesoraco should be able to contribute 20+ home runs annually. Wrap it all up and you have a first division catcher with all-star potential.
11. Manny Machado – SS (Baltimore Orioles)
Taken as the #3 overall pick in the 2010 Rule 4 draft, Machado had a terrific 1st year in professional ball given his age. Machado’s combines strong wrist and a quick bat to go along with above average power and speed to form a scary package of a future all-star shortstop. He also has shown nice plate discipline and approach with an 81% contact rate and a 12% walk rate between Low-A and High-A.
12. Jacob Turner – RHP (Detroit Tigers)
Tall projectable pitcher with smooth mechanics with great velocity (94MPH-96MPH) and the ability to spin a curve. Change-up is improving and while only 20, look for the Tigers to break camp with him as the #5 pitcher in the starting rotation.
13. Wil Myers – OF (Kansas City Royals)
A nasty knee infection slowed the development for Wil Myers in 2011, but the hit tool remains solid. While the move to the outfield will accelerate his path to the majors, the dream of an elite hitting prospect behind the plate is gone. In many 2011 pre-season list, Myers was a top 20 prospect but based on his 2011 season, his ranking could very well fall. However, don’t be fooled, Myers has tremendous upside and all-star potential.
14. Dylan Bundy – RHP (Baltimore Orioles)
One of the more advanced high school pitchers to be drafted in quite a while, Bundy sits 94-96MPH with a clean delivery and an advanced change-up for an 18 year-old. Many scouts believe that he has the highest ceiling of any pitcher taken in the 2011 draft. Expect Bundy to start in Low-A or even High-A to start the 2012 season.
15. Trevor Bauer – RHP (Arizona Diamondbacks)
In February, scouts initially went to UCLA games to see Gerrit Cole, but stayed for the Saturday game and saw the emergence of Trevor Bauer. Bauer is an advanced pitcher that led Division I in strikeouts with a 92-95MPH fastball and two above average breaking balls. He signed quickly and excelled in 25.2 innings in High-A and Double-A striking out 43 and walking 12. He does have a funky delivery that turned some scouts off but reminded others of Tim Lincecum. Bauer is on a fast track and could make his major league debut in 2012 with a #2 ceiling.
16. Taijuan Walker – RHP (Seattle Mariners)
Taijuan Walker has as much talent as any pitcher on this list. His fastball sits in the mid 90’s touching higher with a plus power curve. He’s still working on his change-up, but it projects to also be an above average pitch. Even after tiring in August, Walker managed to strikeout 113 batters in 96.2 innings while walking only 39 in the Midwest League (Low-A). At 6-4 and 195 lbs, Walker has the body that can handle the 200 innings that a staff ace eventually will have to log, particularly after he fills out. He’ll move up to the difficult CAL League (High-A) next spring.
17. Jameson Taillon – RHP (Pittsburgh Pirates)
The Pirates took it very easy with their prized prospect, the #2 pick in the 2010 draft by limiting his starts to a maximum of 5 IP pitched per outing. At 6’ 6” and 220lbs, sitting in the mid-90’s with a plus curve ball already, Taillon has future Ace written all over him. In 2012, he should be promoted to High-A and have the training wheels lowered a bit to start working on his change-up, a pitch that Pittsburgh rarely let him throw in 2011.
18. Martin Perez – RHP (Texas Rangers)
Martin Perez has some of the best stuff in the minor leagues with three plus pitches and great mechanics. His fastball sits 92-95MPH with good movement while his curve rates plus and his change-up even better. While he has smooth mechanics, it has not manifested itself into great results as the command has been lacking (120K/56BB). He is still rated very high in part because he will only turn 21 at the start of next season and has already made it to Triple-A. The future is still very bright.
19. Travis d’Arnaud – C (Toronto Blue Jays)
d’Arnaud quietly had a nice season in Double-A New Hampshire showing a 77% contact rate, 8% walk rate while hitting 311, slugging .542, and hitting 21 home runs. He doesn’t have the raw power of major league incumbent J.P Arencibia, but his hit tool is superior. d’Arnaud should start 2012 in Triple-A Las Vegas and the positive hitting environment should play well for him. It will be interesting to see what Toronto does long-term as they now have two legitimate catchers in Travis d’Arnaud and J.P. Arencibia.
20. Tyler Skaggs – RHP (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Taken as the player to be named later in the Dan Haren trade, there’s a lot to dream on with Skaggs. He has size at 6-4 as well as plus velocity at 92-94MPH. To complement the fastball, Skaggs also has a plus classic 12-6 curve that he can control with a change-up that has now ticked up to above average. The best news is that he’s still very young at 20 years-old and may wind up being the best of an elite minor league crop of Diamondback pitchers.
21. Danny Hultzen – LHP (Seattle Mariners)
Danny Hultzen was taken with the #3 pick in the 2011 amateur draft by the Seattle Mariners. He possess a 91-94MHP fast ball with a good slider and change-up. The thing that sets Hultzen apart is his excellent command and polished approach to pitching. While his ceiling might not be as high as some of other standout pitchers in the 2011 draft, he should quickly work his way through the Mariners system with a 2012 major league appearance in the cards.
22. Hak-Ju Lee – SS (Tampa Bay Rays)
Chris Archer was supposed to be the center piece of the 2011 Matt Garza trade, but Hak-Ju Lee has surpassed him and is now the shortstop of the future in Tampa Bay. Lee has nice plate discipline and patience to go with plus speed and defensive ability. Across two levels in 2011, Lee had a 94K/53BB in 500 at bats resulting in a .292 average. This profile should play very well once Lee is promoted to the big leagues. While Lee stole 33 bases, he was thrown out 16 times and will need to improve in order to be considered an elite base stealer.
23. Carlos Martinez – RHP (St. Louis Cardinals)
Incredible young talented 20-year old with an explosive fastball that reaches the upper 90’s with late movement. Improving curve and an emerging change-up have scouts excited about the potential. Command is not there yet and as the Futures Game showed, Martinez can get amped up and overthrow. The stuff and velocity says “Ace”, the body at 6-0 at 170 have scouts unsure on whether he’s a starter or a late inning reliever.
24. Jean Segura – SS (Los Angeles Angels)
Hamstring problems hindered the explosive Jean Segura this year but there is a lot of talent in the 21-year old Dominican shortstop. He has a very wide batting stance with little lower body movement that allows him to have great balance through his swing and produce hard line drives to all fields. Segura posses plus speed and his 50 stolen bases in 2010 should be able to project once he arrives in the majors. Barring another physical setup, Segura will start the year in Double-A with a September call-up not out of the question.
25. Manny Banuelos – LHP (New York Yankees)
Manny Banuelos was all the talk a year ago as he exploded on the scene with an impressive 85K/25BB ratio in 62.2 innings showing a fastball sitting 93-95 and touching 97 with a great 12-6 curve. In 2011, the stuff remained the same but the command was not nearly as good as he progressed to the upper minors. Now people are questioning his size at 5-11 and 170. While not a star, I think a great comp is Wandy Rodriguez. The pitching style and delivery is very similar.
Thursday, January 5, 2012
2012 Top 100 Prospects (#26-#50)
We are half way done with the list and we now move up to prospects #26 to #50. As with all lists, these rankings are a compilation of hands-on scouting, dialogs with scouts and industry experts, as well as statistical analysis.
Markus Potter and I will be doing a special podcast on BlogTalkradio, Thursday, January 12 at 9pm EST. http://tinyurl.com/86pcyhj. This broadcast is on the same feed as our weekly Fantasy Baseball show, which airs every Sunday at 10pm and is the #1 Sports Show on BTR.
26. Nolan Arenado - 3B (Colorado Rockies)
Arenado turned a lot of heads in the 2011 Arizona Fall League, batting .388 with a 1.059 OPS while winning MVP honors. Drafted in the second round in 2008, Arenado has a plus hit tool with gap power that should eventually translate into 20-25 home run power. In High-A Modesto, he demonstrated an elite 88% contact rate and a passable 8% walk rate. Assuming Arenado continues to mash in Double-A, he will be rising very quickly on everyone’s prospect list.
27. Arodys Vizcaino – RHP (Atlanta Braves)
The centerpiece of the Javier Vazquez trade in 2010 to the Yankees is starting to pay-off for the Braves. Vizcaino combines plus velocity that sits 93-94 and hitting 97 MPH with the ability to command the fastball. His breaking ball is now above average and continues to improve while the change-up is still emerging. There is still debate among scouts and baseball executives on whether Vizcaino is a starter or late inning reliever but all agree that the young Dominican has got great stuff and a bright future.
28. Zack Wheeler – RHP (New York Mets)
Wheeler was traded from San Francisco to the New York Mets in the Carlos Beltran trade and immediately went to the top of the prospect list for the Mets. He throws a nasty 92-94MPH two-seam fastball with natural sink. The results in High-A across both the Mets and Giants were 129K/55BB in 115 innings. While the walks are on the high side, this is very typical for a sinker-baller and should correct over time.
29. Gary Brown – OF (San Francisco Giants)
If you’re looking for a future MLB steal champion, it could very well be Gary Brown. Brown has blazing 80-grade speed and amassed 53 steals on 72 attempts in High-A in 2011. His batting approach has turned out to better than scouts predicted showing decent plate discipline (8.0 BB rate). His speed and defensive ability will fit nicely in the cavernous PacBell Park. A small blip could be his departure from the Arizona Fall League with mononucleosis. This could slow him early in 2012 as he starts in Double-A.
30. Mike Montgomery – LHP (Kansas City Royals)
Montgomery is a tall 6-4 lefty that was christened as the pitching ace of the Kansas City rebuilding program, possibly starting in 2011. The stuff is excellent with a fastball that sits 92-94MPH and hitting as high as 97 with late life as well a plus curve and an improving change-up. However, the command left Montgomery as he struggled for most of the year repeating his mechanics. The results were a less than stellar 69 walks in 150.2 innings in Triple-A. There were reports of better command in August as Montgomery finished the month with a nice line of 19.2 and 21K/3BB. Don’t give up on Montgomery as lefties with the stuff that he has do not grow on trees.
31. Jarrod Parker – RHP (Oakland A’s)
The Diamondbacks took it very slowly with Jarrod Parker in 2011 as he recovered from Tommy John Surgery. Parker was basically limited to 5.0 innings per game with his plus velocity returning by May. As is typical, the command took a while but by mid-season, Parker had a 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio. With his trade to the A’s, Parker has an excellent chance to break camp with club for the 2012 season with an upside of a #2 starter.
32. Drew Pomeranz – LHP (Colorado Rockies)
Pomeranz was the first college pitcher taken in the 2010 draft by Cleveland, and then found himself a year later, traded to Colorado for Ubaldo Jimenez. Pitching in Colorado instead of Cleveland for a guy who is more of a flyball pitcher than a ground pitcher is clearly a setback (GA/OA was 0.83). Pomeranz does have good stuff as his fastball sits 93-95MPH to go along with a plus curve. His change-up is still below average and he rarely throws it. Pomeranz did make four starts in the majors in 2012 but unless he improves the change-up and starts to keep the ball down, success will be difficult. There’s a lot to like in Pomeranz, but more development is needed.
33. Jonathan Singleton – 1B (Houston Astros)
Christmas came early for Jonathan Singleton as he was stuck behind Ryan Howard in Philadelphia but is now behind a combination of Carlos Lee and Brett Wallace in Houston. Singleton posses great raw strength with quick hands and nice plate discipline for a 19-year old - walking 70 times in 449 at bats in 2011. While the 13 home runs he hit didn’t challenge any record, he’s still very young and raw and should grow into his power.
34. James Paxton – LHP (Seattle Mariners)
Drafted in the fourth round in 2010, Paxton has very good stuff with his fastball sitting 90-94MHP with good life and sink as well as one of the better curves in the minors. The change-up is still a work in progress but is beginning to flash as an above average offering. He does have a long delivery which can sometimes lead to inconsistent command as is evidence by his 43 walks in 95 innings in 2011. However, the ground ball rate is excellent with a 1.53 GO/AO rate. Paxton will start 2012 in Double-A.
35. Matt Harvey – RHP (New York Mets)
The concerns of overuse in college have subsided and the Mets look like they’ve gotten an excellent front of the rotation arm in the 2010 draft. Harvey sits 93-95 with nice spin on his breaking ball. His change-up is not there yet but should develop as he moves through the Mets organization. Harvey should continue back in Double-A to start the 2012 season, but a mid-season promotion to Triple-A or Flushing is probably in the cards.
36. Zach Lee – RHP (Los Angeles Dodgers)
The Dodgers #1 pick in 2010 had a very good first year in professional ball, striking out 91 in 109 innings while only walking 32. A very athletic hard thrower who sits 91-94MPH with a lot of late life, Lee has better secondary pitches than scouts originally thought. The Dodgers have a history of moving top pitching prospects quickly through their system and Zach Lee should continue that tradition.
37. Miguel Sano -3B (Minnesota Twins)
Candidly, I’m a little uncomfortable putting an 18 year-old player this high on the list, particularly when the highest level he has played in is the short season Appy League, but there’s too much talent in Miguel Sano to ignore. Sano was signed by the Twins in 2009 out of the D.R. for $3.15M. He posses plus-plus power and when fully actualized in the majors, could hit 30-35 home runs. He still is learning how to hit as is evidence by his high swing and miss ratio (77K in 267 at bats) but scouts believe his quick hands and decent batting eye will lead to a plus hit tool.
38. Dellin Betances – RHP (New York Yankees)
Not only is Dellin Betances a very large human at 6-8 and 260 lbs, he’s also has nasty stuff with his fastball sitting in the mid 90’s and a nasty power curveball. In 2011 across Double-A and Triple-A, he’s struck out 142 in 126.1 innings but he also walked 70 indicating that his command is trailing his stuff. Betances still has some development left but given the status of the Yankees rotation, he could very well make the starting rotation out of camp in 2012. If he does, expect him to struggle a bit but remember, the upside is still there.
39. Brad Peacock – RHP (Oakland A’s)
Not many prospect saw their stock rise in the 2011 season more than Brad Peacock. Across Double-A and Triple-A, Peacock struck out 177 in 146.2 innings while walking only 47. This resulted in a September callup where Peacock won his first two major league starts, although he didn’t pitch all that effective. Peacock stuff is legitimate as he combines a 91-94MPH four seam fastball that with a lot of late life with a plus 12-6 curve that produces a lot of swing and misses. His change-up is still a work in progress and if the A’s are smart, they would give Peacock another 12-15 starts in Triple-A to refine the pitch. Peacock has strong #3 potential with #2 upside.
40. Neil Ramirez – RHP(Texas Rangers)
Promoted from Single-A to Triple-A in 2011, Ramirez has started to show why he was a supplemental pick in the 2007 draft. Ramirez put things together last year with a fastball that sits 93-94MPH, a plus curve and an above average change-up, although some shoulder problems hampered his second half development. With the addition of Darvish and Feliz to the rotation, Ramirez timeframe has been delayed. However, the talent is there and Texas has never been shy about trading talent to help their major league ball club.
41. Yasmani Grandal - C (San Diego)
The Reds had depth at catching and decided to trade Grandal to the Padres in the Mat Latos deal. While the path to the majors is now clear, Grandal will be faced with a massive Petco Park instead of the small confines of "The Great American" Park in Cincinnati. While Grandal doesn’t have the upside of Mesoraco, he still has the offensive skill set to become an elite backstop and hit in the middle of the lineup. Plus power and a great approach to hitting were demonstrated over three stops in 2011 (14 home runs, 16% walk rate, and a 75% contact rate).
42. Wilin Rosario – C (Colorado Rockies)
Rosario was having a breakout year in 2010, when knee surgery cut his season short in Double-A. In 2011, he repeated Double-A and continued to show considerable power by hitting 21 home runs in 405 at bat but also demonstrated a lack of plate discipline by only walking 19 times. Defensively, Rosario has a plus arm and handles pitchers very well. Whether we like to admit it or not, this is becoming a typical profile of a major league catcher - some pop with a poor batting average.
43. Michael Choice - OF (Oakland A’s)
Oakland has searched for a long-time for a middle of the order power bat and may have found one in Michael Choice. Taken as the #10 overall pick in the 2010 draft, Choice dominated the CAL league by hitting 30 home runs and batting .285. While his strikeout rate was high at 28%, Choice did shorten his swing throughout the year and dropped his strikeout rate significantly without loosing power. He does swing with maximum effort causing noticeable backside collapse ala Adrian Beltre.
44. Leonys Martin – OF (Texas Rangers)
I’ve gone back and forth on Leonys Martin. Originally, I didn’t believe the hype surrounding his signing, but the success in 302 at-bats in the minors changed my mind as he had an 88% contact rate to go along with a 9% walk rate. He also managed to steal 19 bases but did get thrown out 11 times. I’m still not totally sold on the hit-tool and could very well see him flame out
45. Yonder Alonso – 1B (San Diego Padres)
In 2010, Yonder Alonso batted .296, had 12 home runs and 56 RBI at Triple-A. In 2011 in Triple-A, he batted .296, had 12 home runs and 56 RBI. Talk about consistency! Alonso has a nice lefty swing that profiles as a plus hit-tool and above average power. He is ready for the major leagues and while the trade to San Diego moved him away from MVP Joey Votto, he will now be competing with Anthony Rizzo for playing time. There has been talk of moving him to the outfield, but I don’t believe the speed and athleticism is there to warrant the move.
46. Aaron Hicks – OF (Minnesota Twins)
Scouts fall in love with tools and Aaron Hicks has a ton of them. The problem is his ability to hit has yet to catch up to his athleticism. Part of the problem is the 78 walks he took in 443 at-bats this year in the Class-A Florida State League. Scouts look for aggressive hitters with a good eye but Hicks is just passive at the plate. He doesn’t swing at good pitches and then gets himself into poor hitting counts resulting in weak contact. In the final two months of the season, Hicks batted a paltry .195. At 22 years-old and likely to repeat Single-A, Hicks needs to start figuring things out.
47. Jake Marisnick – OF (Toronto Blue Jays)
At 6-4 and 220lbs, Jake Marisnick looks like a ballplayer. He has the size, speed, and athleticism to profile as a true center fielder. He has quick hands and prenatural ability to barrel the ball. In Low-A, he batted .320 with a great contact rate of 80% and walk rate of 9% while adding 37 steals in 45 attempts and hitting 14 home runs. He’ll start the year in High-A and if all goes well, should progress very quickly through the Toronto organization.
48. Anthony Rizzo – 1B (San Diego Padres)
The cutoff for prospect eligibility for positional players is 130 major league at bats. Anthony Rizzo makes it under the wire at 128 after an unforgettable major league debut in 2011. How unforgettable? He had one more stolen base than home runs. It’s clear that Rizzo has plus raw power but he also has a very long swing that major league pitchers were able to find holes resulting in 46 strikeouts in 128 at bats. The question is will he adjust? He makes the list because of the power and the dream but could easily fall into obscurity if he doesn’t shorten up the stroke.
49. Bubba Starling – OF (Kansas City Royals)
Committed to play quarterback at the University of Nebraska, a $7.5M signing bonus by the Royals in 2011 draft quickly swayed Bubba Starling to try baseball as a career. Starling is blessed with great physical skills – a 6-5 195lbs frame, great raw power and plus arm strength. He profiles as a slugging right fielder. The big question will be, can he hit? The high-school competition he faced was pretty weak but scouts like his bat speed but do see his swing getting long. Player development will be the key.
50. Gary Sanchez – C (New York Yankees)
Gary Sanchez performance in 2010 as a 17 year-old in Rookie ball had scouts buzzing and commenting that very over-used phrase, "the ball just sounds different coming off his bat". In 2011, as an 18-year in Low-A, things were not as rosy. Sanchez still demonstrated the bat speed and strength that excited scouts, but some make-up issues surfaced that eventually sent him back to extended spring training. In the end, Sanchez played well, hitting 17 home runs with a 93K/36BB over 301 at bats but clearly there is work left to be done. The upside, particularly at the catching position, is still very high for the young Gary Sanchez.
Markus Potter and I will be doing a special podcast on BlogTalkradio, Thursday, January 12 at 9pm EST. http://tinyurl.com/86pcyhj. This broadcast is on the same feed as our weekly Fantasy Baseball show, which airs every Sunday at 10pm and is the #1 Sports Show on BTR.
26. Nolan Arenado - 3B (Colorado Rockies)
Arenado turned a lot of heads in the 2011 Arizona Fall League, batting .388 with a 1.059 OPS while winning MVP honors. Drafted in the second round in 2008, Arenado has a plus hit tool with gap power that should eventually translate into 20-25 home run power. In High-A Modesto, he demonstrated an elite 88% contact rate and a passable 8% walk rate. Assuming Arenado continues to mash in Double-A, he will be rising very quickly on everyone’s prospect list.
27. Arodys Vizcaino – RHP (Atlanta Braves)
The centerpiece of the Javier Vazquez trade in 2010 to the Yankees is starting to pay-off for the Braves. Vizcaino combines plus velocity that sits 93-94 and hitting 97 MPH with the ability to command the fastball. His breaking ball is now above average and continues to improve while the change-up is still emerging. There is still debate among scouts and baseball executives on whether Vizcaino is a starter or late inning reliever but all agree that the young Dominican has got great stuff and a bright future.
28. Zack Wheeler – RHP (New York Mets)
Wheeler was traded from San Francisco to the New York Mets in the Carlos Beltran trade and immediately went to the top of the prospect list for the Mets. He throws a nasty 92-94MPH two-seam fastball with natural sink. The results in High-A across both the Mets and Giants were 129K/55BB in 115 innings. While the walks are on the high side, this is very typical for a sinker-baller and should correct over time.
29. Gary Brown – OF (San Francisco Giants)
If you’re looking for a future MLB steal champion, it could very well be Gary Brown. Brown has blazing 80-grade speed and amassed 53 steals on 72 attempts in High-A in 2011. His batting approach has turned out to better than scouts predicted showing decent plate discipline (8.0 BB rate). His speed and defensive ability will fit nicely in the cavernous PacBell Park. A small blip could be his departure from the Arizona Fall League with mononucleosis. This could slow him early in 2012 as he starts in Double-A.
30. Mike Montgomery – LHP (Kansas City Royals)
Montgomery is a tall 6-4 lefty that was christened as the pitching ace of the Kansas City rebuilding program, possibly starting in 2011. The stuff is excellent with a fastball that sits 92-94MPH and hitting as high as 97 with late life as well a plus curve and an improving change-up. However, the command left Montgomery as he struggled for most of the year repeating his mechanics. The results were a less than stellar 69 walks in 150.2 innings in Triple-A. There were reports of better command in August as Montgomery finished the month with a nice line of 19.2 and 21K/3BB. Don’t give up on Montgomery as lefties with the stuff that he has do not grow on trees.
31. Jarrod Parker – RHP (Oakland A’s)
The Diamondbacks took it very slowly with Jarrod Parker in 2011 as he recovered from Tommy John Surgery. Parker was basically limited to 5.0 innings per game with his plus velocity returning by May. As is typical, the command took a while but by mid-season, Parker had a 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio. With his trade to the A’s, Parker has an excellent chance to break camp with club for the 2012 season with an upside of a #2 starter.
32. Drew Pomeranz – LHP (Colorado Rockies)
Pomeranz was the first college pitcher taken in the 2010 draft by Cleveland, and then found himself a year later, traded to Colorado for Ubaldo Jimenez. Pitching in Colorado instead of Cleveland for a guy who is more of a flyball pitcher than a ground pitcher is clearly a setback (GA/OA was 0.83). Pomeranz does have good stuff as his fastball sits 93-95MPH to go along with a plus curve. His change-up is still below average and he rarely throws it. Pomeranz did make four starts in the majors in 2012 but unless he improves the change-up and starts to keep the ball down, success will be difficult. There’s a lot to like in Pomeranz, but more development is needed.
33. Jonathan Singleton – 1B (Houston Astros)
Christmas came early for Jonathan Singleton as he was stuck behind Ryan Howard in Philadelphia but is now behind a combination of Carlos Lee and Brett Wallace in Houston. Singleton posses great raw strength with quick hands and nice plate discipline for a 19-year old - walking 70 times in 449 at bats in 2011. While the 13 home runs he hit didn’t challenge any record, he’s still very young and raw and should grow into his power.
34. James Paxton – LHP (Seattle Mariners)
Drafted in the fourth round in 2010, Paxton has very good stuff with his fastball sitting 90-94MHP with good life and sink as well as one of the better curves in the minors. The change-up is still a work in progress but is beginning to flash as an above average offering. He does have a long delivery which can sometimes lead to inconsistent command as is evidence by his 43 walks in 95 innings in 2011. However, the ground ball rate is excellent with a 1.53 GO/AO rate. Paxton will start 2012 in Double-A.
35. Matt Harvey – RHP (New York Mets)
The concerns of overuse in college have subsided and the Mets look like they’ve gotten an excellent front of the rotation arm in the 2010 draft. Harvey sits 93-95 with nice spin on his breaking ball. His change-up is not there yet but should develop as he moves through the Mets organization. Harvey should continue back in Double-A to start the 2012 season, but a mid-season promotion to Triple-A or Flushing is probably in the cards.
36. Zach Lee – RHP (Los Angeles Dodgers)
The Dodgers #1 pick in 2010 had a very good first year in professional ball, striking out 91 in 109 innings while only walking 32. A very athletic hard thrower who sits 91-94MPH with a lot of late life, Lee has better secondary pitches than scouts originally thought. The Dodgers have a history of moving top pitching prospects quickly through their system and Zach Lee should continue that tradition.
37. Miguel Sano -3B (Minnesota Twins)
Candidly, I’m a little uncomfortable putting an 18 year-old player this high on the list, particularly when the highest level he has played in is the short season Appy League, but there’s too much talent in Miguel Sano to ignore. Sano was signed by the Twins in 2009 out of the D.R. for $3.15M. He posses plus-plus power and when fully actualized in the majors, could hit 30-35 home runs. He still is learning how to hit as is evidence by his high swing and miss ratio (77K in 267 at bats) but scouts believe his quick hands and decent batting eye will lead to a plus hit tool.
38. Dellin Betances – RHP (New York Yankees)
Not only is Dellin Betances a very large human at 6-8 and 260 lbs, he’s also has nasty stuff with his fastball sitting in the mid 90’s and a nasty power curveball. In 2011 across Double-A and Triple-A, he’s struck out 142 in 126.1 innings but he also walked 70 indicating that his command is trailing his stuff. Betances still has some development left but given the status of the Yankees rotation, he could very well make the starting rotation out of camp in 2012. If he does, expect him to struggle a bit but remember, the upside is still there.
39. Brad Peacock – RHP (Oakland A’s)
Not many prospect saw their stock rise in the 2011 season more than Brad Peacock. Across Double-A and Triple-A, Peacock struck out 177 in 146.2 innings while walking only 47. This resulted in a September callup where Peacock won his first two major league starts, although he didn’t pitch all that effective. Peacock stuff is legitimate as he combines a 91-94MPH four seam fastball that with a lot of late life with a plus 12-6 curve that produces a lot of swing and misses. His change-up is still a work in progress and if the A’s are smart, they would give Peacock another 12-15 starts in Triple-A to refine the pitch. Peacock has strong #3 potential with #2 upside.
40. Neil Ramirez – RHP(Texas Rangers)
Promoted from Single-A to Triple-A in 2011, Ramirez has started to show why he was a supplemental pick in the 2007 draft. Ramirez put things together last year with a fastball that sits 93-94MPH, a plus curve and an above average change-up, although some shoulder problems hampered his second half development. With the addition of Darvish and Feliz to the rotation, Ramirez timeframe has been delayed. However, the talent is there and Texas has never been shy about trading talent to help their major league ball club.
41. Yasmani Grandal - C (San Diego)
The Reds had depth at catching and decided to trade Grandal to the Padres in the Mat Latos deal. While the path to the majors is now clear, Grandal will be faced with a massive Petco Park instead of the small confines of "The Great American" Park in Cincinnati. While Grandal doesn’t have the upside of Mesoraco, he still has the offensive skill set to become an elite backstop and hit in the middle of the lineup. Plus power and a great approach to hitting were demonstrated over three stops in 2011 (14 home runs, 16% walk rate, and a 75% contact rate).
42. Wilin Rosario – C (Colorado Rockies)
Rosario was having a breakout year in 2010, when knee surgery cut his season short in Double-A. In 2011, he repeated Double-A and continued to show considerable power by hitting 21 home runs in 405 at bat but also demonstrated a lack of plate discipline by only walking 19 times. Defensively, Rosario has a plus arm and handles pitchers very well. Whether we like to admit it or not, this is becoming a typical profile of a major league catcher - some pop with a poor batting average.
43. Michael Choice - OF (Oakland A’s)
Oakland has searched for a long-time for a middle of the order power bat and may have found one in Michael Choice. Taken as the #10 overall pick in the 2010 draft, Choice dominated the CAL league by hitting 30 home runs and batting .285. While his strikeout rate was high at 28%, Choice did shorten his swing throughout the year and dropped his strikeout rate significantly without loosing power. He does swing with maximum effort causing noticeable backside collapse ala Adrian Beltre.
44. Leonys Martin – OF (Texas Rangers)
I’ve gone back and forth on Leonys Martin. Originally, I didn’t believe the hype surrounding his signing, but the success in 302 at-bats in the minors changed my mind as he had an 88% contact rate to go along with a 9% walk rate. He also managed to steal 19 bases but did get thrown out 11 times. I’m still not totally sold on the hit-tool and could very well see him flame out
45. Yonder Alonso – 1B (San Diego Padres)
In 2010, Yonder Alonso batted .296, had 12 home runs and 56 RBI at Triple-A. In 2011 in Triple-A, he batted .296, had 12 home runs and 56 RBI. Talk about consistency! Alonso has a nice lefty swing that profiles as a plus hit-tool and above average power. He is ready for the major leagues and while the trade to San Diego moved him away from MVP Joey Votto, he will now be competing with Anthony Rizzo for playing time. There has been talk of moving him to the outfield, but I don’t believe the speed and athleticism is there to warrant the move.
46. Aaron Hicks – OF (Minnesota Twins)
Scouts fall in love with tools and Aaron Hicks has a ton of them. The problem is his ability to hit has yet to catch up to his athleticism. Part of the problem is the 78 walks he took in 443 at-bats this year in the Class-A Florida State League. Scouts look for aggressive hitters with a good eye but Hicks is just passive at the plate. He doesn’t swing at good pitches and then gets himself into poor hitting counts resulting in weak contact. In the final two months of the season, Hicks batted a paltry .195. At 22 years-old and likely to repeat Single-A, Hicks needs to start figuring things out.
47. Jake Marisnick – OF (Toronto Blue Jays)
At 6-4 and 220lbs, Jake Marisnick looks like a ballplayer. He has the size, speed, and athleticism to profile as a true center fielder. He has quick hands and prenatural ability to barrel the ball. In Low-A, he batted .320 with a great contact rate of 80% and walk rate of 9% while adding 37 steals in 45 attempts and hitting 14 home runs. He’ll start the year in High-A and if all goes well, should progress very quickly through the Toronto organization.
48. Anthony Rizzo – 1B (San Diego Padres)
The cutoff for prospect eligibility for positional players is 130 major league at bats. Anthony Rizzo makes it under the wire at 128 after an unforgettable major league debut in 2011. How unforgettable? He had one more stolen base than home runs. It’s clear that Rizzo has plus raw power but he also has a very long swing that major league pitchers were able to find holes resulting in 46 strikeouts in 128 at bats. The question is will he adjust? He makes the list because of the power and the dream but could easily fall into obscurity if he doesn’t shorten up the stroke.
49. Bubba Starling – OF (Kansas City Royals)
Committed to play quarterback at the University of Nebraska, a $7.5M signing bonus by the Royals in 2011 draft quickly swayed Bubba Starling to try baseball as a career. Starling is blessed with great physical skills – a 6-5 195lbs frame, great raw power and plus arm strength. He profiles as a slugging right fielder. The big question will be, can he hit? The high-school competition he faced was pretty weak but scouts like his bat speed but do see his swing getting long. Player development will be the key.
50. Gary Sanchez – C (New York Yankees)
Gary Sanchez performance in 2010 as a 17 year-old in Rookie ball had scouts buzzing and commenting that very over-used phrase, "the ball just sounds different coming off his bat". In 2011, as an 18-year in Low-A, things were not as rosy. Sanchez still demonstrated the bat speed and strength that excited scouts, but some make-up issues surfaced that eventually sent him back to extended spring training. In the end, Sanchez played well, hitting 17 home runs with a 93K/36BB over 301 at bats but clearly there is work left to be done. The upside, particularly at the catching position, is still very high for the young Gary Sanchez.
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
2012 Top 100 Prospects (#51 to #75)
We now move up the list to prospects #51 to #75. As with all lists, these rankings are a compilation of hands-on scouting, dialogs with scouts and industry experts, as well as statistical analysis. While I try to be logical, I have my favorites, as everyone does, and I have a tendency to stuff those higher on the list (i.e. Schoop) as well as guys that I just don't buy into fully (Cosart and Jackson).
Once again, Markus Potter and I will be doing a special podcast on BlogTalkradio, Wednesday, December 28th at 9pm EST. http://tinyurl.com/cwv2jjt . This broadcast is on the same feed as our weekly Fantasy Baseball show, which airs every Sunday at 10pm and is the #1 Sports Show on BTR.
51. Jonathan Schoop – 2B (Baltimore Orioles)
Many people are starting to call Jonathan Schoop a poor man’s Manny Machado. While Machado is ranked well ahead of Schoop, as Schoop continues to mature, the comp is starting to make a lot of sense. Schoop progressed to High-A as a 19-year old and showed a nice batting approach with an 85% contact rate and a decent 8% walk rate. Additionally, as Schoop’s 6-2 185lbs body fills out, he projects to be a plus power hitter with 20 home run power. While he stole 12 bases in 2011, don’t look for this to continue, particularly as he fills out.
52. Oscar Taveres – OF (St. Louis Cardinals)
Taveras has a great lefty hit-tool with a quick level swing that barrels the ball. While he has a very aggressive swing, he doesn't strike-out a lot. He currently has gap to gap power that should translate into 15-20 home run power at full development. The open question for the young Taveras…will a .300 average with 15-20 home run potential be enough to stick at a corner outfield or does this profile as a fourth outfielder? Remember, Taveres was one of the youngest players in Low-A and was the second youngest player to be invited to the 2011 Arizona Fall League.
53. Randall Delgado – RHP (Atlanta Braves)
With the big three pitching prospects in Atlanta all having their chance at the major leagues in 2011, it was Randall Delgado that pitched the best. At 6-3 and 200lbs, Delgado has the body type at full maturity that should allow him to log big innings in the majors. His stuff is very good as he throws a low to mid 90’s fastball to go along with a plus curve ball. His control projects to be above average, although he does struggle with his mechanics as is evidence by his 135K/57BB strikeout to walk ratio.
54. Jake Odorizzi – RHP (Kansas City Royals)
With many of the elite Kansas City prospects graduating in 2011 and some others playing poorly, Jake Odorizzi has moved up dramatically. Odorizzi is extremely athletic and posses a 92-94MPH fastball with nice late movement that allows him to pitch up in the zone. His curveball and change-up are improving and both project to be above average offerings.
55. Francisco Lindor – SS (Cleveland Indians)
In the 2011 draft, few high-school players created more late buzz than Francisco Lindor. At first it was all about his glove which projects to be plus with the ability to stay at shortstop. However, as he continued with private workouts, teams got excited about his offensive ability, particularly his ability to drive balls to all fields. Reports out of the Fall instructional league continue to be very bullish on the 17-year old with some comparing him to Jurikson Profar.
56. Nick Franklin –SS (Seattle Mariners)
At 6-1 and 170 lbs, Nick Franklin doesn’t look like a guy that can hit 20 home runs. However, in 2010 he hit 23 home runs and while he regressed to just seven in 2011, scouts believe in the power. While Franklin is an aggressive hitter, he still managed to make contact 78% of the time in 2011. The big concern is will he stay at shortstop? Many scouts believe that a move to second base will eventually occur and for the Mariners, that could cause problems as that position is currently occupied by Dustin Ackley.
57. Trevor May – RHP (Philadelphia Phillies)
The once loaded Philadelphia Phillies minor league system has become quickly barren as several major trades over the past two years were made to bolster their major league club. There are still several blue chip prospects including Trevor May, the 4th round draft choice in the 2008 draft. May has a pro body at 6-5 and 215 lbs and has swing and miss stuff as demonstrated by his 208 strikeouts in 151.1 innings in High-A. His fastball sits in the low 90’s but because of the downhill plane, will play up. He secondary pitches are improving, most notably his curve. The command still needs improvement and as with most young pitchers, will determine the speed in which he makes it to the big leagues.
58. Jarred Cosart – RHP (Houston Astros)
Jarred Cosart became more of a household name after his impressive showing in the 2011 Futures Game. In fact, that performance went a long way to him being included in the trade that sent Hunter Pence to the Phillies. While the stuff appears to be there, the results are not. In 2011, across High-A and Double-A, Cosart struck out 101 batters in 144.1 innings while walking 56. Additionally, his mechanics are not clean as he throws across his body and has significant scapular loading. Candidly, I’m not buying the package just yet and have dropped his ranking considerably from last year.
59. Archie Bradley – RHP (Arizona Diamondbacks)
While a lot of the high-school pitching hype in the 2011 draft was around Dylan Bundy, many scouts believe Archie Bradley’s upside is as good if not better. Bradley has a pro body at 6-4 and 225lbs and can light up a gun by throwing in the upper 90’s and even tapping out in triple digits. He already posses a nasty curve that when combined with fastball should result in a lot of swing and misses. Expect Bradley to start out in Low-A next year and move quickly.
60. Tim Wheeler OF (Colorado Rockies)
Taken in the first round in 2009, Tim Wheeler played poorly in 2010, hitting only .249 in the hitter friendly confines of Modesto in the CAL league. He’s turned that around in 2011 by slamming 33 home runs and batting .287 in Double-A Tulsa. His .287 average is being supported by a fairly high BABIP but when taken all together, there’s a lot to like with Wheeler.
61. Rymer Liriano – OF (San Diego Padres)
If you rate Rymer Liriano’s on his April performance, it was a failure as he flat out didn’t hit in High-A going 7 for 55. Granted it was a small sample size, but the Padres decided to move him back to Low-A where he finished 2010 (where candidly he didn’t play great) and subsequently blew-up, taking home MVP honors. Liriano has quick strong hands that allow him to move quickly through the zone and produce decent power. In 2011, he had an 80% contract rate, an 11% walk rate to go along with 12 home runs. But Liriano is really about speed, stealing 65 bases in 85 attempts in Low-A.
62. Xander Bogaerts – 2B/3B (Boston Red Sox)
The scouting reports on Xander Boagaerts are glowing. Strong hands, quick bat with power potential. As an 18-year in the Low-A SAL League, Bogaerts showed an aggressive style by striking out 71 times in 265 at bats but hit an impressive 16 home runs. Scouts also talk about his make-up and believe he will quickly figure out the strike zone and could develop into a plus hit tool. The big question is his position. He’s currently playing shortstop but will either move to 2B or 3B next year.
63. Casey Kelly – RHP (San Diego Padres)
Drafted as a pitcher/shortstop by Boston in the first round of the 2008 draft, it didn’t take long for Kelly to realize that the bump was going to be his home. Kelly has a nice arsenal with the ability to throw his fastball in the low 90’s and hit 95. He’s got an above average curve and a plus change-up. The pitchability is not yet there as the results are underwhelming based on the stuff (105K/46BB in 142.1 innings). For fantasy players, the move to Petco will increase his value.
64. Billy Hamilton – SS (Cincinnati Reds)
Billy Hamilton stole 103 bases last year. Let that settle in for a moment. We are talking game changing speed ala Vince Coleman of the 1980’s St. Louis Cardinals. If you’ve not seen Hamilton, he is rail thin and that is what has everyone nervous. The big question is will he be able to stand in there against hard throwers as he moves to the upper minors? While he strikes out a lot (26% strikeout rate), he did barrel the ball more as the season wore on, even hitting 18 doubles along the way. With his crazy speed, Hamilton might be the most intriguing prospect in all of baseball, particularly if you are a fantasy player.
65. Kotlen Wong – 2B (St. Louis Cardinals)
Second baseman are generally not born but are instead made as a result of the inability to play shortstop or sometimes third base. So it’s rare that a pure 2B gets drafted, but that is what the World Champion Cardinals did with Kolten Wong in the 2011 draft. Wong signed quickly and took advantage of his 194 at bats in the MidWest league, batting .335 with an impressive 24K/20BB ratio. He also contributed 5 home runs but with his strong wrist and quick swing, projects to have 15-20 home run power. While he doesn’t have blazing speed, he should be able to steal 20 bases as well.
66. Christian Yelich – OF (Miami Marlins)
Drafted out of high school in the first round of the 2011 draft, Christian Yelich is already showing a great approach at the plate with speed and surprising power. In Low-A, Yelich batted .312 with a 102K/55B rate in 461 at bats. While the strikeouts are a little high, it’s not bad for a teenager’s first foray into professional ball. The 32 stolen bases out of 37 shows elite stolen bases ability and the 15 home runs are also encouraging.
67. Anthony Gose – OF (Toronto Blue Jays)
Gose is another in a long-line of toolsy players that is learning how to hit...but boy are the tools good. In Double-A, Gose stole 70 bases and hit 16 home runs but struck out 154 times in 509 AB’s. Unless Gose can improve the hit tool, his staying power, no matter how good the tools are, will be difficult.
68. Will Middlebrook – 3B (Boston Red Sox)
Will Middlebrooks is a big strong athletic player at 6-4 and 200lbs with above average bat speed and power to all fields. His strikeouts were high in Double-A with 95 K’s in 371 at-bats, which if not corrected will cause concerns as he moves into Triple-A with a potential call-up to the Red Sox in September of 2012.
69. Nick Castellanos -3B (Detroit Tigers)
Signed in the supplemental round in the 2010 draft for an aggressive $3.45M signing bonus, Nick Castellanos showed the plate approach that the Tigers envisioned. In 507 at bats in Low-A, he struck out 130 times and walked 45 times. Given his size at 6-4, most believe that as Castellanos fills out, his power will increase to 20-25 home runs.
70. Brett Jackson –OF (Chicago Cubs)
The Cubs drafted Brett Jackson in the first round of the 2009 draft and saw a power/speed guy that could be a first division starter. So far, he’s demonstrated the speed and power as was evidence by his 2011 production. Across Double-A and Triple-A in 2011, he hit 21 home runs and stole 20 bases. So why is he sitting at #70? I just don’t believe in the hit tool. There’s a lot of swing and miss in his stroke as he has a definitive two stage swing. Until he adjusts the swing to make better contact, the 20/20 production will come with a lot of batting average downside.
71. Oswaldo Arcia – OF (Minnesota Twins)
Signed out of Venezuela at the ripe old age of 16, Oswaldo Arcia is starting to produce on the promise. Arcia has great bat speed combined with plus power. Elbow surgery did slow Arcia’s progression in 2011 but he was still able to put up 13 home runs in 292 at bats across Low-A and High-A. He should return to High-A to start 2012 and assuming there is no lingering problems from the elbow, he could be poised for a real breakout.
72. Corey Spangenberg – 2B (San Diego Padres)
Corey Spangenberg was taken with the #10 pick in the 2011 draft, signed quickly and then tore up the Northwest league in 84 limited at bats. His plus-speed was on full display as he managed to steal 10 bases across that span. Spangenberg projects to have a plus hit tool with a .300 average not out of the question. He makes great contact and has a great eye at the plate.
73. Cheslor Cuthbert – 3B (Kansas City Royals)
Cheslor Cuthbert was one of the youngest players in the MidWest league during 2011 season at 18 years old. He posses a lot of strength and bat speed, showing an advance approach at the plate that should project to an above average hit tool and power tool. While he played very well in the first half, he did play poorly in the second half. Was he simply tired or was there something else going on?
74. A.J. Cole – RHP (Washington Nationals)
If you look at the 4.04 ERA and 1.24 WHIP from A.J. Cole, you’re looking in the wrong place. In 89.0 innings in Low-A in 2011, Cole had 108 strikeouts in 89.0 innings and only 24 walks. Drafted in the fourth round in 2010 to a large $2M signing bonus, A.J. Cole’s velocity increased as the season wore on to sit 94-95MPH with obvious command and the ability to cut or sink the ball. His curve is inconsistent but the Nats are confident that he can spin it. With a major league body and projection at 6-4 and 180, you need to keep your eye on A.J. Cole as he moves to High-A in 2012.
75. Drew Hutchinson – RHP (Toronto Blue Jays)
Drew Hutchinson was one of the more impressive pitchers in the Toronto Blue Jays system, progressing through three levels (Low-A, High-A, and Double-A) while striking out an impressive 171 batters in 149.1 and walking only 35. Part of the success comes through a deceptive delivery as his stuff is good but not great. He has an 89-93 fastball, through deception, explodes and sinks (1.33 GO/AO) when it gets to the plate. His change-up is also above average but the curve still needs work as it has a tendency to get slurvy.
Once again, Markus Potter and I will be doing a special podcast on BlogTalkradio, Wednesday, December 28th at 9pm EST. http://tinyurl.com/cwv2jjt . This broadcast is on the same feed as our weekly Fantasy Baseball show, which airs every Sunday at 10pm and is the #1 Sports Show on BTR.
51. Jonathan Schoop – 2B (Baltimore Orioles)
Many people are starting to call Jonathan Schoop a poor man’s Manny Machado. While Machado is ranked well ahead of Schoop, as Schoop continues to mature, the comp is starting to make a lot of sense. Schoop progressed to High-A as a 19-year old and showed a nice batting approach with an 85% contact rate and a decent 8% walk rate. Additionally, as Schoop’s 6-2 185lbs body fills out, he projects to be a plus power hitter with 20 home run power. While he stole 12 bases in 2011, don’t look for this to continue, particularly as he fills out.
52. Oscar Taveres – OF (St. Louis Cardinals)
Taveras has a great lefty hit-tool with a quick level swing that barrels the ball. While he has a very aggressive swing, he doesn't strike-out a lot. He currently has gap to gap power that should translate into 15-20 home run power at full development. The open question for the young Taveras…will a .300 average with 15-20 home run potential be enough to stick at a corner outfield or does this profile as a fourth outfielder? Remember, Taveres was one of the youngest players in Low-A and was the second youngest player to be invited to the 2011 Arizona Fall League.
53. Randall Delgado – RHP (Atlanta Braves)
With the big three pitching prospects in Atlanta all having their chance at the major leagues in 2011, it was Randall Delgado that pitched the best. At 6-3 and 200lbs, Delgado has the body type at full maturity that should allow him to log big innings in the majors. His stuff is very good as he throws a low to mid 90’s fastball to go along with a plus curve ball. His control projects to be above average, although he does struggle with his mechanics as is evidence by his 135K/57BB strikeout to walk ratio.
54. Jake Odorizzi – RHP (Kansas City Royals)
With many of the elite Kansas City prospects graduating in 2011 and some others playing poorly, Jake Odorizzi has moved up dramatically. Odorizzi is extremely athletic and posses a 92-94MPH fastball with nice late movement that allows him to pitch up in the zone. His curveball and change-up are improving and both project to be above average offerings.
55. Francisco Lindor – SS (Cleveland Indians)
In the 2011 draft, few high-school players created more late buzz than Francisco Lindor. At first it was all about his glove which projects to be plus with the ability to stay at shortstop. However, as he continued with private workouts, teams got excited about his offensive ability, particularly his ability to drive balls to all fields. Reports out of the Fall instructional league continue to be very bullish on the 17-year old with some comparing him to Jurikson Profar.
56. Nick Franklin –SS (Seattle Mariners)
At 6-1 and 170 lbs, Nick Franklin doesn’t look like a guy that can hit 20 home runs. However, in 2010 he hit 23 home runs and while he regressed to just seven in 2011, scouts believe in the power. While Franklin is an aggressive hitter, he still managed to make contact 78% of the time in 2011. The big concern is will he stay at shortstop? Many scouts believe that a move to second base will eventually occur and for the Mariners, that could cause problems as that position is currently occupied by Dustin Ackley.
57. Trevor May – RHP (Philadelphia Phillies)
The once loaded Philadelphia Phillies minor league system has become quickly barren as several major trades over the past two years were made to bolster their major league club. There are still several blue chip prospects including Trevor May, the 4th round draft choice in the 2008 draft. May has a pro body at 6-5 and 215 lbs and has swing and miss stuff as demonstrated by his 208 strikeouts in 151.1 innings in High-A. His fastball sits in the low 90’s but because of the downhill plane, will play up. He secondary pitches are improving, most notably his curve. The command still needs improvement and as with most young pitchers, will determine the speed in which he makes it to the big leagues.
58. Jarred Cosart – RHP (Houston Astros)
Jarred Cosart became more of a household name after his impressive showing in the 2011 Futures Game. In fact, that performance went a long way to him being included in the trade that sent Hunter Pence to the Phillies. While the stuff appears to be there, the results are not. In 2011, across High-A and Double-A, Cosart struck out 101 batters in 144.1 innings while walking 56. Additionally, his mechanics are not clean as he throws across his body and has significant scapular loading. Candidly, I’m not buying the package just yet and have dropped his ranking considerably from last year.
59. Archie Bradley – RHP (Arizona Diamondbacks)
While a lot of the high-school pitching hype in the 2011 draft was around Dylan Bundy, many scouts believe Archie Bradley’s upside is as good if not better. Bradley has a pro body at 6-4 and 225lbs and can light up a gun by throwing in the upper 90’s and even tapping out in triple digits. He already posses a nasty curve that when combined with fastball should result in a lot of swing and misses. Expect Bradley to start out in Low-A next year and move quickly.
60. Tim Wheeler OF (Colorado Rockies)
Taken in the first round in 2009, Tim Wheeler played poorly in 2010, hitting only .249 in the hitter friendly confines of Modesto in the CAL league. He’s turned that around in 2011 by slamming 33 home runs and batting .287 in Double-A Tulsa. His .287 average is being supported by a fairly high BABIP but when taken all together, there’s a lot to like with Wheeler.
61. Rymer Liriano – OF (San Diego Padres)
If you rate Rymer Liriano’s on his April performance, it was a failure as he flat out didn’t hit in High-A going 7 for 55. Granted it was a small sample size, but the Padres decided to move him back to Low-A where he finished 2010 (where candidly he didn’t play great) and subsequently blew-up, taking home MVP honors. Liriano has quick strong hands that allow him to move quickly through the zone and produce decent power. In 2011, he had an 80% contract rate, an 11% walk rate to go along with 12 home runs. But Liriano is really about speed, stealing 65 bases in 85 attempts in Low-A.
62. Xander Bogaerts – 2B/3B (Boston Red Sox)
The scouting reports on Xander Boagaerts are glowing. Strong hands, quick bat with power potential. As an 18-year in the Low-A SAL League, Bogaerts showed an aggressive style by striking out 71 times in 265 at bats but hit an impressive 16 home runs. Scouts also talk about his make-up and believe he will quickly figure out the strike zone and could develop into a plus hit tool. The big question is his position. He’s currently playing shortstop but will either move to 2B or 3B next year.
63. Casey Kelly – RHP (San Diego Padres)
Drafted as a pitcher/shortstop by Boston in the first round of the 2008 draft, it didn’t take long for Kelly to realize that the bump was going to be his home. Kelly has a nice arsenal with the ability to throw his fastball in the low 90’s and hit 95. He’s got an above average curve and a plus change-up. The pitchability is not yet there as the results are underwhelming based on the stuff (105K/46BB in 142.1 innings). For fantasy players, the move to Petco will increase his value.
64. Billy Hamilton – SS (Cincinnati Reds)
Billy Hamilton stole 103 bases last year. Let that settle in for a moment. We are talking game changing speed ala Vince Coleman of the 1980’s St. Louis Cardinals. If you’ve not seen Hamilton, he is rail thin and that is what has everyone nervous. The big question is will he be able to stand in there against hard throwers as he moves to the upper minors? While he strikes out a lot (26% strikeout rate), he did barrel the ball more as the season wore on, even hitting 18 doubles along the way. With his crazy speed, Hamilton might be the most intriguing prospect in all of baseball, particularly if you are a fantasy player.
65. Kotlen Wong – 2B (St. Louis Cardinals)
Second baseman are generally not born but are instead made as a result of the inability to play shortstop or sometimes third base. So it’s rare that a pure 2B gets drafted, but that is what the World Champion Cardinals did with Kolten Wong in the 2011 draft. Wong signed quickly and took advantage of his 194 at bats in the MidWest league, batting .335 with an impressive 24K/20BB ratio. He also contributed 5 home runs but with his strong wrist and quick swing, projects to have 15-20 home run power. While he doesn’t have blazing speed, he should be able to steal 20 bases as well.
66. Christian Yelich – OF (Miami Marlins)
Drafted out of high school in the first round of the 2011 draft, Christian Yelich is already showing a great approach at the plate with speed and surprising power. In Low-A, Yelich batted .312 with a 102K/55B rate in 461 at bats. While the strikeouts are a little high, it’s not bad for a teenager’s first foray into professional ball. The 32 stolen bases out of 37 shows elite stolen bases ability and the 15 home runs are also encouraging.
67. Anthony Gose – OF (Toronto Blue Jays)
Gose is another in a long-line of toolsy players that is learning how to hit...but boy are the tools good. In Double-A, Gose stole 70 bases and hit 16 home runs but struck out 154 times in 509 AB’s. Unless Gose can improve the hit tool, his staying power, no matter how good the tools are, will be difficult.
68. Will Middlebrook – 3B (Boston Red Sox)
Will Middlebrooks is a big strong athletic player at 6-4 and 200lbs with above average bat speed and power to all fields. His strikeouts were high in Double-A with 95 K’s in 371 at-bats, which if not corrected will cause concerns as he moves into Triple-A with a potential call-up to the Red Sox in September of 2012.
69. Nick Castellanos -3B (Detroit Tigers)
Signed in the supplemental round in the 2010 draft for an aggressive $3.45M signing bonus, Nick Castellanos showed the plate approach that the Tigers envisioned. In 507 at bats in Low-A, he struck out 130 times and walked 45 times. Given his size at 6-4, most believe that as Castellanos fills out, his power will increase to 20-25 home runs.
70. Brett Jackson –OF (Chicago Cubs)
The Cubs drafted Brett Jackson in the first round of the 2009 draft and saw a power/speed guy that could be a first division starter. So far, he’s demonstrated the speed and power as was evidence by his 2011 production. Across Double-A and Triple-A in 2011, he hit 21 home runs and stole 20 bases. So why is he sitting at #70? I just don’t believe in the hit tool. There’s a lot of swing and miss in his stroke as he has a definitive two stage swing. Until he adjusts the swing to make better contact, the 20/20 production will come with a lot of batting average downside.
71. Oswaldo Arcia – OF (Minnesota Twins)
Signed out of Venezuela at the ripe old age of 16, Oswaldo Arcia is starting to produce on the promise. Arcia has great bat speed combined with plus power. Elbow surgery did slow Arcia’s progression in 2011 but he was still able to put up 13 home runs in 292 at bats across Low-A and High-A. He should return to High-A to start 2012 and assuming there is no lingering problems from the elbow, he could be poised for a real breakout.
72. Corey Spangenberg – 2B (San Diego Padres)
Corey Spangenberg was taken with the #10 pick in the 2011 draft, signed quickly and then tore up the Northwest league in 84 limited at bats. His plus-speed was on full display as he managed to steal 10 bases across that span. Spangenberg projects to have a plus hit tool with a .300 average not out of the question. He makes great contact and has a great eye at the plate.
73. Cheslor Cuthbert – 3B (Kansas City Royals)
Cheslor Cuthbert was one of the youngest players in the MidWest league during 2011 season at 18 years old. He posses a lot of strength and bat speed, showing an advance approach at the plate that should project to an above average hit tool and power tool. While he played very well in the first half, he did play poorly in the second half. Was he simply tired or was there something else going on?
74. A.J. Cole – RHP (Washington Nationals)
If you look at the 4.04 ERA and 1.24 WHIP from A.J. Cole, you’re looking in the wrong place. In 89.0 innings in Low-A in 2011, Cole had 108 strikeouts in 89.0 innings and only 24 walks. Drafted in the fourth round in 2010 to a large $2M signing bonus, A.J. Cole’s velocity increased as the season wore on to sit 94-95MPH with obvious command and the ability to cut or sink the ball. His curve is inconsistent but the Nats are confident that he can spin it. With a major league body and projection at 6-4 and 180, you need to keep your eye on A.J. Cole as he moves to High-A in 2012.
75. Drew Hutchinson – RHP (Toronto Blue Jays)
Drew Hutchinson was one of the more impressive pitchers in the Toronto Blue Jays system, progressing through three levels (Low-A, High-A, and Double-A) while striking out an impressive 171 batters in 149.1 and walking only 35. Part of the success comes through a deceptive delivery as his stuff is good but not great. He has an 89-93 fastball, through deception, explodes and sinks (1.33 GO/AO) when it gets to the plate. His change-up is also above average but the curve still needs work as it has a tendency to get slurvy.
Saturday, December 10, 2011
2012 Top 100 Prospects - #76 - #101
Today marks the beginning of my 2012 Top 101 prospects review. In this post, we'll be looking at prospects #101 to #76. Additionally, I'll be doing a special podcast on Monday, December 12th at 9pm to discuss - http://tinyurl.com/bshy6e3.
76. Bryce Brentz – OF (Boston Red Sox)
Drafted in the Supplement Round of the 2010 draft, Bryce Brentz’s calling card is his plus-plus raw power. Across Low-A and High-A in 2011, Brentz belted 30 home runs but did have some contact problems (75%) as his swing will get long as he tries to muscle up. 2012 will be an important year for Brentz as he moves to Double-A and more advanced pitching.
77. John Lamb – LHP (Kansas City Royals)
John Lamb, Danny Duffy, and Mike Montgomery were the lefties of the future for the Kansas Royals. Duffy made it to the show and had limited success, Montgomery lost his command and Lamb had Tommy John Surgery. Best laid plans… While there is now considerable risk placed on John Lamb as not everyone recovers from TJS, the talent is still there. His fastball sits at 92-94MPH with above average control and command and his curve and change-up both flash plus. Three above average pitches with above average command? I’ll take it, TJS or not.
78. Grant Green – SS/OF (Oakland A’s)
Drafted as a shortstop, moved to second, and now it appears he will make his way to the majors as an outfielder. Grant Green is a nice athletic player with an upside of a solid regular. Fans in particular got excited in 2010 when he hit 20 home runs in the California league, but for many young players, the power leaves upon promotion to Double-A. I would look for a .270 player with 10-15 home run power and 10 stolen bases.
79. Jedd Gyorko – 3B (San Diego Padres)
When you first see Jedd Gyorko, you don’t think, “WOW, that guy looks like a ballplayer?????” Short and squat at 5-10 and 195 lbs, Jedd Gyorko posses a great hit tool with nice bat speed and above average power potential. In 2011, he had an excellent 80% contact rate and an 11% walk rate. Based on his lack of athleticism, Gyorko may eventually move to a corner outfield spot. While he demonstrated power in the hitter friendly CAL league, the home runs didn't follow him to Double-A.
80. Sonny Gray – RHP (Oakland A’s)
Sonny Gray is not a physically imposing pitcher, standing only 5-10 and weighing a nice squatty 200lbs. He is though a strikeout pitcher due to his plus power curve that is clearly a swing and miss pitch. He was able to get 22 innings in professional ball during 2011, primarily in Double-A and was impressive, striking out 20 battings and walking only 6. Look for Gray to start 2012 in Double-A with a potential September call-up.
81. Derek Norris – C (Washington Nationals)
Derek Norris appears to be your prototypical young catcher working his way to the majors. He has power as is evidence by his 20 home runs in Double-A in 2011 but he also struck out 117 times in 339 at bats. I’ll save you the trouble of running for your calculator, that’s a 65% contact rate. What might set him apart and make him a solid regular major leaguer is he’s a walk machine. Last year, he had a walk rate of 20% and in 2010, his walk rate was a ridiculous 30%.
82. Mason Williams – OF (New York Yankees)
Signed as a $1.45M overslot 4th round draftee in the 2010 draft, Mason Williams was one of the poster children for Bud Selig’s clamp down on draft spending. The early results are showing that Williams was well worth the money. With plus-plus speed and very good defensive centerfield skills, the Yankees revamped his swing to increase the time through the zone in order to drive more pitches. The results in 2011 were encouraging. In 289 at bats in the NY Penn league, Williams batted .349 with a decent .468 SLG while striking out only 41 times and walking 20 times. Oh yeah, he stole 28 bases.
83. Matt Szczur – OF (Chicago Cubs)
In 2010, Szczur picked baseball over football as he signed a complicated deal with the Cubs. When drafted, scouts knew Szczur had plus-plus speed but worried that he would hit enough. In 2011, that was not a problem as he batted .293 across Low-A in High-A to go along with 24 stolen bases. His contact rate was nearly 90% but his walk rate was a paltry 6%. He’s a bit of a slappy hitter, so don’t expect a lot of power once fully developed.
84. Zack Cox – 3B (St. Louis Cardinals)
Drafted as a first rounder in the 2010 draft, Cox signed for an impressive $3M signing bonus based on his hit tool. The hit tool did not fail in his first year of professional ball, batting .306 across High-A and Double-A with a 98K/40BB in 516 at bats. The concern when he came out of college was his ability to hit for power. In High-A, he hit only three home runs in the cavernous Florida State League but upon promotion to the more hitter friendly Texas League, he hit 10 bombs. With little speed and average defensive skills, Cox will need to develop some pop in order to be viewed as a first division starter.
85. Allen Webster – RHP (Los Angeles Dodgers)
At 21 years-old, Allen Webster is already deemed to be a very polished pitcher with a 92-94MPH fastball with heavy sink that produced a very high number of ground ball outs (1.76 GO/AO in 2011). He has a plus change-up with an improving curve and a great strikeout rate of 135K in 145 innings. With his stuff and command, it was surprising that he gave up a 101 hits in 90 innings in Double-A. Should we chalked it up to a very unlucky BABIP or is his stuff just hittable to more advanced hitters?
86. Nate Eovaldi - RHP (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Nate Eovaldi had Tommy John surgery in his junior year of high school and that scared many teams off from signing him. The Dodgers took the plunge in the 11th round and have been rewarded as Eovaldi made his major league debut at the ripe old age of 21. He wasn’t overly effective as he walked 20 in 35 innings but his stuff and minor league track record predict a promising future. Eovaldi throws a heavy 92-93MPH two-seam fastball hitting higher and causing lots of ground balls (GO/AO of 1.49). His curveball is above average and even flashes plus, while his change-up is still pretty fringy. While he might have been rushed, there’s a lot to like here.
87. George Springer – OF (Houston Astros)
After Anthony Rendon, many scouts considered George Springer to be the best college positional bat in the 2011 draft. He has a nice combination of power and speed but his swing can get a little long and is therefore prone to strikeout a lot. Scouts do love his make-up, so he should take instruction well and hopefully correct both his erratic approach and propensity to strikeout. While there is huge upside in Springer, it doesn’t come free.
88. Josh Bell – OF (Pittsburgh Pirates)
Josh Bell had everyone convinced that he was going to the University of Texas to play on a partial scholarship for three years. However, a $5M signing bonus plus a fund set aside to pay for four years at a University down the road goes a long way. Bell is blessed with tremendous physical gifts, including a lot of natural raw power and the ability to make hard contact. He is an older high school player and will actually turn 20 during his first year of pro ball but is also relatively advanced for most players coming directly from high school to professional ball.
89. Josh Vitters – 3B (Chicago Cubs)
Taken #3 overall in the 2007 draft, Josh Vitters continues to confound everybody in baseball. He has one of the best right-handed strokes in any level of professional baseball, but his approach is one of the worse. Without changes, Vitters will never become the elite player that the Cubs thought they drafted. Make-up is an overused phrase, but in my mind, a player who is unwilling to take instruction and continue to believe he has all the answers is the definition of bad make-up. Most thought last year was the make it or break it year, I’m giving it one more year.
90. Robbie Erlin – LHP (San Diego Padres)
If you look only at stats, Robbie Erlin looks like the best pitcher in the minors. In 2011, across High-A and Double-A, he struck out 154 batters in 147.1 innings while only walking 16. You know you have good control when you can name the guys you walked! The fastball is only average at 88-91MPH but since he throws strikes, he gets ahead of batters and puts them away with two plus secondary pitches -a nasty curve and even better change-up. The move to San Deigo is what has gotten me excited as I believe that profile will play well in the Petco Park and the poor offensive environment of the NL West.
91. Addison Reed – RHP (Chicago White Sox)
It’s a little frightening when the best prospect in an MLB organization is a relief pitcher, but that is the sad case with the Chicago White Sox and years of playing by the slot recommendation of Major League Baseball. That said, Addison Reed is a very good pitcher. With the ability to throw in the upper 90’s with a nasty slider and also an above average change-up, Reed could eventually profile as a starter but most scouts believe he will be most effective as an “all-out” late inning reliever. Don’t be shocked if Addison Reed becomes the White Sox closer as early as 2012, he’s that good.
92. Matt Davidson – 3B (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Drafted in the supplemental round of the 2009 draft, Matt Davidson brings a combination of a quick bat with a nice approach to the plate that should enable him to become a solid regular third baseman in the big leagues. In 2011 in High-A, Davidson hit 20 home runs but did strikeout an alarming 147 times in 535. Given his quick power stroke, this is hopefully more of being overly aggressive as opposed to have a flaw in his swing. Expect Davidson to start 2012 in Double-A.
93. Tyrell Jenkins – RHP (St. Louis Cardinals)
St. Louis is stacked with elite pitching prospects and while Tyrell Jenkins might be one of the lesser known pitching prospects, his stuff and athleticism are as good as anyone in the system. Jenkins was taken in the Supplemental Round of the 2010 draft with a $1.3M signing bonus to lure him away from Baylor as a wide receiver. Jenkins sits 93-96MPH with a tight 12-6 curve and an emerging change-up. He’ll move to full season ball next year at Low-A, where more fans will get a chance to see what all the excitement is about.
94. Joe Wieland – RHP (San Diego Padres)
Wieland was the other finesse pitcher in the Mike Adams trade at the 2011 trading deadline. His fastball ranges in the 88-92MPH range with a big breaking curve. His average change-up completes the arsenal. The results in 2011 across High-A and Double A were extremely impressive with 150 strikeouts in 155.2 inning with only 21 walks. As with Robbie Erlin, high control and command pitchers with average to above average stuff can play very well in Petco and the NL West.
95. Alex Meyer – RHP (Washington Nationals)
Alex Meyer is a high risk/high reward prospect. Taken as the 23rd pick in the 2011 draft, Meyer has great stuff with a plus 94-96MPH explosive fastball to go along with a plus-plus slider with late life and tilt. The problem is the control and at 6-9, he’s got a tough job ahead of him. In fact, many scouts don’t believe his control will ever get above average and that could eventually force him to the bullpen. His stuff is elite but whether he can harness and control the stuff is where the risk exists.
96. Starling Marte – OF (Pittsburgh Pirates)
I’m not sold on Starling Marte. On the positive side, he’s got plus-plus speed that translates into speed on the base path as well as excellent range in the outfield. In fact, he’s a joy to watch in the outfield, seemingly able to catch anything hit near him. The problem is an overly aggressive approach at the plate. Marte swings at everything, walking 22 times in 536 at bats in Double-A. Fortunately he does make contact and with his speed, has a chance to reach base frequently. Throw in some above average power and Marte has a chance to be a star if he can just temper his overly aggressive approach at the plate.
97. Justin Nicolino – LHP (Toronto Blue Jays)
Justin Nicolino was the best pitcher in the Northwest League in 2011 with a 64K/11B over 52 innings. Nicolino was drafted in the second round of the 2010 draft and at 19 years old, has a nice three pitch arsenal that includes a 90-92MPH fastball with a lot of sink (1.44 GO/AO rate). He’ll pick up where he left off in Low-A to start the 2012 season. With his maturity and arsenal, a mid season promotion to High-A seems reasonable.
98. Chad Bettis – RHP (Colorado Rockies)
Bettis was taken in the second round of the 2010 draft out of Texas Tech University. He has plus velocity, sitting 93-94 and touching higher. His secondary pitches are ok but still need work with an above average curve and a below average change-up. He pitched the entire 2011 season in the hitter friendly California league and dominated, striking out 184 in 169.2 and walking only 45. They key will be the development of his change-up. If it progresses, he could be a solid #3 with #2 upside. If not, he has a chance to be a late inning reliever.
99. Jed Bradley – LHP (Milwaukee Brewers)
Taken with the #15 pick in the 2011 amateur draft, Bradley is a power lefty with a major league frame at 6-4 and 225 lbs. His fastball sits at 88-94MPH with sink; which is a broad range and therefore shows some inconsistencies. He also has a plus slider and his change-up is decent for a college pitcher, but will need to improve. Scouts love his makeup and believe he will quickly advance through the system.
100. Javier Baez – SS (Chicago Cubs)
One of the better high school positional prospects in the 2011 draft, Javier Baez has a very quick bat with plus raw power. While he was drafted as a shortstop, most scouts believe he will outgrow the position and will have to move to 3B. He got very high marks in the Arizona Instructional League, which is good as the big black mark against Baez was a questionable make-up.
101. Luis Heredia – RHP (Pittsburgh Pirates)
Luis Heredia fits the profile of a #101 ranking in a Top 100 list – a kid who has sky high potential but with tremendous risk. Heredia who hails from Mexico, signed one of the largest international bonuses at $2.6M in 2010 for Pittsburgh. He’s a big kid at 6-6 and 205lbs and has an electric fastball that can flash in the upper 90’s. He’s already proven an ability to spin a curve and his change-up has flashed plus potential. Ignore the stats in the Gulf league because at 16-years old, what can you really expect? Next year, Heredia could be a legitimate Top 50 prospect or be put in the bucket of woulda/coulda.
76. Bryce Brentz – OF (Boston Red Sox)
Drafted in the Supplement Round of the 2010 draft, Bryce Brentz’s calling card is his plus-plus raw power. Across Low-A and High-A in 2011, Brentz belted 30 home runs but did have some contact problems (75%) as his swing will get long as he tries to muscle up. 2012 will be an important year for Brentz as he moves to Double-A and more advanced pitching.
77. John Lamb – LHP (Kansas City Royals)
John Lamb, Danny Duffy, and Mike Montgomery were the lefties of the future for the Kansas Royals. Duffy made it to the show and had limited success, Montgomery lost his command and Lamb had Tommy John Surgery. Best laid plans… While there is now considerable risk placed on John Lamb as not everyone recovers from TJS, the talent is still there. His fastball sits at 92-94MPH with above average control and command and his curve and change-up both flash plus. Three above average pitches with above average command? I’ll take it, TJS or not.
78. Grant Green – SS/OF (Oakland A’s)
Drafted as a shortstop, moved to second, and now it appears he will make his way to the majors as an outfielder. Grant Green is a nice athletic player with an upside of a solid regular. Fans in particular got excited in 2010 when he hit 20 home runs in the California league, but for many young players, the power leaves upon promotion to Double-A. I would look for a .270 player with 10-15 home run power and 10 stolen bases.
79. Jedd Gyorko – 3B (San Diego Padres)
When you first see Jedd Gyorko, you don’t think, “WOW, that guy looks like a ballplayer?????” Short and squat at 5-10 and 195 lbs, Jedd Gyorko posses a great hit tool with nice bat speed and above average power potential. In 2011, he had an excellent 80% contact rate and an 11% walk rate. Based on his lack of athleticism, Gyorko may eventually move to a corner outfield spot. While he demonstrated power in the hitter friendly CAL league, the home runs didn't follow him to Double-A.
80. Sonny Gray – RHP (Oakland A’s)
Sonny Gray is not a physically imposing pitcher, standing only 5-10 and weighing a nice squatty 200lbs. He is though a strikeout pitcher due to his plus power curve that is clearly a swing and miss pitch. He was able to get 22 innings in professional ball during 2011, primarily in Double-A and was impressive, striking out 20 battings and walking only 6. Look for Gray to start 2012 in Double-A with a potential September call-up.
81. Derek Norris – C (Washington Nationals)
Derek Norris appears to be your prototypical young catcher working his way to the majors. He has power as is evidence by his 20 home runs in Double-A in 2011 but he also struck out 117 times in 339 at bats. I’ll save you the trouble of running for your calculator, that’s a 65% contact rate. What might set him apart and make him a solid regular major leaguer is he’s a walk machine. Last year, he had a walk rate of 20% and in 2010, his walk rate was a ridiculous 30%.
82. Mason Williams – OF (New York Yankees)
Signed as a $1.45M overslot 4th round draftee in the 2010 draft, Mason Williams was one of the poster children for Bud Selig’s clamp down on draft spending. The early results are showing that Williams was well worth the money. With plus-plus speed and very good defensive centerfield skills, the Yankees revamped his swing to increase the time through the zone in order to drive more pitches. The results in 2011 were encouraging. In 289 at bats in the NY Penn league, Williams batted .349 with a decent .468 SLG while striking out only 41 times and walking 20 times. Oh yeah, he stole 28 bases.
83. Matt Szczur – OF (Chicago Cubs)
In 2010, Szczur picked baseball over football as he signed a complicated deal with the Cubs. When drafted, scouts knew Szczur had plus-plus speed but worried that he would hit enough. In 2011, that was not a problem as he batted .293 across Low-A in High-A to go along with 24 stolen bases. His contact rate was nearly 90% but his walk rate was a paltry 6%. He’s a bit of a slappy hitter, so don’t expect a lot of power once fully developed.
84. Zack Cox – 3B (St. Louis Cardinals)
Drafted as a first rounder in the 2010 draft, Cox signed for an impressive $3M signing bonus based on his hit tool. The hit tool did not fail in his first year of professional ball, batting .306 across High-A and Double-A with a 98K/40BB in 516 at bats. The concern when he came out of college was his ability to hit for power. In High-A, he hit only three home runs in the cavernous Florida State League but upon promotion to the more hitter friendly Texas League, he hit 10 bombs. With little speed and average defensive skills, Cox will need to develop some pop in order to be viewed as a first division starter.
85. Allen Webster – RHP (Los Angeles Dodgers)
At 21 years-old, Allen Webster is already deemed to be a very polished pitcher with a 92-94MPH fastball with heavy sink that produced a very high number of ground ball outs (1.76 GO/AO in 2011). He has a plus change-up with an improving curve and a great strikeout rate of 135K in 145 innings. With his stuff and command, it was surprising that he gave up a 101 hits in 90 innings in Double-A. Should we chalked it up to a very unlucky BABIP or is his stuff just hittable to more advanced hitters?
86. Nate Eovaldi - RHP (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Nate Eovaldi had Tommy John surgery in his junior year of high school and that scared many teams off from signing him. The Dodgers took the plunge in the 11th round and have been rewarded as Eovaldi made his major league debut at the ripe old age of 21. He wasn’t overly effective as he walked 20 in 35 innings but his stuff and minor league track record predict a promising future. Eovaldi throws a heavy 92-93MPH two-seam fastball hitting higher and causing lots of ground balls (GO/AO of 1.49). His curveball is above average and even flashes plus, while his change-up is still pretty fringy. While he might have been rushed, there’s a lot to like here.
87. George Springer – OF (Houston Astros)
After Anthony Rendon, many scouts considered George Springer to be the best college positional bat in the 2011 draft. He has a nice combination of power and speed but his swing can get a little long and is therefore prone to strikeout a lot. Scouts do love his make-up, so he should take instruction well and hopefully correct both his erratic approach and propensity to strikeout. While there is huge upside in Springer, it doesn’t come free.
88. Josh Bell – OF (Pittsburgh Pirates)
Josh Bell had everyone convinced that he was going to the University of Texas to play on a partial scholarship for three years. However, a $5M signing bonus plus a fund set aside to pay for four years at a University down the road goes a long way. Bell is blessed with tremendous physical gifts, including a lot of natural raw power and the ability to make hard contact. He is an older high school player and will actually turn 20 during his first year of pro ball but is also relatively advanced for most players coming directly from high school to professional ball.
89. Josh Vitters – 3B (Chicago Cubs)
Taken #3 overall in the 2007 draft, Josh Vitters continues to confound everybody in baseball. He has one of the best right-handed strokes in any level of professional baseball, but his approach is one of the worse. Without changes, Vitters will never become the elite player that the Cubs thought they drafted. Make-up is an overused phrase, but in my mind, a player who is unwilling to take instruction and continue to believe he has all the answers is the definition of bad make-up. Most thought last year was the make it or break it year, I’m giving it one more year.
90. Robbie Erlin – LHP (San Diego Padres)
If you look only at stats, Robbie Erlin looks like the best pitcher in the minors. In 2011, across High-A and Double-A, he struck out 154 batters in 147.1 innings while only walking 16. You know you have good control when you can name the guys you walked! The fastball is only average at 88-91MPH but since he throws strikes, he gets ahead of batters and puts them away with two plus secondary pitches -a nasty curve and even better change-up. The move to San Deigo is what has gotten me excited as I believe that profile will play well in the Petco Park and the poor offensive environment of the NL West.
91. Addison Reed – RHP (Chicago White Sox)
It’s a little frightening when the best prospect in an MLB organization is a relief pitcher, but that is the sad case with the Chicago White Sox and years of playing by the slot recommendation of Major League Baseball. That said, Addison Reed is a very good pitcher. With the ability to throw in the upper 90’s with a nasty slider and also an above average change-up, Reed could eventually profile as a starter but most scouts believe he will be most effective as an “all-out” late inning reliever. Don’t be shocked if Addison Reed becomes the White Sox closer as early as 2012, he’s that good.
92. Matt Davidson – 3B (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Drafted in the supplemental round of the 2009 draft, Matt Davidson brings a combination of a quick bat with a nice approach to the plate that should enable him to become a solid regular third baseman in the big leagues. In 2011 in High-A, Davidson hit 20 home runs but did strikeout an alarming 147 times in 535. Given his quick power stroke, this is hopefully more of being overly aggressive as opposed to have a flaw in his swing. Expect Davidson to start 2012 in Double-A.
93. Tyrell Jenkins – RHP (St. Louis Cardinals)
St. Louis is stacked with elite pitching prospects and while Tyrell Jenkins might be one of the lesser known pitching prospects, his stuff and athleticism are as good as anyone in the system. Jenkins was taken in the Supplemental Round of the 2010 draft with a $1.3M signing bonus to lure him away from Baylor as a wide receiver. Jenkins sits 93-96MPH with a tight 12-6 curve and an emerging change-up. He’ll move to full season ball next year at Low-A, where more fans will get a chance to see what all the excitement is about.
94. Joe Wieland – RHP (San Diego Padres)
Wieland was the other finesse pitcher in the Mike Adams trade at the 2011 trading deadline. His fastball ranges in the 88-92MPH range with a big breaking curve. His average change-up completes the arsenal. The results in 2011 across High-A and Double A were extremely impressive with 150 strikeouts in 155.2 inning with only 21 walks. As with Robbie Erlin, high control and command pitchers with average to above average stuff can play very well in Petco and the NL West.
95. Alex Meyer – RHP (Washington Nationals)
Alex Meyer is a high risk/high reward prospect. Taken as the 23rd pick in the 2011 draft, Meyer has great stuff with a plus 94-96MPH explosive fastball to go along with a plus-plus slider with late life and tilt. The problem is the control and at 6-9, he’s got a tough job ahead of him. In fact, many scouts don’t believe his control will ever get above average and that could eventually force him to the bullpen. His stuff is elite but whether he can harness and control the stuff is where the risk exists.
96. Starling Marte – OF (Pittsburgh Pirates)
I’m not sold on Starling Marte. On the positive side, he’s got plus-plus speed that translates into speed on the base path as well as excellent range in the outfield. In fact, he’s a joy to watch in the outfield, seemingly able to catch anything hit near him. The problem is an overly aggressive approach at the plate. Marte swings at everything, walking 22 times in 536 at bats in Double-A. Fortunately he does make contact and with his speed, has a chance to reach base frequently. Throw in some above average power and Marte has a chance to be a star if he can just temper his overly aggressive approach at the plate.
97. Justin Nicolino – LHP (Toronto Blue Jays)
Justin Nicolino was the best pitcher in the Northwest League in 2011 with a 64K/11B over 52 innings. Nicolino was drafted in the second round of the 2010 draft and at 19 years old, has a nice three pitch arsenal that includes a 90-92MPH fastball with a lot of sink (1.44 GO/AO rate). He’ll pick up where he left off in Low-A to start the 2012 season. With his maturity and arsenal, a mid season promotion to High-A seems reasonable.
98. Chad Bettis – RHP (Colorado Rockies)
Bettis was taken in the second round of the 2010 draft out of Texas Tech University. He has plus velocity, sitting 93-94 and touching higher. His secondary pitches are ok but still need work with an above average curve and a below average change-up. He pitched the entire 2011 season in the hitter friendly California league and dominated, striking out 184 in 169.2 and walking only 45. They key will be the development of his change-up. If it progresses, he could be a solid #3 with #2 upside. If not, he has a chance to be a late inning reliever.
99. Jed Bradley – LHP (Milwaukee Brewers)
Taken with the #15 pick in the 2011 amateur draft, Bradley is a power lefty with a major league frame at 6-4 and 225 lbs. His fastball sits at 88-94MPH with sink; which is a broad range and therefore shows some inconsistencies. He also has a plus slider and his change-up is decent for a college pitcher, but will need to improve. Scouts love his makeup and believe he will quickly advance through the system.
100. Javier Baez – SS (Chicago Cubs)
One of the better high school positional prospects in the 2011 draft, Javier Baez has a very quick bat with plus raw power. While he was drafted as a shortstop, most scouts believe he will outgrow the position and will have to move to 3B. He got very high marks in the Arizona Instructional League, which is good as the big black mark against Baez was a questionable make-up.
101. Luis Heredia – RHP (Pittsburgh Pirates)
Luis Heredia fits the profile of a #101 ranking in a Top 100 list – a kid who has sky high potential but with tremendous risk. Heredia who hails from Mexico, signed one of the largest international bonuses at $2.6M in 2010 for Pittsburgh. He’s a big kid at 6-6 and 205lbs and has an electric fastball that can flash in the upper 90’s. He’s already proven an ability to spin a curve and his change-up has flashed plus potential. Ignore the stats in the Gulf league because at 16-years old, what can you really expect? Next year, Heredia could be a legitimate Top 50 prospect or be put in the bucket of woulda/coulda.
Monday, November 14, 2011
The MLB CBA and how it will effect the draft
I went out to grab lunch today and was listening to the “Power Alley” on the MLB Network on SiriusXM. The collective bargaining agreement (CBA) was the topic and the hosts, former GM Jim Duquette and field manager Kevin Kennedy were commenting positively on the proposed changes that commissioner Bud Selig is suggesting. In fact, based on today’s news report, we could see a signed CBA by Thanksgiving.
It amazes me how uninformed fans and even broadcast announcers are about how destructive these proposed changes will be to the game of baseball. It really boils down to a question of free market vs. price controls. Let me explain…
The current rule 4 draft (otherwise known as the June amateur draft) gives the first pick in the draft to the team finishing with the worst record in Major League Baseball the previous year, the second pick to the team with the second worse record, and so on. There are special rules that enable teams that loose players via free agency to get additional picks in the first round and/or receive “supplemental” picks between the first and second round. These picks can prove to be very helpful for teams, particularly small market teams like the Tampa Rays, as these teams collect extra draft picks when their current free agent players elect to sign with a different team. For instance, when Carl Crawford decided to sign with the Boston Red Sox, Tampa received the Red Sox first round pick as well as a supplemental pick. All told, Tampa received 12 first and supplemental round picks in the 2011 draft to compensate for loosing players to free agency.
Another major aspect of the Rule 4 draft is determining how much money you pay a draftee. The commissioner’s office provides guidance, known as a slot recommendation, for each team to use when negotiating with a player. However, for the most part, teams do not adhere to these rules because players want more money and have hired “advisors” to assist in the negotiation. These advisors (we’ll call them agents from here on out) help to increase the offer, resulting in the following results from the 2011 draft: Gerrit Cole signs an $8M signing bonus on a recommended slot of $4M and Bubby Starling signs a $7.5M bonus on a recommended slot of $3.25M. Is this good or bad?
Since I believe in the free market, I not only believe it’s a good idea, I think it’s mandatory. Here’s why…
Not all of the players drafted, want to play baseball as their first choice. Many are elite high-school athletes that are being heavily recruited to play college football or basketball and Major League Baseball needs the flexibility to allow teams to recruit. If you’re thinking that college baseball is an alternative, not so fast… One of the little known facts about college sports is that baseball is not in the same scholarship category as football and basketball. Since baseball is not a revenue sport, Division I Schools are limited to 11.5 scholarships for their entire team while football is allowed 85. Sure, there are more players needed for football, but the difference is nonetheless dramatic.
Take Bubba Starling, taken #5 overall by the Kansas City Royals in the 2011 draft. Starling is an elite two-sport athlete that had a full scholarship to play quarterback for the University of Nebraska. Kansas City had to go over-slot to get Starling to play baseball, otherwise, he would have gone to Nebraska. In the 2010 draft, the same thing happened with Zach Lee. Lee was headed to LSU to play football and was signed by the Dodgers for over-slot money. It doesn’t stop with football, Josh Bell had accepted a scholarship to play baseball at the University of Texas and it took a $5M signing bonus, almost $4M over-slot for Pittsburgh to sign him. The bottom line is that recruiting talent takes money and Major League Baseball teams need to have the flexibility to make these deals.
As the new CBA goes through it’s final edits, it appears that punitive salary caps will be instituted. In other words, teams will be given a budget, based on where they draft, to sign their entire draft class. If you want to spend all of the money on your first pick, fine, you just won’t have any money to spend on other players. Other proposals that are being considered involve the concept of a draft tax. A team can spend what they want, but will have to pay a tax, either in the form of a financial payment to the league or loss of draft choices in the following draft.
In whatever form the final edits take, these types of controls are a BAD IDEA. They will force teams to be more conservative and take players that they feel absolutely confident that they can sign for a reasonable amount. Additionally, players that are taken in later rounds, who are considered “tough signs” because of their desire to play college baseball, will more likely, now, play college baseball.
While this might help some players, college has a history of being unkind to baseball players, particularly pitchers. The goal of a college program is to win games and if that means abusing the arm of a 19-year old by having him throw 150 pitches to win a game in a February game, then that’s what will happen. Players will take the risk that playing college baseball will enhance their chances of landing high in the draft in three years and some will, but many will fall to college abuse and never be heard from again.
The bottom line is that teams will have less of an appetite to sign players like Bubba Starling or “tough-signs”. If they fail to sign a risky pick, they would have under-spent on the draft and for small market teams, that’s going to hurt. Why?
The Pirates, Nationals, and Royals have spent heavily over the past few years on the draft and now have three of the best minor league organizations in all of baseball. In fact, those three teams continued their spending ways in 2011 and were the top three teams in terms of spending on the draft. While a great minor league organization doesn’t guarantee major league success, it sure goes a long way.
Since draftees are not in the union, I would also surmise that the players union would prefer these tighter controls. The theory is that clubs will spend less money on the draft and more in the free agent market. However, history has proven that smaller market teams prefer spending $15M on a draft class to spread the wealth/bets on younger players instead of two aging veterans that may not provide long-term answers.
Changes to the Rule 4 draft rules, may move major league teams to invest even more heavily in the International free agent market. Young talent outside of the U.S is not subjected to a draft or any major league controls. In essence, they can be signed by any team for any amount of money. Because of this, many MLB teams have established baseball academies and scouting bureaus in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, and other Caribbean countries to recruit young talent. For instance, in July of 2011, the Texas Rangers gave Ronald Guzman, a young 16-year old Dominican outfielder a $3.45M signing bonus and Nomar Mazara, another 16-year old outfielder, a record-breaking $5M signing bonus. Next year, based on the new CBA rules, there may not be a player with a $5M signing bonus taken in the draft. Is this fair or reasonable? It doesn’t feel that way to me and I believe that the commissioner is making a wrong decision that will hurt Major League Baseball in the long run.
While most baseball fans will simply gloss over the CBA changes, it could have lasting effects to the great game that we all love.
It amazes me how uninformed fans and even broadcast announcers are about how destructive these proposed changes will be to the game of baseball. It really boils down to a question of free market vs. price controls. Let me explain…
The current rule 4 draft (otherwise known as the June amateur draft) gives the first pick in the draft to the team finishing with the worst record in Major League Baseball the previous year, the second pick to the team with the second worse record, and so on. There are special rules that enable teams that loose players via free agency to get additional picks in the first round and/or receive “supplemental” picks between the first and second round. These picks can prove to be very helpful for teams, particularly small market teams like the Tampa Rays, as these teams collect extra draft picks when their current free agent players elect to sign with a different team. For instance, when Carl Crawford decided to sign with the Boston Red Sox, Tampa received the Red Sox first round pick as well as a supplemental pick. All told, Tampa received 12 first and supplemental round picks in the 2011 draft to compensate for loosing players to free agency.
Another major aspect of the Rule 4 draft is determining how much money you pay a draftee. The commissioner’s office provides guidance, known as a slot recommendation, for each team to use when negotiating with a player. However, for the most part, teams do not adhere to these rules because players want more money and have hired “advisors” to assist in the negotiation. These advisors (we’ll call them agents from here on out) help to increase the offer, resulting in the following results from the 2011 draft: Gerrit Cole signs an $8M signing bonus on a recommended slot of $4M and Bubby Starling signs a $7.5M bonus on a recommended slot of $3.25M. Is this good or bad?
Since I believe in the free market, I not only believe it’s a good idea, I think it’s mandatory. Here’s why…
Not all of the players drafted, want to play baseball as their first choice. Many are elite high-school athletes that are being heavily recruited to play college football or basketball and Major League Baseball needs the flexibility to allow teams to recruit. If you’re thinking that college baseball is an alternative, not so fast… One of the little known facts about college sports is that baseball is not in the same scholarship category as football and basketball. Since baseball is not a revenue sport, Division I Schools are limited to 11.5 scholarships for their entire team while football is allowed 85. Sure, there are more players needed for football, but the difference is nonetheless dramatic.
Take Bubba Starling, taken #5 overall by the Kansas City Royals in the 2011 draft. Starling is an elite two-sport athlete that had a full scholarship to play quarterback for the University of Nebraska. Kansas City had to go over-slot to get Starling to play baseball, otherwise, he would have gone to Nebraska. In the 2010 draft, the same thing happened with Zach Lee. Lee was headed to LSU to play football and was signed by the Dodgers for over-slot money. It doesn’t stop with football, Josh Bell had accepted a scholarship to play baseball at the University of Texas and it took a $5M signing bonus, almost $4M over-slot for Pittsburgh to sign him. The bottom line is that recruiting talent takes money and Major League Baseball teams need to have the flexibility to make these deals.
As the new CBA goes through it’s final edits, it appears that punitive salary caps will be instituted. In other words, teams will be given a budget, based on where they draft, to sign their entire draft class. If you want to spend all of the money on your first pick, fine, you just won’t have any money to spend on other players. Other proposals that are being considered involve the concept of a draft tax. A team can spend what they want, but will have to pay a tax, either in the form of a financial payment to the league or loss of draft choices in the following draft.
In whatever form the final edits take, these types of controls are a BAD IDEA. They will force teams to be more conservative and take players that they feel absolutely confident that they can sign for a reasonable amount. Additionally, players that are taken in later rounds, who are considered “tough signs” because of their desire to play college baseball, will more likely, now, play college baseball.
While this might help some players, college has a history of being unkind to baseball players, particularly pitchers. The goal of a college program is to win games and if that means abusing the arm of a 19-year old by having him throw 150 pitches to win a game in a February game, then that’s what will happen. Players will take the risk that playing college baseball will enhance their chances of landing high in the draft in three years and some will, but many will fall to college abuse and never be heard from again.
The bottom line is that teams will have less of an appetite to sign players like Bubba Starling or “tough-signs”. If they fail to sign a risky pick, they would have under-spent on the draft and for small market teams, that’s going to hurt. Why?
The Pirates, Nationals, and Royals have spent heavily over the past few years on the draft and now have three of the best minor league organizations in all of baseball. In fact, those three teams continued their spending ways in 2011 and were the top three teams in terms of spending on the draft. While a great minor league organization doesn’t guarantee major league success, it sure goes a long way.
Since draftees are not in the union, I would also surmise that the players union would prefer these tighter controls. The theory is that clubs will spend less money on the draft and more in the free agent market. However, history has proven that smaller market teams prefer spending $15M on a draft class to spread the wealth/bets on younger players instead of two aging veterans that may not provide long-term answers.
Changes to the Rule 4 draft rules, may move major league teams to invest even more heavily in the International free agent market. Young talent outside of the U.S is not subjected to a draft or any major league controls. In essence, they can be signed by any team for any amount of money. Because of this, many MLB teams have established baseball academies and scouting bureaus in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, and other Caribbean countries to recruit young talent. For instance, in July of 2011, the Texas Rangers gave Ronald Guzman, a young 16-year old Dominican outfielder a $3.45M signing bonus and Nomar Mazara, another 16-year old outfielder, a record-breaking $5M signing bonus. Next year, based on the new CBA rules, there may not be a player with a $5M signing bonus taken in the draft. Is this fair or reasonable? It doesn’t feel that way to me and I believe that the commissioner is making a wrong decision that will hurt Major League Baseball in the long run.
While most baseball fans will simply gloss over the CBA changes, it could have lasting effects to the great game that we all love.
Sunday, November 6, 2011
AFL Rising Stars Game
As I drove my daughter home from college in a blinding snow storm last weekend, my mind kept moving to warm sunshine and watching baseball games. I’ll have to admit that it was hard to concentrate as trees were falling onto power lines that then laid across roads, but it was the image that motivated me as I my car slid for most of the four hour trip home. With that as a backdrop, imagine my horror as I sat in the scouting section in Surprise Arizona, just a week later, bundled up with multiple socks, a heavy winter coat and gloves watching the annual Rising Stars Game. The thermometer showed 53 degrees at game time but trust me, 53 degrees at night in the desert is brutal.
The Rising Stars Game is the premier event of the Arizona Fall League (AFL), which features some of the best minor league prospects in baseball. The reason I say “some” is that the AFL is primarily a hitters league as major league baseball executives do not want to send their top pitching prospects who have just thrown 130 innings for the first time in their life. While the likes of Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, and Wil Myers are here, Matt Moore, Julio Teheran, and Taijuan Walker are lounging in their parent’s basement playing video games.
That said, one thing that has become a tradition is the professional debut of some of the top pitching prospects drafted in the previous Rule 4 draft - enter Gerrit Cole, Danny Hultzen, and Jed Bradley. All three were at the Rising Stars Game and while two of them pitched well, one of them wished they had been invited to Matt Moore’s Call of Duty tournament.
In this AFL series, I’ll detail my observations of some of the prospects that I was anxious to see and some that caught me by surprise that had me spending time between innings talking with scouts and researching stats and scouting reports at night. Buckle up, here we go…
Gerrit Cole
The Rising Stars Game featured the 2011 #1 draft pick, Gerrit Cole against the #2 pick, Danny Hultzen. From a prospect perspective, this is Ali vs. Frazier – “the Thrilla in Manilla.” Unfortunately after 6 batters, you could hear Howard Cosell screaming…down goes Frazier…down goes Frazier. In warm-up, Cole looked uncomfortable. He had no command of his off-speed pitches and hung a breaking ball on the third pitch. With a two inning limit, all you could think was uh oh… Cole’s first pitch was a 96 MHP fastball for a strike, the second was an 86 MPH slider that was nowhere near the strike zone and by the fifth pitch, Kevin Mattison, a Florida outfield prospect, hit a hard base hit to the right side. Cole was clearly agitated throughout his time on the mound, constantly kicking at the rubber like it had the Pick Six Lotto numbers underneath it.
While the stuff was flat, the pitch selection was even worse. He was throwing off-speed pitches on 2-0 counts that had most scouts looking perplexed while taking copious notes. Nick Franklin then crushed a 95 MPH fastball to right center that put the score at 2-0 before some fans had a chance to take a bite of their overcooked hot dog. Five batters later, Cole was walking to the dugout, retiring only two batters - Mike Olt on a strikeout with a slider that was a foot out of the strike zone and Jaff Decker on a ground-out.
Ok, it’s one game, in fact, it was 29 pitches, and so I think it’s safe to say we can give Cole a mulligan. I did have a chance to review film of Cole earlier in the week and saw sound mechanics that produces easy velocity. I also reviewed the film with a scout who has seen Cole extensively and he illustrated why the stuff is elite but where he’s not always repeating his delivery that is leading to inconsistent command. Also, Cole’s clearly got a great pro body at 6-4 and 220lbs that reminded me of young Roger Clemens on the mound.
I did get some interesting anecdotes on Cole’s makeup. The word is that he’s a real playful character off the mound, essentially not acting like the “alpha” male you want in an Ace but when he gets to the mound, he’s all business, even combative. I’m not sure what to make of this yet, but it is one of those things you store away.
Danny Hultzen
As bad as Gerrit Cole was Saturday night, Danny Hultzen was that good. He struck out the side in the first inning and was sitting 89-93 MPH and touched 94 twice. His command was excellent and while his secondary pitches were above average, he was able to locate them very well. Essentially that was the scouting report that I received before the game and the one that you can find publically on the Internet. He’s extremely polished with good stuff, not elite stuff and should progress quickly through the Mariner’s organization.
One thing I saw and subsequently spoke with a cross checkers at the game was a “crouchy funky delivery”. It wasn’t your prototypical long fluid lefty delivery (think Andy Pettitte) but instead was a delivery that had Hultzen bending over in the beginning before opening up as he made his way to the plate. When he did open up, many times he opened too far and created the dreaded “Inverted W”. In fact, in the film I saw the previous day, you could clearly see the “W” on most pitches – not all, but most.
After seeing two innings and multiple scouting films, I see a very good pitcher in Hultzen, but not a stud. He’ll be a solid #3 with #2 upside, particularly in Safeco and the AL West. Given his ability to locate and command his pitches, I could definitely see Hultzen making his major league debut by mid 2013 if not a cup of coffee in 2012, although the Mariners will probably closely monitor his innings in 2012 given his workload over three years at the University of Virginia.
Jed Bradley
Another lefty pitcher that made an appearance in the Rising Stars Game was Milwaukee’s first round draft pick, Jed Bradley, taken #15 overall in the 2011 Rule 4 draft. Bradley’s stuff was really good as he sat 90-93 with his fastball and was able to locate all pitches very well. I spoke with a scout after his inning and he thought Bradley’s stuff was better than Hultzen’s with another scout shaking his head – NO. Then again, it was the 7th inning and everybody was freezing by then, so he could have just been shivering.
I saw a bit of an inconsistent fastball but a plus curve and an above average change-up. I counted four change up’s with one absolutely nasty, that I regrettably forgot to write down who he threw it against. The batter was clearly thinking fastball and thought he saw fastball, but was WAY out in front. Finally, Bradley’s work ethic is supposedly off the charts with scouts raving about his make-up. He takes instruction very well and wants to get better.
Milwaukee does not have a long history of developing pitchers, which is why they felt compelled to move Brett Lawrie for Shawn Marcum as well as bringing in Zack Greinke. However, I’m feeling really good about Jed Bradley’s chances and everybody should put him on their radar.
Jean Segura
Before I share my observations about Jean Segura, you need to know that I have a huge “man crush” on the 21 year old Dominican. I think he’s the real deal with a plus hit tool, plus speed, and enough range to play shortstop. I see him as a first division starter with all-star potential.
The first thing you notice about Jean Segura is the body. He has gigantic legs and in fact, they almost look too developed. He’s not a big guy, even though he was listed in the press guide at 5-11 and 160. I’m guessing he’s more 5-8 to 5-9 but unfortunately the Surprise Stadium officials neglected to put up the measuring tape you see as you leave a Convenience store… a measuring tape on the net, hmmm???
Secondly, Segura has a very wide batting stance that allows him to achieve great plate coverage but reduces his ability to hit for power. There is very little movement in both his lower and upper body, but I saw him hit ropes in both games and batting practice. While I believe the raw power is there, I see his current approach yielding 10-12 home runs as a ceiling.
The speed is 60 on a 20 to 80 scale as I clocked him on three separate occasions down the first base line to an average of 4.19 from the right side. In a close play in the Rising Stars Game, I clocked him at 4.21 down the line. I doubt he will duplicate the 50 stolen bases he had in Low-A in 2010 once he makes the Majors, but there is easy 30 stolen base potential.
Finally is the defense. The Angels decided to move Segura to shortstop this year and while a hamstring injury reduced his playing time, what I saw was pretty impressive. He made an acrobatic play in the Rising Stars Game that had the entire stadium applauding. Granted it came after a pitiful play by his counter-part, game MVP Nick Franklin, but I believe the range and arm speed will play just fine at short.
Segura should move to Double-A next year and assuming his hamstring injury is behind him, don’t be surprised if you see Segura get a September call-up in 2012. If not, 2013 could be the year where the Angels bat Trout #1 and Segura #2…for a long-time.
Next time out, I’ll provide profiles of additional players I saw in Arizona including Bryce Harper – and let me tell you…it’s time to believe the HYPE!
The Rising Stars Game is the premier event of the Arizona Fall League (AFL), which features some of the best minor league prospects in baseball. The reason I say “some” is that the AFL is primarily a hitters league as major league baseball executives do not want to send their top pitching prospects who have just thrown 130 innings for the first time in their life. While the likes of Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, and Wil Myers are here, Matt Moore, Julio Teheran, and Taijuan Walker are lounging in their parent’s basement playing video games.
That said, one thing that has become a tradition is the professional debut of some of the top pitching prospects drafted in the previous Rule 4 draft - enter Gerrit Cole, Danny Hultzen, and Jed Bradley. All three were at the Rising Stars Game and while two of them pitched well, one of them wished they had been invited to Matt Moore’s Call of Duty tournament.
In this AFL series, I’ll detail my observations of some of the prospects that I was anxious to see and some that caught me by surprise that had me spending time between innings talking with scouts and researching stats and scouting reports at night. Buckle up, here we go…
Gerrit Cole
The Rising Stars Game featured the 2011 #1 draft pick, Gerrit Cole against the #2 pick, Danny Hultzen. From a prospect perspective, this is Ali vs. Frazier – “the Thrilla in Manilla.” Unfortunately after 6 batters, you could hear Howard Cosell screaming…down goes Frazier…down goes Frazier. In warm-up, Cole looked uncomfortable. He had no command of his off-speed pitches and hung a breaking ball on the third pitch. With a two inning limit, all you could think was uh oh… Cole’s first pitch was a 96 MHP fastball for a strike, the second was an 86 MPH slider that was nowhere near the strike zone and by the fifth pitch, Kevin Mattison, a Florida outfield prospect, hit a hard base hit to the right side. Cole was clearly agitated throughout his time on the mound, constantly kicking at the rubber like it had the Pick Six Lotto numbers underneath it.
While the stuff was flat, the pitch selection was even worse. He was throwing off-speed pitches on 2-0 counts that had most scouts looking perplexed while taking copious notes. Nick Franklin then crushed a 95 MPH fastball to right center that put the score at 2-0 before some fans had a chance to take a bite of their overcooked hot dog. Five batters later, Cole was walking to the dugout, retiring only two batters - Mike Olt on a strikeout with a slider that was a foot out of the strike zone and Jaff Decker on a ground-out.
Ok, it’s one game, in fact, it was 29 pitches, and so I think it’s safe to say we can give Cole a mulligan. I did have a chance to review film of Cole earlier in the week and saw sound mechanics that produces easy velocity. I also reviewed the film with a scout who has seen Cole extensively and he illustrated why the stuff is elite but where he’s not always repeating his delivery that is leading to inconsistent command. Also, Cole’s clearly got a great pro body at 6-4 and 220lbs that reminded me of young Roger Clemens on the mound.
I did get some interesting anecdotes on Cole’s makeup. The word is that he’s a real playful character off the mound, essentially not acting like the “alpha” male you want in an Ace but when he gets to the mound, he’s all business, even combative. I’m not sure what to make of this yet, but it is one of those things you store away.
Danny Hultzen
As bad as Gerrit Cole was Saturday night, Danny Hultzen was that good. He struck out the side in the first inning and was sitting 89-93 MPH and touched 94 twice. His command was excellent and while his secondary pitches were above average, he was able to locate them very well. Essentially that was the scouting report that I received before the game and the one that you can find publically on the Internet. He’s extremely polished with good stuff, not elite stuff and should progress quickly through the Mariner’s organization.
One thing I saw and subsequently spoke with a cross checkers at the game was a “crouchy funky delivery”. It wasn’t your prototypical long fluid lefty delivery (think Andy Pettitte) but instead was a delivery that had Hultzen bending over in the beginning before opening up as he made his way to the plate. When he did open up, many times he opened too far and created the dreaded “Inverted W”. In fact, in the film I saw the previous day, you could clearly see the “W” on most pitches – not all, but most.
After seeing two innings and multiple scouting films, I see a very good pitcher in Hultzen, but not a stud. He’ll be a solid #3 with #2 upside, particularly in Safeco and the AL West. Given his ability to locate and command his pitches, I could definitely see Hultzen making his major league debut by mid 2013 if not a cup of coffee in 2012, although the Mariners will probably closely monitor his innings in 2012 given his workload over three years at the University of Virginia.
Jed Bradley
Another lefty pitcher that made an appearance in the Rising Stars Game was Milwaukee’s first round draft pick, Jed Bradley, taken #15 overall in the 2011 Rule 4 draft. Bradley’s stuff was really good as he sat 90-93 with his fastball and was able to locate all pitches very well. I spoke with a scout after his inning and he thought Bradley’s stuff was better than Hultzen’s with another scout shaking his head – NO. Then again, it was the 7th inning and everybody was freezing by then, so he could have just been shivering.
I saw a bit of an inconsistent fastball but a plus curve and an above average change-up. I counted four change up’s with one absolutely nasty, that I regrettably forgot to write down who he threw it against. The batter was clearly thinking fastball and thought he saw fastball, but was WAY out in front. Finally, Bradley’s work ethic is supposedly off the charts with scouts raving about his make-up. He takes instruction very well and wants to get better.
Milwaukee does not have a long history of developing pitchers, which is why they felt compelled to move Brett Lawrie for Shawn Marcum as well as bringing in Zack Greinke. However, I’m feeling really good about Jed Bradley’s chances and everybody should put him on their radar.
Jean Segura
Before I share my observations about Jean Segura, you need to know that I have a huge “man crush” on the 21 year old Dominican. I think he’s the real deal with a plus hit tool, plus speed, and enough range to play shortstop. I see him as a first division starter with all-star potential.
The first thing you notice about Jean Segura is the body. He has gigantic legs and in fact, they almost look too developed. He’s not a big guy, even though he was listed in the press guide at 5-11 and 160. I’m guessing he’s more 5-8 to 5-9 but unfortunately the Surprise Stadium officials neglected to put up the measuring tape you see as you leave a Convenience store… a measuring tape on the net, hmmm???
Secondly, Segura has a very wide batting stance that allows him to achieve great plate coverage but reduces his ability to hit for power. There is very little movement in both his lower and upper body, but I saw him hit ropes in both games and batting practice. While I believe the raw power is there, I see his current approach yielding 10-12 home runs as a ceiling.
The speed is 60 on a 20 to 80 scale as I clocked him on three separate occasions down the first base line to an average of 4.19 from the right side. In a close play in the Rising Stars Game, I clocked him at 4.21 down the line. I doubt he will duplicate the 50 stolen bases he had in Low-A in 2010 once he makes the Majors, but there is easy 30 stolen base potential.
Finally is the defense. The Angels decided to move Segura to shortstop this year and while a hamstring injury reduced his playing time, what I saw was pretty impressive. He made an acrobatic play in the Rising Stars Game that had the entire stadium applauding. Granted it came after a pitiful play by his counter-part, game MVP Nick Franklin, but I believe the range and arm speed will play just fine at short.
Segura should move to Double-A next year and assuming his hamstring injury is behind him, don’t be surprised if you see Segura get a September call-up in 2012. If not, 2013 could be the year where the Angels bat Trout #1 and Segura #2…for a long-time.
Next time out, I’ll provide profiles of additional players I saw in Arizona including Bryce Harper – and let me tell you…it’s time to believe the HYPE!
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
2011 Arizona Fall League Prospects - Salt River Rafters
The final installment in my AFL Prospect Review takes us to the Salt River Rafters that comprise players from the Astros, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Rockies, and Tigers.
It's a bit slim pickings with the Rafters, but here are some of the players I find the most interesting.
Detroit LHP: Casey Crosby
At the end of the 2009 season, there were high hopes for Casey Crosby developing into a top of the rotation starter following his successful recovery from TJS. While he still has top of the rotation stuff, continued elbow troubles and poor control have plagued him every since. There are rumblings that Detroit is considering moving Crosby to the pen and that is what Detroit will test in the AFL. So far, the results have not been great. In 7 innings, he’s walked 7.
Colorado 3B: Nolan Arenado
Drafted in the second round in 2008, Arenado has a plus hit tool with gap power that should eventually translate into 20-25 home run power in the majors. In High-A Modesto, he had an elite 90% contact rate and a passable 9% walk rate. In the AFL, the great hitting has continued with a .392 batting average in 74 at-bats.
Arizona OF: Adam Eaton
At 5-9, teams passed over Adam Eaton until Arizona grabbed him in the 19th round of the 2010 amateur draft. All he’s done since being drafted is hit. Across High-A and Double-A, Eaton batted .318 with a 76K/72BB rate while hitting 10 home runs and stealing 34 bases. The big problem is the defense. He doesn’t profile as a center fielder which leaves scouts believing he’ll be a tweener (aka, a fourth outfielder). All that said, Eaton continues to rake in the AFL, batting .338 with 6 stolen bases.
Colorado OF: Tim Wheeler
Taken in the first round in 2009, Tim Wheeler played poorly in 2010, hitting only .249 in the hitter friendly confines of Modesto in the CAL league. He’s turned that around this year by slamming 33 home runs and batting .287 in Double-A Tulsa. His .287 average is being supported by a fairly high BABIP but when taken all together, there’s a lot to like with Wheeler.
Los Angeles OF: Alex Castellanos
Not to be confused with Nick Castellanos, Alex is a 25 year-old late bloomer that was part of the Rafael Furcal trade. Scouts like his hit tool as is demonstrated by his .320 average and 21 home runs in Double-A. The contact rate (76%) and walk rate (8%) are both average. In 29 at-bats in the AFL, he’s batting .379 with 3 home runs.
It's a bit slim pickings with the Rafters, but here are some of the players I find the most interesting.
Detroit LHP: Casey Crosby
At the end of the 2009 season, there were high hopes for Casey Crosby developing into a top of the rotation starter following his successful recovery from TJS. While he still has top of the rotation stuff, continued elbow troubles and poor control have plagued him every since. There are rumblings that Detroit is considering moving Crosby to the pen and that is what Detroit will test in the AFL. So far, the results have not been great. In 7 innings, he’s walked 7.
Colorado 3B: Nolan Arenado
Drafted in the second round in 2008, Arenado has a plus hit tool with gap power that should eventually translate into 20-25 home run power in the majors. In High-A Modesto, he had an elite 90% contact rate and a passable 9% walk rate. In the AFL, the great hitting has continued with a .392 batting average in 74 at-bats.
Arizona OF: Adam Eaton
At 5-9, teams passed over Adam Eaton until Arizona grabbed him in the 19th round of the 2010 amateur draft. All he’s done since being drafted is hit. Across High-A and Double-A, Eaton batted .318 with a 76K/72BB rate while hitting 10 home runs and stealing 34 bases. The big problem is the defense. He doesn’t profile as a center fielder which leaves scouts believing he’ll be a tweener (aka, a fourth outfielder). All that said, Eaton continues to rake in the AFL, batting .338 with 6 stolen bases.
Colorado OF: Tim Wheeler
Taken in the first round in 2009, Tim Wheeler played poorly in 2010, hitting only .249 in the hitter friendly confines of Modesto in the CAL league. He’s turned that around this year by slamming 33 home runs and batting .287 in Double-A Tulsa. His .287 average is being supported by a fairly high BABIP but when taken all together, there’s a lot to like with Wheeler.
Los Angeles OF: Alex Castellanos
Not to be confused with Nick Castellanos, Alex is a 25 year-old late bloomer that was part of the Rafael Furcal trade. Scouts like his hit tool as is demonstrated by his .320 average and 21 home runs in Double-A. The contact rate (76%) and walk rate (8%) are both average. In 29 at-bats in the AFL, he’s batting .379 with 3 home runs.
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
2011 Arizona Fall League Prospects - Phoenix Desert Dogs
The Phoenix Desert Dogs of the Arizona Fall League have players form the A's, Jays, Indians, Reds, and Yankees. Since many of these teams have deep farm systems, the Dogs are one of the better teams to observe when in Arizona.
Here are a list of some of the more interesting prospects on the Desert Dogs.
Cincinnati Catcher: Yasmani Grandal
Grandal gets overlooked as the other catcher in the Cincinnati farm system. While Grandal doesn’t have the upside of Mesoraco, he still has the offensive skill-set to become an elite backstop and hit in the middle of the lineup. With plus power and a great approach to hitting, Grandal went through three levels in the minor league ending in Triple-A and batted .305, with a .401 OBP while adding 14 home runs. A contact rate of 74% could be better, but there is a lot to like here. Unfortunately, after an injury to his left middle finger, Grandal was shut down and sent home. The good news is it does not appear serious and he should be ready for Spring Training.
Toronto SS: Adeiny Hechaverria
Hechaverria defected from Cuba in 2010 to a lot of fanfare as scouts and fans alike wanted to see the glove that played so well on the International stage. While the glove was great, the bat was not. In 986 professional at-bats, Hechaverria is batting .255 with 12 home runs and 33 stolen bases out of 51 attempts. The approach is poor as Hechaverria is walking only 5% of the time. In 54 at-bats in the AFL, it’s been more of the same – great defense with a .241 average with no home runs or stolen bases.
Oakland OF: Michael Choice
Oakland has searched for a long-time for a middle of the order power bat and may have found one in Michael Choice. Taken as the #10 overall pick in the 2010 draft, Choice dominated the CAL league by hitting 30 home runs and batting .285. While his strikeout rate was high at 28%, Choice did shorten his swing throughout the year and dropped his strikeout rate significantly without loosing power. He’s been one of the more impressive players in the AFL, belting 6 home runs in only 51 AB’s while carrying a .333 batting average.
Jays OF: Anthony Gose
Gose is another in a long-line of toolsy players that is learning how to hit...but boy are the tools good. In Double-A, Gose stole 70 bases and hit 16 home runs but struck out 154 times in 509 AB’s. Gose started off hot in the AFL but has cooled in the past two weeks to a .260 average with 3 home runs and 4 stolen bases. However, in 77 at-bats, he has struck out 23 times.
Oakland OF: Grant Green
The future shortstop for the Oakland A’s was suppose to be Grant Green. However, the player development process is flexible and during the 2011 season, Green was moved to center field. Green is a nice complete player without one true outstanding tool. His Double-A stat line proves the point. In 530 at-bats, he batted .291 with a .343 OBP, 9 home runs, and 6 stolen bases in 14 attempts. In 66 at-bats in the AFL, Green is batting .258 with 2 home runs and 2 caught stealing.
Here are a list of some of the more interesting prospects on the Desert Dogs.
Cincinnati Catcher: Yasmani Grandal
Grandal gets overlooked as the other catcher in the Cincinnati farm system. While Grandal doesn’t have the upside of Mesoraco, he still has the offensive skill-set to become an elite backstop and hit in the middle of the lineup. With plus power and a great approach to hitting, Grandal went through three levels in the minor league ending in Triple-A and batted .305, with a .401 OBP while adding 14 home runs. A contact rate of 74% could be better, but there is a lot to like here. Unfortunately, after an injury to his left middle finger, Grandal was shut down and sent home. The good news is it does not appear serious and he should be ready for Spring Training.
Toronto SS: Adeiny Hechaverria
Hechaverria defected from Cuba in 2010 to a lot of fanfare as scouts and fans alike wanted to see the glove that played so well on the International stage. While the glove was great, the bat was not. In 986 professional at-bats, Hechaverria is batting .255 with 12 home runs and 33 stolen bases out of 51 attempts. The approach is poor as Hechaverria is walking only 5% of the time. In 54 at-bats in the AFL, it’s been more of the same – great defense with a .241 average with no home runs or stolen bases.
Oakland OF: Michael Choice
Oakland has searched for a long-time for a middle of the order power bat and may have found one in Michael Choice. Taken as the #10 overall pick in the 2010 draft, Choice dominated the CAL league by hitting 30 home runs and batting .285. While his strikeout rate was high at 28%, Choice did shorten his swing throughout the year and dropped his strikeout rate significantly without loosing power. He’s been one of the more impressive players in the AFL, belting 6 home runs in only 51 AB’s while carrying a .333 batting average.
Jays OF: Anthony Gose
Gose is another in a long-line of toolsy players that is learning how to hit...but boy are the tools good. In Double-A, Gose stole 70 bases and hit 16 home runs but struck out 154 times in 509 AB’s. Gose started off hot in the AFL but has cooled in the past two weeks to a .260 average with 3 home runs and 4 stolen bases. However, in 77 at-bats, he has struck out 23 times.
Oakland OF: Grant Green
The future shortstop for the Oakland A’s was suppose to be Grant Green. However, the player development process is flexible and during the 2011 season, Green was moved to center field. Green is a nice complete player without one true outstanding tool. His Double-A stat line proves the point. In 530 at-bats, he batted .291 with a .343 OBP, 9 home runs, and 6 stolen bases in 14 attempts. In 66 at-bats in the AFL, Green is batting .258 with 2 home runs and 2 caught stealing.
Monday, October 31, 2011
2011 Arizona Fall League Prospects - Peoria Javelinas
Part four of my AFL Prospect Preview takes us to the Peoria Javalinas. In case you're wondering, a Javalina is a skunk pig. I can't say that I've ever seen a Javalina outside of Wikipedia, but something tells me it would make a lousy pet.
The Peoria Javelinas are comprised of players from the Brewers, Cardinals, Mariners, Mets, and Padres.
Seattle LHP: Danny Hultzen
Danny Hultzen was taken with the #3 pick in the 2011 amateur draft by the Seattle Mariners. He possess a 91-94MHP fast ball with a good slider and change-up. The thing that sets Hultzen apart is his excellent command and polished approach to pitching. While his ceiling might not be as high as some of other standout pitchers in the 2011 draft, he should quickly work through the system with a 2012 major league appearance in the cards.
Milwaukee LHP: Jed Bradley
Taken with the #15 pick in the 2011 amateur draft, Bradley is a power lefty with a major league frame at 6-4 and 225 lbs. His fastball sits at 88-94MPH with sink; which is a broad range and therefore shows some inconsistencies. He also has a plus slider and his change-up is decent for a college pitcher, but will need to improve. Scouts love his makeup and believe he will quickly advance through the system.
St. Louis 1B: Matt Adams
Matt Adams is a large human listed at 6-3 and 230 lbs but could easily weigh 260-270 or more. Drafted in the 23rd round in the 2009 draft, Adams has exceeded expectations by hitting for power in both Single-A (22 home runs) and Double-A (32 home runs). The hit tool is also surprising with an 81% contact rate and 8.5% walk rate. If Pujols moves on, St. Louis could look to the lefty slugger as a solution.
Seattle SS: Nick Franklin
Big things were expected from Nick Franklin as he joined the hitter friendly California league after a 23 home run campaign in the Low-A Midwest league in 2010. However, Franklin disappointed and only hit 5 home runs but had a nice contact and walk rate. Similar results remained as he moved to Double-A. Scouts are still bullish on the potential and at 21 years-old, there’s still a lot of development left.
San Diego 3B: Jedd Gyorko
Short and squat at 5-10 and 195 lbs, Jedd Gyorko posses a great hit tool with nice bat speed and above average power potential. In 2011, he had an excellent 80% contact rate and 11% walk rate. Based on his lack of athleticism, Gyorko may eventually move to a corner outfield spot. While he demonstrated power in the hitter friendly CAL league, the home runs didn't follow him to Double-A. Gyorko is really raking in the AFL, batting .388 with 3 home runs and 1.106 OPS.
Cardinals OF: Oscar Taveras(Pronounced Oh-scar)
One of the youngest players at 19 years-old in the AFL, Taveras has a great lefty hit-tool with a quick level swing that barrels the ball. While he has a very aggressive swing, he doesn't strike-out a lot. He currently has gap to gap power that should translate into 15-20 home run power at full development. The open question for the young Taveras…will a .300 average with 20 home run potential be enough to stick at a corner outfield or does this profile as a fourth outfielder? He is currently batting .283 in 46 at-bats in the AFL.
The Peoria Javelinas are comprised of players from the Brewers, Cardinals, Mariners, Mets, and Padres.
Seattle LHP: Danny Hultzen
Danny Hultzen was taken with the #3 pick in the 2011 amateur draft by the Seattle Mariners. He possess a 91-94MHP fast ball with a good slider and change-up. The thing that sets Hultzen apart is his excellent command and polished approach to pitching. While his ceiling might not be as high as some of other standout pitchers in the 2011 draft, he should quickly work through the system with a 2012 major league appearance in the cards.
Milwaukee LHP: Jed Bradley
Taken with the #15 pick in the 2011 amateur draft, Bradley is a power lefty with a major league frame at 6-4 and 225 lbs. His fastball sits at 88-94MPH with sink; which is a broad range and therefore shows some inconsistencies. He also has a plus slider and his change-up is decent for a college pitcher, but will need to improve. Scouts love his makeup and believe he will quickly advance through the system.
St. Louis 1B: Matt Adams
Matt Adams is a large human listed at 6-3 and 230 lbs but could easily weigh 260-270 or more. Drafted in the 23rd round in the 2009 draft, Adams has exceeded expectations by hitting for power in both Single-A (22 home runs) and Double-A (32 home runs). The hit tool is also surprising with an 81% contact rate and 8.5% walk rate. If Pujols moves on, St. Louis could look to the lefty slugger as a solution.
Seattle SS: Nick Franklin
Big things were expected from Nick Franklin as he joined the hitter friendly California league after a 23 home run campaign in the Low-A Midwest league in 2010. However, Franklin disappointed and only hit 5 home runs but had a nice contact and walk rate. Similar results remained as he moved to Double-A. Scouts are still bullish on the potential and at 21 years-old, there’s still a lot of development left.
San Diego 3B: Jedd Gyorko
Short and squat at 5-10 and 195 lbs, Jedd Gyorko posses a great hit tool with nice bat speed and above average power potential. In 2011, he had an excellent 80% contact rate and 11% walk rate. Based on his lack of athleticism, Gyorko may eventually move to a corner outfield spot. While he demonstrated power in the hitter friendly CAL league, the home runs didn't follow him to Double-A. Gyorko is really raking in the AFL, batting .388 with 3 home runs and 1.106 OPS.
Cardinals OF: Oscar Taveras(Pronounced Oh-scar)
One of the youngest players at 19 years-old in the AFL, Taveras has a great lefty hit-tool with a quick level swing that barrels the ball. While he has a very aggressive swing, he doesn't strike-out a lot. He currently has gap to gap power that should translate into 15-20 home run power at full development. The open question for the young Taveras…will a .300 average with 20 home run potential be enough to stick at a corner outfield or does this profile as a fourth outfielder? He is currently batting .283 in 46 at-bats in the AFL.
Friday, October 28, 2011
2011 Arizona Fall League Prospects - Mesa Solar Sox
The third installment in our AFL preview takes us to the Mesa Solar Sox and players from the Cubs, Orioles, Pirates, Twins and White Sox. The hype is all around the 2011 #1 draft pick Gerritt Cole and he has not disappointed.
Below are some of the more interesting prospects on the team.
Pittsburgh RHP: Gerritt Cole
Cole was the 2011 #1 overall pick in the amateur draft out of UCLA. He has elite stuff with an upper 90's fastball, a nasty change-up and an improving slider. He was being compared at the beginning of the college season to Stephen Strasburg, but scouts quickly realized that while the stuff is there, the command is lacking. A 6-4 and 220lbs, Cole should have the body to endure 200+ innings at the major league level. In his highly anticipated AFL debut, Cole did not disappoint; lighting up the radar with several triple digit readings.
Chicago Cubs RHP: Trey McNutt
Signed in the 32nd round of the 2009 amateur draft, McNutt flew up prospect lists in 2010 by combining a 94-96MPH fastball with a nasty two-plane slider. High expectations turned into disappointment as a complete mechanical breakdown in 2011 resulted in a 65K/39BB rate in 95 IP in Double-A. In limited exposure in the AFL, it’s been more of the same with four walks in 9.0 IP and a .342 against. McNutt might be destined for the bullpen where can throw with maximum effort for an inning.
Pittsburgh OF: Robbie Grossman
Grossman has lots of average to above average tools, but doesn’t have that one tool that scouts can call elite. He does have a tremendous batting eye and approach which resulted in 104 walks in 490 at-bats in High-A. Roll it all together and his stat line this year was 13 home runs, 24 stolen bases while batting .294. Grossman has continued to hit in the AFL, batting .377 with 6 home runs and maybe the elite tool that he really has is that he can flat out play.
Minnesota OF: Aaron Hicks
Scouts fall in love with tools and Aaron Hicks has a ton of them. The problem is his ability to hit has yet to catch up to his athleticism. Part of the problem is the 78 walks he took in 443 at-bats this year in the Class-A Florida State League. Scouts look for aggressive hitters with a good eye but Hicks is just passive at the plate. He doesn’t swing at good pitches and then gets himself into poor hitting counts resulting in weak contact. In the final two months of the season, Hicks batted a paltry .195. At 22 years-old and likely to repeat Single-A, Hicks needs to start figuring things out. So far in the AFL, it’s more of the same – 59 at-bats, 10 walks and a .254 average but with 3 home runs and 3 stolen bases.
Chicago Cubs 3B: Josh Vitters
Taken as the #3 overall pick in the 2007 amateur draft, Josh Vitters has a beautiful right-handed stroke that makes elite contact (85-87%). His power potential is average to above average. The main problem with Vitters is he swings at everything, walking 22 times in 488 plate appearance. Additionally, because his approach is so poor, he swings at many bad pitches and much of the contact he makes is weak. His focus at the AFL is patience and so far, he’s doing well. In 58 at-bats, he’s batting .328 with 2 home runs and 4 walks. There might be hope here.
Below are some of the more interesting prospects on the team.
Pittsburgh RHP: Gerritt Cole
Cole was the 2011 #1 overall pick in the amateur draft out of UCLA. He has elite stuff with an upper 90's fastball, a nasty change-up and an improving slider. He was being compared at the beginning of the college season to Stephen Strasburg, but scouts quickly realized that while the stuff is there, the command is lacking. A 6-4 and 220lbs, Cole should have the body to endure 200+ innings at the major league level. In his highly anticipated AFL debut, Cole did not disappoint; lighting up the radar with several triple digit readings.
Chicago Cubs RHP: Trey McNutt
Signed in the 32nd round of the 2009 amateur draft, McNutt flew up prospect lists in 2010 by combining a 94-96MPH fastball with a nasty two-plane slider. High expectations turned into disappointment as a complete mechanical breakdown in 2011 resulted in a 65K/39BB rate in 95 IP in Double-A. In limited exposure in the AFL, it’s been more of the same with four walks in 9.0 IP and a .342 against. McNutt might be destined for the bullpen where can throw with maximum effort for an inning.
Pittsburgh OF: Robbie Grossman
Grossman has lots of average to above average tools, but doesn’t have that one tool that scouts can call elite. He does have a tremendous batting eye and approach which resulted in 104 walks in 490 at-bats in High-A. Roll it all together and his stat line this year was 13 home runs, 24 stolen bases while batting .294. Grossman has continued to hit in the AFL, batting .377 with 6 home runs and maybe the elite tool that he really has is that he can flat out play.
Minnesota OF: Aaron Hicks
Scouts fall in love with tools and Aaron Hicks has a ton of them. The problem is his ability to hit has yet to catch up to his athleticism. Part of the problem is the 78 walks he took in 443 at-bats this year in the Class-A Florida State League. Scouts look for aggressive hitters with a good eye but Hicks is just passive at the plate. He doesn’t swing at good pitches and then gets himself into poor hitting counts resulting in weak contact. In the final two months of the season, Hicks batted a paltry .195. At 22 years-old and likely to repeat Single-A, Hicks needs to start figuring things out. So far in the AFL, it’s more of the same – 59 at-bats, 10 walks and a .254 average but with 3 home runs and 3 stolen bases.
Chicago Cubs 3B: Josh Vitters
Taken as the #3 overall pick in the 2007 amateur draft, Josh Vitters has a beautiful right-handed stroke that makes elite contact (85-87%). His power potential is average to above average. The main problem with Vitters is he swings at everything, walking 22 times in 488 plate appearance. Additionally, because his approach is so poor, he swings at many bad pitches and much of the contact he makes is weak. His focus at the AFL is patience and so far, he’s doing well. In 58 at-bats, he’s batting .328 with 2 home runs and 4 walks. There might be hope here.
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