Sunday, March 7, 2010

Looking for Value in the Draft

The key to looking for value in a Fantasy Baseball draft is to find players that have a low ADP but have peripheral statistics that would suggest the player will out-perform his draft position and therefore bring value.

During drafting season, I'll look at undervalued players relative their draft position and after the season starts, I'll look at players who are either over performing their peripheral statistics or under- performing.

Justin Masterson (361)

Once a prized prospect with the Boston Red Sox, Justin Masterson finds himself with a new zip code and an opportunity to break into the starting rotation for the Indians. However, with an ADP of 361, he's barely being drafted in a 12-team league.

Masterson has the combination of what you look for in a pitcher - an extreme ground ball rate but also a high strikeout rate. Over the past two years, his ground ball rate has been 54% while his strikeout rate per nine (K/9) last year was 8.3. The problem has been his walk rate; walking 4.2 batters per nine innings last year. However, at age 25, Masterson is still very young and control many times is the last thing to develop. Finally, Masterson's Batting Average on Ball in Play (BABIP) was 32% last year, meaning he was somewhat unlucky.

As a late round flyer, Masterson has the perfect profile for a player who will return a nice profit - great underlying stats and opportunity.

Kelly Johnson (275)

Just two year ago, Kelly Johnson was establishing himself as the starting second baseman for the Atlanta Braves. However, a difficult hitting year last season in combination with a breakout season for Martin Prado, and Johnson finds himself in Phoenix looking to get his career back on track.

What happened? The biggest offender was Johnson's BABIP, which was 25% last year in comparison to an average of 33% the previous three years. This helped depress his average from a more Johnson like .275 to .280 to a dreadful .230 last year. What's interesting is his contact rate improved to 83%.

Johnson is never going to be a power hitter, but with a flyball of 43% and a hr/f rate that should improve as he moves to Arizona, 15-18 home runs is not out of the question. Turner Field is not kind to left handers as it suppresses home runs by 6% while Chase Field proves a 15% advantage.

Corey Hart (180)

In 2007, Corey Hart had his breakout batting .295 with 24 home runs and 23 stolen bases. The Brewers as well as Fantasy Baseball owners believed that Hart would grow into the next 25/25 or even 30/30 player. That has not happened as Hart has been sliding ever since, landing with a thud last year with 12 homers, 11 stolen bases, and batting .260.

Part of his problem last year were injuries (bruised foot and an emergency appendectomy) that limited Hart to only 419 AB's. However, even with the injuries, Hart managed a decent 78% contact rate with a walk rate of 9%. The power loss was due to a 9% home run to fly ball ratio (hr/f), but an even more anemic 6% hr/f during the second half. This is down from 13% during his breakout year. Clearly, the injuries were taking a toll.

While Corey Hart's hitting mechanics might not dictate a 30/30 player, he still owns the skills for a 20/20 player with a .275 average. At an ADP of 180, there is clear value in picking up Hart in the 14th or 15th round.

Adam LaRoche (179)

Adam LaRoche never receives any love at the draft table. Everyone knows about his slow starts, but in the end, isn't all about the final numbers – particularly in a roto-league.

Very few players provide the consistent production that LaRoche delivers. Over the past four years, his contact rate has averaged 74%-77% and his walk rate has averaged 10% every year. Over the past two years, he's hit 25 home runs and drove in 87 and 85 runs. All that said, he does move to Arizona where home runs for left handers increased by 15% as opposed to Atlanta where home runs for left handers is reduced by 6%

Ignoring the park factors, there doesn't appear to be any statistical upside, so you'll to settle on 25 home runs, 85 RBI, 75 Runs, and a .275 average. I don't know about you, but I'll take that production, with low-risk, in a heartbeat in the 14th or 15th round as my corner infielder or even my first baseman. In fact, in a 15-team mixed draft, you might even consider focusing on other positions in the first ten rounds and then pickup LaRoche.

Aaron Harang (246)

The call players like Aaron Harang innings eaters because they appear to have rubber arms that can pitch 200+ innings year over year – until they burn out.

In Harang's best year of 2007, he went 16-6 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. That year, his K/9 was 8.5 and his BB/9 was 2.0. In 2009, Harang's underlying strikeout and walk rates were similar as he posted a K/9 of 7.9 and a BB/9 of 2.4, however, his record did not fare nearly as well. Look no further than a BABIP of 34% and a hr/f rate 12% and you have your answer.

The bottom line is that Aaron Harang still has the skills of an elite pitcher, but he's run into a string of bad luck over the past two years. You also can't completely discount the wear and tear on his arm and the work load that Dusty Baker might ask, but the skills are there and as an end game selection, he's a player that will be on a lot of my teams.