And down the stretch they come…

I've been playing Fantasy Basketball for many years and I've never seen a season so riddled with injuries. Stoudemire, Jefferson, Brand, Bogut, Redd, McGrady, are just a few of the players who have disappeared from our teams. However, if that's happened to you, stop you whining and do something. With 75% of the season in the rear view mirror, it's time to analyze your league, pick a strategy for moving up in a category, and work it. I also find that many owners are distracted during this time of the year preparing for Baseball drafts. Take advantage of those people sleeping at the wheel and make some moves.

This blog will primarily focus on roto leagues, but if you're interested in strategies for head-to-head leagues, read my previous posting on taking advantage of the playoff schedule.

This late in the season, if you're trying to move up in all categories, you're not going to make it. In fact, you'll probably go crazy by spending countless unproductive hours looking at the waiver wire. You've got to focus! Here's some tips:

Tip #1: Analyzing categories

Analyze the categories and determine the distance between you and the next two to three teams in each category. I like to use 5% as a rule of thumb for determining whether I can catch a team. Let's use an example to illustrate the point:

• You have 3300 rebounds for a grand total of 3 points in the category.
  
• The team directly ahead of you has 3350 rebounds [1.5% more than you], the team two ahead of you 3375 [2.2%], three ahead 3420 [3.6%], and four ahead, 3540 [7.2%].
  
• In the above example, you should target a move of three points, or catch the team with 3420. Anything beyond that is probably not realistic. Why??? Here's the logic…the average number of games left are approximately 25. You can probably pick up a player on the waiver wire that can give you 7-9 rebounds a game, but he will probably replace a player that's getting 2-3; assuming you replace a PG/SG with a PF, that will give you an increase of 6-7 rebounds per game. Simple math: 6.5 times 25 games gives you 162 rebounds or roughly 5% - give or take.
  

The 5% rule is not an exact science as you can gain more quickly in the scarce categories [blocks, steals, and 3's] by selecting a specialist. How so? See Tip #3.

Tip #2: Lebron James does not exist on the Waiver Wire

Recognize that this late in the season, players don't exist on the waiver wire that can fill up more than three categories. Therefore, pick the categories to focus on and pick the appropriate player. Compartmentalize your players as one of following:

• PF's/C that give you rebounds, blocks, and good FG%. If after doing your analysis from Tip #1, you decide that chasing rebounds will be the strategy, look also at what you can do with blocks and FG% as it's likely that these other two categories will increase as well. DO NOT pick a big guy that hurts your FG%.
  
• PG's that give you assist, steals, and good FT%. Players on the waiver wire that give you both steals and assist together are hard to find this late in the season, but if you do, that's the player you want.
  
• SG/SF that give you 3's, points, and good FT%. If you decide to chase 3's, make sure your ready for a bumpy ride as a three point specialist is the most inconsistent player in the league.
  

Tip #3: Focus on category scarcity

If you're completely lost as to what to do, focus on the three scarce categories: blocks, steals, and 3 point shots.

• Blocks. The Block shot is way down this year [see previous blog post] and a smart player can move up quickly in a category by adding a shot blocking specialist like Chris Andersen or Ronny Turiaf. Look at the math: Chris Andersen is blocking 2.2 shots a game, and will ignore for the moment the last 2 weeks where he's blocked 3.6 per game, which is over a block more than Dwight Howard in that same timeframe. Multiple 2.2 times 25 and you get 55 blocks. Assuming that you replace a PG getting virtual no blocks, this could easily represent a 15% increase for the rest of the season.
  
• 3 Point Shots. There are many 3 point specialist in the league that are sitting on waiver wires. Roger Mason, Eddie House, Dequan Cook, and J.R. Smith come to mind as excellent sources. While the logic is similar, 3 point shooting is not as scarce as block so the benefit of adding a 3 point specialist is not as great.
  
• Steals. The final and most plentiful of the scarce category is steals. In general, I like to combine steals with assist to focus on two categories. However, when you can find a player with high steals and rebounds or better yet, blocks, you've found gold. Recently, somebody dropped Kenyon Martin in a 12 team league and fortunately I was able to claim him off waivers. A few weeks ago, I decided to chase rebounds and blocks in this league and have been making headway. However, I had three other teams within 2% of my total in steals. Picking up Martin gave me not only blocks and rebounds, but 1.6 steals per game. What I find strange is that few people recognize this because they see 12.5 ppg and go ho-hum. The gold is found in the scarce categories. Other players you might find on the waiver wire that provide great steals and block contribution are: Shane Battier, Marc Gasol, Wilson Chandler [although, I'm not a big fan], and Travis Outlaw.
  

Tip #4: Don't chase points

I say it, I preach it, but nobody ever listens – but it's so true! I win leagues every year by blowing out the scarce categories, keeping my percentages high, and finishing in the middle of the pack in points. That's not the macho way to do it, but it's the easiest way to win. What's the logic? On the waiver wire, you might find a player that will get you 15 points a game, but it's more likely you'll find a player getting 12-13 points and replace a player getting 9 points. Simple math: 25 games left, times 4 points per game, gives you 100 points. The problem is teams are averaging 9,000 to 10,000 total points and that extra 100 points will only move the needle 1%. Not a lot of value. Instead, the goal that you should employ going down the stretch is to maintain your standing in points, but don't chase them. If you must chase points, just know that it's unlikely you'll catch a team that's more than 2% ahead.

Tip #5: Respect your percentages

In a standard 8 category rotisserie league, your percentages (FG% and FT%) account for 25%. They can't be ignored! However, this late in the season, it's hard to catch a team ahead of you, but the math can quickly work against you if you add the wrong player. People are jumping on Rafer Alston since joining Orlando. While he'll get you assist, he's a terrible shooter and unfortunately, he likes to shoot. It's conceivable that adding a 40% shooter from the field can drop you .050 (example: .4650 to .4600), assuming they like to shoot. Obviously the reverse is true; except you need to add a .520 shooter to do the opposite. There is another piece to the percentage puzzle; and that's the amount a player shoots. The average player takes 11.1 shots per game from the field and 3.5 free throw attempts per game. Adding a player that shoots 40% per game and averages 5 shots per game is much different than adding a player who shoots 12 times a game. Fortunately, if they are that bad, they usually don't have a job, but some do exist of the waiver wire: Lou Williams 39% with 10.6 spg, JR Smith 43% with 11.1 spg, Daequan Cook with 38.5% and 9.2 spg. Be careful with these players as the downside risk on your percentages might not outweigh the benefit.

 

As always, give me your feedback and good luck!

Playoff Stretch Run

As we wind down the 2008-2009 NBA season, it's time to take a look at the upcoming Fantasy playoff schedule and how that might affect your chances of winning your league. The playoff schedule primarily affects head-to-head formats and the more consistent the player's schedule, the better your chances. The key is to avoid players on teams that play only two games in a week, particularly during the championship week. You also need to consider NBA teams that are fighting for a playoff spot as opposed to those teams that are completely out of it or can not improve their positions.

Now for the list…

 

Team	Week				Comments
	1	2	3	4
Philadelphia Sixers	4	4	4	4	The Sixers clearly have the best schedule throughout the playoffs as the key is consistency. They have the added advantage of fighting for a playoff spot. Speights could be a nice pickup. Consider trading for Iguodala for a star on a team with a bad playoff run (read Celtics).
Detroit Pistons	4	4	4	3	While the team is in disarray, they are still fighting for a playoff spot and there is talent there. Although, I'm not a big fan of Alan Iverson, he should have a nice run. Let's also hope that Rodney Stuckey gets it turned around.
New Orleans Hornets	4	3	4	4	The Hornets also have a nice run up into the playoffs and some fringe players like James Posey and Rasul Butler could help you with 3's. Owners of Chris Paul stand to benefit the most.
San Antonio Spurs	4	4	3	4	The Spurs rest their players a lot down the stretch, but their schedule is nice in the playoffs. With Ginobili down, Roger Mason is a great pickup down the stretch.
Orlando Magic	3	3	4	4	Great playoff schedule, but how much will they play? With Nelson there, maybe not a lot, but with the team trying to "gell" before the real playoffs, I think the Magic players will be very valuable. Consider trading for Turkoglu. If Alston is somehow on you're waiver wire, pick him up.
Los Angeles Lakers	3	4	4	4	The Lakers have a nice playoff run, but might not have a lot to play for the last two weeks of the season. That should boost the value of second tier players like Trevor Ariza.
Memphis Grizzles	4	3	4	4	Lousy team but a great playoff schedule. Oh well, consider Marc Gasol and Hakim Warrick. Also, if you're an owner of Mike Conley, you're in the cat bird seat as he should have a nice run during the playoffs.
New York Knicks	3	3	4	4	Fantasy Gold team with a nice playoff run. Consider trading for some of the Knick players: including Al Harrington and Nate Robinson. It should be a nice run.
Sacramento Kings	4	2	4	4	One of the bottom 3 defensive in the NBA, ok, the worse defensive in the league, should translate into a nice playoff run. Spencer Hawes and Jason Thompson are nice pickups.
Los Angeles Clippers	4	4	3	3	Team in constant turmoil but has a decent playoff schedule. I wouldn't trade for any Clipper but would watch the wires for a spot week for Jordan and Novak. If Baron Davis goes down, Mardy Collins is worth a look. Play Z-Bo and Kaman (if he comes back).
Portland Trail Blazers	4	3	3	4	Good schedule for the Trail Blazers. With Oden down, Pryzbilla will have value down the stretch and is worth a pickup if you're looking for rebounds and blocks.
Cleveland Cavs	4	3	4	3	Decent schedule but not a lot to play for, unless of course something happens to one of the big three on Boston and the number #1 seed is at stake. Delonte West to return shortly and should be owned on all teams.
Charlotte Bobcats	4	3	4	3	Lots to like from a Fantasy standpoint in Charlotte these days and with a favorable playoff schedule, consider adding Augustine if he gets the minutes down the stretch. Raja Bell and Boris Diaw should be owned in all leagues as with all other Bobcats starters.
Phoenix Suns	2	5	3	3	The first week is tough, so if you're a #1 seed playing a #4 or lower, you should be able to navigate the first week. Then you've got the blowout week #2. Be careful with this one as it could be a sucker bet, particularly with Stoudemire going down. I do like Grant Hill a lot now and he should be picked up.
Golden State Warriors	4	3	4	3	Play every Warrior, even the water boy!
Miami Heat	3	4	4	3	Might be playing for that #4 seed and home court advantage, plus incorporating O'Neal might be an incentive for Miami to play hard down the stretch. Nice playoff run.
New Jersey Nets	4	3	4	3	The Nets have nothing to play for and I'd worry about Vince Carter loosing interest. Although a nice schedule, consider moving Carter for Iguodola.
Minnesota Timberwolves	4	4	3	3	The double three is not great to end the season, but the double 4 to start the playoff is nice. The problem is there's not much to like in Minnesota, unless you are a Kevin Love fan. Consider trading for him as he should be great down the stretch.
Oklahoma Thunder	4	3	3	4	Nice playoff run, but outside of their big three, there's not much to like here.
Utah Jazz	2	3	5	3	Fighting for their playoff lives and the 5 game week in week 3, you've got to love it. As with the SUNS, this is a sucker play as you've got to make it through week #1. I still like it and you should consider trading for one of the starters down the stretch. Millsap will also not have much value once Boozer returns.
Atlanta Hawks	3	4	3	3	Not a great playoff schedule, so consider moving some of your Atlanta studs, including Joe Johnson and Josh Smith. In fact, if you own Josh Smith, you're probably out of it anyway as he, Shawn Marion, and Elton Brand are the poster boys for the worse Fantasy performers of the year.
Washington Wizards	4	4	3	2	Nice start to the playoffs, but the last week with only two games is a killer. Caron Butler might be shut down anyway, so he's the guy to move.
Dallas Mavericks	3	3	4	3	Ok schedule, but they will be fighting for their playoff lives. I'm not sure they will make it as Utah and Phoenix should pass them down the stretch.
Denver Nuggets	3	4	4	2	The two game week is not good to end the season, plus they won't catch the Lakers, so I don't know how hard they will play down the stretch. BIllups is use to a reduce workload and Nene looks tired to me. Consider moving some of your Nuggets.
Indiana Pacers	3	3	3	3	Playoff schedule is consistently "blah", but the Pacers are Fantasy Gold because of their lousy defense and need to score. Consider a pickup of Jarret Jack and Marquis Daniels as Dunleavy and Granger recover from injuries.
Toronto Raptors	3	3	3	4	A decent schedule, particularly during championship week. Watch out for Calderon continuing to miss time. If that happens, the pickup is Anthony Parker.
Chicago Bulls	3	5	2	3	Not a great schedule with a brutal 2 game week going into the championship week. I do worry about Rookie of Year candidate, Derrick Rose, tiring as the season heads down the stretch. The smart move is to try and trade Rose.
Houston Rockets	4	2	3	3	A pretty lousy playoff run. Consider trading your stud Rockets, particularly Yao Ming. Let's face it, you've gotten more out of Ming than you bargained for at the draft table and it's time to trade in on that value, particularly with the playoff schedule.
Boston Celtics	4	4	2	3	A terrible schedule for Fantasy owners of the Celtics. Also, you have to consider the Celtics will rest their starters to prepare for their playoffs. Since Fantasy Owners love name recognition, consider trading the big four. You read correctly, the big four, as Rondo might have the most value of any Celtic.
Milwaukee Bucks	2	3	4	2	I've pined for Ramon Sessions all season long and finally he got his chance, and boy did he take advantage. However, the Bucks have a terrible playoff run for Fantasy Owners and it's time to move Sessions, Charlie V, and any other Buck you can. Unless you're desperate, I think it'll be tough to start a Buck during those weeks where they only have two games.

Taking Advantages of Weak Defenses

The art of playing Fantasy Football is all about matchups. If you have the choice of playing a top 10 running back against the top rated run defense OR, playing a top 15 running back against the worse run defense, the smart play is to play the matchup. What I've always found odd is that most Fantasy Basketball owners never consider the opponents their players are competing against in setting their lineups. However, if you analysis the data, there are real advantages that can be made when playing against some of the defensive doormats of the NBA.

Table 1

Points Per Game
Golden State	111.0
Sacramento	109.0
Indiana	107.1
New York	106.6
Phoenix	103.3
Oklahoma City	103.2
Washington	102.4

The simplest way to exploit a bad defense is to look at the number of points a defense gives up every game. Golden State leads the way by giving up 111.0 points per game followed by Sacramento. How does this compare to the better defenses? The top two defenses, Cleveland and Boston give up 90.9 and 92.3, or an amazing difference of 20 points per game.

 

Field Goal Percentage (FG%)
Sacramento	.483
Washington	.480
New York	.477
Memphis	.474
Oklahoma City	.472
Minnesota	.470
Portland	.468

Table 2

While points per game is an important data point, it's not the most important stat in determining the quality of a defense. For instance, a team could have a run and gun offensive style that requires the opposing team to score more to keep up. While the chances of this team having a porous defense are high, we really need to consider FG% as the true indicator of a team's defensive ability. In crunching those numbers, Golden State and Phoenix fall out as two of the worse defensive teams in the league, while Sacramento and Washington move up. Combining Sacramento's opposing FG% with their ppg. allowed, it's clear that they are the worse defensive team in the league; and getting worse. Over the last 10 games, Sacramento has given up 115 points per game with a 51% field goal percentage. By the way, Washington isn't much better at 108 and 50.5%. Not convinced, look at these lines that some players had against Sacramento over the past month:

• Linas Klieza: 27 points on 11-27 shooting in 30 minutes
  
• Michael Redd: 44 points on 16-26 shooting in 39 minutes
  
• Eddie House: 28 points on 10-13 shooting in 20 minutes
  
• Mo Williams: 43 points on 15-24 shooting in 42 minutes
  
• Jason Richardson: 24 points on 10-12 shooting in 24 minutes
  

While the list above are decent players and in some cases good players, they are by no means the top NBA players. However, if the second and third tier players can put up these type of numbers, imagine what the top players are doing. I'll let you do that research, but take my word on it…it ain't good!

 

 

Perimeter defense

3 Point Percentage
Sacramento	.404
New Jersey	.395
Washington	.389
Portland	.384
Golden State	.383
Miami	.381
L.A. Clippers	.378

Table 3

When a Basketball analyst talks about a team having good perimeter defense, they are really talking about the team's ability to defend the outside shot. If you're like me, you're always looking for 3 pointers and therefore add three point specialist such as Roger Mason, J.R. Smith, and James Posey to your team for short burst of help. But how many times do those players disappoint? A lot; and that's why they are always on the waiver wire. However, you have a better chance of success if you take a look at those players in context of the teams they are playing in a given week. Table 3 shows the worse defenses against the three point shot. Surprise, look who's on top again! Compare these teams to the best defenses against the 3 point shot, Cleveland and Orlando at 33%. Quite a difference. As I did with points and FG%, let's take a look at some big games over the last month against Sacramento, New Jersey, and Washington.

• Mo Williams against Sacramento: 7 for 12
  
• Yukhouba Diawara against New Jersey: 5 for 8 (How about that one)
  
• Michael Redd against Sacramento: 6 for 9
  
• Steve Novak against Washington: 5 for 10
  

 

Turning to the point guard for assist

Assist Per Game (Apg.)
Washington	24.3
Golden State	23.9
L.A. Lakers	23.2
Toronto	23.0
L.A. Clippers	23.0
Philadelphia	22.1
Sacramento	22.0

There is a plethora of data on each statistical category and in due time, we'll cover all of them, but the final category for this article will be assist per game (apg). The best defensive teams in the league, Orlando, Cleveland, and Boston, give up on average 18-18.5 apg. Compare this to the two worse teams, Golden State and Washington and the difference is approximately 35%. In other words, a top point guard can expect to get 7 assist per game against Boston and 9.5-10 assist per game against Golden State. That's substantial. One surprising team on the list is the Lakers. With a team as good as the Lakers, you would assume their defense is stellar. However, it's good, but not great and might spell trouble for their hopes of a NBA Championship. With teams getting that many assist per game implies that their interior defense is suspect. Now with the loss of Andrew Bynum and no Rony Turiaf as an enforcer off the bench, I would be worried if I'm a Laker faithful.

Golden State appears again, and while some this can be explained by their RUN and GUN style, their interior defense is clearly a problem. It's one of the reasons why Ronny Turiaf's block shots stats are so stellar this year – point guards go unchecked into the paint. While he blocks his fair share, more times than not, the ball is kicked back out for a mid range jumper, and an assist results. Washington leads the list and it appears that their defense is just awful from top to bottom.

Review the defensive stats before setting your lineups

While Fantasy Owners should spend considerable time looking at Player Efficiency Ratings and injuries that might affect a players time on the court, it's also important to consider the opponents your players are competing against in a given week. If you're debating between two players and one of them has a back to back with Sacramento or Washington, you now have another data point to make that decision. By the way, if you haven't figured it out by now, play the guy with the back to back.

Visit FantasyHoopsGuru.com for this and other articles on Fantasy Basketball

Searching for breakout players

In Fantasy Sports, owners are always looking for young players who are about to emerge and become the next major contributor to their team. Given the more individualized nature of baseball, statisticians have become extremely adept at translating a baseball player's core statistics into overall success. For instance, if you analyze a pitcher's strikeout to walk ratio and see it trending to 3.0, you know that an ace is emerging, regardless of what their win/lose or ERA indicates. In Basketball, it's more complicated as the player has to function in a true team setting. For instance, you can't get an assist if somebody doesn't score; no matter how good the pass. You want to score, there's five guys trying to stop you and many of them…very TALL!

So, how do you find those players in Basketball that are good, but are in the wrong system, behind a stud player, or the coach simply won't play? Since most of us are not scouts, we instead turn to stats to help guide us. One stat that I've used effectively over the past few seasons to evaluate players is the Player Efficiency Rating (PER)

Here's the equation:

PER = ((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) - ((Field goals attempts - Field goals made) + (Free throws attempts - Free throws made) + Turnovers))

Basically, you add all the positives of your player: points, rebounds, assist, steals, blocks and subtract the negatives: missed shots, missed free throws and turnovers. This numeric result can then be used to rank how efficiently the player is while on the court. In fact, many Basketball GM's are using this equation as a standard to evaluate players.

 

The Fantasy Spin

Looking at players with the highest efficiency rating is interesting, but candidly, it's not all that useful for fantasy owners. The top PER players are Lebron James, Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, and Dwayne Wade. See what I mean? Everybody knows that! However, if we look at the Player Efficiency Rating on a per minute basis (PERm), interesting things start to emerge. Jameer Nelson moves from the 11^th most efficient PG to #2, behind CP3, Rajon Rondo moves from 10 to 4.

Extending the logic, we can start to look for those truly emerging talents by combining the PERm with the following:

1. Fantasy Ranking – How a player is ranked compared to other players on a per game basis. There are many formulas and subsequent list available, but I have developed my own that takes into account a lot of additional shooting stats such as number of FTA vs. league average. In this article, I'll be using those stats.
   
2. Player Opportunity – If your #2 in the depth chart behind Lebron James, it doesn't matter how good your PER, you're not going to get the minutes. That's not to say you ignore those players, but for this exercise, I've parked those players. Instead, I prefer to look at teams that might be out of the race and looking to RUN their younger players or trade veterans.
   
3. Age – I've done research that has shown over the past 30 years in the NBA, a player starts to become effective at age 22 and peaks at age 27, before a rapid decline in productivity. Stars have a longer career than fringe players, but the research is clear that an NBA player's career is short. To that end, I look at players from age 20-24 who could emerge.
   

Emerging Players

Hopefully I've peaked your interest or maybe you're skimming and just want to know the names of the players who might be great 2^nd half pickups or players to stash away on dynasty leagues. Whatever the reason, here's the list:

Kevin Love (Forward) – Minnesota - age 20 [Fantasy Rating (F Rating): 95 PERm: 25]

If you've been following this year's crop of rookies, Kevin Love started off slow but over the past month has been increasing in minutes and effectiveness. His PERm/FRating ratio for forwards is the largest of any player in the NBA. That's impressive. Plus, Love has the added advantage of playing on a team that, while having a nice run under Kevin McHale, is probably not going to challenge for a playoff spot, therefore, the minutes will be there. Love has a chance to be a superior rebounder while scoring between 15-18 points with plus FG and FT%.

Upside: 17 ppg and 12 rebounds – look a lot like David Lee

Brandan Wright (Forward) – Golden State – age 21 [F Rating: 81 PERm: 26]

I'll admit that Brandan Wright has been below my radar – no more! While currently out with a shoulder injury, Wright had the second highest PERm/FRating of forwards. He also has the advantage of playing in the Fantasy Basketball paradise of Golden State where RUNNING and GUNNING has become a verb. It's not time to pull the trigger on Wright, but have you finger on the trigger and watch his production closely; particularly his minutes. Remember, Golden State is likely out of the race and additional minutes for Wright once he returns for his injury should be there. Plus, Corey Maggette always gets hurt!

Ramon Sessions (Guard) – Milwaukee age 22 [F Rating: 79 PERm:29]

What's not to like? He can shoot, he's lightening quick, and posses great ball skills. Why Scott Skiles doesn't see this is beyond me. However, he's got his chance now with Michael Redd out and I'm confident that he will shine. He's a must pickup for dynasty leagues and a true sleeper for next year's draft. Just remember, you heard it here first.

Upside: 18 PPG and 10 assist per game

Roy Hibbert (Center) – Indiana age 22 [F Rating: 50 PERm:23]

Roy Who? Candidly, centers did not fare very well in this analysis, but Roy Hibbert of Indiana rose to the top. He's a first rounder from Georgetown and was part of the trade with Toronto for Jermaine O'Neil. He's young and raw but at 7' 2", is clearly a big body that Indiana could use in the middle. Keep a watch out for Hibbert as there might be something there.

Upside: 13 points, 8 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks

Lou Williams (Guard) Philadelphia age 22 [F Rating: 94 PERm:39]

Some pre-season hype for Williams quickly faded as he got out of the blocks slow. However, his PERm is strong and he's got some great skills as a shooting point guard. With opportunity, he could grow into Andre Miller with a better outside shot. If you hear discussions about an Andre Miller move, jump on it. If Andre Miller gets injured, jump on it!

Upside: 18 ppg, 7 assist, and 1.5+ 3 pointers

J.R. Smith (Guard) Denver age 23 [F Rating: 71 PERm:40]

Promise, promise, promise! Yeah I know what you're thinking, but the skills are there. What J.R. Smith lacks is consistency and that will come once his confidence is there. He's only 23 and a guy worth watching very closely, particularly as Denver gets closer to the end and needs a 3 pointer to put games away. Having Chauncey Billups tossing him the ball is also a huge plus. For those of you that have given up and are no longer believers, trust the data, they are real!

Jason Thompson (Forward) Sacramento – age 22 [F Rating: 86 PERm:50]

If you don't have Jason Thompson on your team, stop reading this and go make the move…NOW! The stars are aligning in Sacremento and Thompson is going to be a big beneficiary. He's got a nice game going with a strong inside presence. I'm a little disappointed in his lack of shot blocking ability, but the points, rebounds, and shooting percentages are there. Plus, he's starting and getting big minutes. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he's golden. Grab em now!

 

While mining data searching for emerging players is difficult in Fantasy Basketball, it's still possible by combining detailed research and intangible factors that all lead to playing time. Try using the Player Efficiency Rating as a tool to guide you evaluation process.